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ICT 2023 Mentorship Analysis \ January 25, 2023
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ICT 2023 Mentorship Analysis \ January 25, 2023

Weekly Review and Personal Updates

Overview of Current Situation

  • The speaker shares personal updates regarding unpacking and setting up their trading room, indicating a busy week ahead due to family commitments.
  • A promise is made to display a gift in the trading room once it is properly hung up.

Analysis of Dollar Index

Market Observations

  • The speaker anticipates lower prices for the Dollar Index, suggesting potential movement below significant levels, possibly reaching 101.
  • There is speculation about a large candle forming that could indicate a sustained decline in the dollar's value.

Euro-Dollar Dynamics

Liquidity and Price Movements

  • Discussion on the Euro-Dollar chart highlights recent price movements towards buy-side liquidity, with expectations of further upward movement if certain thresholds are met.
  • A critical level identified is the midpoint of a down closed candle; trading below this would suggest a shift towards equilibrium-type short-term discounts.

Pound-Dollar Outlook

Bullish Sentiment

  • The speaker expresses bullish sentiment on Pound-Dollar unless specific lows are breached, indicating confidence in upward price action towards 125 even big figure.
  • Mentioned liquidity pools around 126.67 as potential targets for price movement if conditions remain favorable.

NASDAQ Technical Analysis

Key Levels and Gaps

  • Analyzing NASDAQ charts reveals key resistance at 12,339; Wicks are described as gaps that need to be addressed by market algorithms.
  • Distinction between order block theory and gap theory is emphasized, noting their similarities and differences in market analysis approaches.

Trading Patterns and Predictions

Market Behavior Insights

  • The discussion includes observations on bullish order blocks formed by two down closed candles, highlighting areas where price may react favorably for buyers.
  • Anticipation of price movements into specific levels (e.g., 12,149), with caution advised against trusting patterns that appear too predictable or manipulated by market forces.

Short-Term Trading Strategies

Imbalances and Support Levels

  • Examination of hourly charts shows imbalances that traders should monitor closely for potential support or resistance levels as trades develop into the next day’s session.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Chart Analysis and Market Structure

  • The transition from a 60-minute chart to a 15-minute chart shows market reactions, indicating potential trading opportunities based on high-low patterns.
  • Observations of price action suggest the importance of respecting balanced price ranges for future trades.
  • Acknowledges that if the market breaks above certain levels, daily chart targets become achievable; otherwise, sideways movement is expected without significant sell-offs.

Imbalance and Order Blocks

  • Discussion on imbalances in the market highlights how they can affect trading decisions, particularly referencing the ES (E-mini S&P).
  • The analysis emphasizes bullish order blocks as critical points where price reacts positively after hitting specific levels.

Detailed Price Action Insights

  • Focuses on how prices interact with fair value gaps and order blocks, illustrating their significance in determining market direction.
  • Highlights shifts in market structure when prices trade into bullish breakers, suggesting potential support areas for traders.

Mitigation Concepts

  • Clarifies the concept of mitigation in trading—it's about traders adjusting their positions rather than just referring to order blocks or candles as mitigating factors.
  • Emphasizes that mitigation involves managing offside positions effectively to limit losses or eliminate them entirely.

Institutional Order Flow and Market Dynamics

  • Discusses how institutional order flow influences price movements and highlights key candle formations that indicate potential reversals or continuations.
  • Analyzes how different time frames impact trading strategies, especially during significant sessions like New York launch times.

Market Analysis and Trading Insights

Key Levels and Market Behavior

  • The importance of high levels in daily charts is emphasized, particularly the consequent encroachment of specific wicks at 41.17 and 4072.75, indicating significant market points.
  • Traders often expect sell-offs; however, recent market behavior showed a rally that targeted buy-side liquidity, contrary to common expectations discussed on social media platforms.
  • The concept of an "inside day" is introduced, where the current day's high is lower than the previous day's high and its low is higher than the previous day's low, suggesting potential for a large range day ahead.

Understanding Imbalances and Fair Value Gaps

  • A focus on buy-side imbalances indicates areas where price efficiency can be observed; these are framed by candle highs and lows which guide trading decisions.
  • The narrative around higher time frames is crucial as algorithms reference these levels; understanding this context helps traders navigate lower time frame movements effectively.

Trading Strategies Based on Market Structure

  • Observations about resting liquidity below relative equal lows suggest potential market reactions; traders should note how imbalances react in different portions of fair value gaps.
  • When bullish, it’s essential to monitor reactions within the upper portion of larger imbalances; trading down into these levels can create inversions that confuse many traders.

Navigating Market Dynamics

  • Some imbalances are likely to remain open while others should ideally be filled; understanding this distinction aids in making informed trading decisions based on market structure.
  • Recognizing scenarios where certain trades appear more favorable allows for strategic entries even when prices seem to drop sharply.

Intricate Relationships Between Time Frames

  • Analyzing ranges from equilibrium points reveals discounts that inform trading strategies across various time frames; clarity in this web of relationships enhances decision-making.

Market Analysis and Trading Insights

Understanding Market Dynamics

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding market behavior, warning against actions that may harm others in trading.
  • A 15-minute timeframe analysis shows a drop below a key level, indicating respect for resistance and support levels within the market.
  • Discussion on price action reveals how certain areas act as balanced price ranges, highlighting the significance of consequent encroachment in trading decisions.

Price Action and Fair Value Gaps

  • The speaker describes observing market movements while multitasking, noting a fair value gap that was created during consolidation before a rally.
  • Commentary on live streams suggests an engaging atmosphere where unexpected insights are shared, particularly when personal moments occur.
  • Transitioning to a five-minute chart analysis, the focus is on avoiding trades below specific efficiency zones to maintain bullish sentiment.

Learning from Market Patterns

  • The speaker encourages viewers to revisit earlier parts of the video for better comprehension of lower time frames and their implications on trading strategies.
  • Emphasis is placed on understanding algorithmic trading patterns rather than traditional supply and demand concepts; recognizing key price points is crucial.
  • The complexity of market behavior necessitates repeated learning; not all scenarios can be taught due to their intricate nature influenced by various factors at play.

Sentiment Shifts and Market Reactions

  • Acknowledgment that traders must adapt to changing market conditions based on day-of-the-week dynamics and other influencing factors for effective strategy development.
  • The speaker reflects on their commitment to sharing knowledge with viewers while acknowledging limitations in what can be conveyed publicly versus privately with family members.

Key Candle Patterns and Resistance Levels

  • Analysis of specific candle formations indicates how markets react at critical levels; this includes identifying short-term highs following significant rallies.
  • Observations about order block behaviors suggest potential resistance points as markets transition through different phases of movement.

Market Analysis and Trading Insights

Observations on Market Sentiment

  • The speaker notes that many live streamers were optimistic about the market rising, which led him to feel confident in selling off his position.

Position Management and Strategy

  • He discusses building a larger position as the market declined, utilizing various analytical tools like Fibonacci extensions to inform his trading decisions.

Market Structure and Shifts

  • The speaker highlights a significant market rally but emphasizes that a shift in market structure does not require closing above previous highs or below lows, countering common misconceptions.

Misconceptions in Trading Education

  • He criticizes "dollar menu mentorships" for spreading misinformation, stressing the importance of learning from experienced traders who understand when strategies are effective.

Trade Execution and Analysis

  • The speaker reflects on executing trades based on observed price action, noting specific levels where he anticipated movements and encouraging viewers to analyze their charts for similar patterns.

Understanding Price Action Dynamics

Key Candle Patterns

  • He points out a specific candle pattern on a one-minute chart that serves as an important indicator for traders to observe during their analysis.

Liquidity Levels and Targets

  • The discussion includes targeting short-term highs for liquidity opportunities, emphasizing how these levels can yield substantial returns if identified correctly.

Real-Time Trading Experience

  • The speaker shares his experience of monitoring price action through limited visual means (his phone), illustrating the challenges faced by traders during volatile periods.

The Importance of Active Learning

Engaging with Chart Analysis

  • He stresses that passive viewing of educational content is insufficient; active engagement with personal charts is crucial for understanding market dynamics effectively.

Commitment to Continuous Learning

  • The speaker underscores the necessity of recording price movements and studying them diligently, especially for those unable to trade live due to other commitments.

Final Thoughts on Market Trends

Order Block Strategies

  • Discussion around order block trades indicates strategic entry points based on significant price actions observed throughout trading hours.

Closing Remarks

Playlists: 2023 ICT Mentorship
Video description

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.