VIDEO
HIGHLIGHT
Log InSign up
April 11, 2023 Live Tape Reading - Emini S&P AM Session
SummaryTranscriptChat

April 11, 2023 Live Tape Reading - Emini S&P AM Session

Introduction

The speaker greets the audience and introduces himself. He talks about his holiday and expresses his bullish stance on ES.

  • The speaker greets the audience and asks how they are doing.
  • He talks about his holiday and wishes happy Resurrection Day to those in the same faith as him.
  • The speaker expresses his bullish stance on ES and mentions a volume imbalance.

Market Analysis

The speaker analyzes the market using charts, focusing on the weekly chart and present contract.

Weekly Chart

  • The previous week's low is watched for a sweep below it to look towards 4180.
  • A bullish stance is maintained on ES with a possibility of poking above this high here.

Present Contract

  • The area up here has the speaker's interest, which is basically what he was drawing attention to on the continuous contract.
  • Monday's high is mentioned, and if we can trade above it, how we trade above it is influential to what he sees going forward into tomorrow's FMC price action.

Bread-and-butter Setups

The speaker discusses bread-and-butter setups that are easy to get in and out of quickly.

  • Small range day expected with bread-and-butter type setups being ideal for today's trading session.
  • Stop trading after getting five handles instead of trying to marry an idea all day long because of more impactful news events later in the week on Wednesday and Thursday.

60 Minute Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the 60-minute chart, focusing on levels and imbalances.

  • The order block is used to trade up into this city.
  • We're inside of a larger range on the daily chart, making it difficult to predict which side of the marketplace will settle in.

Trading Strategy Overview

The speaker discusses their trading strategy and how they approach the market.

Focusing on 10-11am Setup

  • Speaker wants to focus on the 10 o'clock to 11 o'clock setup.
  • Looking for opportunities that build confidence.

High Probability Trades

  • Speaker defines high probability trades as those where there is no way to frame the other side of the trade using their methods.
  • Encourages traders to identify these conditions and filter out less ideal opportunities.

Four Hour Chart Analysis

  • Speaker analyzes the four hour chart, noting that yesterday's low was not taken out.
  • Would have been confident in a long position if it had gone down clean and then worked towards going higher.

Observing Imbalances and New Week Opening Gaps

In this section, the speaker discusses imbalances and new week opening gaps in the market. They explain how they observe these gaps and why they choose to filter out certain data.

Imbalance Observation

  • The speaker likes the down closed candle and notes that there was buy side trading before a shift lower.
  • They point out an imbalance between a high and low on the chart, which they will explore further on a lower time frame.

New Week Opening Gap Observation

  • The speaker shows an hourly chart with new week opening gaps marked by thick black lines.
  • They note that there was a shortened trading hour schedule last Friday due to a holiday, which impacted the new week opening gap.
  • The speaker explains that they use the closest new week opening gap in the last 60 days if there is uncertainty due to holidays or other factors.
  • They also mention their use of Asian range from a previous Friday for Monday's trading.

Lower Time Frame Exploration

  • The speaker drops into a 15-minute chart to explore the imbalance further.
  • They show a gray area representing the current new week opening gap and explain why they chose to mark it as such.
  • The speaker emphasizes their preference for using data based on actual market normal times rather than relying on holiday schedules.

Introduction

The speaker introduces the session and explains how he will be analyzing the market.

Opening Session

  • The opening session on New York starts at 9:30 AM, which is an impactful time.
  • The speaker aims to analyze the market within a 15-minute timeframe.
  • He uses a refined five-minute chart to avoid cluttering his chart with too many indicators.

Analyzing Higher Time Frames

The speaker discusses how he analyzes higher time frames and why he prefers using a clean chart.

Fair Value Guys

  • When looking at higher time frames such as four-hour and hourly charts, none of the fair value guys lined up with the actual high and low.
  • To keep his chart clean, the speaker only includes indicators that are relevant to his analysis.

Refining Analysis with Five-Minute Chart

The speaker explains how he refines his analysis using a five-minute chart.

Using Five-Minute Chart

  • The speaker uses a refined five-minute chart to focus on what the market will reach for in terms of imbalance or rebalance.
  • He does not worry about having the highest high or lowest low for larger ranges because he wants to focus on core imbalances.

Market Analysis

The speaker provides an analysis of the market based on recent price movements.

Recent Price Movements

  • There was a little bit of volatility in the market, with prices breaking lower after trading at resistance levels.
  • Despite this, there was no respect for new equipment for this week, indicating that there may be other factors impacting trading sessions.
  • If there is an impact from holidays or other factors that cause markets not to have full trading sessions, the speaker will use a specific protocol to filter out when to use certain tools.

Using Specific Tools

The speaker discusses the importance of using specific tools and protocols when analyzing the market.

Importance of Protocols

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of having protocols for using specific tools and filters.
  • He explains that while he has many tools at his disposal, it is not complicated once you understand the rules and when to reach for certain things.

Analyzing Other Indices

The speaker provides an analysis of other indices in addition to ES.

NASDAQ vs. Dow

  • NASDAQ is relatively weaker compared to Dow, with a much weaker delivery.
  • While Dow is stronger, it only consists of 30 stocks compared to NASDAQ's 100 stocks.

Volume Imbalance Analysis

The speaker explains how he analyzes volume imbalances in the market.

Volume Imbalance Concept

  • The speaker uses volume imbalance as a concept for analyzing the market.
  • He looks for candles that lay across a range completely over top of high and low points, which indicates that there is volume in balance.
  • As long as there is no body laid across this range, it will always act like a magnet.

Trading Strategy Insights

In this section, the speaker shares insights into his trading strategy and how he uses charting to make decisions.

Charting Strategy

  • The speaker keeps a chart open as long as there is no body laid across it. Once a body is laid across it, the chart is removed.
  • The speaker looks for volume of balance on the highest timeframe and refers to that as the parent. Anything below that would be subordinate.
  • The speaker's PD arrays have specific characteristics that need to be understood before they can be taught.

Market Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes the market and discusses potential trade opportunities.

Sell Side Looks Juicy

  • The sell side looks really juicy but not necessarily a crashing down day.
  • To change direction, price needs to get above the new week opening Gap High at 4140.5.
  • As long as price remains below that level, expect price to gravitate towards 4132.75.

Fair Value Gap Swing Low

  • There is a potential fair value gap swing low which could react with an order block at 4132.75.

Dollar Index Analysis

  • On the five-minute chart, we are trading inside of a fair value gap on the 10 o'clock candle.
  • This is concerning because ultimately, we want to see dollar go lower and ES go higher.
  • Looking for a swept rejection and then trying to move higher.

Trading Strategies for New Students

In this section, the speaker discusses his teaching approach for new students and what makes a good range.

Teaching Approach for New Students

  • Speaker teaches death as a very low hanging fruit objective for new students.
  • Speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding specific characteristics of PD arrays before they can be taught.

What Makes a Good Range

  • A good range is one that is very easy and objective to strive for as a new student learning what the speaker is teaching.

The Importance of Finding Five Handles

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of finding five handles and how it builds confidence in trading.

Characteristics of Five Handles

  • Five handles is a small threshold objective that can be repeated.
  • There are many opportunities for five handles to appear throughout the day.
  • It's important to understand the rules when trading during lunch hour.

Framing Trades for 10 Handles

  • A trade must offer 10 handles to be considered viable.
  • This allows for a little bit of wiggle room and cushion for not getting the best entry or exit.
  • New traders should observe trades that don't meet this criteria rather than trying to execute them.

Unrealistic Expectations

  • New traders often have unrealistic expectations of themselves, such as executing Olympic-sized feats with no losses and very small stop losses with big R multiples.
  • The speaker believes that new traders should not strive for these goals because they are impractical and take a long time to achieve.
  • Discipline and self-control are necessary before attempting high-risk trades.

Difficulty Holding on to Winning Trades

In this section, the speaker discusses how difficult it can be to hold on to winning trades, especially when new traders focus too much on profit instead of price.

Unrealistic Expectations Continued

  • Even when new traders see profit, it can be hard to hold on to winning trades because they watch the number fluctuate up and down.
  • The speaker advises new traders to focus on exercising discipline and self-control before attempting high-risk trades.

Understanding the 10 Handle Filter

In this section, the speaker explains the concept of the 10 handle filter and how it can be used to identify profitable trades.

The 10 Handle Filter

  • The 10 handle filter is a baseline that helps traders identify profitable trades.
  • Traders should aim for a price move that offers at least 10 handles in the beginning, as it allows for forgiveness in entering and exiting a trade.
  • Traders should look for setups that are likely to move at least 10 handles. If targets don't offer this opportunity, then it's not worth taking the trade.
  • Having a filter like this removes the likelihood of taking trades that are not likely to pan out. It also provides a framework for traders to operate within.

Holding on to Trades

  • Traders need to learn how to hold on to trades while they're going against them and draw down. This is important because trades won't always run into profit immediately after entry.
  • Uncertainty and doubt are common when starting out, but traders need to grow through these emotions.
  • Rules and protocols are necessary in trading because they provide discipline and self-control. Without these characteristics, traders will lose money.

Importance of Context

  • Context is important when identifying profitable trades. Traders should look for setups that fit within a larger context or framework.
  • Rules and frameworks help traders understand what price is likely to do, providing them with more confidence in their decisions.

Introduction

The speaker talks about the importance of staying focused and not getting distracted while learning.

Staying Focused

  • It's important to stay focused on what you're supposed to be doing.
  • People who want to learn are able to focus and take in good information.

Market Analysis

The speaker analyzes the market and discusses how price action can fluctuate.

Market Fluctuations

  • The current price is at a low point for the week's new week opening gap.
  • There is buy side activity, but everything is stagnant.
  • Price action can fluctuate, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a good trade opportunity.

Trading Criteria

The speaker discusses his trading criteria and expectations for trades.

Trading Expectations

  • Trades must meet specific criteria before he considers them.
  • He removes unnecessary elements from his charts to focus on specific reference points.
  • He prefers not to see a new week opening gap framed when there's a holiday, but if it does happen, he wants price to stay above the low or new week opening gap.

Price Interpretation

The speaker explains how he interprets price action using reference points.

Interpreting Price Action

  • He uses reference points to interpret price action and identify potential trade opportunities.
  • He wants to see a fair value gap form and set the stage for a potential run above the high.

Accuracy and Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker talks about accuracy and trading strategies.

Accuracy

  • The speaker asks to be called out if he says something inaccurate.
  • He requests evidence if someone claims that he is not accurate.
  • The speaker admits that he does not have a definitive opinion on where the market is going at present.

Trading Strategies

  • The speaker discusses how everything in the market is currently decoupled, making trading more difficult.
  • He explains what a balanced price range is and how it differs from supply and demand.
  • The speaker notes that there isn't much directional bias from the dollar at present.
  • He presents an example of insignificant price movement and emphasizes that it's important not to feel regret or fear of missing out when there are no high probability trades.

Price Action Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes price action in detail.

Balanced Price Range

  • The speaker explains what a balanced price range is and how it can affect trading decisions.
  • He notes that there isn't anything significant standing out in the current price action except for one imbalance.
  • The speaker provides a potential target for downside acceleration but doesn't think it will likely happen.

Analyzing Price Action

  • The speaker asks viewers to analyze current price action and determine whether they see any high probability trades based on their understanding of price action.
  • He emphasizes that nothing in the current price movement warrants taking a trade.

Trading Strategies and Market Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of avoiding trading in conditions that are 50/50 and shares his own experience of blowing accounts. He also talks about finding opportunities where he blew accounts and how it created fear and doubts.

Avoiding 50/50 Conditions

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of avoiding trading in conditions that are 50/50.
  • Many traders go against good advice and trade in these conditions, leading to losses or major drawdowns.
  • The speaker shares his own experience as a young trader who blew accounts by trading in such conditions.

Finding Opportunities

  • The speaker talks about finding opportunities where he blew accounts, which created fear and doubts.
  • He emphasizes the need to focus on what to look for in charts rather than worrying about fears and doubts.
  • The speaker mentions that there is no Silver Bullet trade yet but teaches that there is usually a fair day form between 10 o'clock and 11 o'clock.

Market Analysis

  • Liquidity has been extended to a certain point, making it unlikely for sell-side liquidity to be found above a certain high.
  • If we press lower into the low layer, we could dig into an imbalance.
  • The speaker takes a quick look at NASDAQ before going back to ES.

Swing Projection

  • The speaker cycles through time frames before showing swing projection using FIB levels.
  • He uses a fulcrum point as a door hinge and expects shorts to take profits every time a new low is formed.
  • The speaker shows how the swing projection takes us down to a negative one standard deviation.

ES Analysis

  • The speaker pulls up a two-minute chart and annotates the new low, expecting shorts to take profits every time we break to new lows.
  • He uses running down equity and expects any shorts in the area to take profits.

Understanding Price Behavior

In this section, the speaker discusses how to interpret price behavior and what to look for in order to make informed trading decisions.

Key Points:

  • The speaker points out a specific price level that traders should be aware of.
  • The speaker notes that the current market conditions are chaotic.
  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of seeing a low get completely "smoked" before making any trades.
  • The speaker explains why he doesn't use certain patterns or frameworks when analyzing price behavior.

Trading Strategies

In this section, the speaker discusses his approach to trading and shares some strategies that he has found to be effective.

Key Points:

  • The speaker explains how he looks for opportunities where he expects price to behave in a specific way.
  • The speaker discusses how different averages can affect trading decisions.
  • The speaker explains why he prefers trading through ES rather than other indices like Dow Jones.
  • The speaker talks about how retracements can make traders uncomfortable and advises them to extend their ranges accordingly.

Analyzing Market Conditions

In this section, the speaker provides insights into how traders can analyze market conditions and make informed decisions based on those analyses.

Key Points:

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of speed and distance when looking at market movements.
  • The speaker explains why he doesn't expect a low to perform in a certain way if it hasn't been traded before.
  • The speaker discusses how he internalizes price being delivered and what that means for his trading decisions.
  • The speaker talks about the importance of market breath and how it can affect the continuation of a specific price run.

Using the Dow to Analyze NASDAQ

In this section, the speaker discusses how they use the Dow to analyze the NASDAQ and make trading decisions.

Analyzing Low Points

  • The speaker suggests taking profits in Advantage or Target when trading on the NASDAQ.
  • They explain that if a low point is taken out aggressively with speed and distance, it could lead to an accelerated down move in ES and NASDAQ.
  • The speaker advises traders to be leery of a low being taken out if there has already been a run on cell stops.

Understanding Inter-Market Relationships

In this section, the speaker explains how they weigh out inter-market relationships between different indices.

Weighing Out Relationships

  • The speaker emphasizes that they primarily focus on price action in ES, down in NASDAQ, and sometimes the Dow.
  • They explain that they derive information from using the Dow but it doesn't need to be the Dow that had performed this very thing.
  • The speaker advises traders to take partial profits along the way as it always pays off.

Importance of Taking Partial Profits

In this section, the speaker emphasizes why taking partial profits is important for traders.

Benefits of Taking Partial Profits

  • The speaker explains that partial profits pay every single time and are 100% accurate in profitability.
  • They advise traders not to trade for getting the best exit or entry every single time because it's unobtainable.
  • Instead, traders should focus on taking something off in profit as it's why they're trading.

Trading Strategies and Taking Partials

In this section, the speaker discusses his trading strategies and why he takes partials instead of waiting for his full target to be reached.

Importance of Partial Trades

  • The speaker explains that if he doesn't have a clear objective, he may decide to do nothing or just observe the tape read.
  • He records his executions and speeds them up inside a two-minute and 15-second limit that Twitter places on him. He condenses all that stuff but viewers don't understand many times why he's taking partials.
  • The speaker shows how he would use information from the Dow to determine when to take partial trades. He explains that even though ES is getting close to his objective, it's expanding lower because the Dow hasn't careened right through its old low.
  • The speaker advises against holding for your target and not taking partials. He prefers being in trades with low resistance liquidity runs where it's easy and just runs right from his objectives.

Specific Model vs. Logic

  • The speaker explains that while the logic of what he teaches is there every day, your specific model may not be there on a particular asset or session.
  • He warns against having too many markets as it scatters attention. Instead, focus on one or two closely correlated markets like NASDAQ and ES or British pound in Euro dollar when trading Forex.

Importance of Taking Partials

  • The speaker argues against those who promote "don't take partials" logic. He believes it places too much demand on performance when you don't have experience in the beginning.
  • He advises taking partials as the little reward many times is the thing that carries you through the times when learning how to trade.
  • The speaker believes that not taking partials and hoping for your full target or getting stopped out is too myopic. It's better to take something off if it gives you a reward, even if it's just a small profit.

Conclusion

  • The speaker concludes by stating that price actions like this are what his tools and teachings teach traders how to find.

Sticking to a Logic that Works Well in the Right Market Conditions

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of sticking to a logic that works well in the right market conditions. He explains how chasing big moves can lead to tailspins and why it's important to have a reason for pushing a button.

Importance of Having a Reason for Pushing a Button

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a reason for pushing a button.
  • He warns that not having a reason would be equivalent to gambling.

Sticking to Logic That Works Well in Right Market Conditions

  • The speaker stresses on sticking to logic that works well in the right market conditions.
  • He uses examples from NASDAQ and ES markets to explain how sticking to logic can help avoid losses.
  • The speaker explains how clearing out South Side on Dow indicates sustained price run lower on ES.

Protecting Short Position with Buy Stop

In this section, the speaker talks about protecting short positions with buy stops. He explains how shorts use buy stops and what kind of stops are resting above highs.

Protecting Short Position with Buy Stop

  • The speaker explains how shorts protect their position with buy stop.
  • He warns that all this run up is setting stage for ram above which is problematic for ES moving lower.

Stops Resting Above Highs

  • The speaker points out what kind of stops are resting above highs.
  • He identifies an imbalance and explains how it should have gone right there if the market was in symmetrical perfect condition.

Knowing When a Target's Not Going to Get There

In this section, the speaker talks about how to know when a target is not going to get there. He emphasizes the importance of taking partials and reducing stops.

Importance of Taking Partials

  • The speaker stresses on taking partials as it's careening into your target.
  • He explains how taking partial reduces stop and helps avoid regret when the market trades against you.

Knowing When a Target's Not Going to Get There

  • The speaker talks about how to know when a target is not going to get there.
  • He warns that reducing stop before taking partial is a hard thing for new traders and emphasizes learning what he teaches to avoid such conditions.

Understanding Symmetrical Markets

In this section, the speaker explains what a symmetrical market is and why it's important to understand it.

What is a Symmetrical Market?

  • A symmetrical market is where the dollar is going higher and the NASDAQ, Dow, and Es are moving lower.
  • It's characterized by price runs that are disjointed and not consolidated.
  • The speaker advises taking note of these conditions in your journal.

Why Understanding Symmetrical Markets Matters

  • In a symmetrical market, there's a risk-off scenario where all indices move in the same direction.
  • Price inefficiencies are respected in such markets.
  • The speaker warns against trading in such conditions as they can be problematic for inexperienced traders.

The Importance of Patience and Self-Control

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of patience and self-control when trading.

Don't Be a Victim of Your Emotions

  • As a new trader, you may feel like your entire career rests on the outcome of your next trade.
  • However, experienced traders know that maturity comes with waiting for better conditions to trade in.
  • The speaker advises learning how to read price action naked instead of relying on indicators.

Building Skill Sets

  • Building discipline and self-control are essential skill sets for successful trading.
  • These skills come from doing what we're doing here - observing without pushing any buttons or making any trades.
  • The speaker stresses that learning how to read price action is much more reassuring than relying on indicators.

Reading Price Action Naked

In this section, the speaker explains why reading price action naked is a valuable skill for traders.

The Logic Behind Price Action

  • Reading price action naked involves understanding the logic behind it.
  • It's about knowing why price should do certain things and when it shouldn't.
  • The speaker promises that learning this skill is much more reassuring than relying on indicators.

Knowing the Climate

  • Knowing whether the market is likely to pan out and have a nice run requires a specific skill set.
  • This skill set is not taught by anyone else, according to the speaker.
  • He warns against relying on gimmicks or indicators to get into trades.

Trading in Tough Market Conditions

In this section, the speaker discusses how to trade in tough market conditions and emphasizes the importance of understanding oneself as a trader.

Importance of Entry Point and Market Direction

  • The speaker asks whether entry point or market direction matters more.
  • Using a framework that allows for enough range is important.
  • Focusing on a 10 handle run as the framework for trading, even if only trying to get five handles, allows for forgiveness in one's infancy as a trader.

Learning from Tough Market Conditions

  • Tough market conditions teach traders about themselves and what things will be problematic in their trading.
  • Impatience, imposing one's will, forcing something that isn't there, chasing price once it starts moving are all things to avoid.
  • Exercising patience and discipline is key in these market environments.
  • Watching price action without any monetary connection helps determine what one's psychology about what they're seeing is telling them.

Discovering One's Self as a Trader

  • Recognizing internal feelings such as impatience, impulsiveness, gambling, chasing price is crucial before putting money at risk.
  • Coping mechanisms need to be learned to overcome negative traits and replace them with positive ones.
  • Every losing trade has one common denominator: the trader did it. They pushed themselves into a trade they knew probably wouldn't work but lacked courage, discipline, and self-control to stop.

Finding Where Your Problems Are

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that finding where your problems are is essential for successful trading.

Distracting Factors

  • Reading books written by others or buying courses or using indicator-based strategies can distract traders from finding where their problems lie.

Internal Factors

  • All problems are internal; every losing trade has one common denominator: the trader.
  • Traders need to discover who they are and how they will derail themselves.

Overcoming Negative Traits

  • Coping mechanisms need to be learned to overcome negative traits and replace them with positive ones.
  • Consistent profitability cannot be achieved without discovering oneself as a trader.

Lessons Learned from Live Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses lessons learned from live trading and how they cannot be effectively communicated in a book format.

Importance of Real-Time Learning

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of real-time learning in trading.
  • He explains how he teaches his students to take partial profits and reduce risk without moving stop losses.
  • The speaker shares his experience as a 20-year-old trader who struggled with taking losses and reducing position sizes.
  • He highlights that these types of lessons cannot be taught effectively through books or courses.

Live Trading Examples

  • The speaker uses live trading examples to teach important concepts that cannot be learned from books.
  • He shows how to identify warning signs and manage trades based on support and resistance levels.
  • The speaker explains how to treat inversion fair value gaps as support/resistance levels.
  • He demonstrates how to take partial profits based on warning signs in the market.

Importance of Studying Price Action

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of studying price action and how it can help traders gain valuable insights.

Benefits of Studying Price Action

  • Studying price action provides valuable insights that cannot be gained from reading books or chapters.
  • Watching price action helps traders understand the things that are problematic to their trades and why they occur.
  • Everyone goes through similar experiences as a developing student of price action or trader, and studying real-time charts is the best way to learn.
  • Traders should spend time in front of charts, watching how price paints, studying time references, where setups form, where it turns, how far it goes, where it gravitates to, and where liquidity is drawn in.

Impactful Factors for Trading

  • The drawdown after a formation occurs for your entry is impactful because you're going to see when I show a trade example.
  • Candlesticks allow traders to focus on the context of what prices do in the internal dialogue shared with them in real-time.
  • Studying without pushing a button allows traders to invest in themselves and reward themselves with experience that they can't get any other way.

Identifying Problems in Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses how traders can identify problems in their trading by analyzing their reactions to market movements.

Analyzing Reactions to Market Movements

  • Traders need to analyze their reactions to market movements and identify what's showing them something about themselves.
  • Traders need to ask themselves if they're mad about what has happened today or angry that it didn't do a specific thing.
  • The problem is not with the concepts or logic of trading, but with how traders use the information presented to them.
  • Traders need to follow the rules and context presented to them and avoid condensing their strategies into a five-minute timeframe.

Importance of Endurance in Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of endurance in trading and how it can help traders succeed.

Importance of Endurance

  • Weak-minded individuals quit when there's no button being pushed, but those who endure are the ones who succeed.
  • Enduring through mentorship programs helps traders gain valuable experience that they can't get any other way.

Importance of Changing Mindset

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of changing one's mindset to become a successful trader.

Enduring Difficulties

  • The speaker explains that traders who are not fast and quick will be treated like trash and taken out in the bin.
  • He shares his experience of enduring difficulties and how he had to change his mindset to become successful.
  • The speaker highlights that identifying things that repeat themselves in price action is crucial for success.

Letting Go of Ideas

  • The speaker talks about the importance of letting go of an idea if it does not work out as expected.
  • He warns against forcing trades based on one's expectations, which can lead to severe drawdown or blown accounts.

Minimizing Scar Tissue

  • The speaker emphasizes the need to minimize scar tissue in the beginning by learning through demo trading.
  • He notes that pride can often get in the way of pain-free learning for men.

Analyzing Price Action

In this section, the speaker analyzes a day's price action and explains what makes a high probability low-risk trade.

Understanding Price Action

  • The speaker points out that fluctuation in price is normal but not enough to make a high probability low-risk trade.
  • He asks what screams at you from price action that would make you take a trade with strong convictions and no fear.

Avoiding Static Analysis

  • The speaker cautions against using static screenshots to analyze price action and instead encourages students to write their own observations and notes.
  • He emphasizes that learning what not to do is just as important as learning what to do.

Conclusion

In this section, the speaker concludes by encouraging those who are still listening to continue learning and understanding the concepts he has shared.

Continuing Learning

  • The speaker acknowledges that some listeners may have found the content boring but encourages those who are still listening to continue learning.
  • He notes that those who are still listening have what it takes to learn and become successful traders.

Trading Should Not Be an Adrenaline Rush

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that trading should not be treated as an adrenaline rush. Instead, traders should have procedures in place and understand what they are doing and why they are responding to the market.

Trading is Not an Adrenaline Rush

  • Trading should not be an adrenaline rush.
  • Traders need to have procedures in place and understand what they are doing.
  • Traders should respond to the market, not react to price.
  • Traders anticipate specific things and do not chase price.

Impatience Can Lead to Poor Decisions

In this section, the speaker warns against impatience when trading. He explains that impatience can lead traders to see things in charts that aren't there and force trades based on their will rather than sound logic.

Impatience Leads to Poor Decisions

  • Impatience can lead traders to see things in charts that aren't there.
  • Traders may force trades based on their will rather than sound logic.
  • This can result in negative experiences that replace useful information with a loss.
  • Traders must avoid imposing their will and remain patient for sound opportunities.

Watching Dollar Index Behavior

In this section, the speaker discusses his observations of the dollar index's buy side behavior around 102.22. He also notes that Euro and Cable have marked time without much movement.

Observations of Dollar Index Behavior

  • The dollar index has buy side resting around 102.22.
  • The speaker is watching how it behaves above this level.
  • Euro and Cable have marked time without much movement today.
  • The low of the new week opening gap is at 4137, and the speaker is watching for encroachment between the two.

Introduction

The speaker discusses a new week opening gap and why they would not use it in their analysis. They also discuss the preferred method of analysis.

New Week Opening Gap

  • The speaker is not in favor of using the new week opening gap in their analysis.
  • They prefer using 4150.5 and 4137 even for their analysis.

Market Analysis

The speaker provides an overview of the market and discusses potential trading opportunities.

Market Analysis

  • The speaker mentions "old bones cracking" as price dips back down.
  • They take a quick look at Nasdaq before discussing potential trades.
  • The speaker looks at other monitors, including the dollar index.
  • They discuss taking a sell side with this run up and what could happen if they break lower.

Trading Strategy

The speaker outlines their trading strategy and how to use information to take partial profits optimally.

Trading Strategy

  • If they trade below 33,812, it could set the stage for a run-in.
  • Partials should be taken optimally with ES or NASDAQ shorts.
  • Stop loss should be run underneath that low if traders were long.

Tape Reading

The speaker discusses tape reading and how it can condition traders to remove psychological barriers when trading with real money.

Tape Reading

  • Tape reading conditions traders to remove psychological barriers when trading with real money.
  • Traders should aim to be comfortable and not feel nervous or agitated.

Emotionless Trading

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of not getting emotional while trading.

Emotions and Trading

  • It is important to avoid emotions while trading.
  • Winning trades give a dopamine hit that lasts for only 3-4 minutes. Avoid impulsively going in again after a winning trade.
  • If you feel regret or wish you had stayed in a trade, you are not ready to trade with real funds.

Lunchtime Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses lunchtime trading and how it works.

Liquidity during Lunchtime Trading

  • During lunchtime trading, there is typically a run against positions or where stops would be placed on what was seen in the AM session.
  • The algorithm will seek to reprice and introduce liquidity to the marketplace at the high points of the morning session.
  • Annotate your chart to highlight these high points.

Old School Charting

  • The speaker prefers plotting charts manually rather than relying on indicators or shortcuts.
  • He believes that plotting charts himself means he is thinking about it more carefully.

Accumulation and Expansion

  • Accumulate at consequent encroachment and order blocks.
  • Gravitate up into 41 40.5 and attack buy side if possible.
  • Speed and distance are important once it reaches 41 40.5 as anyone with stop loss orders here would want to collapse the trade.

Market Analysis

The speaker provides an analysis of the market and discusses the behavior of prices.

Forecasting Price Behavior

  • The speaker has a small fair value buy side resting above the high.
  • In present market conditions, they don't want to see price trade below the low at 41.37.
  • They want to see that range between new week opening gap low and this low of this candle remain open that would act as a breakaway gap.
  • They expect it to trade up into the buy side here if it can do so.

Market Conditions

  • The speaker expects NASDAQ to fall victim to the lunch hour where it moves against traders that have traded short through the morning session.
  • The speaker steps away from their desk for a minute.
  • The speaker asks if their Twitter followers can still hear them.

Decoupling Market

  • It's not a symmetrical market; it's decoupling, which means everything is not in agreement.
  • When watching price action live like this in your tape reading, you want to keep your annotations on just lighten them up that way you keep your focus on the ones that are active still.

Understanding the Fair Value Gap

In this section, the speaker discusses the fair value gap and how to use it to measure risk.

Framing the Fair Value Gap

  • The current present new week opening gap is shaded.
  • Distinguishing between this gap and others is important.
  • The fair value gap is limited by the new week opening gap low of 41.37.
  • Price can go down below this low but not lower than a certain level (4137).
  • Leaving a portion of this range open acts as a breakaway gap fueling it to run to buy side.

Algorithm Changes and Time of Day

  • We are in a time of day where algorithm changes its delivery.
  • Traders with open positions that have made money in the morning will move on.
  • Smart money uses an algorithm to get in sync with the price engine mechanism that causes markets to run higher or lower for liquidity.

Trading Conditions

  • Low volatility conditions are not desirable anymore.
  • There are certain times of day when algorithms perform differently.
  • It's not just about looking for fair value gaps or order blocks; understanding time and price is crucial.

Understanding Market Orders and Anticipating Events

In this section, the speaker discusses how market orders work and why volume alone is not enough to understand price movements. He emphasizes the importance of anticipating events by time and studying past patterns.

Trading with Stop Orders vs Market Orders

  • Not everyone trades with stop orders.
  • Market orders come in all the time and only need one contract at the book price.
  • Volume alone is not enough to understand price movements.

Anticipating Events by Time

  • The speaker teaches his students how to anticipate certain events by time.
  • Students are confident because they have done the work and seen evidence that these things repeat by time.
  • By studying past patterns, traders can anticipate when the next type of setup is going to form.

Avoiding Being Surprised by Price Action

  • Traders should never be surprised by price action.
  • Everything in price is scripted and predetermined.
  • Unless traders look for repeating patterns, they will never identify them.

Scheduling Trade Setups Like a TV Guide

In this section, the speaker discusses how traders can schedule their trade setups like a TV guide. He explains how he knows every single trading day that has a full trading session and provides an example of a scheduled trade setup.

Scheduling Trade Setups

  • Traders can schedule their trade setups like a TV guide.
  • The speaker knows every single trading day that has a full trading session.
  • There will be a price run between 11:50 to 12:10 that runs liquidity against the daily range.

Example of Scheduled Trade Setup

  • The price run between 11:50 to 12:10 starts in a macro, which is a short list of directions that the algorithm itself will start operating under.
  • Shorts have been profitable since the morning 9:30 drop.
  • The price run will run to the liquidity that will be used for protection purposes on what was utilized in delivery of the morning session.

[CUTOFF_LIMIT]

Playlists: 2023 ICT Mentorship
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.