Mindscape 233 | Hugo Mercier on Reasoning and Skepticism

Introduction

In this section, the host introduces the topic of reasoning and its importance in human cognition.

Reasoning and Rationality

• Human beings have a capacity for reasoning that is different from other animals.

• Reasoning has evolved to give reasons for things, especially in social contexts.

• The ability to work together and make agreements greatly enabled human beings to cooperate and build things greater than themselves.

Guest Introduction

In this section, the host introduces Hugo Mercier as a French cognitive scientist who has written two books on reasoning.

Hugo Mercier's Work

• Hugo Mercier has done extensive research on how reason works in our brains.

• He argues that reason evolved to give reasons why to other people, not just for individual problem-solving.

• His book "Not Born Yesterday" discusses our gullibility and skepticism towards information.

Skepticism and Gullibility

In this section, the host discusses Hugo Mercier's argument about skepticism towards information.

Being Skeptical of Information

• People who care about rationality tend to be skeptical of crackpot theories.

• However, humans are often too skeptical of all the enormous piles of information telling us not to believe kooky conspiracy theories.

• We need to be more open-minded and honestly evaluate all potentially contrary information.

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Supporting Mindscape Podcast

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Definition of Reason

In this section, the speaker defines reason and explains that it is both the reasons we give each other and the cognitive mechanisms that allow us to produce and evaluate these reasons. The speaker also clarifies that reason does not necessarily mean being logical or rational.

What is Reason?

• Reason is both the reasons we give each other and the cognitive mechanisms that allow us to produce and evaluate these reasons.

• Most of our mind goes on without using reason at all.

• Reason doesn't mean being logical or rational.

Dual Process Models of Thinking

In this section, the speaker discusses dual process models of thinking, which divide mental mechanisms into two types: intuitive mechanisms and more cautious, careful, explicit processes. The speaker notes that this dichotomy is quite intuitive but may not be sufficient for explaining how people act.

Dual Process Models of Thinking

• Dual process models divide mental mechanisms into two types: intuitive mechanisms and more cautious, careful, explicit processes.

• This dichotomy is quite intuitive but may not be sufficient for explaining how people act.

Evolutionary Psychology and the Modular Mind

In this section, the speaker explains that the human mind is made up of countless mechanisms that work in relative isolation from each other. The mind is modular to a high degree, with different mechanisms dedicated to specific functions such as vision, perception, and decision-making.

The Modular Mind

• Complex artifacts are modular to a high degree.

• The human mind is also modular with countless mechanisms working in relative isolation from each other.

• Different mechanisms are dedicated to specific functions such as vision, perception, and decision-making.

• Each mechanism must be coordinated for the animal to make decisions.

Consciousness and Reasoning

• Consciousness emerges when things become conscious or we become consciously aware of them.

• We happen to be conscious of most of what we reason about.

• A lot of reasoning is unconscious even though it seems explicit.

• There is a cognitive layer that's inaccessible to consciousness.

Conclusion

• A lot of what we come to believe through reasoning and reflection is a result of things going on below the surface that we're completely unaware of.

The Importance of Reasoning

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of reasoning and how it sets humans apart from other animals.

Reasoning vs. Thinking

• Other animals can think and solve puzzles, but they do not engage in reasoning.

• Reasoning is the ability to produce and evaluate reasons, which requires a complex system of communication to express thoughts.

The Complexity of Reasoning

• Humans have the ability to produce reasons, but it is not something that can be taken for granted.

• Writing a piece of code that works perfectly well does not automatically explain why it makes certain decisions. A separate piece of code must be written to provide an explanation. This same principle applies to humans as well.

Language and Reasoning

• Offering up reasons requires language, but it is more about understanding what people mean than language itself.

• It is believed that reason evolved after a relatively complex communication system was already in place among our ancestors.

The Chicken and Egg Problem

In this section, the speaker discusses whether reasoning or language came first.

Evolution of Reasoning

• For reason to have evolved, our ancestors would have needed a relatively complex communication system in place already.

• There is a theory about why reason evolved that will be discussed later on in the video.

Language and Understanding

• While offering up reasons requires language, it is more about understanding what people mean than language itself.

• The ability to understand what people mean is crucial for reasoning.

The Importance of Language and Reasoning

In this section, the speakers discuss the importance of language and reasoning in human communication and how it differs from animal communication.

Language vs. Pointing

• Animals can understand pointing, but they don't use it to communicate with each other as much as humans do.

• Chimpanzees can understand pointing in some rare contexts, but not in most cases.

• Goats have a better understanding of pointing because of their long history of interacting with humans.

Human Ability to Express Meanings

• Humans have a unique ability to express meanings through words, gestures, or any other means.

• Animal communication is fascinating and complex but specific. They don't have a general mechanism for communicating meaning like humans do.

Offering Reasons

• When an animal understands pointing, it doesn't represent the offering of a reason like it might for a human being.

• The speakers discuss why humans have reasoning abilities while animals don't. They suggest that our ability to cooperate and communicate with each other is what sets us apart from other primates.

Evolutionary Pressure

• Neurons dedicated to finding and evaluating reasons take a lot of energy to grow and maintain. There must have been selection pressures that favored individuals who had better reasoning abilities over those who didn't.

• Humans' ability to cooperate and communicate with each other is unprecedented among primates.

Overall, this section discusses the differences between animal communication and human communication. It highlights how humans' unique ability to express meanings through language has allowed us to develop advanced reasoning abilities. The speakers suggest that our ability to cooperate and communicate with each other is what sets us apart from other primates.

The Emergence of Reason

In this section, the speaker discusses how reason emerged as a social tool for cooperation and communication.

Importance of Judging People Accurately

• It is important to judge people accurately in order to cooperate effectively.

• Judging people without access to their minds is difficult because actions can be misinterpreted.

• Justifying one's actions with reasons helps others understand and accurately judge them.

Reason as a Social Tool

• Reason emerged as a social tool for effective communication and cooperation.

• Exchanging reasons helps individuals make informed decisions when there is disagreement.

Tracking Truth through Social Reasoning

• The process of exchanging reasons must lead to more accurate beliefs on average.

• Intuitions about what constitutes a good or bad reason must track what is actually true.

Evolution of Reasoning

In this section, the speaker discusses the evolution of reasoning and how it relates to social structures, communication, and cooperation.

Succession of Events

• The most commonly accepted theory is that there was a succession of events that led to the evolution of reasoning.

• Changes in the ecology of our ancestors meant that it made more sense to cooperate more than other primates.

• Once you start cooperating more, it makes sense to communicate better. If you can communicate better, you're at a huge advantage.

• When you communicate better, you're even better if you can reason with each other.

Spark for Evolution

• There is no agreement over what is the spark or initial ecological change that led to our ancestors starting to cooperate more than other primates.

• It took hundreds of thousands or even millions of years for these changes to occur progressively.

Cognitive Capacities

• Our common ancestor with Neanderthals probably had language as sophisticated as ours.

• Before Homo sapiens, it becomes trickier to infer exactly what species were able to do.

Role of Reasoning in Persuasion and Truth-seeking

In this section, the speaker discusses how reasoning evolved not just for logic but also as a rhetorical device. They also discuss how we use reason both to produce arguments and evaluate them.

Two Sides of Reasoning

• We use reason both to produce reasons and arguments and justifications. When we do this, we are quite thoroughly biased because we want to convince others.

• There's another side of reasoning which involves evaluating arguments. When someone else gives us an argument, our goal is closer to having an objectively true answer.

Bias in Producing Arguments

• If my goal is to convince you of something, I should have a confirmation bias in the sense that if I start giving you arguments against my view and for your view, I'm not going to convince you.

• People overwhelmingly give arguments for their views and against others' views.

Evaluating Arguments

• When we evaluate reasons, the biases that plague producing arguments are less present.

• Our goal is to know whether we should change our minds or not.

• At the end of the day, we benefit if the beliefs we form are more accurate or if the decisions we make are more beneficial to us.

Reasoning and Cognitive Mechanisms

In this section, the speaker discusses how reasoning works and how cognitive mechanisms can interfere with it. He talks about the back-and-forth between producing biased reasons and evaluating other people's reasons objectively.

How Reason Works

• People can be reasonable and smart but still have made up their minds about certain things, making it almost impossible to persuade each other.

• It is hard to imagine having a dramatic change of mind on certain issues like the existence of God or the right interpretation of quantum mechanics.

• There are things for which it would be hard to imagine that there will be arguments that are sufficiently strong. However, new experimental data could lead logically to a change in framework.

Interference from Cognitive Mechanisms

• Reason works well on its own, but it is not the only cognitive mechanism we use. Other mechanisms related to our social lives can interfere with reason.

• We have commitments to our views, and changing our minds may make us appear less competent or coherent than we actually are.

• We sometimes refuse to concede even when someone makes a good point because we have an incentive to appear more coherent than we actually are.

Coming to Our Beliefs

• In most cases, we come to our beliefs through other cognitive mechanisms like perception or testimony. We then come up with reasons when these beliefs are contested.

• There are cases in which someone has convinced us with a reason, leading us to change our beliefs.

Introduction

In this section, the speaker introduces himself and his background in philosophy and cognitive science. He also talks about the importance of understanding how we reason and make decisions.

Speaker's Background

• The speaker is a philosopher and cognitive scientist.

• He has written several books on topics related to reasoning, decision-making, and consciousness.

Importance of Understanding Reasoning

• Understanding how we reason and make decisions is crucial for making better decisions in our personal lives as well as in society.

• It can help us avoid common pitfalls like confirmation bias or groupthink.

The Evolution of Reason

In this section, the speaker discusses how reason evolved and its role in human society.

Reasoning and Justification

• People often come up with a belief first and then justify it to others when the need arises.

• If humans were solitary creatures, there would be no reason to use reason.

• There are no evolutionary pressures for us to prove mathematical theorems, but there is an evolutionary pressure to persuade our fellow human beings.

The Accidental Nature of Reason

• Reason did not evolve for scientific purposes but rather as a byproduct of our social nature.

• Our ability to reason has faults due to cognitive biases and irrationalities.

Confirmation Bias

• Confirmation bias is well attested in countless psychology experiments.

• Whenever people have any kind of preconceived notion, they will find arguments for why they're correct.

• A famous example in Psychology literature is the doomsday cult that predicted the end of the world. After it didn't happen, none of them said they were wrong; instead, they justified their beliefs through prayer.

Rationality vs. Irrationality

• It's hard to show that something is irrational since even in the most hardcore sense, it may not be irrational if it provides benefits such as keeping a close-knit group together.

The Mechanisms of Belief Formation

In this section, the speaker discusses how human beings are susceptible to being persuaded of false things and how our minds process communicated information differently from perception.

Belief Formation Mechanisms

• Our belief formation mechanisms should err on the side of caution. If we don't understand an argument, we should stay with our prior belief.

• Updating our beliefs is a conservative process. We need good reasons to change our mind.

• Communication needs proof and good reasons to change our mind, while perception overrides memory.

False Beliefs

• People tend to believe in recurrent core concepts such as ancestors, ghosts, witches, and gods across different societies worldwide.

• People are prone to have some beliefs that they grow up accepting compared to others.

Skepticism About Vaccines Worldwide

In this section, the speaker talks about skepticism about vaccines worldwide and how the reasons offered for that skepticism are completely incoherent from one part of the world to another.

Vaccine Skepticism

• There is plenty of skepticism about vaccines worldwide.

• The reasons offered for vaccine skepticism vary widely across different parts of the world and can be completely incoherent.

The Audience for Search Views

In this section, the speaker discusses how there is an audience for search views because people have an intuitive resistance to vaccination. This resistance is fed by many different stories that are custom made to appeal to different cultures.

Resistance to Vaccination

• There is an audience for search views because people have an intuitive resistance to vaccination.

• Every country in the world has some people who are anti-vax and some who are vaccine hesitant.

• People resist other types of therapies as well, and this resistance is fed by many different stories that are custom made to appeal to different cultures.

Rationalization vs Rationality

• Rationalization is much more common than rationality when it comes to beliefs about vaccination.

• In most cases, people come up with a belief first and then rationalize it rather than changing their minds based on other people's reasons.

Nazi Propaganda

• Studies of Nazi propaganda suggest that it only worked when people already believed what the propaganda was saying.

• Nazi propaganda was successful in areas where anti-Semitism was already high but had no effect or even backfired in areas with low anti-Semitism.

The Power of Propaganda

In this section, the speaker discusses how propaganda can influence people's beliefs and actions.

Influence on Pre-Existing Beliefs

• Anti-Semitic acts are not prosecuted, giving anti-Semites free range to do whatever they want.

• Coordination points are created when people realize that many others share their anti-Semitic beliefs.

• Propaganda does not persuade people to change their beliefs but rather reinforces pre-existing ones.

Non-Attitudes and Trust

• People with no pre-existing strong belief can be easily influenced by those they trust.

• People tend to believe in someone they trust on an issue they know nothing about.

• Public opinion can influence policy, making it problematic at a collective level.

Effectiveness of Persuasion

• Advertising may be a waste of money as preferences are not deeply shaped by it.

• Advertising can still work in making people choose one brand over another.

The Effectiveness of Advertising on Podcasts

In this section, the speaker discusses the effectiveness of advertising on podcasts and shares an anecdote from the Freakonomics podcast about a company's lack of understanding regarding their advertising spending.

Advertising on Podcasts

• Studies show that advertising on podcasts is very effective.

• An anecdote from the Freakonomics podcast shared by Steve Levitt highlights how a big company spent millions of dollars on advertising without really knowing what they were doing.

• The company believed that advertising worked because they saw an increase in sales before Father's Day and Christmas, but they had no idea if their ads were actually effective.

• This anecdote shows that companies need to be more careful with their advertising spending and understand what works and what doesn't.

Resistance to Crazy Claims

In this section, the speaker talks about resistance to crazy claims at both personal and mass levels. They discuss vaccine hesitancy as an example and suggest that people should focus on opening their minds rather than being skeptical.

Forms of Resistance

• People are already too conservative when it comes to accepting new ideas or claims.

• Vaccine hesitancy is an example where people go in with preconceived notions against vaccination, which makes them reject medical consensus even if it's correct.

• Rather than focusing on being skeptical, people should focus on opening their minds to different viewpoints from various disciplines, political parties, countries, ethnic backgrounds etc.

• Open-mindedness or willingness to contemplate ideas you don't already have is more valuable for reaching new insights than just being skeptical.

Importance of Open-Mindedness

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of open-mindedness and willingness to contemplate new ideas for reaching new insights.

Importance of Open-Mindedness

• By default, people tend to be quite conservative and reject new ideas too easily.

• Our ancestors evolved in an environment where they knew just about everybody they would ever talk to in their lives, so if someone had a good idea, you could trust them even if they weren't knowledgeable in that area.

• Nowadays, we're confronted with a lot of information that we don't know the source of or whether we can trust it or not. As a result, we're not persuaded by it even if sometimes we should be.

• People should focus on opening their minds more and seeking out information from different sources to gain new insights.

Skepticism and Belief

In this section, the speakers discuss the issue of skepticism and belief. They talk about how people tend to be too skeptical about good reasons why certain beliefs are false, while being too credulous about other beliefs.

The Problem with Bigfoot Believers

• Bigfoot does not exist, and there is no evidence for it.

• People who believe in Bigfoot are not necessarily too credulous; rather, they are too skeptical about the good reasons why Bigfoot does not exist.

• People's attachment to their priors or folk beliefs can lead them to reject evidence that contradicts those beliefs.

Social Costs of Abandoning False Beliefs

• People's personal attachment to false beliefs is often reinforced by social factors such as friendships and hobbies.

• Abandoning a false belief can entail significant social costs, including broken friendships and loss of identity control.

Fighting Misinformation

In this section, the speakers discuss possible solutions for fighting misinformation. They suggest that systemic changes such as improving government trustworthiness may be more effective than individual efforts.

Government Trustworthiness and Conspiracy Theories

• Conspiracy theories are common in every country in the world, but countries with trustworthy governments tend to have fewer conspiracy theories.

• Improving government trustworthiness can lower rates of conspiracy theories by reducing people's grounds for believing in them.

Pharmaceutical Companies' Transparency

• Pharmaceutical companies can also improve their transparency and trustworthiness to increase people's acceptance of vaccination.

• Governments that are tempted to keep people from the truth would be better off letting people in on the truth, as this would increase people's trust in government in the long term.

Dealing with Partisan Epistemic Polarization

In this section, the speaker discusses the issue of partisan epistemic polarization in the United States and whether there is a way to deal with it.

Ideological Polarization

• The average Republican or Democrat tends to be much closer to each other than people think regarding issues such as gun control or abortion.

• Effective polarization is growing in the US, where people from both parties increasingly dislike each other.

• People are increasingly ideologically coherent, which means that if you're a Democrat or Republican, you feel more compelled to agree with most of your party's points.

Factors Contributing to Polarization

• People are more informed about politics nowadays and follow political news closely.

• Social media can amplify the problem by showing extreme versions of the other side's views. This creates a distorted view of the other side and drives ideological polarization.

• Affective polarization is not just limited to social media but also exists in other countries.

Game Theoretic Calculation

• Politicians may undermine trust in the other side because it helps them win. This could point towards a fundamental instability of democracies in a world where technology lets people get messages out effectively.

Historical Perspective

• Across history, for every new type of media, there has been a lot of pessimism about its effects. However, we should be skeptical of overly pessimistic stances about new media's impact on society.

The Effects of TikTok on Teenagers

In this section, the speakers discuss the effects of TikTok on teenagers and how it can be used to convey messages to them at a large scale. They also talk about the opportunities and dangers associated with social media.

Opportunities and Dangers of Social Media

• Social media provides an opportunity for organizations to convey messages to teenagers at a large scale.

• However, there are also dangers associated with social media.

• Social change can happen faster due to better communication and coordination through social media.

• It is not clear whether social media dramatically changes the direction in which social change happens.

Becoming More Reasonable by Trusting Others

In this section, the speakers discuss how we can become more reasonable by finding people we trust and letting them criticize us.

Trusting Others

• Finding people we respect and who are of good faith is ideal for reasoning well.

• Disagreeing with people we trust helps us reason better.

• We tend to be too conservative and don't trust other people enough.

Benefits of Trusting People

• Trust is like other skills, the more you try trusting people, the better you get at figuring out whom you should trust.

• There is a big benefit in just trusting people because then you learn more about whom to trust and whom not to trust.

Bias in Trusting Others

In this section, the speakers discuss bias in trusting others and how it can affect our ability to reason well.

Bias in Trusting Others

• People tend to see biases in others but not in themselves.

• We tend to harbor some kind of prejudice against groups of people.

Benefits of Trusting People

• If the stakes aren't massive, there is a big benefit in just trusting people because then you learn more about whom to trust and whom not to trust.