2022 ICT Mentorship Episode 39
Introduction
The speaker introduces the S&P futures contract for June 2022 and explains that they will be looking at a daily chart on the left-hand side and a one-hour chart on the right-hand side. They also mention that they will be discussing levels that are sensitive on one time frame higher time frame and how it's subordinate on the lower time frame to those higher time.
Trading Range
The speaker talks about how they recently were in a trading range, and if they were to start moving higher, it could have been a draw on liquidity. They also mention news this morning about unemployment data which is affecting the markets.
- If we break higher, there could be displacement to the upside.
- Until there is some kind of displacement, the speaker isn't excited about doing much in the marketplace.
- 40 70 was a nice draw on liquidity which would be below these routes to equal those.
- A target was given before 9:30 am suggesting that we're expecting volatility significant enough to take us below these lows.
Predicting Market Movements
The speaker discusses their prediction for market movements based on certain conditions being met.
- Evidence is needed to support running below relative equal lows.
- If we go below those lows, we would draw into that fair value cut.
- Expecting volatility significant enough to take us below these lows.
- A small range day or large range day can occur depending on whether we draw all the way down into here or not.
Learning from Mistakes
The speaker talks about learning from mistakes when trading and emphasizes not rushing out there to try to fix things after taking a losing trade.
- Even if something goes wrong, don't rush out to try to fix it.
- Rushing into trading live funds when not ready is not recommended.
- Traders who are still learning should not be trading with live funds.
Request for Feedback
The speaker requests feedback from viewers on what they would like to see going forward.
- Viewers can leave comments in the comment section with suggestions.
- The community will let the speaker know what they want to do.
Daily Chart Analysis
The speaker analyzes the daily chart and discusses levels that were previously mentioned.
- Relative equal lows were mentioned earlier as a draw on liquidity.
- A bearish spice was present, and conditions were given if we went below there.
- Transposing levels over to the hourly chart helps understand how they relate.
Understanding Narrative and Framework
In this section, the speaker talks about how narrative must be understood and requires experience. He lends his three decades of experience to help students grow faster. The speaker also mentions that it is easier for a student to be engaged when they are shown something to anticipate.
Importance of Narrative
- Narrative must be understood and requires experience.
- Speaker lends his three decades of experience to help students grow faster.
- It is easier for a student to be engaged when they are shown something to anticipate.
Framework for Daily Range
- Speaker suggests going below relative equal lows and drawing into an old low back.
- Opening price at midnight New York local time is extended out in time.
- Power three concept is the accumulation of shorts and manipulation of those individuals that were already short.
Identifying Key Levels
In this section, the speaker talks about identifying key levels on the chart. He emphasizes the importance of studying what is at a particular level that may be of interest.
Identifying Key Levels
- Speaker states he likes 470 as an interest because it draws liquidity.
- Students should go into charts looking for evidence and details themselves.
- Power three concept involves accumulation of shorts and manipulation of those individuals that were already short.
Framework for Hourly Chart
- Fair value gap swing low with displacement consolidates going into midnight last night New York time.
- Three candles with one candle in the middle have an exposed area that is not overlapped with the previous candle's low.
- Speaker suggests going below relative equal lows and drawing into an old low back.
Understanding Power Three
In this section, the speaker talks about his power three concept. He explains how it involves the accumulation of shorts and manipulation of those individuals that were already short.
Power Three Concept
- Power three concept involves accumulation of shorts and manipulation of those individuals that were already short.
- Speaker explains how power three involves taking out stops, accumulating shorts, and then manipulating those individuals who are already short.
Importance of Accumulating Shorts
- Accumulating shorts is important because it draws liquidity to a particular level.
- Manipulation occurs when price moves in the opposite direction from what most traders expect.
Trading Analysis
In this section, the speaker provides an analysis of the market and discusses how to approach trading in the afternoon session.
Market Analysis
- The market aggressively runs through the 470 level, as anticipated based on pre-market commentary.
- Traders get caught short chasing price going lower and reprice the 4105. Buy side liquidity is resting there and a fair value gap.
- The market drops down between 11 o'clock and noon, consolidates, then retraces back up.
- The market aggressively attacks the cell side below 470 and goes right back down to that 440 level.
Afternoon Session Trading
- Before considering trading in the afternoon session, consider what is the daily range trying to do. Is it trying to expand higher or lower? Did it reverse in the morning session?
- Once the market starts to break after lunch (12 PM - 1 PM), clear stops will be made.
- At one o'clock, algorithms reprices and runs.
Chart Analysis
In this section, the speaker analyzes charts for different time frames.
Time Frame Analysis
- The speaker has a 15-minute time frame on the left-hand side and a five-minute chart on the right.
- There is a lot of chop in initial opening range low higher high than that high lower low than that low lower low again then rally through this high.
- Prices gravitate around midnight's opening price.
[#](0:15:30 t:930s) Afternoon Session Trading
In this section, the speaker discusses how to approach trading in the afternoon session.
Afternoon Session Trading
- Before considering trading in the afternoon session, consider what is the daily range trying to do. Is it trying to expand higher or lower? Did it reverse in the morning session?
- Once the market starts to break after lunch (12 PM - 1 PM), clear stops will be made.
- At one o'clock, algorithms reprices and runs.
Understanding Smart Money Trading Strategies
In this section, the speaker explains how smart money utilizes market conditions to engineer buying interest and liquidity. They also discuss how they cannibalize buy-side liquidity and knock out short positions.
Smart Money Trading Strategies
- During a fast market during lunch hour, smart money creates a significant higher low by sweeping the highs if they are bearish.
- Smart money knocks out short positions by repricing the algorithm and flooding the market with buyers at a higher price.
- Smart money goes short after engineering an influx of buying interest and liquidity above the short-term high.
- Traders who see the high being broken as a means of getting long have their buy stops triggered, which smart money cannibalizes.
Understanding Breakers in Price Action
In this section, the speaker explains what breakers are in price action and how to identify them. They also discuss why it's important to know what the market is likely to be reaching for when identifying breakers.
Identifying Breakers in Price Action
- A breaker is a pattern where price runs out of a pool of liquidity and then reverses and trades back down below that short-term low.
- It's important to know what the market is likely to be reaching for when identifying breakers; otherwise, it's just speculation or gambling.
- The down closed candle prior to move up clearing that short-term high is an example of a breaker.
Trading Below Short-Term Lows
In this section, the speaker explains how to trade below short-term lows and what to look for when anticipating a level repelling price.
Trading Below Short-Term Lows
- As price starts to move back up in this level, anticipate that level repelling price and go lower.
- Be aggressive about trading below that because there's sell-side there.
- The algorithm is likely to reprice into the fair value gap on the daily chart.
Teaching My Son to Trade Futures
In this section, the speaker talks about teaching his son how to trade futures and shares some insights on trading.
Human Traits and Trading
- The speaker acknowledges that he is a human being who makes mistakes and has chemical imbalances due to bipolar disorder.
- He emphasizes the importance of finding a trading model that matches one's personality and comfort level.
- The speaker notes that there are many variables in trading, including indicators, trading styles, methodologies, and personalities of teachers.
Teaching His Son to Trade
- The speaker shares that he taught his son Caleb a model for trading futures.
- He reports that Caleb started trading with a live account in May 2021 with AMP Futures as his broker.
- The speaker notes that Caleb has not reported any issues with fills being executed professionally by AMP Futures.
- He reports that Caleb's equity grew from $2810 to over $18,300 in just four weeks of trading.
Model for Trading Futures
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of finding a model that matches one's personality and comfort level when it comes to engaging price action.
- He explains why he settled on using the index futures market for his son's model because it ignores spread issues present in forex.
Teaching a New Trader to Read Price Action
In this section, the speaker discusses how he is teaching his son to read price action and make trading decisions. He emphasizes the importance of backtesting and squashing the fear of missing out.
The Importance of Backtesting
- The speaker stresses the importance of backtesting to identify recurring patterns in price action.
- He provides guidance to his son by acting as an internal voice, asking him questions about what he sees on the charts.
- The speaker's 30 years of experience allows him to provide valuable insights that help his son learn how to read price action.
Algorithmic Trading
- The speaker focuses on algorithmic trading and teaches his son to look for specific elements in price action.
- He wants his son to be a one-trick pony and only focus on one aspect of trading until he feels confident enough to leave his job.
- The speaker reminds viewers that price is delivered by an algorithm and that buying and selling pressure are just excuses for market movements.
Time-Based Trading
- The algorithm used by the speaker leans heavily on time-based factors such as day of week, week of month, month of year, etc.
- He seeks recurring phenomena that can be capitalized on by traders who know what they're hunting for.
- The goal is to find specific elements in price action right before pushing a button.
Support/Resistance Levels
- Support/resistance levels are viewed as a fallacy because it's difficult for retail traders to consistently pick the right levels.
- Even higher time frame support/resistance levels can be unreliable because of market movements that go against expectations.
- Fearful events such as getting stopped out and abandoning one's opinion about a trade are common experiences for retail traders.
The Importance of Time in Algorithmic Trading
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of time in algorithmic trading and explains how it is crucial to consider time before anything else.
Time as a Crucial Element
- The algorithm starts working with a specific macro that follows a short order of instructions.
- It seeks a specific level, moves to premium, discount or consolidation, and waits for another time.
- Time is crucial because it helps traders understand why certain things are occurring at a specific time.
- Understanding the element of time will help traders know when to do what while going through the motions of trading.
Reading Price Action
In this section, the speaker talks about reading price action and how it can be challenging for new traders. He also explains how he teaches his students to read price action effectively.
Reading Price Action
- For new traders, price action can look like a foreign language that they have never learned how to read.
- The speaker has done a lot of producing and authorship of algorithms and gets pleasure from watching people get blown away by the incredible detail that these algorithms repeat and follow.
- By taking all the noise away from back-and-forth movement and adding just a little bit of lipstick, there is more to work with.
- The speaker engages his students by keeping their attention span on those who are very limited and bored easily.
Targeting Liquidity Pools
In this section, the speaker talks about targeting liquidity pools instead of support and resistance levels. He also explains why retail traders often fail because they try to force something that is designed to fail.
Targeting Liquidity Pools
- The speaker teaches his son to look for setups that are going to target a specific pool of liquidity.
- He has a clear idea where the market is likely to go up for buy side or down for sell side.
- Retail traders often fail because they try to force something that is designed to fail, such as trading support and resistance levels.
Understanding Price Movements
This section discusses the logic behind price movements and how they are controlled.
The Science Behind Price Movements
- Every fluctuation in price movements is controlled, engineered, and premeditated either by AI or manual intervention.
- Manual intervention occurs during events such as FOMC rate announcements, causing explosive price movements.
Using Economic Calendars to Engage with Price
- Economic calendars can be used to identify days when medium or high impact news events are likely to occur.
- On these days, traders can engage with price while practicing caution with their normal risk percentage.
The Power 3 Concept
This section introduces the Power 3 concept and explains how it can be used to capture movement on the daily range.
Elements of Time in the Power 3 Concept
- The first element of time is at 8:30 AM when a news embargo lifts. The second element is at 9:30 AM.
- The opening price at midnight in New York local time is another important element of time for the Power 3 concept.
Shorting Above Opening Price at Midnight
- Traders should short at or above the opening price at midnight in New York local time if they want to capture movement on a down day's daily range.
- When market prices run up and take out short-term highs, there may be stops resting below that level which could trigger a sell-off towards equal lows in the past (4101/4100).
Understanding Algorithmic Trading
This section explains how algorithmic trading works and its limitations.
Limitations of Algorithmic Trading
- Algorithms are not aware of how much volume rests above or below a high or low that's penetrated.
- The daily range has limitations programmed into it until manual intervention is brought in to remove those initial boundaries.
Analogy with Video Games
- Video games have maps or territories that the player gets to explore, but they have limitations programmed into them. Similarly, price movements have limitations programmed into them until manual intervention removes those boundaries.
Teaching My Son to Trade
In this section, the speaker talks about teaching his son how to trade and why he is starting with a low threshold of five points.
Starting with Five Points
- The speaker is teaching his son to capture five points in a move.
- He believes that five points is the lowest threshold of points a setup should yield.
- Even on choppy days, it's reasonable to pull out five points if you have experience.
- The speaker warns against thinking that making ten points a day will be easy for beginners.
Coaching His Son
- The speaker expects his son to learn over time and take portions off at five points while holding for liquidity pool hits.
- He coaches his son by giving him visual and audible clues as they navigate price together.
- The experience can be intimidating for his son, but the speaker allows him to experience real money trading while learning.
- They discuss every potential hazard and pothole in real-time.
Low-Hanging Fruit Approach
- The speaker uses a low-hanging fruit approach when teaching beginners.
- He sets achievable goals like capturing 25 pips per week or five points per trade.
- This approach gives students encouragement and helps them feel like they're progressing.
Trading Strategy for Consistent Profit
In this section, the speaker discusses a trading strategy that can lead to consistent profit.
Mini S&P Contract
- One contract of the mini S&P is worth $50 per point.
- Consistently making one point per day can result in $250 per day or $1250 per week.
Responding to Comments
- The speaker responds to comments left by subscribers on Twitter and YouTube.
- The speaker usually responds to comments left by subscribers who have a mark next to their name.
- The speaker appreciates followers but warns against expecting consistent profits.
Skill Set and Confidence
- Taking losses is part of trading, and it takes skill and confidence not to immediately try to make up for them.
- Earning the skill set required for successful trading is worth the effort.
Trading Setup at 8:30 AM
In this section, the speaker describes his son's trading setup at 8:30 AM.
Bear Scenario
- At 8:30 AM, look for a bear scenario with liquidity below the marketplace.
- Look for a fair value gap that gives five points. Even if it allows for 30 points, get out at five points.
Opportunity at 9:30 AM
In this section, the speaker discusses an opportunity at 9:30 AM when equity opens.
Market Movement
- The market initially started sending prices lower at 9:30 AM.
- The speaker predicted that prices would go up into the fair value gap.
Introduction
In this section, the speaker introduces himself and his intentions. He explains that he is not trying to manipulate the market and encourages viewers to trust him.
Speaker's Intentions
- The speaker wants to be a helpful friend in the market.
- He is not asking for payment or worship.
- The speaker wants viewers to have fun and show up every day.
Market Analysis
In this section, the speaker analyzes the market and discusses his trading strategy.
Trading Strategy
- The speaker went short on a demo account when the market dropped.
- He tweeted instructions on how to take partials as price went below certain levels.
- The speaker closed out two contracts as it went below a certain low.
- He outlined an order block that was problematic and closed three more contracts before the stop hit.
Market Analysis
- The market consolidated above the New York midnight opening price before breaking down later in the afternoon.
- The sell-side liquidity pool was outlined, showing that south side had been tapped.
- A relative equal low was created, creating another level of sell-side below that.
Liquidity Pool Analysis
In this section, the speaker discusses how he knew when to close three contracts and why he picked a specific candle.
Candle Selection
- The speaker picked a specific candle because of its sell-side liquidity pool.
- South side had been tapped at old lows before going lower and creating relative equal lows.
Contract Closing Strategy
- The speaker closed three contracts when price went above an order block because he anticipated it reversing.
- He did not close out his entire position because it would feel like panic.
Understanding Market Behavior
In this section, the speaker discusses how the market should have behaved after taking buy side liquidity and why it did not behave as expected.
Buy Side Liquidity and Institutional Overflow
- The market should have gone lower after taking buy side liquidity.
- Institutional overflow is bearish and should have stopped price from going higher.
- The algorithm seeks buy side when it reaches above a certain high.
Taking Partial Profits
- The speaker pulled up an order to take three contracts off because he was watching to see if the trade would fail.
- He knew he was going to get smoked on the stop if he didn't take partial profits.
- He wanted to show how you can still take something off even if it doesn't hit your stop-loss, and then resume in your favor.
Sell Side Liquidity
- Multiple levels of sell-side were taken below the original sell-side liquidity outlined at the beginning of the day on Twitter.
- This caused problems because they took out an up-close candle that should have capped price on the upside.
Trading Discipline
In this section, the speaker talks about trading discipline and why it's important not to be greedy.
Afternoon Trading Session
- If his son takes a loss in the morning, he can try to make it back with a 9:30 setup or trade in the afternoon.
- If his son makes money in the morning, he tells him to paper trade or demo trade in the afternoon instead of pushing his edge.
Importance of Discipline
- The speaker teaches discipline because there's a certain measure of confidence knowing that you can go into these markets anytime and get what you need.
- It keeps him from overtrading or fearing that these things are going to stop working.
Undisciplined Trading
- There will always be people who are not disciplined enough, even if they're exposed to the same content.
- They try to recreate the wheel and do things willy-nilly, which is why they won't make it work for themselves.
Importance of Focusing on Results Over Image
In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on results rather than image and outward approval. He explains that those who are quiet and focused on results tend to be the most successful.
Key Points:
- Those who focus on being looked at or gaining followers are unlikely to be successful.
- The speaker's private group has shown that those who are quiet and focused on results tend to be the most successful.
Afternoon Trading Session
In this section, the speaker discusses the afternoon trading session for index futures after lunch. He provides specific times for when certain setups occur.
Key Points:
- The afternoon trading session starts at 1:30 PM.
- The speaker looks for a setup where there is a displacement after an area of buy stocks has been taken. This is a valid setup for short selling.
- There is sell side liquidity below a series of equal lows, indicating a bearish day. The market will likely drive down into this liquidity, creating an imbalance.
- The goal is to make five points per trade, with three opportunities per day.
Building Experience Through Observation
In this section, the speaker discusses how his son is learning to build experience through observation and repetition. He emphasizes the importance of not getting discouraged by losing trades and using past experiences as a guide.
Key Points:
- The goal is for his son to observe one live trade per day and then watch and study others without taking any more live trades.
- Losing trades should not discourage his son because these setups repeat over time.
- The goal is to make more than half of his weekly salary on one trade.
Trading Multiple Times a Day
In this section, the speaker discusses how he initially forced his son to take multiple trades per day. He explains that it's important to find the right setups and not force trades.
Key Points:
- Initially, the speaker forced his son to take three trades per day.
- There is a setup that forms in the last hour of trading most days of the week.
- It's up to individuals to go through their charts and find these setups. Backtesting and finding examples can help build confidence in these setups.
- The goal is to make five points with just one mini contract.
Breaking Free from Traditional Jobs
In this section, the speaker emphasizes how trading can be a way for individuals to break free from traditional jobs and become financially independent.
Key Points:
- Traditional jobs can be hindrances because they require individuals to work long hours for little pay after taxes.
- Trading can provide financial independence if done correctly.
The Benefits of Learning a Skill Set
In this section, the speaker discusses how learning a skill set can remove fear and anxiety related to inflation, missing out, and failing.
Benefits of Learning a Skill Set
- Learning a skill set removes fear related to missing out, failing, and inflation.
- It frees you up from worrying about the cost of things like gas or food.
- The skill set offers limitless opportunities limited only by your imagination and work ethic.
Being Part of a Thriving Community
In this section, the speaker talks about being part of a community that encourages one another and is not focused on upselling.
Being Part of a Thriving Community
- Being part of a thriving community helps you avoid pain and struggles that others have gone through.
- You are in a community where everyone is trying to help one another without any sales pitch coming.
- Real accounts with real money are being used in this community.
Mastering Fear and Greed
In this section, the speaker emphasizes mastering fear and greed as key to becoming an independent thinker.
Mastering Fear and Greed
- Consistency in trading requires mastering fear and greed.
- Operating with discipline at this level is unknown to most traders on social media platforms.
- Gradual progress towards excellence requires taking steps forward while sometimes taking steps back or detours.
Dealing with Losing Trades
In this section, the speaker talks about how losing trades are like getting a flat tire and should not keep you from reaching your destination.
Dealing with Losing Trades
- Losing trades are like getting a flat tire; they cost time and money but don't keep you from reaching your destination.
- Taking breaks when feeling overwhelmed or wanting to quit is important.
- The journey towards excellence requires gradual progress and discipline.
Introduction
The speaker emphasizes the importance of enjoying the learning process and asks for feedback from viewers.
- Enjoyment is key to successful learning.
- Feedback is requested from viewers on whether they would like to see a short daily review of setups for the S&P and/or Nasdaq, as well as their experience with the mentorship program so far.
Daily Review Request
The speaker requests feedback on whether viewers would like to see a daily review of setups for the S&P and/or Nasdaq.
- Viewers are asked if they would like to see a short (2-3 minute) daily review of setups for the S&P and/or Nasdaq.
- The speaker notes that doing both takes too much time.
- Viewers are asked to leave comments in the section below if they are interested in this feature.
Feedback Request
The speaker requests feedback on viewer's experiences with his teachings on YouTube.
- Viewers are asked to provide feedback on their experience with the mentorship program so far.
- Feedback should be honest but respectful.
- If it hasn't been a positive experience, viewers can respectfully express that as well.
- The speaker will use this feedback to improve his teaching methods.
Conclusion
The speaker concludes by wishing viewers a safe and enjoyable weekend.
- Viewers are wished a safe and enjoyable weekend.