Russia still hopes for a quick victory

Russia's Expectations for the War in Ukraine

In this video, the speaker discusses whether Russia is preparing for a quick or long war in Ukraine and what that means for their strategy.

Quick vs. Long War

• A quick war would be finished within six months, while a long war would go beyond that timeframe.

• In a long war scenario, Russia stabilizes the frontlines over winter and prepares for a new offensive in spring. This indicates they are preparing for a longer conflict.

• In contrast, in a quick war scenario, Russia throws all its resources into the fight right away without waiting. The outcome of this strategy is uncertain.

Military vs. Political Logic

• From a military perspective, it makes sense for Russia to choose the long war scenario as it allows them to prepare better and win when ready. However, politically Putin may prefer the quick war option to avoid losing support from his people who are already skeptical about the conflict.

• Putin needs to make the war sustainable in society by making Russians excited about politics and willing to sacrifice for the cause. This is difficult given that he has broken his part of the contract with people by not delivering economic progress or predictability and asking families to send their young men to die in a conflict many do not care about.

Putin's Social Contract and War Strategy

In this section, Brian Taylor discusses the problem of Putin not having a state ideology and how it affects his ability to get people to sacrifice for a cause. He also talks about the unsustainability of Putin breaking the social contract with the Russian people that keeps him in power.

Unsustainability of Breaking Social Contract

• The Russian system today does not have a state ideology, which is a problem for Putin as he wants people to sacrifice for a cause.

• It is unsustainable for Putin to keep breaking the social contract with the Russian people that keeps himself in power.

• There is no political effort by Putin to engage the public or redefine the social contract into something where they are willing to sacrifice their own life or lives of their family members.

Long War Scenario

• Either Putin needs war to end so he can get back to old ways where people are disengaged from politics or he needs a new social contract where people are passionate about politics and willing to sacrifice for victory.

• If Russia is preparing for long war scenario, then we should expect them to have mostly defensive posture on battlefield so they can stall frontlines over winter with lowest possible number of soldiers.

• Russia has launched very ambitious attacks in Donetsk part of frontline, taking big losses and consuming mobilized soldiers at high pace. They will likely have another round of mobilization in couple months.

• If Russia has chosen long war scenario, we should expect them to have an economical approach towards use of expensive weapons like high precision missiles. But Russia is rapidly consuming these missiles now instead of saving them for later offensive operations.

Use of High-Precision Missiles

• Russia is consuming their high-precision missiles to hit Ukrainian infrastructure and create an effect here and now in time for the winter.

• Russia keeps lowering the number of missiles they keep in reserve, and it looks like they have decided to use all the missiles. It seems unlikely that they will have a significant number to use in a big offensive in say April or May.

Political Effort

• If Russia has chosen long war scenario, we should expect them to make political effort to engage public. Putin needs to redefine social contract and get people on board with an ideological project where they are willing to sacrifice for the cause.

• There is no political effort by Putin to engage the public or redefine the social contract into something where they are willing to sacrifice their own life or lives of their family members.

Putin's Strategy in Ukraine

In this video, the speaker discusses Putin's strategy in Ukraine and predicts that he is going for scenario two. He believes that Putin will throw everything he has into the war in an attempt to get a quick win over the winter. However, this won't work as there is already declining support for the war among Russians.

Putin's Plan

• Putin is not creating domestic conditions necessary to replace soldiers lost.

• He will throw everything he has into the war in an attempt to get a quick win over the winter.

• There is declining support for the war among Russians.

• When Russia needs to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men, there may be turmoil in Russia.

Western Military Analysts' Predictions

• Most Western military analysts are wrong when they predict that Russia is going for scenario one.

• They think that Russia is going with scenario one because that's what they would have done.

• But it doesn't fit with what Putin is actually doing and the indicators we have.

Conclusion

• The speaker ends by asking viewers to like and subscribe if they found the video useful.