ICT - Mastering High Probability Scalping Vol. 1 of 3

Introduction

In this section, the speaker introduces himself and explains that he will be teaching high probability scalping.

• The video is part of a series on the speaker's YouTube channel.

• The speaker asks viewers to report any unauthorized re-uploads of his content.

• Viewers can contact the speaker at innercircletrader@gmail.com with any concerns.

What is High Probability Scalping?

In this section, the speaker defines high probability scalping and explains how it fits into his overall trading strategy.

• High probability scalping involves taking 10 to 30 pip price swings.

• The speaker uses this style of trading to showcase his skills and provide opportunities for study.

• However, he notes that there are other ways to trade the markets beyond scalping.

• The speaker's overall strategy involves trading daily and weekly highs and lows within specific ranges.

Learning from the Presentation

In this section, the speaker provides advice on how to get the most out of his presentation.

• Viewers should have a notepad handy while watching the video.

• They should listen carefully because the speaker is sharing over 20 years of experience in a short amount of time.

• If viewers have questions, they should write them down as they watch because future presentations may answer them.

Highlights of High Probability Scalping

In this section, the speaker outlines what viewers can expect to learn in this presentation.

• Viewers will learn how to identify directional bias for higher timeframe institutional sponsorship.

• They will also learn how to determine high probable times of day for trading.

• Finally, viewers will learn how to frame high probability setups for runs on liquidity.

Example of High Probability Scalping

In this section, the speaker provides an example of a high probability scalp in the USD/CAD currency pair.

• The setup involves a weekly and daily high within a specific range.

• While this is an example of short-term scalping, longer-term conditions may overlap with these setups.

• The speaker notes that he is not teaching one shot one kill or swing trading in this presentation.

High Probability Scalping

In this section, the speaker explains a simple approach to running out previous day's highs or lows. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of thinking institutionally and leaving behind the retail mindset.

Daily Highs and Lows

• A short-term scalp involves targeting previous day's highs or lows.

• Always look back at the highest high and lowest low in the last three days.

• Use Wednesday's data and Tuesday's data to determine daily high and low on Thursday.

Institutional Mindset

• Leave behind retail mindset and think institutionally.

• Using institutional mindset will help you find consistency in trading.

Hourly Chart for Liquidity

In this section, the speaker discusses how to use hourly charts for liquidity when scalping.

Time Frame Bias

• From a scalping standpoint, follow mostly on daily time frame as it gives a bias.

• Use hourly chart for looking for liquidity.

Previous Day's High/Low

• Traded below Wednesday's low today and Tuesday's low.

• When bullish on price action, run liquidity on previous day or days prior to yesterday's high.

Understanding Swing Highs and Lows

In this section, the speaker explains how to identify swing highs and lows on a daily chart. He emphasizes the importance of monitoring daily highs and lows to forecast swing highs and lows before they materialize.

Identifying Swing Highs and Lows

• Every swing high on a daily chart is created by three individual bars.

• Monitoring daily highs and lows helps in forecasting swing highs and lows before they materialize.

• The previous day's high or an old high is where the market will draw up to in terms of bullishness.

• When price goes above an old high, it forces buyers to come in at a higher price instead of buying low.

Focusing on One Currency Pair

In this section, the speaker advises traders to focus on one currency pair for one month. He suggests that traders use the information he provides during that period to understand price better.

Focusing on One Currency Pair

• Traders should focus on one currency pair for one month.

• This approach helps traders learn more about trading than trying to do all these other things with different pairs.

• If you're trading multiple assets and you're now starting to learn forex, stop trading the other asset classes and just focus one month with me using the information I give you.

Understanding Drawls

In this section, the speaker explains what drawls are when looking for buy-side liquidity or buy stops.

Understanding Drawls

• A drawl is where the market is going to reach for in terms of bullishness.

• The previous day's high or an old high is where the market will draw up to in terms of bullishness.

• When price goes above an old high, it forces buyers to come in at a higher price instead of buying low.

• The market is driven up there from an algorithmic standpoint.

# Trading Strategy Overview

In this section, the speaker discusses how to find a setup for trading and emphasizes the importance of not trading every day.

Finding a Setup

• Not every pair creates the condition for a setup every day.

• Understand the setup before going into other pairs.

• Find one or two trades per week and force yourself to be disciplined.

Avoiding Losses

• Every time you trade, you're opening an invitation to lose money.

• Don't try to trade every single day.

• Once you make money in your demo account, don't risk losing it by continuing to trade.

# Chart Analysis

In this section, the speaker analyzes charts and explains how to identify bullish and bearish markets.

Daily Chart Patterns

• Swing low is three bars or candles with one having the lowest low and higher lows on either side.

• A swing low forms a ring low when it's the lowest in recent weeks or months.

Market Structure

• The hourly chart sets up where the market will most likely reach for support or resistance.

• If we're bullish, we look for an old high to run to.

• Larry Williams' approach starts with identifying swing highs and lows.

# Daily Swing Lows and Highs

In this section, the speaker explains how to identify daily swing lows and highs in order to determine market direction.

Identifying Swing Highs and Lows

• Look for a daily swing low after a swing high has been broken.

• A swing high is a high that has two lower highs on either side of it.

• Wait for institutions to get back in line with momentum on a short-term basis.

• Once the swing low forms after the swing high has been broken, momentum is now bullish.

Tracking Candle Numbers

• Number each candle from left to right (e.g. number one candle, number two candle).

• Focus on the high of the third candle once the daily swing low forms.

• When day four trades through the high of day three, look for runs on previous day's highs.

Trading Strategies

• If we open below number three's high, wait for an optimal trade entry before going long.

• Look for a run on liquidity above number three's by stops.

• Be aggressive once this formation occurs.

# Market Directional Bias

In this section, the speaker discusses how to determine whether the market is bullish or bearish based on previous day's highs.

Violating Previous Day's Highs

• Each previous day's high is taken to some degree every day.

• Markets with this condition have a tendency to continuously move higher each day.

• Inside days are important but not so much for determining directional bias.

Determining Market Directional Bias

• Wait for a swing high broken to the upside.

• Wait for a swing low deform after pullback from bullishness.

• Watch number 3's high to be violated.

# Finding One Good Set Up

The speaker explains that they focus on finding one good set up and if a move has already occurred, they would look at another pair. They explain the premise behind their system and why it works.

Scalping Strategy

• The speaker explains that their strategy is a scalp, where they are looking for an opportunity to run a previous day's high or a high from two days ago.

• They emphasize that they are not trying to get the weekly low or daily low and hold until close.

• The strategy is based on targeting liquidity pools of previous highs and lows, which banks target more than anything else in forex.

• This approach works in stocks, futures, bonds, and just about anything that can be traded.

# Bearish Market Momentum

The speaker explains how to identify bearish market momentum using swing highs and lows.

Identifying Bearish Market Momentum

• When price trades below a swing low, wait for a swing high to form as we're waiting for a retracement.

• Once the short-term high or swing high forms, watch the daily candle number three and wait for it to trade through the low.

• If it does trade through the low, we know we are in bear territory and will likely see each previous day's low violated.

• Monitor breaks in swing highs and lows to give us bias on the daily chart.

# Daily Chart Momentum

The speaker emphasizes why they look forward on a daily chart because momentum tends to last for at least a few days.

Daily Chart Momentum

• Momentum that begins when the daily chart tends to occur and lasts for at least two to five days in duration.

• If momentum is working one side higher or lower, it tends to stay in that direction for a period of a few days.

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of monitoring breaks in swing highs and lows to give us bias on the daily chart.

Identifying Swing Lows and Highs

In this section, the speaker explains how to identify swing lows and highs in price action.

Swing Low and High Definition

• A swing low is only being stalked or looked for in price action until we see a short term swing high being broken.

• For daily swing highs, this is only hunted or stalked in price action after a swing low has been broken.

Retracement and Sell Opportunities

• When we see a retracement occur with a swing high, we know that we can start looking for sells running out previous day's lows.

• When the swing high is broken, we can look for Kendall number 3's highs to be rated and look for the buy stops to be ran out or intraday scalp.

Using Price Action to Find Trades

In this section, the speaker discusses how to use price action to find trades.

Shaded Area on Chart

• The speaker focuses our attention on a shaded area of price action on the chart.

• This area shows how price moves running out previous day's highs.

Time Zones

• The red area targets liquidity runs around two o'clock in the morning to four o'clock in the morning New York time.

• London is basically two o'clock to four o'clock in the morning, which is the sweet spot or best time to anticipate a higher load of form.

• New York is seven o'clock in the morning to ten o'clock in the morning.

Analyzing Price Action on CAD/JPY Chart

In this section, the speaker walks through analyzing price action on a CAD/JPY chart.

Bullishness Defined

• The expectation is that we want to see bullishness as defined earlier in the presentation.

• The speaker shows how price moves running out previous day's highs.

Liquidity Runs

• The expectation is to see the high be ran out and the expectation of moving through this high because there's going to be liquidity a bit above that high.

• Banks make runs on previous day's highs and lows, and if it's bullish, we want to see the high be ran out.

# Introduction to Scalping

In this section, the speaker introduces the concept of scalping and explains how to identify optimal trade entries.

Identifying Optimal Trade Entries

• Look for the highest body before a retracement.

• Anticipate a movement lower and target the optimal trade entry.

• Target previous day's high and anticipate a run on liquidity.

• Look for both intraday high and previous day's high as reference points for targeting.

# Taking Profit at Old Highs

In this section, the speaker discusses taking profit at old highs and scaling in.

Taking Profit at Old Highs

• Take profit at old highs and first scaling point.

• Target previous day's high as a logical level for retracement.

• Trades overlapping with colored levels have higher probability of profitability.

[#] New York Kill Zone

In this section, the speaker talks about trading opportunities during New York kill zone.

Trading During New York Kill Zone

• Optimal trade entry during New York kill zone creates buying opportunity.

• Nice little payouts can be achieved using one pair within a week by targeting logical levels under context of retracement using framework of bodies two bodies in terms of swing highs and swing lows.

# Trading Opportunities

In this section, the speaker discusses trading opportunities and optimal trade entry levels.

Retracement and Rotation

• A retracement of a day or so usually puts the cycle back in rotation.

• The price comes back down to the 70.5 level, which is a sweet spot for optimal trade entry.

• This scenario is good when it happens at the time of New York.

Stretching Your Patience

• When the market hits the 62% retracement level in London, it explodes and reaches for previous day's high.

• This can stretch your patience as a scalper.

• Being short trying is preferred because these are the conditions where it's most likely to happen.

Full Day's Down Close

• Whenever there is a full day's down close, it's like a big red neon sign saying start following me.

• This scenario indicates that markets are primed to have an optimal trade entry long and start running out previous day's highs.

Specifics About What We're Looking For

• When we have scenarios that present themselves with the highest form of probability and not seeing any breakdown on a daily chart, it gives us framework context and specifics about what we're looking for when we're looking for it.

• Kill zone, what price level Osmel trade entry, what are we targeting previous day's highs or yesterday's high or the day before yesterday's high - that's what we're targeting more bullish.

Conclusion

The speaker amplifies this approach in volume 2 and wraps up with concise more or less a trading plan in volume 30.