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ICT 9:30am Judas Swing Model - Explained In-depth
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ICT 9:30am Judas Swing Model - Explained In-depth

How to Trade the 930 Judah Swing Model

Introduction to the Judah Swing Model

  • The speaker introduces the 930 Judah Swing model, indicating they are currently engaged in a live trade. They mention that the market opened at 9:30 and traded lower, which presents an opportunity for buying during this manipulation phase.

Market Analysis and Anticipation

  • The speaker anticipates a price drop into a specific buy zone, noting that on the 15-minute timeframe, the price is consolidating. A level of sell-side liquidity has been taken out, suggesting a shift in market structure.
  • They identify a fair value gap that is being retested and expect it to act as support, potentially leading to higher prices. However, they remain cautious about targeting relative equal highs due to possible reversals in consolidation markets.

Key Levels and Timeframes

  • The speaker marks significant timeframes (midnight and 8:30 AM) on their chart as reference points for potential price manipulation beneath these levels before moving higher. They learned these strategies from ICT's mentorship program available on YouTube.
  • On the 5-minute timeframe, they observe relative equal lows where smart money might buy sell stops during retracements, anticipating quick upward movement towards buy-side liquidity. They emphasize wanting to see rapid price action through fair value gaps without returning below them.

Execution Strategy

  • At 9:30 AM, they plan to mark this opening point across different timeframes and expect some degree of sell-side liquidity manipulation before targeting higher prices around 16,979 based on their bias towards upward movement after taking out sell stops at lower levels.
  • The speaker discusses executing trades at specific levels while managing risk by trailing stops once certain highs are taken out; this strategy aims to protect against potential reversals after reaching target levels. If price takes out key highs without returning significantly lower, it indicates alignment with smart money movements.

Trading Insights and Strategies

Understanding Market Bias and Liquidity

  • The speaker discusses their higher bias towards a specific market level, indicating that 16,99 is likely to draw liquidity. They emphasize the uncertainty in trading predictions but highlight the probabilities involved.
  • A 7-day course is available for Discord members, covering ICT concepts from beginner to advanced levels. The speaker shares personal trading approaches and insights through this course.
  • An example of a trade setup is provided where NASDAQ's 15-minute timeframe targets 16,99. Members are informed about looking for manipulation beneath midnight and at 8:30 AM when anticipating higher prices.

Trade Execution and Analysis

  • Price action analysis shows that it broke above a bearish fair value gap, retested as support, and continued upward. The speaker expresses a bullish bias while monitoring potential speed bumps around the market open.
  • The expectation is set for price to reach higher levels (16,946.2), with an emphasis on maintaining momentum without reversing back to lower levels.

Risk Management Techniques

  • As the trade progresses positively, the speaker trails their stop loss to break even to secure profits while protecting against potential reversals below key support levels.
  • There’s a focus on ensuring that certain lows remain intact while aiming for buy-side liquidity targets above current price levels.

Anticipating Market Movements

  • The discussion highlights smart money strategies where buying occurs beneath previous lows after sell-side liquidity has been taken out. This anticipates a shift in market dynamics favoring buyers.
  • At 9:30 AM, early buyers may become sellers due to triggered sell stops; smart money capitalizes on this by resuming buying programs aimed at hitting targeted liquidity.

Conclusion of Insights

  • The video wraps up with an invitation for viewers interested in further learning about ICT concepts through live executions rather than just hindsight analysis.
Video description

Private Discord Community (3 day free trial) - https://whop.com/dandowdtrading/ DanDowdTrading Website - https://dandowdtrading.com/ My Social Media Twitter - https://twitter.com/DanDowdTrading Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/dandowdtrading/ Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.