Energy Systems: Transition & Innovation | Vaclav Smil

Introduction

The speaker introduces the event and the guest, Professor Schmidt. He also mentions that there will be a book signing after the talk.

Introducing Professor Schmidt

• The speaker introduces Professor Schmidt as a distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba in Canada.

• Bill Gates reads Vaclav Smil's books on energy and considers him an expert in the field.

Format of the Talk

• The speaker has prepared questions for Professor Schmidt but will open up to audience questions later.

• The topic of discussion is transition, specifically regarding energy.

Reading Habits and Writing Books

Professor Schmidt discusses his reading habits and how they have influenced his writing.

Reading Habits

• Professor Schmidt loves reading books and claims that 99.9% of what he knows comes from them.

• He keeps a list of every book he has read since August 30, 1969, not including science or technical books.

• He averages around 70 books per year but it varies depending on their length.

Writing Books

• Professor Schmidt has written over 40 books throughout his career.

• He used to program computers early in his career but eventually stopped because reality is too complex to be accurately represented by models.

Limitations of Models

Professor Schmidt discusses the limitations of models and how they can be misleading.

Limitations of Models

• Professor Schmidt argues that models are limited by the assumptions put into them.

• He gives an example of how a model built in 1985 would not have accounted for the collapse of the USSR, rise of China, or global warming.

Introduction to Energy

In this section, Professor Smith discusses the importance of energy and how it has transformed life over the centuries. He emphasizes that everything in the universe is a transformation of one form of energy into another.

The Fundamental Importance of Energy

• Energy is fundamental to everything in the universe.

• Money is an inadequate expression of energy flows.

• Most people do not have a sufficient appreciation for energy because it requires interdisciplinary education.

Food Energy and Civilization

• Food energy is the most fundamental form of energy on Earth.

• Civilization as we know it is fundamentally a fossil fuel civilization.

• Proper interdisciplinary education in subjects like physics, chemistry, biology, history, and economics are necessary to understand what energy has done for us.

The Future of Energy

• Renewable energies are still in their early stages and cannot replace fossil fuels yet.

• We will remain a fossil fuel civilization for a long time.

• The total volume of energy consumption is increasing faster than renewable energies can replace fossil fuels.

Global Warming and Climate Change

In this section, Professor Smith talks about global warming and climate change. He emphasizes that global warming is not something to believe in but rather a scientific fact that has been known since the 1820s.

The Principle of Global Warming

• Global warming is not something to believe in but rather a scientific fact based on the principle that some gases absorb radiation.

• Svante Arrhenius was one of the early scientists who discovered this principle and won the first Nobel Prize in Chemistry.

• Our best models predict that doubling CO2 will result in a few degrees Celsius increase in temperature.

The Urgency of Addressing Climate Change

• Climate change is a serious problem that requires urgent action.

• We need to reduce our carbon emissions to prevent catastrophic consequences.

• The transition to renewable energies needs to happen faster, but it is difficult because the total volume of energy consumption is increasing.

The Problem with Setting a Specific Temperature Target

In this section, the speaker discusses the issue with setting a specific temperature target to combat climate change.

Arbitrary Temperature Targets

• The speaker is appalled by the use of two degrees Celsius as a target for limiting global warming.

• The speaker argues that two degrees Celsius is an arbitrary number and questions why it was chosen over 1.85 or 2.15 degrees Celsius.

• The speaker suggests that even 1.5 degrees Celsius may be too much for certain parts of the biosphere, and we do not know enough about the complex behavioral biosphere to say that one and a half is not harmful enough.

Transitioning to Electric Cars

In this section, the speaker talks about electric cars and their impact on reducing carbon emissions.

No Such Thing as Electric Cars

• The speaker argues that there is no such thing as an electric car because most of the world's electricity is produced by fossil fuels.

• Only four jurisdictions on the planet are fully hydrogen-electric cars, while other countries still rely heavily on fossil fuels.

• As long as most of the world's electricity will be produced by fossil fuels, zero-emission vehicles will not have zero emissions.

Strategies for Reducing Carbon Emissions

In this section, the speaker discusses strategies for reducing carbon emissions.

Constant Transitioning

• The speaker argues that transitioning to new technologies is not a new concept and has been happening constantly.

• As people become wealthier, they tend to consume more energy and resources, leading to increased carbon emissions.

• The speaker suggests that the best strategy for reducing carbon emissions is to set milestones and signposts for transitioning to cleaner technologies.

Writing an Essay and Energy Efficiency

In this section, the speaker talks about his experience with energy efficiency and how he wrote an essay for a professional journal.

Experience with Energy Efficiency

• The speaker talks about burning wood in a furnace that was only 15-20% efficient.

• He then moved to Prague where lignite was used, which is only around 35% efficient.

• After moving to Pennsylvania, he lived in a house heated by oil which was only around 50% efficient.

• The speaker designed his own super-efficient energy system which has improved from 65% to 97% efficiency over time.

Innovation and Transition

• The speaker believes that innovation happens organically without the need for committees or regulation.

• He gives an example of the Boeing 787 plane which consumes 70% less energy per passenger kilometer than the first Boeing 707 in 1958 due to new materials and better engines.

• The speaker discusses Germany's "energy vendor" plan, stating that it is a bold move but also very ideological. He questions how modern economies can rely on solar electricity when typical load factors are only around 11%.

Conclusion

The speaker believes that transitions towards greater energy efficiency will happen organically over time through innovation rather than through committees or regulation.

The Challenges of Germany's Energy Transition

In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges faced by Germany in its energy transition.

High Electricity Prices

• Germany has about 90 gigawatts in fossil fuel and nuclear sources, including 10 gigawatts in wind and solar.

• As a result, they have some of the highest electricity prices in Europe.

• Large German companies like Volkswagen and Siemens are exempt from paying these high prices, which is socially unjust.

Organic Development vs. Forced Expansion

• Doubling installed capacity for wind and solar is not an effective way to go about it.

• China is an example of how forcing expansion can lead to problems with fluctuating energy production.

• Letting development happen more organically would be a better approach.

Offshore Wind Power

• Offshore wind power is a good option because it doesn't affect people's daily lives as much as onshore wind power does.

• However, bringing high voltage lines undersea to connect offshore wind farms to the grid can be expensive.

Sensible Subsidies

• Historically, subsidies have been given for many types of energy production.

• Sensible subsidies should be given for renewable energy production that makes sense economically.

Investing in the Next Generation

The speaker discusses the benefits of investing 10% annually and how it can double in seven years. They also mention an old Latin proverb, "Festina lente," which means to rush slowly.

Benefits of Investing 10% Annually

• Investing 10% annually can double in seven years.

• The Truman's knew about this concept and played games with it in college.

• Rushing slowly is important for developing regularity.

Electrifying Everything

The speaker talks about the idea of electrifying everything and using electricity for heating. They question the feasibility of this idea and discuss the need for numbers to support it.

Challenges with Electrifying Heating

• Heating is often left out of discussions about energy and global warming.

• Approximately one billion people on Earth need heating, but most discussions focus on cars, satellites, robots, etc.

• It is difficult to electrify heating because it requires a lot of energy.

• It is relatively easy to electrify cars compared to heating because cars are limited by their driving range.

Challenges with Electrifying Cars

• Cars have become heavier over time, making them more difficult to electrify.

• It doesn't make sense to electrify large vehicles like tanks driven by a single person.

• Driving range is still a limitation for electric cars.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes that while it may be feasible to electrify some things, such as cars, it may not be possible or practical to electrify everything.

The Importance of Steel and Fossil Fuels

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of steel and fossil fuels in modern civilization.

The Significance of Steel

• Worldwide, 1.6 billion tons of steel are produced annually.

• About 600 million tons of this is recycled old steel.

• There is no old steel in China or India, so they have to produce it from scratch by digging up iron ore and producing coal for coke to smelt it in a blast furnace.

• Steel is fundamental to modern society as everything from buildings to machines are made from it.

The Importance of Fossil Fuels

• Ammonia synthesis is crucial for nitrogen fertilizer which feeds half of humanity. Without ammonia synthesis, there would not be enough nitrogen to feed everyone even if all human and animal waste was recycled.

• Practically all ammonia production uses natural gas or crude oil, making it a fossil fuel product.

• Other fundamental products like plastics also rely on fossil fuels.

• Cement production also relies on fossil fuels and is essential for infrastructure development.

Transitioning to Clean Energy

• Bill Gates believes that we can transition to clean energy faster than the speaker does due to his optimistic American nature.

• However, both agree that we need more inventions and breakthroughs in technology to make this possible.

The Challenge of Inventing New Things

In this section, the speaker discusses the challenge of inventing new things and how throwing money at a problem may not be enough to solve it.

Inventing New Things

• The speaker believes that while we can eventually invent new things, throwing money at a problem is not enough to solve it.

• He notes that there are many environmental problems that need to be addressed, such as deforestation and soil erosion.

Soil Erosion and Deforestation

This section focuses on the issue of soil erosion and deforestation.

Soil Erosion

• Soil erosion is a global problem caused by the cultivation of more and more soils.

• Cover crops like alfalfa or wheat canopy can help prevent rain from eroding soil.

• However, planting corn before the canopy closes can lead to significant soil erosion due to heavy rainfall.

Deforestation

• Deforestation is another major environmental issue that needs attention.

• Reforestation efforts have been successful in some areas but often result in mono-specific or impoverished forestry.

Environmental Problems

This section covers various environmental problems such as plastic pollution, dead zones in oceans, and other issues.

Environmental Issues

• Dumping millions of tons of plastic into the ocean has led to plastic pollution in oceans.

• Dead zones in the ocean are created by nitrogen feeding algae, which then sink to the bottom and deprive oxygen.

• Soil erosion is a global problem that needs attention.

• Deforestation is another major environmental issue that needs attention.

Growth of Everything

In this section, the speaker talks about how growth is essential for everything, including bacteria, viruses, trees, babies, domestic animals and energy. He also mentions that all growth eventually follows a logistic curve or another type of escape.

Types of Curves

• The speaker explains that there are many types of curves that describe growth on a finite planet.

• He mentions that the idea of exponential growth forever is not possible because it will eventually follow a logistic curve or another type of escape.

Hyperbolic Growth

In this section, the speaker talks about hyperbolic growth and how it was predicted to happen in 2000.

Population Growth

• The speaker explains that human population was going hyperbolically up from 1880s to 1910.

• He mentions that the rate of population growth was constantly accelerating for most of the time.

• However, he notes that human population is growing ever so slowly now except for sub-Saharan Africa.

Skepticism

• The speaker expresses his skepticism towards predictions such as humanity expanding at the speed of light into the universe by 2014.

• He cites a major paper published in Science which predicted hyperbolic growth by 2027 but notes that human population has been growing ever so slowly since then.

Transitions

In this section, the speaker talks about transitions and how they have shaped modern society.

Demographic Transition

• The speaker explains how demographic transition from five babies per family to two and then no baby is one of the most underappreciated fundamental things of modernity.

• He notes that without this transition even high per capita incomes would not be enough to afford university education for every child.

Agricultural Transition

• The speaker explains how the agricultural transition has led to people eating high-quality protein and consuming more meat and milk.

Modern World

• The speaker talks about how the modern world was made by a concatenation combination and interaction of these great transitions.

• He mentions that he is working on a book about transitions which is 50% complete.

The Four Transitions

In this section, Professor Smith discusses the four transitions that have occurred in society: demographic, dietary, economic, and energy.

The Four Transitions

• Demographic transition

• Refers to the shift from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.

• Dietary transition

• Refers to changes in diet due to increased access to processed foods and meat consumption.

• Economic transition

• Refers to the shift from an agrarian-based economy to an industrialized one.

• Energy transition

• Refers to the shift from using traditional sources of energy (e.g. wood) to modern ones (e.g. natural gas).

Consequences of the Transitions

• Negative consequences

• These transitions have led to environmental problems such as pollution, deforestation, and plastic waste in oceans.

• Positive consequences

• These transitions have allowed for economic growth and development.

Conclusion

• Despite their benefits, these transitions have come at a cost. We are paying a dear price for these improvements through environmental degradation.