THE AMERICAN PSYCHO'S RETURN!! UFC Fight Night Houston Full Card Predicitons

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez Predictions

Overview of the Middleweight Title Picture

• The discussion begins with an introduction to UFC Fight Night featuring Strickland versus Hernandez, scheduled for February 21st in Houston, Texas.

• The speaker reflects on the middleweight title picture, noting that this fight is a title eliminator but acknowledges Naser and Imov as potential contenders for Hamza's belt.

• There’s speculation about why this matchup is gaining attention over others, possibly due to Ramadan approaching and both fighters being Muslim.

• Questions arise regarding what Strickland and Hernandez will do while waiting for Hamza Chamay's next fight, suggesting a lack of activity could lead to an interim title.

• A humorous scenario is presented where Strickland might use a "Money in the Bank" briefcase concept to challenge for the title.

Analysis of Upcoming Fights

• The speaker transitions into discussing the full card of fights, emphasizing that they will cover all preliminaries and main events.

• Key fighters are introduced: Nasin Immov (on a win streak), Shawn Strickland (ranked #3), and Anthony Hernandez (#4).

• There's concern about whether contenders like Immov will be overlooked if someone finishes their fight impressively compared to previous matchups.

Breakdown of Women's Flyweight Matchup

• The first fight discussed is between Carly Judas and Juliana Miller in women's flyweight; Judas has shown impressive striking skills.

• Both fighters have limited experience with only seven professional fights each; however, Miller has more competitive grappling experience despite her struggles in recent bouts.

• Carly Judas boasts a two-fight win streak with back-to-back TKO victories against notable opponents, showcasing her striking ability effectively.

• Juliana Miller's inactivity due to injury raises questions about her performance; she failed to secure submissions despite having opportunities in past fights.

• Carly Judas stands out among women fighters for her effective striking approach aimed at finishing fights rather than just scoring points.

Analysis of Upcoming Fights

Carly Judith vs. Mizuki

• Carly Judith recently faced Mizuki, a ranked fighter known for defeating Broen Walker. This highlights the competitive nature of their division.

• Both fighters have seven professional fights; however, Carly Judith appears to have a better understanding of what it takes to succeed in the UFC, suggesting her potential for growth and success.

• The prediction is that Carly Judith will win via TKO in the first round due to her skills and performance.

Jordan Levit's Featherweight Debut

• Jordan Levit is making his featherweight debut against Yadier Delvi after struggling at lightweight, indicating a strategic move to improve his chances in competition.

• Levit has faced tough opponents but may find more success at 145 pounds where he can match up better physically against heavy hitters.

• Yadier Delvi is undefeated with strong grappling skills, making this fight challenging for Levit who may not have a clear path to victory.

Fight Dynamics: Yadier Delvi vs. Jordan Levit

• Delvi possesses good jiu-jitsu and striking abilities that could give him an edge over Levit, who might struggle under pressure during grappling exchanges.

• Despite not having a height advantage, Delvi's strength allows him to manipulate opponents effectively during wrestling scenarios.

• Delvi’s striking power translates into effective kicks that can disrupt Levit’s game plan and create openings for takedowns.

Predictions for the Fight Outcome

• The expectation is that Delvi will secure a submission victory over Levit within the first round as he capitalizes on Levit's tendency to give up his back during transitions.

John Paul Labose Nani vs. Phil Row Analysis

Overview of Phil Row's Career

• Phil Row serves as a gatekeeper in the welterweight division, often losing to other gatekeepers while occasionally defeating lower-ranked fighters like Luca or Nico Price.

• His extensive experience includes grappling exhibitions against top-tier competitors such as Gordon Ryan and Craig Jones, showcasing his high-level training despite recent losses.

John Paul Labose Nani's Potential

• Labose Nani is gaining attention due to his impressive jiu-jitsu skills and overall fighting style, positioning him as a promising contender in this matchup against Row.

Analysis of John Paul Leosani vs. Phil Row Fight

Overview of John Paul Leosani's Skills

• John Paul Leosani is noted for his grappling skills, with three triangle choke finishes in his professional record, showcasing his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) proficiency.

• He has a keen ability to read opponents' guards and exploit defensive weaknesses, allowing him to land effective strikes like uppercuts and high kicks.

Matchup Insights: Leosani vs. Row

• Phil Row's best chance against Leosani lies in intercepting his level changes with counter strikes such as knees or uppercuts.

• Historical context shows that Row struggles when facing skilled grapplers; he previously lost to Jacobe Jones due to being outperformed on the ground.

Fight Dynamics and Predictions

• The prediction leans towards Leosani winning via TKO in round one, emphasizing his pressure and takedown integration as key factors against Row.

• There is hope for new prospects in the division, with expectations that Leosani could initiate a successful UFC career following this fight.

Ramse Brachimi vs. Puna Soryano Fight Breakdown

Recent Performances

• Ramse Brachimi comes off a strong performance against Austin Vanderford, while Puna Soryano recently won by grinding out Nikolai Veriteneov.

• Soryano’s last fight strategy involved controlling the opponent against the cage due to ineffective takedowns and striking.

Anticipated Fight Style

• The matchup is expected to be an engaging stand-up battle; however, Brachimi may capitalize on any mistakes made by Soryano during exchanges.

• Both fighters possess knockout power; however, Brachimi has shown significant improvement in striking since switching training facilities.

Strategic Considerations

• Brachimi's evolving skill set allows him to create openings through aggressive striking before transitioning into submission attempts if needed.

• Despite Soryano’s punching power, he has shown vulnerabilities when pressured or taken down by grapplers throughout previous fights.

Conclusion on Fighter Development

• Brachimi's recent training changes suggest he should not be judged solely based on past performances; he appears revitalized and more capable than before.

Fight Analysis: Ramsey vs. Puna Soryano

Overview of Fight Strategy

• The key for Ramsey in the fight against Puna Soryano is to avoid an early knockout and land significant strikes before engaging in grappling.

• Emphasis on maintaining a wrestling-focused game plan to create opportunities for finishing the fight, despite Soryano's power.

Prediction and Context

• The speaker predicts Ramsey will secure a submission victory in round two based on previous performance insights from Nikolai Veritinov's fight with Soryano.

Rematch Breakdown: Norah Cornell vs. Josyn Edwards

Historical Context

• This bout is a rematch; Cornell previously defeated Edwards under controversial circumstances where control time did not equate to damage.

Fighter Progression

• Josyn Edwards has shown rapid improvement since their last encounter, suggesting she may dominate this rematch.

• Cornell has faced setbacks against higher-ranked opponents, indicating potential stagnation in her career trajectory.

Fight Dynamics

• Edwards' striking capabilities have evolved significantly, which could be pivotal against Cornell’s shaky defense observed in past fights.

• The prediction leans towards Edwards winning decisively through effective striking integrated with takedown attempts.

Upcoming Matchup: Alden Cora vs. Luis Guru

Assessment of Fighters

• Uncertainty surrounds Luis Guru's skill set; he appears vulnerable after being outperformed by Jesus Aguilar and Oi Osborne.

Cora's Strengths

• Alden Cora possesses strong wrestling, takedown defense, and striking skills that position him favorably against Guru.

Competitive Landscape

• Both fighters are former Fury FC competitors; Cora is viewed as having better potential for success within the UFC due to his training environment and recent performances.

Conclusion on Matchup Potential

• The analysis suggests that Alden Cora’s improved grappling defense will be crucial against Guru’s questionable chin, making him a likely victor in this matchup.

UFC Fight Predictions and Analysis

Alden Korea vs. Unknown Opponent

• The speaker discusses Alden Korea's undefeated record prior to joining the UFC, highlighting a significant win over an ex-champion from his previous promotion.

• Despite this background, Korea faced a setback in his debut against a division gatekeeper, indicating the challenges of transitioning to the UFC.

• The prediction is made that Korea will win via TKO in the first round, suggesting confidence in his abilities and potential for a decisive victory.

OD Osborne vs. Alibi Adirus

• The speaker expresses surprise at Alibi Adirus returning to the UFC after an upset loss to Joseph Morales at UFC 319.

• Adirus struggled significantly during that fight, being outstruck and ultimately losing by triangle choke, raising concerns about his grappling skills.

• There’s optimism for OD Osborne's chances if he maintains pressure on Adirus; however, past performances raise doubts about Osborne's consistency under pressure.

• A prediction is made for a round one KO for OD Osborne based on his experience against tougher opponents compared to Adirus.

Chidy Jookuani vs. Carlos Lial

• Discussion shifts to Chidy Jookuani facing Carlos Lial; Lial's recent knockout loss raises questions about his chin and ability to withstand strikes.

• Jookuani is noted as a large welterweight who may pose significant challenges for Lial due to size and striking capabilities.

• Concerns are raised regarding Lial’s grappling defense after being submitted previously; it’s suggested that he may struggle against effective strikers like Jookuani.

• Historical context from Lial’s fights in PFL indicates difficulties when facing tall kickboxers with lateral movement, which could be replicated by Jookuani.

This structured summary captures key insights from the transcript while providing timestamps for easy reference.

Fight Analysis and Predictions

Overview of the Fight Dynamics

• The discussion begins with strategies for Chitty and Jookoani, suggesting he can either drop a knee or throw a wide hook to potentially secure a knockout, similar to Muslim Salakov's previous fight.

• There's an emphasis on Carlos Seiel's strategy of cage wrestling, which may not be enough to win if Jookoani maintains significant output outside of clinch exchanges.

Historical Context of Fights in Houston

• The speaker reminisces about notable fights held at the Toyota Center in Houston, including Oliver vs. Chandler and Ferguson vs. Darush, highlighting the venue's significance in UFC history.

• Mentioned fighters like Matt Schnell and Dererick Lewis have had memorable moments in Houston, although Lewis has faced tough losses there.

Matchup Breakdown: Zach Ree vs. Michelle Pereira

• Zach Ree is described as having decent grappling skills but often takes unnecessary damage by playing into his opponent’s strengths; this could be problematic against Michelle Pereira.

• Ree's past performances indicate he tends to absorb strikes before becoming active; there's uncertainty about Pereira’s boxing skills based on recent performances.

Fight Strategy Considerations

• The analysis suggests that Ree needs to utilize his grappling effectively to avoid being knocked out early by Pereira, who has been given an easier matchup compared to his last three fights.

• Concerns are raised about both fighters' abilities to avoid getting caught early; Ree has shown potential but also vulnerability.

Predictions for Upcoming Fights

• The speaker leans towards picking Zachary Ree due to his boxing skills and physicality but acknowledges the risk involved for both fighters.

• A prediction is made that Ree will win via TKO in round two based on his ability to pressure Pereira effectively throughout the fight.

Short Notice Replacement: Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell

• Josiah Harrell steps in on short notice for Saky Co., whose absence is noted as disappointing due to Co.'s strong wrestling background that would challenge Jacobe Smith significantly.

UFC Fight Preview: Josiah Harold vs. Jacobe Smith

Overview of Josiah Harold

• Discussion on the anticipation for a fight between Josiah Harold and Jacobe Smith, highlighting the missed opportunity to see Harold's previous matchup against JDM.

• Notable health issues faced by Harold, including a rare brain disease that required surgical intervention before his return to fighting.

• Harold boasts an undefeated record of 11-0, primarily showcasing his wrestling skills which may serve as a counter to Smith's abilities.

Fight Analysis: Josiah Harold vs. Jacobe Smith

• Despite being impressed with Harold's skill set, there is caution due to his lack of UFC experience compared to Smith’s two fights in the organization.

• The speaker expresses skepticism about picking Harold over Smith but acknowledges that he could pose a stylistic challenge due to his wrestling background.

• Prediction leans towards a decision win for Jacobe Smith, citing his experience and striking reliability over Harold’s potential early aggression.

Potential Outcomes and Expectations

• Speculation on the possibility of an early knockout from either fighter; excitement about their grappling exchanges if they occur.

• Transitioning into analysis of Sergey Spivok versus Ante Delaya, noting Spivok's ranking and recent performance struggles in the UFC.

Heavyweight Matchup: Sergey Spivok vs. Ante Delaya

Background on Fighters

• Introduction of Sergey Spivok as ranked number seven in heavyweight division facing ninth-ranked Ante Delaya; context provided regarding past performances.

Game Plan Insights

• Comparison drawn between Delaya’s career trajectory and Tom Aspenol’s approach within the heavyweight division; suggests strategic advantages based on prior experiences.

• Observations made about Delaya adopting a more aggressive striking style compared to earlier bouts where he relied on counter-punching tactics.

Tactical Breakdown

• Analysis of how Delaya might implement strategies seen in Aspenol's fight against Spivok, focusing on effective striking while managing takedown threats.

• Anticipation for fast entries and powerful strikes from Delaya during exchanges, potentially mirroring successful techniques used by Aspenol against similar opponents.

Fight Predictions and Analysis

Overview of Upcoming Fights

• The speaker discusses the upcoming fight, predicting that Delay will win via round one TKO, drawing parallels to Tom Aspenol's fighting style.

• Emphasizes that while Delay is lighter than his opponent Sergey Speedbok, he possesses skills similar to Aspenol which may allow him to avoid takedowns effectively.

Matchup: Dan Eay vs. Melaza

• Introduces the matchup between Dan Eay (ranked 14) and unranked Melaza, highlighting the risk of Melaza being knocked out but ultimately favoring Costa in this bout.

• Describes Dan Eay as a "quintessential gatekeeper" in the featherweight division, noting his experience against top fighters since 2020.

Performance Insights

• Lists Eay's notable victories over fighters like Gavin Tucker and Damon Jackson while acknowledging his losses to ranked opponents such as Calvin Kedar and Josh Emit.

• Suggests that Malcus Alcaso embodies qualities from both Eay’s wins and losses, indicating a well-rounded skill set.

Cardio and Durability Concerns

• Raises concerns about Alcaso's cardio past five minutes based on previous fights where he struggled when fatigued.

• Predicts that if Alcaso can maintain energy levels, he could secure a submission victory within the first five minutes due to his grappling prowess.

Fight Strategy Predictions

• Discusses Alcaso's diverse skill set including grappling and striking abilities; predicts he will control the fight pace against Eay.

• Anticipates a grappling-heavy approach from Alcaso early in the fight with potential for submissions or stand-up exchanges throughout three rounds.

Final Prediction for Costa vs. Eay

• Concludes with confidence in Alcaso winning by submission or decision after wearing down Eay through effective striking and grappling strategies.

Co-Main Event: Jeff Neil vs. Earl Smetic

• Questions why Jeff Neil versus Earl Smetic is positioned as co-main event but suggests it will end in a knockout due to both fighters' aggressive styles.

Fighter Dynamics

• Highlights Neil’s recent struggles but believes this matchup favors him significantly against Smetic who has shown vulnerability in previous fights.

Analysis of Upcoming Fights: Jeff Neil vs. Eros Medic and Strickland vs. Hernandez

Jeff Neil vs. Eros Medic

• Garry and Carlos Pratees successfully defeated Jeff Neil due to their elite skills and finesse, which Eros Medic lacks.

• Jeff Neil enters this fight with newfound clarity from sobriety, potentially enhancing his focus for the matchup against Eros Medic.

• Eros Medic's recent KO victories are overshadowed by past struggles, including being knocked out in earlier fights, raising concerns about his readiness.

• There is speculation that Eros Medic is being set up for a KO loss to maintain Jeff Neil's ranking while promoting another fighter outside the top 15.

• The prediction leans towards a first-round KO for Jeff Neil if he can effectively utilize lateral movement and low kicks against Eros Medic.

Main Event: Strickland vs. Hernandez

• The main event features Sean Strickland ranked third versus Anthony Hernandez ranked fourth in the middleweight division, with many underestimating Strickland's capabilities.

• Despite Anthony Hernandez’s impressive performances, there are doubts about his ability to dominate Strickland based on previous competitive fights.

• Critics overlook that Strickland has faced tough opponents and performed competitively; he should not be dismissed based on past boring performances or grappling losses.

• Since becoming a middleweight champion, Strickland has improved significantly; he is difficult to control or take down due to his counter-wrestling skills.

• Effective striking against Strickland requires elusive head movement and speed; fighters must navigate his defensive range effectively to score points.

Key Insights on Fight Dynamics

• In stand-up exchanges, fighters need unique strategies to penetrate Strickland’s defense; Drius Duplesi succeeded using unconventional techniques against him.

• Anthony Hernandez displayed resilience by absorbing strikes from Roman Dele but will face a different challenge against the more skilled striker in Sean Strickland.

• Confidence plays a crucial role in both fighters' approaches; understanding the difficulty of the matchup will influence their performance during the fight.

Analysis of Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez Fight

Strickland's Perspective on Hernandez

• Sean Strickland believes that Anthony Hernandez may be a better grappler than Hamza Chimaev in terms of consistent output over five rounds, indicating the seriousness with which he views Hernandez as a threat.

• Strickland acknowledges that defeating Hernandez is crucial for him to reclaim his championship status, emphasizing the importance of neutralizing Hernandez's grappling abilities.

Grappling Dynamics in the Fight

• The analysis highlights that Anthony Hernandez relies heavily on wrestling to be effective, contrasting with other grapplers who can succeed without it.

• Strickland is expected to disrupt Hernandez’s game plan by applying forward pressure and preventing him from successfully executing takedowns, leading to a potential win for Strickland.

Fight Predictions and Expectations

• The prediction suggests that the fight may have dull moments due to Hernandez's reluctance to engage first, while Strickland will maintain offensive pressure.

• A specific prediction is made for Strickland winning via TKO in round four, reflecting confidence in his ability to wear down and dominate Hernandez throughout the match.

Community Engagement and Personal Insights

• The speaker expresses indifference towards their predictions being wrong as long as there are exciting finishes in the fights scheduled for the week.

Controversial Incident Involving Sean Strickland

• A curious incident is mentioned where Sean Strickland was seen with Kyle Rittenhouse at Extreme Couture gym, raising questions about how they connected and what led to this meeting.

• Speculation arises regarding whether it was initiated by either party reaching out or if it was an unexpected encounter, highlighting its absurdity.