ICT On BitCoin

Discussion on New Markets and Market Making

Introduction to Cryptocurrency Perspective

• The speaker introduces the topic of blockchain, emphasizing their lack of personal experience in trading cryptocurrencies but acknowledging a growing interest due to an expanding subscriber base from the crypto community.

Insights on Trading Experience

• Despite not having traded crypto, the speaker mentions that many subscribers find their trading concepts applicable to this asset class, particularly drawing from their expertise in Forex.

Characteristics of Price Action

• The speaker discusses looking for evidence supporting price action characteristics, suggesting that smart money is involved in cryptocurrency markets despite its newness and volatility.

Skepticism Towards Cryptocurrency

• The speaker expresses skepticism about the cryptocurrency market, comparing it to penny stocks and highlighting concerns over perceived value versus actual utility as a currency replacement.

Historical Context and Predictions

• Reflecting on past predictions, the speaker recalls calling Bitcoin's market high in December 2017 and argues against buying at inflated prices based on historical data analysis.

Market Dynamics and Manipulation

Perception of Market Stability

• The speaker notes that traders avoid using the term "crash" regarding cryptocurrency declines due to its implications, while also likening crypto's reputation to that of penny stocks characterized by pump-and-dump schemes.

Comparison with Traditional Banking Systems

• The argument is made that cryptocurrencies are not fundamentally different from traditional banking systems; rather, they represent another iteration within financial markets initiated by banks themselves.

Future Potential of Crypto

• While uncertain about cryptocurrency's future role, the speaker acknowledges recent efforts to study it more closely during a holiday break when traditional Forex trading is less active.

Understanding Price Action in Crypto

Analyzing Market Behavior

• The focus shifts towards understanding how banking algorithms influence price delivery in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This suggests potential manipulation within these markets similar to traditional assets.

Hallmarks of Institutional Trading

• A general overview will be provided regarding how market making occurs and its relevance to cryptocurrencies. This includes identifying key indicators used by institutions when analyzing price action.

Price Distribution Patterns

Pump-and-Dump Phenomenon

• Discussion centers around pricing strategies related to distribution patterns often seen in volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. These patterns resemble those observed in penny stocks where rapid price increases lead to subsequent crashes.

Anticipating Market Reversals

• The speaker explains how significant price movements are not random but strategically orchestrated by smart money aiming for specific levels before offloading positions.

Timing Analysis for Trading Strategies

Market Dynamics and Liquidity Pools

Understanding Key Timeframes in Trading

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of specific timeframes in New York trading, particularly from 7 AM to 10 AM, where price movements can indicate liquidity pools.

• A level at 16,450 is highlighted as a significant resistance point, suggesting that traders may be looking to sell short at this level.

Price Action and Market Behavior

• The concept of equal highs and lows is introduced; equal lows represent potential sell stops while equal highs indicate buy stops.

• During the London session, long positions are likely to have their stop losses triggered below these equal lows, leading to market movement.

Anticipating Market Reversals

• As price approaches the 16,450 level again after a retracement, the speaker anticipates a possible reversal scenario due to distribution at this resistance point.

• After reaching the target level twice before breaking down, further analysis indicates another run below equal lows followed by a rally.

Trading Patterns and Strategies

• The speaker discusses specific trading patterns taught in their mentorship program, emphasizing optimal trade entry (OTE) strategies based on historical data.

• An objective price target of around 15,100 or 15,1100 is set based on observed market behavior throughout the week.

Insights into Cryptocurrency Trading

• Although initially skeptical about cryptocurrency trading, the speaker has begun exploring it due to community interest and positive feedback regarding their concepts' applicability.

• Mentorship offerings are mentioned as non-public but include free resources available on their website for those interested in learning more about trading principles.

Core Principles of Trading Education

• The speaker stresses that their teachings are grounded in over 20 years of experience with an institutional perspective focused on price action rather than indicators or gimmicks.

• A warning against blending different trading disciplines is given; adherence to core principles is essential for understanding and applying their methods effectively.

Optimal Trade Entry Techniques

• Emphasis is placed on investigating suggested techniques independently rather than taking them at face value; personal verification enhances understanding.

• Specific levels for potential trades are outlined ahead of time based on symmetrical price wings and Fibonacci retracement levels discussed in previous videos.

Future Price Objectives

• Initial downside objectives are established with clear targets set lower than current prices; these levels were communicated publicly through social media channels for transparency.

ICT Market Maker Sell Model

Introduction to the ICT Market Maker Sell Model

• The speaker introduces the ICT market maker sell model, noting its resemblance to Wyckoff's theory of markup and markdown.

• The speaker emphasizes that while there are similarities with Wyckoff, their approach diverges significantly; they encourage viewers to study Wyckoff for a broader understanding.

Distinction from Traditional Models

• The speaker critiques traditional retail trading education, asserting that many concepts are merely regurgitated without deeper insight.

• They stress the importance of examining their model critically rather than dismissing it as just another version of existing theories.

Understanding Accumulation Phases

• The original base of accumulation is identified as crucial; price movements indicate smart money accumulating long positions.

• The speaker categorizes various trading ranges and highlights the significance of dynamic price action in identifying key areas for analysis.

Market Making Dynamics

• Two types of market making are discussed: facilitating trades between traders and in-house market making for profit generation.

• Buyers at different levels may exit positions entirely or hedge by selling more as prices fluctuate, illustrating complex trading strategies.

Smart Money Behavior and Price Action

• During consolidations, smart money buying is highlighted; these phases signal potential future price targets based on higher time frame analysis.

• The concept of "pump and dump" is introduced, where prices rally before a significant sell-off occurs to target stop losses set by less informed traders.

Conclusion on Price Objectives

• A summary of the pump reversal strategy indicates how it aims to eliminate weak holders who fail to manage risk effectively.

Market Analysis and Predictions for Bitcoin

Price Action Observations

• The price briefly dipped below the second level objective but did not reach the anticipated lower target, indicating a retracement during trading on December 27th.

• A low was expected to form between 10 AM and noon New York time, aligning with the daily range's opposite end after a downtrend throughout the day.

• The speaker noted that significant volume had already been established by banks, suggesting that the market range would be capped moving forward into December 28th.

Market Maker Model Insights

• A screen capture illustrated original consolidation points targeted for stops, highlighting smart money accumulation and subsequent redistribution leading back to previous levels.

• Although a complete cycle was observed, there is speculation about further declines in price; expectations are set for potential movement towards lower levels.

Anticipating Market Movements

• The speaker shares insights publicly to provide transparency regarding their predictions rather than reflecting on past events without context.

• Current price action around $16,450 is deemed critical; this level is highlighted as significant for anticipating sell-offs.

Historical Context of Bitcoin Prices

• Analyzing specific candles reveals highs near $19,697 and $19,797; a prediction was made against reaching $20,000 based on these patterns.

• On December 17th, prior warnings were issued about potential market maker traps due to false breakouts above all-time highs.

Public Sentiment and Market Dynamics

• Widespread excitement about Bitcoin's rise led many to predict continued increases toward $30,000 or even higher benchmarks like $150,000.

• Personal anecdotes illustrate how mainstream interest peaked when even non-traders began discussing Bitcoin investments.

Indicators of Market Reversal

• The speaker notes that if even casual observers are asking about Bitcoin trading opportunities, it may signal an impending market peak.

• A significant drop followed initial predictions of a smaller decline (2,000 - 2,500 points), ultimately resulting in over a 9,000-point slide viewed as more than just a correction.

Conclusion on Market Trends

• Prior concerns about Bitcoin crashing were expressed before notable price movements occurred; public sentiment indicated excessive optimism at key resistance levels.

Understanding Crypto Trading Dynamics

The Role of Banks in Crypto Trading

• The speaker emphasizes that banks are actively involved in crypto trading, influencing price movements and market dynamics.

• They assert that their trading methods align with institutional perspectives rather than retail indicators, focusing solely on price action.

Key Indicators for Trading

• The speaker identifies four critical indicators: open, high, low, and close. Mastery of these is deemed essential for effective trading.

• They explain the significance of understanding price action relative to a barometer like the dollar index to gauge relative strength.

Analyzing Price Movements

• A specific high at 16,261 is noted as pivotal; the analysis suggests a potential downward movement after violating this level.

• Discussion includes how long holders may be forced to exit positions when prices drop below certain levels, leading to market repricing.

Market Behavior and Patterns

• The speaker describes a scenario where short sellers' stop losses are triggered above recent highs before further declines occur.

• Transitioning to a monthly perspective reveals patterns in price action that indicate potential future movements.

Identifying Key Levels and Targets

• A bearish order block is identified around 16,450 as crucial for anticipating market reactions.

• The discussion highlights how accumulation phases precede significant downward moves once buy stops are cleared.

Future Price Predictions

• Expectations are set for Bitcoin's price targets below 13,000, potentially reaching as low as 5,000 if momentum continues downwards.

• A critical resistance level is established at 15,100; failure to breach this indicates a bearish outlook for Bitcoin moving forward.

Integration with Broader Crypto Concepts

Community Engagement and Mentorship Opportunities

Forum Participation Guidelines

• The forum is free to join, fostering a respectful community. Unruly behavior or trolling will lead to ISP disabling for offenders.

Personal Trading Schedule

• The speaker typically stays away from the markets until the third week of January each year, taking time off around Thanksgiving.

Mentorship Program Details

• A new mentorship program will open in January 2018, priced at $150 via PayPal for ongoing education and higher-level learning.

• Enrollment is open every month with no closing date; participants can join later if needed.

Course Structure and Content

• The mentorship includes 12 modules covering core content but offers more extensive insights not available in free tutorials.

• This private community shares exclusive knowledge that won't be made public on platforms like YouTube or Twitter.

Commitment and Terms of Service

• Total cost for the mentorship is $1800, payable in 12 installments. Participants must commit fully as quitting disallows rejoining.

• There are no refunds, and an NDA is required to protect the material taught within the mentorship group.

Market Insights and Trading Philosophy

Understanding Market Dynamics

• The speaker emphasizes that trading concepts apply across various markets including crypto, Forex, futures, and stocks due to recurring patterns.

Critique of Crypto Community Sentiment

• While acknowledging strong loyalty within the crypto community, the speaker critiques irrational buying behaviors during market highs (e.g., Bitcoin at $18,000).

Market Manipulation Awareness

• Markets are likened to a casino where understanding manipulation provides traders with an advantage over mass psychology.

Trading Strategy vs. Gambling Mentality

• The speaker advocates for active trading rather than holding investments indefinitely ("HODL"), arguing that many investors gamble instead of making informed trades.

Future Market Predictions

Investment Strategies in a Volatile Market

Long-Term Investment Perspective

• The speaker reflects on the cyclical nature of markets, suggesting that current conditions may be viewed positively in 10 to 20 years. They advocate for investing during downturns rather than at peaks.

• Emphasizes the importance of entering positions when prices are low and gradually building investments as prices rise, contrasting this with common behaviors of buying high due to social influences.

Trading Philosophy

• The speaker aligns their trading strategy with banking practices, advocating for buying during price declines and selling during increases. This method is framed as a disciplined approach to trading.

• Crypto is highlighted as an asset class that follows similar trading principles, reinforcing the idea that strategic entry and exit points are crucial regardless of market type.

Personal Experience with Crypto

• The speaker shares a personal anecdote about their nephew's initial success in crypto trading, noting that despite his lack of knowledge, he benefited from market trends.

• Despite advising their nephew to take profits and reinvest at lower prices, the speaker acknowledges that he has not followed this advice. This illustrates the challenges of influencing others' investment decisions within family dynamics.

Community Influence