2022 ICT Mentorship Market Review - July 22, 2022

Market Review and Analysis

Overview of Dollar Index Movement

• The dollar index is trading back down into a range, with previous predictions indicating a likely drop into this area. A significant down day occurred on Tuesday, leading to consolidation on Wednesday and Thursday.

Time Frame Analysis

• Transitioning to a lower time frame reveals that trading has been influenced by the old 107.61 level fair value gap, with support found at the 106.42 level.

Market Dynamics and Levels

• Historical data shows relative equal lows were swept down after buy-side liquidity was taken out. A rebound occurred in an imbalance zone, returning to a bearish order block.

Euro Dollar Insights

• The euro-dollar pair may see short-term relief if it touches the 105 levels; however, there has been no support found above the fair value gap drawn on the daily chart.

Consolidation Patterns

• The week has shown consolidation without significant movement; expectations are for potential upward movement towards the 1.0340 level if certain gaps are influential.

Anticipated Volatility Next Week

• Current market conditions suggest that after a week of consolidation, large range events are expected next week due to sell-side attacks and rebalancing imbalances.

British Pound vs US Dollar (Cable)

• The daily chart for cable indicates almost complete rebalancing; however, recent movements appear sloppy compared to euro-dollar dynamics.

Trading Strategy Considerations

• High probability trades require one-sided market behavior; ambiguity in current trends makes cable less appealing for trading strategies focused on clear directional moves.

Gold Market Observations

• Recent analysis indicated potential draws on liquidity around specific lows in gold prices; expectations of dollar weakness could lead to upward movements in gold prices as well.

Closing Thoughts on Market Behavior

Market Analysis and Predictions for E-Mini S&P

Key Price Levels and Market Sentiment

• The speaker anticipates a potential price movement towards the 1750-1755 range, suggesting that if the dollar shows weakness, this level could be reached within the week.

• A daily chart analysis of the e-mini S&P indicates identified buy-side liquidity levels based on previous sell-side activity, predicting upward movement in these areas.

• The market has shown a consistent upward trend, reaching a high of 4016.25, closely aligning with previously outlined objectives for buy-side liquidity.

Understanding Market Structure

• The speaker highlights a bearish order block on the chart, emphasizing its significance due to being the highest closed candle with a substantial body.

• A lower time frame analysis reveals an hourly chart where support was found at key levels during recent trading sessions.

Imbalances and Trading Strategies

• Discussion of imbalances suggests that traders should be cautious as there may be one more upward move before potential sell-offs occur next week.

• If prices retrace to certain levels without sustaining gains on an hourly basis, smaller time frames can be utilized to identify fractal patterns for potential selling opportunities.

Weekend Uncertainties and Market Openings

• The speaker expresses uncertainty regarding market openings on Sundays due to unpredictable events that could impact trading sentiment over weekends.

• Emphasizes that unexpected global events can lead to significant market gaps that may disrupt prior analyses made during the week.

Weekly Outlook and Closing Thoughts

• Insights into how weekly highs and lows are formed are shared; however, actual predictions remain uncertain until observing Sunday’s opening trades.

• The importance of monitoring Sunday trading is reiterated as it often sets the tone for Monday's market behavior.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Understanding Market Imbalances

• The discussion begins with an analysis of market imbalances, highlighting how price movements occur in various time frames (15-minute, 5-minute, etc.) and the significance of these levels.

• A focus on the two-minute chart reveals redundancy in trading patterns; however, the one-minute chart provides clearer insights into market behavior.

• The concept of a "fair value gap" is introduced, emphasizing its importance as prices approach specific levels like 4,000.75 and daily imbalances.

Utilizing Fibonacci for Range Measurement

• Fibonacci retracement levels are discussed as tools for measuring price ranges; equilibrium points are identified to determine short positions effectively.

• Specific price actions are noted where trades reach significant levels (3967.25), indicating potential profit-taking opportunities during lunch hours.

Daily Market Recap Techniques

• The speaker reflects on their focus primarily on the E-mini S&P rather than Nasdaq, noting a fair value gap that could influence future trading decisions.

• Observations about liquidity pools and their interactions with market trends are shared, suggesting strategies for upcoming trading sessions.

Chart Analysis and Trading Decisions

• Relative equal lows are highlighted as critical areas where buy-side attacks occur; adjustments to chart colors indicate shifts in market sentiment.

• Emphasis is placed on using hourly and 15-minute timeframes for daily recaps to identify liquidity pools effectively.

Comparative Analysis: S&P vs. Nasdaq

• A comparison between S&P and Nasdaq highlights why certain markets may be more favorable for trading based on visible fair value gaps.

• The speaker discusses the importance of identifying premium pricing in S&P compared to Nasdaq while framing trade setups around key candle formations.

Final Thoughts on Trading Strategy

• Insights into timing trades based on market conditions suggest that traders should remain vigilant about price movements within established ranges.

Bitcoin and Crypto Market Insights

General Sentiments on Bitcoin

• The speaker expresses a reluctance to discuss Bitcoin, indicating a lack of faith in the cryptocurrency market.

• Mentions a previous prediction about trading into a "favorite gap," suggesting potential price movements based on past patterns.

Skepticism Towards Cryptocurrency

• The speaker believes cryptocurrencies are likely to go to zero, acknowledging that this view may not be popular but is firmly held.

• Emphasizes an objective stance, stating no personal investment or interest in crypto, which allows for unbiased analysis.

Price Predictions and Market Behavior

• Predicts potential price levels for Bitcoin, estimating $14,250 as a significant point and suggesting that $10,000 could also be likely.

• Discusses the possibility of aggressive downward movement in prices if certain highs are not surpassed.

Critique of XRP and Other Cryptocurrencies

• Expresses skepticism towards XRP's performance, labeling it as "dead money" due to its stagnant value below $1.

• Compares XRP to penny stocks, arguing that low valuations indicate high risk without substantial growth prospects.

Comparison with Traditional Markets

• Contrasts cryptocurrencies with traditional markets like the S&P and Nasdaq, asserting that the latter have inherent value and stability.

• States that while traditional markets can crash, they are unlikely to reach zero like cryptocurrencies might.

Personal Trading Experience Reflection

• Reflecting on past experiences with penny stocks reveals a realization about their unpredictability compared to more stable markets.

The Reluctance to Embrace Crypto

Personal Stance on Cryptocurrency

• The speaker expresses a firm refusal to engage with cryptocurrency, citing the absence of certain elements in the asset class that would make it appealing.

• They acknowledge the interest surrounding crypto due to its volatile history but compare their feelings towards it to a painful romantic relationship, indicating a lack of trust.

• The speaker personifies crypto as a "cruel lover," emphasizing its unpredictable nature compared to more stable trading options like futures and forex.

Trading Preferences and Market Analysis

• They argue that short-term traders require momentum and consistent movement, which they believe crypto lacks, deeming it unsuitable for their trading strategy.

• The speaker dismisses low valuations as an incentive for trading, insisting that there must be substantial reasons behind market movements.

Institutional vs. Retail Trading

• A clear distinction is made between professional markets (like forex and commodities) and speculative gambling in cryptocurrencies; the former are seen as more legitimate trading environments.

• The speaker focuses solely on trading S&P and Nasdaq futures, rejecting any involvement with crypto assets due to perceived irrationality.

Demonstrating Trading Expertise

Confidence in Market Predictions

• The speaker claims confidence in predicting market movements accurately, challenging others to replicate their success consistently.

• They assert that many self-proclaimed experts cannot match their level of precision or consistency in market predictions.

Critique of Other Traders

• There is criticism directed at other traders who claim superior abilities without demonstrating concrete results or transparency in their methods.

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of genuine performance over fabricated statements about trades.

Teaching Methodology and Accountability

Transparency in Trading Practices

• They highlight past successful predictions shared publicly before execution, reinforcing credibility through transparency.

Realistic Expectations for Traders

• While acknowledging occasional inaccuracies in predictions, the speaker promotes a realistic approach to trading rather than claiming infallibility.

Addressing Misconceptions About Trading Strategies

Understanding the Trading Landscape

The Nature of Teaching in Trading

• The speaker emphasizes that many educators in trading have ulterior motives, often selling something without providing clear explanations about their methods or predictions.

• A contrast is drawn between the speaker's transparency regarding trade setups and the ambiguity presented by others, highlighting a commitment to clarity in teaching.

Experience and Credibility

• The speaker reflects on their long-term experience (over six years) with a private group, questioning if listeners feel scammed or cheated compared to those who have benefited from their teachings.

• Criticism is directed at terms like "institutional candles," which the speaker claims do not exist, indicating a desire for accuracy in trading terminology.

Authenticity vs. Imitation

• The speaker addresses individuals who take credit for their concepts under different names, asserting that true acknowledgment should be given to original ideas rather than rebranding them.

• A call for respect within the community is made; acknowledging influences while carving out one's own path is seen as honorable.

Financial Realities and Influencer Culture

• The concept of "making ends meet" is introduced, illustrating financial struggles faced by many traders and how it relates to personal responsibility.

• The speaker critiques influencers who promote multi-level marketing schemes or courses aimed at profit rather than genuine education.

Commitment to Free Education

• Emphasizing integrity, the speaker contrasts themselves with others who sell information, stating they provide valuable insights without charge.

• They highlight their success in teaching effectively while rejecting monetary gain from students, advocating for self-sufficiency through free resources.

Invitation for Dialogue and Proof of Concepts

• An open invitation is extended to critics to demonstrate any inaccuracies in the speaker's methods or teachings.

• The importance of evidence-based discussions about market operations is stressed; skepticism towards unproven claims is encouraged.

Addressing Skepticism and Motivation

• The speaker acknowledges common misconceptions among new traders but urges them to focus on learning rather than seeking validation from others.

Understanding the Mentorship Approach

Preparing for a Transformative Discussion

• The speaker plans to have an impactful conversation, focusing on aligning expectations with reality, particularly aimed at young men and their financial challenges.

• The primary goal is to tackle the highest monthly expense first, emphasizing that this should be the starting point for financial improvement.

• Acknowledges that many may not engage deeply with the content due to perceived boredom or laziness, stressing the importance of hard work and active listening.

Addressing Misconceptions in Learning

• Critiques those who rely on hindsight from others instead of engaging with current teachings; emphasizes his unique approach and ongoing support throughout the year.

• Points out that some individuals are profiting off his material without providing genuine value, highlighting a need for integrity in teaching.

Simplifying Complex Concepts

• The speaker expresses frustration over people complicating straightforward concepts; insists that following rules is essential for success in any endeavor.

• Emphasizes discipline as crucial; without it, even simple tasks become complicated. Reflects on personal struggles with authority and discipline.

Importance of Framework and Experience

• Stresses that beginners must adhere to established rules until they gain enough experience to adapt them effectively.