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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 06 - High Probability Swing Trade Setups In Bull Markets
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 06 - High Probability Swing Trade Setups In Bull Markets

Swing Trading Lesson Overview

This lesson is about swing trading and high probability swing trade setups in bull markets. The instructor emphasizes the importance of looking at price algorithmically and referring to the pd array matrix.

Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Charts

  • When looking at monthly charts, look for a discount array that has shown to induce buying.
  • On the weekly chart, look for a discount array that has shown a willingness to induce buying.
  • The daily chart should also show evidence of buying in the marketplace.
  • When all three time frames (monthly, weekly, and daily) indicate higher prices with displacement or impulse swings on all time frames, buy all daily bullish discount arrays listed by the instructor.
  • In conditions where the monthly and weekly are bullish but the daily is correcting lower, buy daily bullish discount arrays at or inside nested weekly discount arrays.

Buying Strategies

  • Buy four-hour bullish discount arrays equivalent to those listed by the instructor when monthly, weekly, and daily are indicating higher prices.
  • Look for confluence of levels when coupling higher time frame levels.
  • On the daily and four-hour charts look for bullish order blocks, bullish breakers fair value gaps below market price liquidity voids to close in on range.

When to Avoid Buying Discount Arrays on the Daily

In this section, the speaker explains when to avoid buying discount arrays on the daily chart.

Bullish Monthly Weekly Daily Sequential

  • The bullish monthly weekly daily sequential is a condition where the monthly chart is bullish and the weekly and daily charts are correcting.
  • If there is a monthly bullish order block trading down into or trading to close in a monthly liquidity void or fair value gap, we can buy daily bullish discount arrays at or nested in the monthly discount array.
  • We can also buy 4-hour bullish discount arrays at weekly and/or nested monthly bullish discount arrays.

Bearish Breaker

  • If you see a daily post a higher high and then it's rejected and it breaks down with its market structure, you're probably looking at a development of a bearish breaker.
  • Avoid buying against that type of condition as it would negate any potential for profit.

Silver Swing Trading Example

In this section, the speaker uses silver as an example to illustrate some of the concepts discussed earlier.

Historical Reference Point

  • Looking at the last 10 years, there was a big run-up in silver from 2009 to 2011.
  • Price came all the way back down and closed in that area that little gap in here that's what price came down and hit. We can see the historical reference point which caused this low to form.

Monthly Chart Analysis

  • Even while it's all correcting lower here all these down candles this high being broken big displacement off the 1400 level and we broke market structure on this high. Nonetheless, the monthly chart is bullish.
  • We have a range from the low to the high and we know all during this time period which we were bullish on silver.

Consolidation

  • There has been a rather large displacement, and we are now in a consolidation phase.
  • April 2016 broke that swing high here, there was a nice big displacement higher so there was a big move in silver in 2015 and we carried over into 2016.

Understanding Silver Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of identifying key levels in silver trading and how to use them to make informed decisions.

Identifying Key Levels

  • The 1560 level is an important level to watch for in silver trading.
  • When market price is above a level, it's best to be conservative and not expect that exact level to be hit.
  • Look for price to trade back down into a level that was discerned by the monthly chart while it's bullish.

Using Sequential Analysis

  • Use sequential analysis on daily, weekly, and monthly charts to identify trends.
  • If the weekly chart is bearish while the monthly chart is bullish, wait for price to trade back down into a monthly discount array before making any moves.

Analyzing Price Movements

  • Look at price movements from the formation of a high all the way down to a certain level.
  • Use daily sequential analysis along with monthly and weekly sequential analysis to make informed decisions about when to buy or sell.

Trading off Monthly and Weekly Nested Order Blocks

In this section, the speaker discusses how to trade off monthly and weekly nested order blocks.

Monthly and Weekly in Agreement

  • When the monthly chart is bullish and the weekly chart is bullish, there is an opportunity to trade down into the monthly level.
  • Price trading down into that monthly level while inside of a weekly bullish order block indicates agreement between the monthly and weekly charts.

Daily Time Frame

  • When price is in correction or going lower on the daily time frame, it's best to trade off a weekly and/or monthly nested order block.
  • Every time price trades down into the down candles on a daily chart, we can be a buyer because we have monthly and weekly in alignment.
  • The discount array for monthly and weekly supports price or anticipates supporting price.

Identifying Bullishness with Down Candles

This section covers identifying bullishness with down candles.

Noting Down Candles

  • Note every down candle when price starts making higher highs.
  • Look at openings and highs on the down candles as specific price levels rather than zones.

Executable Time Frame

  • Drop down into your executable time frame, which is four hours.
  • Use sequential for monthly, weekly, and daily along with PD array matrix only buying on discount to apply tools.

Precision of Down Candles

  • All of the down candles right before a big surge in price should be noted using horizontal lines.
  • Swing trading requires noting levels traded at points where rallies occur.

Waiting for Confirmation of Real Buying

This section covers waiting for confirmation of real buying.

Breaking Highs

  • When price rallies through and breaks a high, it confirms that there is real buying going on.
  • Look for the down candle prior to this high being broken up.

Daily Bullish Order Blocks

  • Use daily bullish order blocks or down candles at the highs or their openings to look at candles on a four-hour basis.
  • Wait for price to trade back down into the daily bullish order block before reacting.

Understanding Price Levels

In this section, the speaker discusses how analysis helps to keep charts clean and identifies levels on monthly, weekly, and daily charts.

Identifying Key Levels

  • Analysis helps to keep charts clean.
  • Identifying levels on monthly, weekly, and daily charts is important.
  • The speaker draws levels on the chart during recaps and daily entries.
  • The speaker identified 1800 as a sensitive level for silver.

Buying Below Old Lows

In this section, the speaker explains how to reduce risk by buying below old lows and picking up sell stops in the form of a counterparty.

Reducing Risk

  • Buying below old lows reduces risk.
  • Picking up sell stops in the form of a counterparty can help price run away from that level.

Sweeping Down Below Old Lows

In this section, the speaker talks about sweeping down below old lows and how it's natural to expect this scenario.

Sweeping Down Below Old Lows

  • Sweeping down below old lows is natural to expect.
  • The speaker expected Friday's intraday price action for British Pound USD pair to violate and reject low before seeing higher prices.

Premium Arrays & Liquidity Voids

In this section, the speaker discusses premium arrays where there will be resistance in trades coming to profitability.

Premium Arrays & Liquidity Voids

  • Premium arrays can create resistance in trades coming to profitability.
  • The speaker identified 1798 as a level that was hit on Friday and created a liquidity void.
  • The speaker considers what negates trades if there is a breaker, and identifies the range of lows.

Using Charts to Identify Trading Opportunities

In this section, the speaker discusses how to use charts to identify trading opportunities and determine the next level of a trade.

Swing Trading with Daily, Monthly, and Weekly Charts

  • The daily chart shows a willingness to go higher. If it does, traders should look for the 19 20s and 22s levels.
  • When using four-hour or daily charts, look for liquidity voids that need filling.
  • Look for buying opportunities when price hits a candle's low point.
  • Swing trading takes several days or weeks. Use monthly and weekly premium arrays to determine the next level.

Applying Tools in MT4

  • Go to Fibonacci expansion in MT4.
  • Measure your range from low up to high and drag down the second line back down to that anchor point.
  • Several levels are indicated: Point three Fibonacci extension 30; one level which is going to be the 100 level; equilibrium price point here everything north or above it would be the premium pd arrays and from equilibrium below down to zero is your discount pd arrays focusing on the range defined here.

Using Discount PD Arrays

  • Focus on the range defined by discount PD arrays. This way you can work out where your premium arrays are and where your discount arrays are.

Swing Trading Framework

In this section, the speaker explains the swing trading framework and how to interpret when price is poised to move in a swing trading mindset.

Understanding Price Levels

  • The speaker illustrates graphically how price comes down into the 30 level, which is basically a deep discount. The deepest discount is 20.
  • Premium at 80 is very expensive, and premium at 90 level should be avoided.
  • On a weekly timeframe, bullish order blocks are not going to be as favorable as if they were on the lower end of the spectrum.
  • You can see the importance of having this in your charts or at least having it understood in your charts.

Order Blocks

  • Bearish order blocks have a lot of influence on price while we're in the premium side but then we get down to the discount side over here a bearish order block over here doesn't do anything to hold that price because it's in a discount so the algorithm will just keep pressing through.
  • Every down candle provides support so you want to see them being broken as potential resistance points just giving way.

Swing Trading Mindset

  • Swing trades are by definition very rule-based; they're not ambiguous.
  • When you're looking at these monthly, weekly and daily levels there isn't a lot of them so therefore everybody that's been waiting for these levels to be traded on an institutional basis that's why they're so sensitive because everybody is waiting for that same level institutionally and when they all pile in who are those players they're the.

Luck and Good Trading

In this short clip, the speaker ends a conversation by wishing the listener luck and good trading.

  • The speaker wishes the listener "luck" and "good trading".
  • This clip is very short and does not contain any additional information.
Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 06
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2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in February 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.