Zoll-BEBEN: Das einzige Video, das Anleger jetzt sehen müssen // BRIEFING

Market Update: Key Events and Insights

Introduction to Current Market Conditions

• The speaker, Mario Lochner, introduces the briefing with excitement about current market events and encourages viewer engagement.

• Highlights significant news including the Supreme Court's decision on Trump's tariffs, Ray Dalio's commentary on a fractured world order, and escalating tensions in Iran.

Analysis of Recent Market Movements

• Emphasizes the irrational behavior of investors in response to market fluctuations; urges viewers to stay informed.

• Discusses two interpretations of the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, noting an initial positive reaction from the stock market.

Local Political Developments Impacting Markets

• Mentions Soran Mamdani's election as New York Mayor with a "Tax the Rich" slogan but faces challenges due to Albany rejecting tax plans.

• Speculates on potential increases in property taxes (9.5%) and questions who will ultimately bear these costs.

Upcoming Interviews and Viewer Engagement

• Announces an upcoming interview with Moir Linker from Zurich, inviting viewers to submit questions for discussion.

Weekly Winners and Losers in Stocks

• Reports that oil prices have reached a six-month high amid geopolitical tensions; identifies winners like Garmin with strong growth forecasts.

• Notes that certain stocks like Cadence are benefiting from robust demand for AI technologies while others face downgrades or disappointing outlooks.

Bearish Sentiment: Concerns Ahead

Bearish Perspectives on Market Trends

• Describes bearish analysts' concerns about impending market volatility driven by various factors including AI disappointments and geopolitical risks.

Implications of Geopolitical Tensions

• Analysts predict increased instability following tariff rulings; they believe Trump may retaliate politically which could heighten uncertainty in markets.

Oil Prices and Military Actions

• Highlights rising oil prices as indicators of potential military action related to Iran; suggests that this could lead to further economic repercussions.

Economic Indicators Affecting Investor Sentiment

• Discusses weak consumer spending data (1.4% vs. 2.8% expectations), raising concerns among bearish analysts regarding future Federal Reserve actions on interest rates.

Market Reactions and Economic Insights

Private Credit Market Concerns

• The private credit market is under stress due to various factors, including disruptions from AI and commercial real estate issues. A private lender announced a liquidation of $1.4 billion to pay out investors.

Investor Sentiment on Trump and Market Stability

• Despite concerns, some investors feel relieved about Trump's political situation, suggesting he has been significantly restrained in his actions. They believe fears of an impending crisis are diminishing.

Political Tensions and Market Implications

• Investors acknowledge that while Trump will continue to fight politically, the extreme fears from last year are subsiding. This could lead to a more stable market environment moving forward.

Interest Rates and Economic Indicators

• Current economic indicators show a cooling off in wage growth (0.5% in November down to 0.2% in December), which may allow for falling interest rates despite ongoing concerns about inflation.

Alternative Investments as a Strategy

• Amidst market volatility, investors are encouraged to consider alternative investments such as collectibles (e.g., Rolex watches, whiskey, art). These assets have shown strong performance historically.

Art Investment Opportunities

Highlighting Contemporary Artists

• Tim White Sobieski is noted for his significant presence in the art world with over 100 exhibitions globally and works held by major institutions like LVMH and JP Morgan.

Financial Performance of Art Assets

• Sobieski's artworks have seen a price increase of 150% between 2020 and 2025, indicating strong investment potential despite high initial costs for collectors.

Tokenization of Art Investments

• Timeless offers a platform where certified collectible assets can be tokenized on the blockchain, allowing fractional ownership starting at €50, making art investment accessible to more individuals.

Recent Successes in Art Exits

• The last ten art exits via Timeless achieved an average return of 27.1% within approximately 11 months, showcasing the profitability potential within this investment avenue.

February Campaign and Supreme Court Decisions

February Campaign by Timeless

• A special campaign runs from February 21 to February 28, offering rewards for investments in Drop Assets.

• Rewards include a €50 Amazon voucher for investments starting at €1,000, AirPods Pro or an Apple Watch for €5,000, and an iPhone 17 or MacBook Air for €10,000.

• The total investment amount during the promotional period is considered, excluding fees.

Supreme Court Ruling on Trump's Tariffs

• The Supreme Court ruled against Trump's tariffs with a vote of 6-3; this decision is significant as it impacts various trade policies.

• Trump had imposed tariffs under a pre-1977 emergency law (IEEPA), which the court deemed unconstitutional since tax authority lies with Congress.

Details of the Tariffs Overturned

• The ruling affects several tariffs: a 15% base tariff on EU goods, 25% on Canada and Mexico (often referred to as fentanyl tariffs), and additional tariffs on China.

• Some industry-specific tariffs remain in place, such as the 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum and 15% on European cars.

Trump's Response to the Ruling

• Trump criticized the ruling as shameful and announced plans for new global tariffs of up to 10%, citing a different legal basis under the Trade Act of 1974.

Legal Basis for New Tariffs

• Section 122 of the Trade Act allows temporary import surcharges up to 15% due to serious balance-of-payments deficits but limits their duration to a maximum of 150 days without Congressional approval.

Market Reactions and Implications

• Despite potential market volatility due to tariff changes, there was minimal reaction in bond yields or currency values; markets showed overall positive trends.

Future Outlook

• While some uncertainty remains regarding future tariff implementations by Trump, there is cautious optimism about reduced tensions surrounding trade issues.

• The ruling may enhance trust in U.S. judicial independence despite ongoing challenges related to trade policy.

Conclusion: Ongoing Trade Challenges

• Although some relief has been provided through recent rulings, many existing tariffs persist. Trump's continued push for new tariffs indicates that trade issues will remain complex moving forward.

Trump's Legal Battles and Economic Implications

Overview of Trump's Legal Situation

• Trump has indicated that the next five years will be spent in court, focusing on $170 billion in refunds, which introduces uncertainty but is relatively small compared to overall U.S. debt.

• The Supreme Court has passed the case to a lower court, maintaining an open status that continues to create market uncertainty; current predictions suggest only a 21% chance Trump will have to refund this amount.

Impact on Trump's Power and Strategy

• Trump's power appears limited due to checks and balances within the U.S. system; new measures come with legal restrictions making it harder for him to act unilaterally.

• The markets reacted calmly but positively, indicating that while Trump may attempt new strategies, he faces increased difficulty in escalating situations as before.

Economic Considerations Regarding Tariffs

• Tariffs are becoming unpopular among voters and even Republicans; with midterm elections approaching, there’s speculation about whether Trump will introduce new tariffs shortly before voting.

• A study from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows nearly 90% of tariff burdens fall on U.S. consumers rather than foreign exporters, challenging the narrative that tariffs benefit Americans financially.

Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities

• Current market conditions present either a dire outlook or significant investment opportunities; comparisons are drawn between recent performance metrics of large-cap stocks versus historical lows.

• Investors face potential pitfalls by shifting away from tech stocks under the belief they are overvalued without considering actual value metrics.

Valuation Insights in Big Tech vs. Consumer Staples

• Notable discrepancies exist between forward price-to-earnings ratios (P/E ratios); some consumer staples appear more expensive than major tech companies like Microsoft and Nvidia.

• The valuation debate raises questions about whether big tech is truly overvalued when considering their growth potential compared to traditional consumer goods companies.

Cash Flow Analysis and Future Investments

• Concerns regarding declining cash flows for major tech firms must be contextualized within their ongoing investments aimed at future growth rather than immediate returns.

• Companies like Apple may not invest aggressively enough despite being strong performers; there's a need for strategic investment decisions that align with long-term profitability goals.

Analysis of Current Market Trends and Opportunities

Simplified Cash Flow Perspectives

• The notion that declining cash flows will lead to company bankruptcies is overly simplistic.

• There exists a significant discrepancy in expectations, particularly with software stocks where forward earnings are rising despite stock prices collapsing.

Earnings Growth Insights

• Current earnings per share growth rates have improved compared to December, indicating potential market opportunities.

• The sentiment currently shows more bearish than bullish perspectives, suggesting a cautious outlook for the upcoming week.

Market Challenges and Opportunities

• Despite anticipated challenges in the market, there are substantial mid-term opportunities available; the year may be tough but promising.

• Recent purchases were made during slight downturns, indicating a strategy of capitalizing on lower prices for potential gains.

Investment Strategies and Recommendations

• A new 13F Insider Report has been released, highlighting top-performing stocks from leading investors, which can serve as valuable investment inspiration.

• Notable performance: 20% returns from selected stocks by top investors last quarter; report available for purchase at €99.90.

Critical Analysis of Market Commentary

• Discussion around Ray Dalio's recent article suggests skepticism about his views on global order collapse versus Bridgewater's investment strategies in tech companies like Micron and Oracle.

• The importance of aligning investment actions with stated theories is emphasized; scrutiny over financial decisions reveals deeper insights into market behavior.

Global Economic Dynamics

• Concerns regarding institutional effectiveness in today's economic landscape are raised; historical institutions may not align with current power dynamics or economic realities.

• Gold is suggested as a sensible asset within portfolios but should not be overvalued amidst discussions of financial repression related to debt management strategies.

Skepticism Towards Neutral Currency Concepts

• The idea of neutral money is challenged; if crises arise, governments are unlikely to favor gold or Bitcoin as solutions, raising questions about monetary stability during turmoil.

Reflections on Historical Economic Patterns

• Historical cycles cannot predict future events accurately due to the complex nature of global systems; deterministic views on economics are deemed flawed.

Evaluating Troubled Stocks

• A review of struggling stocks indicates skepticism towards many names like Duolingo and Hims & Hers; some companies remain viable investments despite current difficulties (e.g., Ferrari).