Best Bullish Setup for Gold, Silver and Miners EVER says Analyst Michael Oliver

Introduction

Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis discusses the current state of the mining sector and why he is bullish on gold and silver miners.

The Tectonic Plates are Moving

• Historic macro technical and fundamental events are underway that should benefit gold, silver, and their miners.

• The events will move quickly far more quickly than we've seen in years, possibly ever.

Mining Sector

Michael Oliver shares his thoughts on the mining sector.

Bullish on Mining

• The tectonic plates are moving in the mining sector.

• Gold and silver miners will be the chief beneficiaries of these events.

• Base metal miners should not be focused on as much as monetary metals.

Central Banks' Role in Stock Market Growth

Michael Oliver explains how central banks have created a bubble in the US stock market.

Monstrous River Flow

• Central banks have created a monstrosity of a bubble in the US stock market through repeated creation of river flow over a dozen years.

• They snap back rates to zero whenever they try to deviate with slightly higher rates.

Inflation is Expansion in Money Units

• Inflation is expansion in money units quantity that flows somewhere, such as into the stock market like it did in 2009 when investors put their money there due to low risk.

Gold as a Hedge Against Inflation

Michael Saylor discusses the value of gold as a hedge against inflation and how it compares to other commodities.

Gold's Historical Performance

• Gold has produced three bull markets in the last 50 years, with each resulting in a seven or eight-fold increase in price.

• Despite doubling since its low in December 2015, gold's current bull market is minor compared to previous ones.

• Current monetary events and institutional errors may lead to an economic collapse that could cause gold prices to rise.

Comparing Gold to Other Commodities

• While silver experienced a long corrective process, gold went through a congestion zone between the high 1600s and above 2000 before returning to the top of the range.

• During this time, commodities went down while gold and silver rose due to monetary factors.

• The resumption of gold's bull market began from its lows in 2015.

The Shift to Monetary Metals

In this section, the speaker discusses how traditional investment alternatives are no longer viable and how asset managers and investors are looking for new options. He talks about the collapse of orthodox portfolio components and how gold remained unchanged during this time. The speaker believes that a shift towards monetary metals is underway due to a monetary crisis created by central banks.

Asset Class Shift

• Traditional investment alternatives are no longer viable.

• Orthodox portfolio components collapsed last year, but gold remained unchanged.

• A shift towards monetary metals is underway due to a monetary crisis created by central banks.

Historical Precedent for Current Economic Climate

In this section, the speaker talks about the current economic climate and whether there is any historical precedent for it. He argues that there is nothing comparable in history, citing the seven-fold move in the S&P over a dozen years and 16-fold move in NASDAQ during a boom-bust cycle as evidence.

Historical Precedent

• There is nothing comparable in history to the current economic climate.

• The seven-fold move in S&P over a dozen years and 16-fold move in NASDAQ during a boom-bust cycle have no historical precedent.

Rush to Own Traditional Money

In this section, the speaker discusses how people will rush to own traditional money because of its stability. He cites examples from January when bank stocks were performing well until they suddenly weren't, leading to an ambush that nobody expected.

Rush to Own Traditional Money

• People will rush to own traditional money because of its stability.

• Bank stocks were performing well in January until they suddenly weren't, leading to an ambush that nobody expected.

Analysis of the Banking Sector

In this section, the speaker discusses the performance of banks in relation to market lows and suggests that investors should not only focus on regional banks but also consider big banks such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, City Corp, and Goldman Sachs. The speaker also mentions rumors about big brokers connected to big banks.

Performance of Banks

• The S&P is well above the June and October lows while Bank of America and Wells Fargo are below the June lows.

• Citicorp is near the June lows and not far from its 2020 lows.

• Investors should follow Bank of America, Wells Fargo, City Corp, Goldman Sachs, etc., especially if there are rumors about a big bank.

• People are switching their bank accounts to balance their insurance protection. Some may consider buying gold.

Investing in Commodities

In this section, the speaker talks about investing in commodities such as mining stocks, physical gold and silver, real estate (farming), and ETF on grains. The speaker explains how they predicted a commodity explosion back in October 2020 when Bloomberg's commodity index was just above 70.

Investing in Commodities

• The speaker invests in commodities such as mining stocks, physical gold and silver, real estate (farming), and ETF on grains.

• Investing in farming is different from investing in real estate.

• The Bloomberg commodity index massively deflated until late 2020 when it turned up before gold had already doubled.

• There was no correlation between commodities and gold until commodities turned up. Commodities doubled by the time the Ukraine-Russia situation started in February 2022.

• The commodity explosion was uniform across the sector of commodities, including energy, grains, sugar, copper, etc. It made sense for large asset integers to move into stocks related to those commodities.

• Bloomberg's commodity index has pulled back down to a low of 101 and change from its high monthly close of 131.

Commodities to Watch

In this section, the speaker discusses which commodities are likely to be leaders in the current market upturn.

Focus on Foods

• The speaker believes that instead of energy being the leader on a percent basis, oil and natural gas will lead the last leg up in terms of percent gains.

• The focus should be on foods as they are more likely to be the leader this time around.

• The grains are likely to turn up soon, and when they do, emphasis should be placed on grain-related stocks.

Oil and Gas

• While bullish on oil and gas, the speaker is not as bullish as he is on foods.

• Oil and natural gas have not turned up yet, but if they get back above certain levels, there could be a nice percent gain again.

Fertilizers and Farmland

• The speaker suggests focusing more directly on grain-related commodities rather than fertilizers or farmland.

• There may still be some movement in fertilizer-related stocks after their big move last year.

Coffee, Sugar, Grains and Gold Miners

In this section, the speaker talks about how coffee, sugar, and grains tend to behave similarly in the commodity complex. He also discusses how gold miners are often misunderstood and can outperform gold during certain periods.

Coffee, Sugar, and Grains

• Coffee, sugar, and grains tend to look and behave similarly in the commodity complex.

• The speaker assumes that they will be an outperforming component of the commodity complex.

• While these commodities have been pulling back sharply lately, they still have potential for growth.

Gold Miners

• People have certain assumptions about gold miners that are false.

• During a dynamic bull trend in gold, there will be a period where the miners suddenly snap from a low oversold level and just join gold and outpace it for a couple of years.

• There's always a point where they beat gold on a percentage basis.

• Silver is expected to outpace gold big time during another replication of its seven to eight-fold bull market.

Silver's Potential Growth

In this section, the speaker talks about silver's potential growth based on its relationship with gold.

Silver's Relationship with Gold

• If silver went to two and a half or three percent of the price of gold when gold were eight thousand dollars (assuming another routine eightfold global market), then silver could be worth hundreds of dollars.

• On a percentage basis if silver went up to two and a half or three percent of the price of gold okay and gold were eight thousand dollars you do the math okay?

• Silver tends to do well in bull markets even though there may be points where it underperforms.

Silver Explosion Trigger Level

In this section, the speaker talks about the trigger level for a potential surge in silver prices.

Potential Surge in Silver Prices

• If silver hits $24.95 this month, it could trigger a surge in prices.

• A surge could cause silver to go from an arm wrestling behavior to a thunderbolt-like behavior.

• A surge could lead to a void between the highs of 2021 and the historic peaks at 50.

• The speaker believes that gold will be in multiple thousands and that fundamentals will continue to unfold.

Central Banks and Interest Rates

In this section, the speaker discusses central banks and interest rates.

Reversal of Central Bank Policy

• The central bank will have to do a reversal, not just our central bank but also the ECB and BOJ.

• Any notion of tightening will go out the window rapidly.

• There'll be a competitive drive to drive rates back down again and provide liquidity primarily.

• It's not so much an issue of interest rate level but balance sheets.

Dollar Bearishness

In this section, the speaker talks about bearishness towards the dollar.

Bearishness Towards Dollar

• The speaker got bearish when it dropped from 115 high recently which they think was a spike erroneous high.

• They got major bearish again when it was trading down to 102.

• If it gets down on mid 90s again, kiss it goodbye as there are major structures on ten-year average momentum saying you get back like 94; it's gone.

• Gold is likely to become a factor here.

Technical Analysis vs. Momentum Structures

In this section, the speaker talks about technical analysis and momentum structures.

Technical Analysis and Momentum Structures

• The speaker looks at momentum structures which is different from price.

• They look at all four major asset categories in their subscription: debt markets, foreign exchange, commodities, and stock markets.

• It's important to look at all four major asset categories because they have major tectonic plates that when they move can affect other assets.

• Price is often misleading; for example, when gold took out the lows of the range of the last two years at 1675 and blew through it last summer, it dropped another three percent but scared everybody in the process.

Michael's Insights on Market Reports

In this section, Bill interviews Michael about the frequency of market reports and how they are analyzed.

Frequency of Market Reports

• Michael explains that most asset categories are looked at each weekend.

• During the week, there might be four or five reports on a given market.

• Usually, there are around five reports per week.

Appreciation for Michael's Insights

• Bill thanks Michael for his insights and appreciates hearing from him after a couple of years.