Horizon Scanning
Horizons Scanning and Three Horizons Framework
This section introduces horizons scanning as a method for identifying early signs of significant developments and delves into the Three Horizons Framework, a tool for thinking about transformation.
Horizons Scanning
- Horizons scanning is a method to identify early signs of potentially significant developments through systematic examination of opportunities.
- It explores novel and unexpected issues challenging past assumptions, aiming to understand future trends and changes.
Three Horizons Framework
- The framework aids in thinking about transformation by providing tools for collective future-oriented thinking.
- H1 represents business as usual, while H3 symbolizes pockets of the future led by visionaries creating new patterns.
- Incremental innovation characterizes H1, while disruptive innovations occur between H1 and H3.
Disruptive Innovations and System Change Strategy
This section discusses disruptive innovations within the context of the Three Horizons model and explores strategies for system change.
Disruptive Innovations
- Disruptions can be natural disasters, technological advancements, or cultural shifts that lead to new ways of doing things.
- A ch2 innovation enhances existing patterns without questioning them, while H2+ builds infrastructure for new organizational forms represented by H3.
System Change Strategy
- The key consideration is how much to work with the existing system versus building something disruptive.
New Section
In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of considering the level of inertia in an existing system when deciding whether to work with a new model or stick to old thinking.
Degree of Inertia and Decision Making
- The degree of inertia in a system determines how much one should work with the new model versus sticking to old thinking.