Macron Tries to Reason with a Failing China || Peter Zeihan

French President Macron's Visit to China

In this section, Peter Zein discusses the recent visit of French President Macron to China and his talks with Chairman Xi Jinping regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Macron's Talks with Xi Jinping

• French President Macron visited China to talk to Chairman Xi Jinping about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

• Chinese media has been praising the summit between Macron and Xi Jinping, highlighting France's idea of strategic independence from the United States.

• The Chinese belief that behind every plot against Russia and China is the American hand has led to political disintegration within China.

Containment Policy During Cold War

In this section, Peter Zein discusses how during the Cold War, there was a policy of containment against Russia.

Containment Policy Against Russia

• The Russians have always believed that behind every plot against them is the American hand.

• Before 1945, many countries had their own anti-Russia strategy. After World War II, all these countries were broken in one way or another and were physically reconstructed by the United States.

• The global system created by the United States allowed these countries to trade and access energy and markets. As a result, they received authority from the US to set their security policies.

Post-American World

In this section, Peter Zein discusses how we are entering a post-American world where independent countries will have to look after their own policy sets.

Shift in US Military Structure

• The United States military structure has shifted to being super carrier focused, which means that the US cannot be present everywhere at once.

• After the war on terror and the Iraq conflict, the United States will not deploy land troops on a global basis for a very long time if ever again. This leaves it to independent countries to look after their own policy sets.

French Policy Making

In this section, Peter Zein discusses how French policy making is different from American foreign policy making.

Differences in Policy Making

• The nature of American foreign policy making means that they have a hard time focusing on more than two or three things at a time.

• If you're in France, you can focus on issues closer to the horizon with more intensiveness.

• The Chinese inability to make this distinction means that they're preparing for a world where the United States is writing heard an alliance that doesn't exist.

Conclusion

In this section, Peter Zein concludes his discussion by highlighting how France and America are partners but don't always see things through the same light.

Partnerships Between France and America

• Washington finds it annoying when France goes off but they are doing things for themselves and not for China or Russia.

• While France and America are partners, they don't always see things through the same light.

China's Multi-Vectored Opposition

In this section, the speaker discusses how China is dealing with opposition from multiple countries that can think and act for themselves.

Countries Opposing China

• Vietnam has a coastline on the South China Sea that can disrupt Chinese commerce without even needing a Navy.

• Australia is getting nuclear submarines and mid-range air-launched cruise missiles which can disrupt everything the Chinese can do.

• India doesn't have to leave home in order to completely wreck the Chinese economy.

Independent Countries

• None of these countries operate as deputies of the United States, all of them are creative, have their own capacities and reasons for tearing down the Chinese system in its current form.

Xi Jinping Thought

In this section, the speaker talks about how Xi Jinping thought has become a monochromatic thought process that guides all Chinese decision making.

Cult of Personality

• The cult of personality forming up in China reached the point of no return and started taking official form called Xi Jinping thought.

• The idea is not only do they have a party ideology but one dude who's setting their goal setting process that they use to think and evaluate everything and everyone needs to think like him.

Purging Power Centers

• In his first five years as premiere, Xi purged the party of everyone who was an alternate power center against him and in his second five years he went against anyone who had any independent decision-making at all so there's no one left it's just him.

Monochromatic Thought Process

• Over the course of last few years, Chinese diplomacy, defense planning, intelligence system and propaganda system have dissolved completely.

• All that is left is this monochromatic thought process that is fixated on a story that is wildly inaccurate and that is what guides all Chinese decision making now.

China's Political Incompetence

In this section, the speaker talks about how China's political incompetence will lead to its end.

Terminal Situations

• The demographic situation in China's far past terminal it's a country killer.

• The financial system is far past terminal and that's a country killer.

Race with Political Incompetence

• We have a race with political incompetence as to what is actually going to kill the country first.

Impact on Chinese Population

• If it's policy and competence that really leads China to its end, the impact on the Chinese population will be particularly horrific because this is a country that is dependent upon international connections not just for its economic where for all but for its energy and its food supplies.

Historical Comparison

• Last time we had such break was another period where an individual in the Chinese system impressed his version of ideology into everyone's thinking which led to cultural revolution, great leap forward and death of tens of millions of his own countrymen from famine and political purges.

Conclusion

The speaker concludes by saying that we are entering a situation where political incompetence leading to China's end may be one of the better scenarios for the next decade or two.