Turkey's Presidential Runoff: What to Expect May 28 and After

Introduction

The speaker introduces herself and welcomes the audience to the policy forum discussion on Turkey's presidential runoff.

• Sonia Choptai is the director of Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for nearest policy.

• The discussion will focus on likely outcomes of the runoff presidential race and its short, mid, and long-term implications for Turkey's democracy, foreign policy environment, and ties with the European Union and United States.

• Three colleagues will join her in discussing this topic.

Results of May 14th Elections

This section discusses the results of Turkey's May 14th elections that led to a presidential runoff.

• President Erdogan's block won legislative majority with 49.5% popular vote.

• Opposition candidate Kamalu LED received around 45% popular vote.

• Since neither candidate got 50% required by the Constitution, there will be a runoff between them on Sunday to determine who will be Turkey's next president.

Implications of Runoff Outcome

This section discusses potential implications of the outcome of Turkey's presidential runoff election.

• The discussion will focus on short, mid, and long-term implications for Turkey's democracy, foreign policy environment, and ties with the European Union and United States.

• The three colleagues joining Sonia Choptai are experts in Turkish politics who can provide insight into these implications.

Audience Participation

This section explains how audience members can participate in the discussion.

• Viewers can use chat box to type questions if they registered online or email questions to policy Forum at washingtoninstitute.org if viewing on YouTube.

• Notes from today's event can be used in analysis or reporting or shared on social media platforms like Twitter.

Introduction of Panelists

This section introduces the three panelists who will be joining Sonia Choptai in discussing Turkey's presidential runoff election.

• First, Elgin Oyku Ozcan is a columnist for Turkey's daily Jumriette and has spent over two decades covering Turkey for various publications.

• Second, Kemal Kirisci is the Europe director at Eurasia Group and previously covered Turkey and NATO issues at the Wall Street Journal.

• Third, Humera Pamuk is a senior foreign policy correspondent for Reuters covering the State Department.

Elgin Oyku Ozcan's Insights on Elections

This section provides insights from Elgin Oyku Ozcan on Turkey's May 14th elections and the upcoming presidential runoff.

• Elgin Oyku Ozcan was on the ground during the elections and provided extensive coverage.

• She will provide insight into what to expect during the campaign season leading up to Sunday's presidential runoff.

Introduction and Overview

The moderator introduces the speaker and explains how to ask questions during the Q&A session. The speaker is asked about her experience covering the Turkish election campaign before May 14th, and what she expects from the upcoming runoff election.

Coverage of Election Campaign

The speaker discusses her coverage of the Turkish election campaign, including her visits to different provinces to gauge public opinion. She notes that while there was a demand for change in the country, President Erdogan's base remained loyal to him despite concerns about the economy and earthquake relief efforts.

• Visited Istanbul as a microcosm of Turkey

• Found AKP government not held responsible for earthquake disaster or relief process

• Talked to insiders from both camps in Ankara

• AKP camp confident they would win but demand for change was present

• First round saw opposition do well but Erdogan still had strong support

Results of First Round

The speaker analyzes the results of the first round of voting in Turkey's presidential election. While Erdogan's party did not receive as much support as expected, his base remained loyal to him. The opposition performed well but was diverse and not completely convincing.

• Erdogan received a warning with 49.5% of votes

• His party received lowest percentage since coming to power in 2002

• Opposition team diverse but not completely convincing

Turkish Elections Overview

In this section, the speaker provides an overview of the Turkish elections and the two opposing camps.

Two Opposing Camps

• The speaker explains that there are two opposing camps in Turkey.

• One camp supports Erdogan and believes that if others come to power, the country will be worse off economically, socially, and in terms of status.

• The other camp is the opposition who wants change.

Second Round of Elections

• The speaker mentions that they are currently at the second round of elections.

• It looks like Erdogan's party will win again unless there is a last-minute miraculous situation.

Opposition Did Well

• Despite Erdogan's advantages such as control over media and financial resources from the state, the opposition did well in these elections.

• This was due to their organization and ability to ride on a wave of desire for change.

AKP Supporters vs. Opposition Supporters

In this section, the speaker talks about their experience talking to AKP supporters and opposition supporters on the ground during election time.

Polarized Culture

• The culture in Turkey is very polarized between AKP supporters and opposition supporters.

Word by Word Support for Erdogan

• When talking to AKP supporters, they repeated word for word what Erdogan was telling them.

• They believed that voting for anyone else would mean terror groups coming into power or not being able to manage the economy.

Desire for Change

• Opposition supporters wanted change but were concerned about potential election rigging.

• There were some irregularities in the first round of elections but no concrete proof of stolen votes.

Anti-refugee Campaigning

In this section, the speaker discusses how the opposition candidate's campaign has changed in the last two weeks.

Change in Campaigning

• The opposition candidate's campaign has become more anti-refugee in the last two weeks.

• Previously, he was more positive and inclusive, which brought hope to opposition supporters.

Rhetoric is Hard

• The rhetoric of the opposition candidate is now very hard and almost resonates like Erdogan speaking.

• He wants to send all refugees back home as soon as he comes into power.

Conclusion

In this section, the speaker concludes their thoughts on the Turkish elections.

Exciting but Predictable

• The speaker finds these elections fascinating but not as exciting or unpredictable as the first round.

• It looks like Erdogan will win again unless there is a miraculous situation.

Political Fights Ahead

• After the elections, there will likely be many political fights ahead.

Electorate Wants Change

• A takeaway from these elections is that the electorate wants change.

English Emra Emery's Outlook for Turkey's Economy and Ties with the EU

In this section, Emra Emery provides an outlook for Turkey's economy and its ties with the EU.

Emery's Outlook for Sunday's Votes

• Identity politics dominated the campaign despite deep economic problems in Turkey.

• The opposition did well in consolidating the block and its vote, but failed to expand its share of the overall pie.

• The challenge lies in getting a bigger slice of Turkey's majority conservative and right-of-centered voters which make up anywhere between 60 to 65 percent of the electorate.

Economic Outlook

• Erdogan will be Vindicated by re-election despite significant pressures on the Lira, high unemployment, and people's concerns.

• Erdogan is politically committed to his model and motivated by a desire to wean Turkey off its overall economic dependence on Western countries.

Ties with EU

• No bullet points available.

Turkey's Economic Outlook

The speaker discusses the current state of Turkey's economy and its reliance on financing from Russia and investments from the Gulf. They also discuss how Turkey's relations with the EU are unlikely to change much.

Turkey's Economy

• Turkey relies on financing from Russia and investments from the Gulf.

• Aldon will likely stick with current policies, but a U-turn may become increasingly more likely in the fall due to economic dynamics.

• Currency weakness is expected after elections, which will make Turkish exporters more competitive and attract tourists.

• Bills will start rising in the fall as schools start and weather gets colder, making a U-turn for Aldon more likely.

Turkey's Relations with EU

• Expectations are that relations between Turkey and the EU will remain largely unchanged.

• The EU is happy to manage relations on autopilot, dealing with Erdogan as they have for two decades.

• An update to the 1995 Customs Union is highly unlikely, as is visa liberalization for Turks.

• Erdogan will meet with European leaders once or twice a year at political community summits.

Erdogan's Role as Geopolitical Actor

The speaker discusses Erdogan's role as a geopolitical actor and his relationship with Western partners.

Erdogan's Role

• Erdogan remains a relevant geopolitical actor who was elected with over 50% of votes.

• His role is important but difficult for Western partners, given issues such as Sweden's accession to NATO and the issue of migration and refugees.

• Pressure from Brussels and Washington may rise after the elections, with officials imposing sanctions on Turkish companies or sectors.

Analysis of Erdogan's Performance

The speakers discuss Erdogan's performance and the focus on what he has done right or wrong. They also touch on the shortcomings of opposition candidate for presidency, Coach Sterolu.

Erdogan's Strengths and Weaknesses

• Erdogan's strengths include his grip over information flow and institutions.

• Coach Sterolu failed to present his team as one that could run Turkey better than Erdogan's team.

• Coach Sterolu couldn't expand his base beyond what was already signed on to this block, which is another area where he underperformed expectations.

Economic Outlook

• The summer months may not be as painful due to large inflows because of weak Lira and rising exports.

• Tourism revenues will increase dramatically given that Turkey was last year the fifth most visited country in the world.

Impact of Local Elections in 2024

• The panelists believe that Erdogan is leading so far, but there is a question about how local elections in 2024 will impact a potential Erdogan presidency.

NATO Expansion for Sweden

Humira discusses NATO expansion for Sweden and how it impacts US-Turkish ties from F-16s to F-35s.

Impact of NATO Expansion for Sweden

• Turkey and Hungary are the two countries that still have not given the green light for NATO expansion for Sweden.

• Humira discusses how this outcome impacts US-Turkish ties from F-16s to F-35s.

Erdogan's Rhetoric and Post-Truth Debate

Humira emphasizes the importance of cultural wars and how Erdogan's rhetoric resonates with people. She also discusses the post-truth debate in this election.

Importance of Cultural Wars

• The cultural wars and how Erdogan's rhetoric resonates with people is important to keep in mind for those watching Turkey in the years to come.

• Humira shares her experience covering six election cycles in Turkey, where she heard people repeat Erdogan's words verbatim.

Post-Truth Debate

• There is a post-truth element at play in this election, similar to what happened with Trump during the US 2020 elections.

• Erdogan has been lying about the election results, and millions of people still believe him.

Turkish Politics and US-Turkey Relations

The speaker discusses the significance of the upcoming Turkish election, including issues such as accountability for government safety procedures in response to natural disasters and economic problems. They also discuss the importance of Sweden's accession to NATO for US-Turkey relations.

Importance of Upcoming Election

• The upcoming Turkish election is significant for future elections in Turkey.

• Regardless of who wins, Sweden's accession to NATO by Vilnius Summit is a wide priority for the United States.

Economic Problems and Accountability

• The earthquake has a lot to do with how government enforced or didn't enforce safety procedures when it comes to buildings and construction amnesty.

• People thought that Erdogan is the one who can save them from the disaster caused by the earthquake.

• People are feeling economic pain, they were able to buy three-five things with 50 Lira but now they can only buy two things.

Importance of Sweden's Accession to NATO

• The absence of Sweden's accession would not look good from a transatlantic unity point of view.

• If Sweden does not join by July, it will appear as a failure on U.S part.

• Congress is persistent that Sweden would go in.

US-Turkey Relations

• Turkey is referred to as a challenging ally by Secretary Blinken.

• There is still hope that Erdogan might be elected and he might get the ratification from the Turkish Parliament by July.

• The administration would have more ammunition with Congress to push for the sale of F-16s if NATO enlargement can be completed.

• There is concern about Turkey's relationship with Russia going forward, as they have been trying to play both sides for some time.

The Relationship Between Turkey and the US

In this section, the speakers discuss the transactional relationship between Turkey and the US. They mention that President Biden has given a cold shoulder to everyone, including Erdogan, which has resulted in few phone calls and meetings. There are expectations that President Erdogan would meet with Biden during his visit to the US.

Transactional Relationship

• The relationship between Turkey and the US has been transactional for quite some time.

• Biden has given a cold shoulder to everyone, including Erdogan.

• People in Turkey have asked whether there was any chance that Biden would also visit.

• If Erdogan is re-elected, it's going to be more of the same transactional bit uncomfortable.

Pressure on Erdogan

• It remains to be seen what the White House will do to put more pressure on Erdogan regarding NATO obsession.

• Will it be through a carrot phone call or an invitation?

• Erdogan will ask for a visit before campaign season starts in the US.

F16 vs Swedish NATO Accession

In this section, speakers discuss how important it is for Democrats during campaign season to show success in getting Turkish requests regarding F16 software updates done. They also talk about how Ambassador Flake has helped move forward with these requests.

Importance of F16 Software Updates

• Getting Turkish requests regarding F16 software updates done is important for Democrats during campaign season.

• Ambassador Flake has helped move forward with these requests.

Election Season in Turkey

In this section, the speakers discuss the upcoming election season in Turkey and how Erdogan is the favorite candidate going into the race. They also mention that while there are problems with Erdogan, the electorate will likely continue with him.

Election Season

• Erdogan is the favorite candidate going into the race.

• The electorate did not give a red card to Erdogan but did not give a green light either.

• The electorate is saying that there are problems with Erdogan, but they will continue with him.

Analysis of Turkey's Election Results

In this section, the speaker discusses the reasons behind the electorate's support for President Erdogan and analyzes three possible outcomes of the election.

Possible Outcomes of the Election

• If Erdogan wins, he may focus on embracing unorthodox economic policies, leaning towards Russia in foreign policy, and cracking down on opposition and democracy.

• If Erdogan wins by a narrow margin, there may be more crackdowns on opposition and dissent. However, he may also feel vulnerable due to his low margin of victory.

• If Erdogan wins comfortably but not by a landslide, there may be continuity in most policies. The speaker suggests that this is the most plausible outcome.

Impact of Election Results

• A right-wing majority in Parliament could lead to legislation along conservative lines.

• Far-right deputies with archaic social views could influence policy decisions if they are part of a coalition government.

Factors Influencing Election Outcome

• Turnout will play a crucial role in determining whether Erdogan wins by a large or small margin.

• Summer dynamics and tourism money could help bolster Turkey's economy regardless of who wins the election.

Opposition Strategies and Erdogan's Power

In this section, the speakers discuss the strategies of the opposition and President Erdogan in the upcoming local elections in Turkey. They also talk about how controlling local governments, especially Istanbul, is crucial for Erdogan's power.

Impact of Local Elections on Opposition and Erdogan Strategies

• The opposition has learned that it can defeat Erdogan only if it's united.

• Controlling local governments in Turkey is crucial for Erdogan's power, especially Istanbul.

• If Erdogan wins by a small margin or if there are contested elections, there might be a repetition of elections.

• If people believe that the elections were stolen, there might be some unrest happening in the country.

• The ideal scenario would be not a landslide victory for either side.

Opposition Base and Regime Continuation

• Most opposition supporters are frustrated and angry but see it as a question of regime continuation.

• It's about whether Turkey will go back to an old Turkish system with more democratic checks and balances or become a party state under one man.

• If Erdogan comes with a landslide victory, Turkish people will be stuck with a party state for a very long time.

Threats to Women, Children, and LGBTQ+ Groups

The speaker discusses how groups like women's, children's, and LGBTQ+ are going to be widely threatened and hunted down.

• These groups will face challenges due to the political changes happening in Turkey.

• The speaker is unsure about the impact of local elections on these groups.

Uncertainty in Opposition Block

The speaker talks about the uncertainty surrounding the opposition block.

• It is difficult to predict what will happen with the opposition block after national elections.

• CHP gained nothing by aligning with former AKP politicians or Islamistrocity party.

• EU party lost some votes by backing more moderate candidates and stepping away from nationalist voters.

• Aragon will try to reduce his dependency on MHP on new welfare party etc so that opposition block holding even in Parliament is an open question.

Threat Against Imamoglu

The speaker discusses the threat against Imamoglu.

• There is a real threat against Imamoglu if he is removed from office come October.

• This would give Erdogan enough time to build on his post-election victory and make people forget that he was jailed before being banned from politics.

Erdogan's Game Plan

The speakers discuss Erdogan's game plan.

• Erdogan's game plan will be to take Istanbul, Ankara, and other cities from the opposition.

• Opposition fracturing helps Erdogan.

Uncertainty in Opposition Alliance

The speaker talks about the uncertainty surrounding the opposition alliance.

• It is unclear how the opposition will form an alliance going into spring 2024.

• There is a big nationalist mandate that came out from this election, and it's unclear how to account for that in forming an alliance.

• Local elections might be about services, but every election in Turkey is a referendum on whether people want to continue with the current system or change it.

Election Security

The speaker discusses election security.

• The opposition did not perform well when it comes to their efforts and organization of election security.

• Journalists asked again and again if they were prepared for command of the ballot boxes, but they were not prepared enough.

Election Security and Replicating Performance

The discussion is about the Istanbul election and how CHP was able to push back because they had manned every single ballot box. The conversation then shifts to whether CHP replicated that performance in this national election despite their assurances.

Election Security is Key for Local Elections

• Election security element of manning the ballot boxes has to be a big part of formulating strategy for local elections.

• Despite assurances, CHP did not replicate their performance in this national election.

• Charlotte's campaign was not as inspiring as people expected it to be, but still quite impressive.

• Most percentage of votes leftists ever got in Turkey, but still not enough.

Russian and Gulf Money

The discussion is about the impact of Russian and Gulf money on Erdogan's political survival, especially in the summer months leading up to local elections.

Inflows from Russia and Gulf are Crucial for Erdogan's Economic Model

• Between mid-August through September 2018, Russia funneled $10-$15 billion into Turkey which saved them from significant economic crisis heading into October.

• Saudi Arabia agreed to park $5 billion dollars with strings attached to the central bank in Turkey.

• UAE put aside a $10 billion fund to invest in assets in Turkey.

• Erdogan is counting on continued inflows from Russia and the Gulf to sustain his economic model.

Prioritizing Countries for Congratulatory Calls & Brain Drain

The discussion is about which countries will prioritize congratulatory calls to President Erdogan after his win. It also touches on brain drain among educated Turks and youth after the elections.

Brain Drain is a Threat to Turkey's Future

• 74-76% of young people in Turkey want to live and work abroad, which is a huge brain drain.

• Doctors, engineers, and white-collar workers are leaving.

• Some campaigns are trying to bring back students who left for education or work abroad.

• Young people have an immense desire to leave the country.

Overall Summary

The transcript discusses various topics related to Turkish politics. The importance of election security is highlighted as CHP was able to push back in Istanbul because they had manned every single ballot box. However, despite assurances, CHP did not replicate their performance in this national election. The impact of Russian and Gulf money on Erdogan's political survival is discussed, with inflows from these countries being crucial for his economic model. Finally, the issue of brain drain among educated Turks and youth after the elections is touched upon.

Brain Drain and US-Turkish Ties

The discussion centers around the issue of brain drain in Turkey, where highly skilled individuals are leaving the country due to political and economic instability. The conversation also touches on the potential impact of US-Turkish ties on this issue.

Brain Drain in Turkey

• Despite being advanced, many skilled individuals in Turkey feel that their opportunities are limited.

• There is a strong sense of "us vs. them" identity politics contributing to this issue.

• Many doctors have left Turkey for Germany, which has cost Turkey a significant amount of money in training costs.

US-Turkish Ties

• The Biden administration has taken a different approach than the Trump administration when it comes to Turkish diplomacy.

• President Biden has expressed neutrality regarding the Turkish election results.

• It is unclear whether an invitation from President Biden to Erdogan would change anything regarding US-Turkish relations or brain drain in Turkey.

Turkey's Role in NATO Accession

The speaker discusses the potential impact of Turkey's support for Sweden's NATO accession and how it could be a game changer in the short term.

Impact of Turkey's Support for Sweden's NATO Accession

• Turkey's support for Sweden's NATO accession could be a game changer in the short term.

• Most country leaders will line up to congratulate President Erdogan if he wins, and Erdogan's Palace will prioritize these calls.

• Leaders whose phone calls Erdogan is most likely to take include Biden, Tatar of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Aliyev of Azerbaijan, and Putin in Russia.

Potential Leaders Erdogan Will Call After Winning Election

The speakers discuss which world leaders are most likely to receive a phone call from President Erdogan after winning the election.

World Leaders Likely to Receive Phone Call from Erdogan

• Biden is likely to receive a phone call from Erdogan as his counterpart.

• Other world leaders who may receive a phone call from Erdogan include Putin, Aliyev, Tatar, Altani Qatar, and Macron.