Raoul Pal: Unraveling The Exponential Age

Introduction

In this section, the speakers introduce themselves and discuss the changes that have occurred in the world since their last conversation.

• Raul and the host discuss how much has changed in the world since their last conversation. They mention changes to technology, politics, and macroeconomics.

Changes in Crypto

In this section, the speakers discuss changes in crypto and macroeconomics.

• The speakers talk about changes to the global conversation around crypto.

• They mention changes to technology and political realignment.

• The speakers also discuss significant changes to macroeconomics, including an entire banking crisis.

One Sentence Take on Crypto, Macro, and AI

In this section, the speakers give a one-sentence take on where crypto is, where macro is, and where AI is.

• Raul gives his one-sentence take on each topic: "Crypto spring," "Macro - final flush into bottom of economic cycle but assets are already looking through it," "AI - biggest technological breakthrough since splitting of atom."

Exponential Age and Everything Code

In this section, the speakers define two phrases that will frame their discussion: exponential age and everything code.

• The hosts ask Raul to define two phrases he often uses: exponential age and everything code.

• Raul explains that we are currently in the everything code era but moving towards an exponential age.

• He discusses how demographics have affected GDP growth over time.

Baby Boomers' Impact on Labor Force

In this section, Raul discusses how baby boomers impacted the labor force.

• Raul talks about how baby boomers caused inflation in the 70s by entering both the labor force and consumption force at the same time.

• He explains that when 76 million people of the same age enter the labor force, they compete with each other for jobs and real wages never went up again ever.

• Raul also mentions that millennials entered the labor force at the same time as baby boomers, which killed the American Dream of increasing productivity leading to increasing real wages.

Understanding the Debasement of Currency and the Exponential Age

In this section, Raoul Pal discusses how quantitative easing led to the debasement of currency and how he came up with his thesis on the exponential age.

The Impact of Quantitative Easing

• Trend rate of GDP fell to about 2% since early 2000s, while interest rates were at 2%.

• Not enough money to pay interest due to government debt being at 100% and private sector's debt being over 100%.

• Solution was cutting rates to zero everywhere and implementing quantitative easing (QE).

• QE injects money into the system, leading to asset price increases instead of inflationary cost-of-goods increases.

• Global macro investment research shows a 97.5 correlation between S&P and G5 central bank balance sheets plus M2 for those countries.

The Exponential Age Thesis

• Raoul Pal started dividing S&P by FED balance sheet or G4 central bank balance sheets and all assets.

• Normalized world showed that S&P had gone nowhere, but technology and crypto assets had gone up a lot due to network effects.

• Raoul Pal realized that crypto was a secular trend driven by network adoption and cyclical trend driven by liquidity.

• Adding when everything goes horribly wrong is a perfect buy signal if you believe in long-term adoption trend channel two standard deviations oversold.

• The Everything Code chart showed that ISM was perfectly cyclical every peak in business cycle is three-and-a-half years apart since 2008. Raoul Pal realized that we are walking into a nexus of network adoption effects at scale of which humanity has never seen before of numerous technologies.

The Debt Structure of the United States

In 2009, every single man, woman, child, corporation and government around the world reset all interest rates to zero. This was like a reset and everybody's got roughly three to five year debts.

• Every single man, woman, child Corporation and the government and every government around the world reset all interest rates to zero in 2009.

• Interest payments that the US makes and the EU and Japan and the UK were explained by the amount of quantitative easing that happens three and a half years later.

• Global central banks had probably agreed together in 2009 10 11 12 probably 2012 after Europe blew up that with governments at 100 of GDP in debt they were going to crowd out all the private sector.

• Quantitative easing was seen as the only way of solving this problem.

Predicting Central Bank Balance Sheets

By using forward-looking indicators for central bank balance sheets or interest payments it is possible to predict future growth for central bank balance sheets.

• A model can be built with Julian Bittle who works with me um to forecast out growth for central bank balance sheet by about 18 months to two years.

• The chart of labor force participation rate in the United States perfectly correlates with FED balance sheet and predicts it going forwards because you know where demographics are going to go going forwards.

• PE ratios are basically driven by two things the price the p goes up because of debasement and the E earnings are driven by M2 so that relationship between M2 and the balance sheet almost entirely explains P ratios.

The World is Driven by Money

Everything has become a monetary phenomena. Value investing hasn't worked, it's because we're not driven by the same things any longer.

• Everything has become a monetary phenomena.

• Earn assets that rise the most and outperform that which happens to be crypto and technology.

• There is no macro it is all an interest rate cycle driven by interest payments because all debt got reset which is why everybody has struggled since 2008 to understand the world.

The Everything Code

In this section, the speaker discusses how crypto and exponential age stocks performed in the past year. He also explains how Bitcoin outperforms other assets due to its network adoption model.

Crypto and Exponential Age Stocks Performance

• Exponential age stocks rose by 35-40% while crypto did well at one point with a rise of 300%, but ended up with a rise of about 100%.

Bitcoin Outperforms Other Assets

• Crypto is all the same thing, so if we use the same Global liquidity index, it's basically child Bitcoin.

• Bitcoin outperforms in the upcycles because there's a network adoption model which is why it does so much better than almost all other assets.

Forecasting Asset Prices

• The Everything Code is based on one simple thing that makes asset price forecasting possible.

• We can know the price of assets in advance unless something changes.

Potential for Larger Scale QE

In this section, the speaker talks about potential larger scale QE and what would have to happen for that to be true.

Banking Crisis and Rising Balance Sheet

• There is already a banking crisis, and the bank balance sheet is rising.

• Whether you call it QE or not doesn't matter; what matters is that the balance sheet is rising.

Commercial Real Estate Problem

• Commercial real estate has become a problem since nobody goes back to offices anymore.

• About 50% of office buildings are empty across all the big cities.

• Everyone is going to get out of their leases, and everyone's going to be stuck on these smaller banks.

ECB's Solution in Europe

• This situation happened before in Europe between 2008-2012 when all the real estate was empty, and all the banks went bust.

• The ECB stood up and said whatever it takes to protect both the sovereign nations going bust and the banking system.

• They took anything as collateral, even chewing gum wrappers or old cigarette packets, and gave a lend against it.

Demographics and Debt Payments

• Demographics and debt payments are also factors that suggest there is no way they don't do a lot of QE.

Final Problem within Everything Code

• If we're looking at two-year rates right now, they're at 4.15%, but GDP growth this year is probably going to be around 1% or negative.

• That's a huge gap that needs to be funded because creating a recession would be inevitable since the US economy is 220% of GDP in debt with interest rates at 4% while growth is only at 1%.

Monetary Stimulus Continues After Recession

In this section, the speaker talks about why monetary stimulus continues long after a recession.

Banks' Yield Curve Engineering

• The banks are saying that rates are too damn high; thus they have to engineer a false yield curve by having a half percent deposit rate so that they can have a positively sloping yield curve.

• Basically, we need a yield curve that is positively sloping, which means that the FED needs to cut to 300 basis points pretty fast.

Unemployment and Rents

• Unemployment lags by a long way as do rents.

• Going out for the next 18 months to two years from the bottom of the cycle, we will see unemployment rising and dragging.

• That whole situation is why monetary stimulus continues a long time after a recession because employment is always lagging.

Business Cycle Peak

• Eventually, the economy gets traction again, and we go into the business cycle, which looks like it peaks sometime in 2025 according to that same thing.

The Structural Forces Behind Fed Policy

In this section, the speaker discusses how there are deeper structural forces that the Fed and other central banks are subject to, beyond just Fed policy. These forces include demographics, decisions made over the last few decades to address demographic changes, and the debt cycle.

Structural Forces Beyond Fed Policy

• Demographics and decisions made over the last few decades have left us with a debt cycle that is more fundamental to society and the economy than just Fed policy.

• The baby boom after World War II created a demographic force that led to too many people sharing the pie, which ultimately resulted in the death of the American dream.

• Globalization of labor force and technology have further exacerbated these issues by leaving people with no chance but to borrow debt. This has led to political divides between different regions of America.

Societal Shifts Since 2008

In this section, the speaker talks about how societal shifts since 2008 have given rise to crypto, Occupy Wall Street, Wall Street bets, and online network communities where people are taking control of their own financial systems.

Rise of Crypto and Online Communities

• Societal shifts since 2008 have given rise to crypto as well as online network communities where people are getting together to take control of their own financial systems in different ways.

• These shifts represent a societally structural shift that happened in 2008 in ways we won't understand for maybe several decades but it changed everything.

The Problems of the 70s

In this section, the speaker discusses how the problems of the 70s are often discussed as a policy phenomenon, but they were actually caused by much more fundamental and underlying demographic and structural trends.

Problems of the 70s

• The problems of the 70s are often discussed as a policy phenomenon, but they were actually caused by much more fundamental and underlying demographic and structural trends.

• More people than ever before were coming into jobs and competing which was causing inflation.

Room for Agency Within Structural Trends

In this section, the speaker talks about how there is room for agency within larger demographic and structural trends. Different Fed chairs might have made different decisions in the past that would have influenced how problematic inflation became due to these demographic factors.

Room for Agency Within Structural Trends

• There is room for agency within larger demographic and structural trends. Different Fed chairs might have made different decisions in the past that would have influenced how problematic inflation became due to these demographic factors.

• Looking towards the future, policymakers will need to make inflection point type decisions regarding things like balance sheets to navigate these larger structural forces.

The Exponential Age

In this section, the speaker discusses the exponential age and how it is changing the world.

The Exponential Age Thesis

• The exponential age thesis states that we are at a nexus of technology that mankind has never gone through before.

• This technological change will happen in the shortest period of time ever.

• Crypto was the start of this trend, and AI, self-driving cars, robotics, genetic sciences, and space exploration are all part of it.

Impact on Productivity

• The only outcome is to increase productivity to deal with these changes.

• Demographics is destiny and we cannot grow new people or accept large waves of immigrants in most countries because we don't have enough productivity.

• Productivity has not been increasing enough in this exponential age.

Energy Efficiency

• All technology does is leverage energy into an output.

• Renewables are becoming more efficient and cost-effective, which is a game changer for productivity.

The Role of Policymakers

In this section, the speaker discusses what policymakers can do about the challenges posed by the exponential age.

Increasing Productivity

• Policymakers need to focus on increasing productivity through education and investment in technology.

• They also need to address income inequality by implementing policies that redistribute wealth.

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

• UBI could be a solution to income inequality caused by automation.

• Policymakers need to consider UBI as a way to provide a safety net for those who lose their jobs due to automation.

Conclusion

• Policymakers need to be proactive in addressing the challenges posed by the exponential age.

• They need to focus on increasing productivity, addressing income inequality, and considering UBI as a solution.

The Impact of Exponential Technology on GDP Growth and Energy Independence

In this section, the speaker discusses how exponential technology will impact GDP growth and energy independence.

Exponential Technology and Productivity

• The way to get out of the current economic mess is through GDP growth per capita.

• Dropping the cost of energy down to two bucks means that energy becomes infinite.

• Governments want to drive down the cost of electricity for energy independence, which will lead to a distributed grid of electricity.

Geopolitics and Energy Independence

• The US is energy independent, which is why it has been slower on green initiatives.

• Europe needs to be faster in adopting green initiatives because it is not energy independent.

• Geopolitics shapes technology as countries compete in a technology race for space conquest, AI, and quantum computing.

Forces Shaping the World Today

In this section, the speaker discusses the different forces shaping today's world.

Demographic Trends, Debt Structure, and Exponential Technology

• Demographic trends, debt structure accumulated over 50 years, and exponential technology are competing forces shaping today's world.

Geopolitical Realignment

• Moving from a unipolar world to a multi-polar world is changing global security resources.

• People have realized that they cannot rely on a globalized supply chain when they are not all in agreement anymore, leading to a change in supply chains.

• The fight with crypto and everything else is the system of money, with the US dollar being so dominant that it has captured many benefits.

China's Structural Shift and AI

In this section, the speaker discusses China's structural shift and how AI is bigger than China entering the WTO.

China's Structural Shift

• China coming into the world stage was a big structural shift until AI came along.

• The Chinese population shrinking means their economic power will go down.

AI

• Quantum computing is another one of these power law exponentials because if you completely change how much data can get crunched in one go, everything changes.

• AI is bigger than China entering the WTO.

The Role of the US Dollar in Geopolitics

In this section, Raoul Pal discusses the role of the US dollar in global trade and its impact on geopolitics. He explains how the dollar has become problematic as the US has become a smaller part of global GDP, leading to a global shortage of dollars. Despite this, he believes that it is unlikely for countries to walk away from the dollar system quickly due to the massive amount of debt denominated in dollars.

The Importance of the Dollar System

• The US dollar was significant because it was stable and represented a large part of global GDP.

• Currently, there is a global shortage of dollars due to the US not supplying as much into the system anymore.

• 87% of all world trade and 50-70% of all world debts are denominated in dollars.

• Walking away from the dollar system would be disastrous since most people have dollar debts and income.

Limitations Imposed by Dollar Debt

• Dollar debt shapes decisions made by countries and limits their ability to make changes.

• Accumulation of dollar debt over time restricts agency and creates economic slavery.

• Adoption of digital technologies increases probability for adoption of digital systems like Bitcoin.

Conclusion

• While it may be difficult for countries to walk away from the dollar system quickly, Raoul Pal sees Bitcoin as an answer to gaining agency back in one's life.

Cryptocurrency and Trust

In this section, the speaker discusses how individuals can use cryptocurrency to exert agency and have alternatives against monetary regimes. The loss of trust in traditional systems has led to the adoption of cryptocurrencies by individuals. Sovereign wealth funds are also potential players in the market.

Role of Cryptocurrency

• Individuals can use cryptocurrency to exert agency and have alternatives against monetary regimes.

• Loss of trust in traditional systems has led to the adoption of cryptocurrencies by individuals.

• Sovereign wealth funds are potential players in the market for cryptocurrencies.

Advantages and Disadvantages

• Cryptocurrencies work well as a long-term savings option because they offset currency debasement driven by debt and demographics.

• However, cryptocurrencies are too volatile for daily transactions due to their fluctuating prices.

Ethereum's Impact

• Ethereum's yield and liquid stake provide a money market curve for the internet, creating a global digital economy.

• A whole new economy has been built with Ethereum that people haven't realized yet.

The End of Consensus Reality

In this section, the speaker discusses how the internet has disrupted the period of consensus reality that was shaped by media in America for the back half of last century and the beginning of this one. He also talks about how a shared digital ledger that is public and viewable becomes an incredibly valuable thing as a source of truth.

The Internet and Consensus Reality

• The internet disrupted the period of consensus reality shaped by media in America.

• A shared digital ledger that is public and viewable becomes an incredibly valuable thing as a source of truth.

AI and Shifting to Default Assumptions

• As AI has become generative, we feel ourselves shifting to a default assumption that things we see are not real in the sense of the word used 20 years ago but are created or shaped.

Inflection Point Moment with AI

In this section, the speaker talks about his personal experience with recognizing AI as different from just another new technology. He also discusses how he got into AI through an old friend who was working on pandemic AI modeling.

Personal Experience with Recognizing AI

• The speaker's personal experience with recognizing AI was when an old friend who was working on pandemic AI modeling hit him up.

• The interview with his friend gave him a pretty grim assessment of where the virus was coming from.

Acceleration Moment with First Interview

• The first breakthrough for the speaker was understanding that reality doesn't exist in the way we understand it anymore.

• The speaker had an acceleration moment with the first interview with his friend where he realized that AI was happening now and it was replacing human knowledge at scale.

Replacement of Human Knowledge

• The understanding that knowledge is infinitely scalable makes this period fascinating.

• AI replaces human knowledge at scale, making it infinitely scalable.

Inflection Point Moment with Chat GPT

In this section, the speaker talks about how the six-month period starting with the introduction of chat GPT in November of last year plus the advance of majority and Dolly and stable diffusion will be seen as the inflection point moment. He also discusses how chat GPT went from zero to 100 million users in just five weeks.

Inflection Point Moment

• The six-month period starting with the introduction of chat GPT in November of last year plus the advance of majority and Dolly and stable diffusion will be seen as the inflection point moment.

• Chat GPT went from zero to 100 million users in just five weeks, which was four times faster than Tick Tock.

Personal Experience with Chat GPT

• The speaker's personal experience with chat GPT was when an old friend who was working on pandemic AI modeling hit him up.

• Within three months of that hitting, which was a big shock to everybody, that interview became a huge shock.

The Inevitability of Crypto and AI

In this section, the speaker discusses how crypto and AI are inevitable consequences of new technology. He explains that while early adopters understand the implications of these technologies, the average person may not see their relevance.

The Implications of AI

• The combination of chat interfaces sitting on top of GPT4 or GPT 3.5 has made people see way faster what the implications are for themselves.

• People are already discussing how chat GPT is going to change real estate forever because you don't need to write listings in the same way.

• There is a race for people to understand how their industry, jobs, and specific skill set will be disrupted by AI.

• People have almost entirely skipped over being mad that AI is likely to replace them and jumped right into figuring out how they can change.

Disruption from Technology

• The largest disinflationary shock the world will ever have is happening due to technology replacing human workers at scale.

• Augmented humans could become super productive units but once baby boomers have died off there may not be enough work for everyone.

• While web 3 was leading to a need to support incomes for people through universal basic income arguments, it's unclear if we can employ more humans in areas where productivity has increased since robots are also coming.

Overall, the speaker emphasizes that while these technological changes may be scary for some, they are inevitable and those who adapt will thrive.

Universal Basic Equity

In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of Universal Basic Equity in web 3 and decentralized digital communities.

Ownership in Digital Communities

• In decentralized digital communities, individuals can own assets or currency within those communities.

• Individuals can be rewarded for being a good community member.

• Tokenized assets create loyalty and participation in the success of brands and cultures.

Purpose in Digital Societies

• The speaker believes that not everyone will be able to have super computing AI skills, so we need to find a purpose beyond work output.

• Digital societies provide a place of trust where individuals can find purpose through humanity, culture, brand businesses, etc.

• These digital societies allow individuals to pick up their assets and move on to another community if they choose.

Society's Struggle with Exponential Age

In this section, the speaker discusses society's struggle with exponential age and how it will impact our understanding of truth, human roles, and where everything is leading.

Mega Trends Impacting Society

• Unlimited energy at low cost combined with AI robotics creates exponential knowledge growth.

• Commercialization is happening on a massive scale outside sovereign control in non-sovereign places like space.

Stakes are High

• The stakes are high because exponential computing power combined with self-learning AI could lead to the end of humanity.

• However, there is also potential for humans to feel value beyond what they contribute to corporations or economies.

The Impact of AI on Jobs and Existential Risks

In this section, the speaker discusses the impact of AI on jobs and existential risks.

The Positive Side of AI

• There is an explosion of people building apps in the AI ecosystem.

• Humans are empowered in ways they have never been before, leading to unbelievable breakthroughs in medicine, healthcare, longevity spans, and other areas.

The Negative Side of AI

• Short-term risks include displacement and chaos for those unable to make the transition to new jobs.

• Long-term risks include existential threats such as x-risk (existential risk from advanced artificial intelligence).

• Genetic gene editing using AI is a concern due to its potential for creating viruses that target specific groups based on genetic traits.

Population Shrinkage and Productivity Need

• The global population is shrinking, which leads to a need for productivity.

• Robots and AI are seen as a solution to deal with a shrinking global population.

• However, robots and AI are exponential in their knowledge scaling, which could lead to unintended consequences such as killing humanity.

Adversarial Use of Technology

• The AI safety conversation needs to include adversarial use of technology where it already stands.

The Challenge of Aligning AI with Humanity

In this section, the speakers discuss the challenge of aligning AI with humanity and how it is impossible to regulate it.

Alignment of AI with Humanity

• The idea of alignment is to get AI aligned with humanity, but there is no clear way to achieve this.

• AGI appears to learn in ways that are not human-like, making it difficult to align with humanity.

• Humans are not aligned themselves due to differences in philosophical beliefs and societal constructs. Therefore, aligning AI with humanity seems impossible.

Regulation of AI

• It is impossible to regulate AI since it is distributed and unstoppable.

• Open-sourcing AI can be a solution, but it also accelerates its development and makes it unstoppable.

• Self-opting into restrictions may be necessary since governmental regulation seems unlikely.

Importance of Conversations about AI Safety

In this section, the speakers emphasize the importance of conversations about AI safety and how different groups have varying perspectives on the topic.

Importance of Conversations about AI Safety

• Conversations about AI safety are crucial given the potential implications of its development.

• After experiencing chat GPT for the first time, 100 million new people now understand they have a stake in conversations about AI safety.

Varying Perspectives on Conversations about AI Safety

• Some individuals view conversations about AI safety as inaccessible or condescending while others are excited by its potential implications.

• There is a need for a middle ground where individuals can appreciate the wonder of AI while also recognizing its implications.

Challenges in Regulating AI

In this section, the speakers discuss the challenges in regulating AI and how it is difficult to predict its development.

Challenges in Regulating AI

• It is impossible to regulate AI since it is distributed and unstoppable.

• The unpredictability of AI development makes it challenging to regulate.

• Tech companies are more focused on business opportunities than safety concerns, making regulation even more difficult.

English The Future of Advertising and the Metaverse

In this section, the speakers discuss the impact of AI on advertising and how it will affect the internet's basic infrastructure. They also talk about the emergence of a metaverse experience and its intersection with AI-powered applications.

The Impact of AI on Advertising

• Microsoft Bing is becoming a realistic competitor to Google, which is losing its market share due to Samsung considering removing Google as their default browser.

• The internet's basic infrastructure is funded by advertising, but with AI taking over, it raises questions about how advertising will work in this new world.

• Most businesses are funded by advertising, but with search engines no longer driving traffic, there needs to be a new model for monetization.

The Emergence of a Metaverse Experience

• Google is working on Project Magi, which is a fundamental reimagining of search that involves chat-mediated experiences instead of 10 results per page.

• The digitization trend has led to a logical place being a metaverse-style experience where humans can interact in digital societies.

• With faster compute power and better rendering capabilities from AI and Unreal Engine 5, digital worlds become easier to create.

Intersection of Metaverse NFTs with AI-Powered Applications

• Web3 was being chipped away at by ad-based businesses until it was nuked by AI. This may be an accelerant for web3.

• Platforms like Meta and Elon Musk's companies are moving away from ad-based models towards subscription-based ones with token integration.

• The digitization of knowledge is happening now, and the metaverse experience is the logical place for it to exist.

The Joy and Wonder of AI-Powered Applications

• It's important to shift away from big existential questions about AI and focus on the joy, wonder, and fun of what's now possible.

• There is a connection between emerging technologies like neural radiance fields, digital spaces, metaverse, web3, and AI-powered applications.

• The next exponential age bomb may be Apple's VR/AR glasses that are launching in June.

Apple's 3D Map of the World

In this section, the speakers discuss how Apple is creating a photo-realistic 3D map of the world that could change everything in the metaverse.

Apple's 3D Map of the World

• Apple has created a 3D map of the world that could change everything in the metaverse.

• The map is personalized and can be strung together with other worlds.

• This new experience will allow people to have a more immersive experience in a digitized world.

• The moment nobody is expecting is the metaverse moment potentially coming from Apple and not Facebook.

The Future of Metaverse

In this section, the speakers discuss their thoughts on what they see happening in each area (crypto, macro, AI), with a focus on metaverse.

The Future of Metaverse

• Facebook's renaming to Meta does not mean an end to metaverse.

• Apple may be able to reconcile data privacy issues by using localized data stored on users' devices for its AR/VR Nexus.

• Users can have their own digital maps of the world on their iPhones that are personalized and private.

• The models for AI can fit into two gigabytes, which can fit onto an iPhone.

Macro Forecasting

In this section, Raoul Pal discusses his macro forecast since March 2020.

Macro Forecasting

• The economy bottomed in March-April-May 2020, with negative two percent GDP.

• The market rallied, with cryptos advancing the most.

• The banking system is exposed to something that could lead to a disastrous recession.

Commercial Real Estate and Banking Crisis

In this section, Raoul Pal discusses the impact of commercial real estate on the banking crisis. He explains how the world has changed since 2009 and why the existential risk of a collapse of the global banking system in developed countries does not exist because of quantitative easing.

Recovery is Slow

• The recovery is going to be slow because these jobs are not coming back.

• Markets are likely to be very strong because of stimulus which is the key driver plus technology adoptions that are going to be everywhere.

• The worst was behind us, October was the low of the markets.

Impact on Commercial Real Estate

• Commercial real estate is not going away as nobody's going back to the office.

• There's a whole bunch of stuff that's just going to go fallow and that's going to have to be taken off banks.

• The US has too many banks; it's overbanked.

• Long-term stress ends up on FED balance sheet which takes collateral and gives loans to banks until they merge or slowly die.

Resolving Banking Crisis

• Quantitative easing ensures that existential crisis cannot happen, but payback is debased money and increased asset prices making future self poorer.

• Over-tightening can lead to engineering a crisis which helps get inflation down by cutting rates 300 basis points.

• Central banks support each other's bond markets through daisy chaining.

Macroeconomic Outlook

In this section, the speaker discusses the global push towards green energy and low-interest rates. He also talks about the productivity change that needs to happen and the geopolitical change.

Global Push for Green Energy

• There is a globalized agreement on the massive push to Green energy.

• The push is not just for global warming basis but also because of the productivity change that needs to happen and the geopolitical change.

• There's a push to keep rates as low as possible and use central bank balance sheets to fund interest payments.

Crypto and AI in Next Six Months

In this section, the speaker talks about his outlook on crypto and AI in the next six months.

Crypto Outlook

• The speaker is very positive about crypto overall.

• He thinks that it looks more like 2016/15 cycle which was a big spurt up.

• A lot of money went into VC into space, so he expects sticky long-term Mega Capital flows into space which is needed.

AI Outlook

• It's unforecastable where it will be in six months time.

• Every single person they speak to will be scrambling to try and figure out how to use it.

• People are going to have to figure out what is the killer model here.

Exponential Age Asset Management

In this section, the speaker talks about exponential age asset management.

• The global hedge fund industry in tradfy is three trillion dollars that's all pension fund money and Sovereign wealth fund money in high net worth and raas

• The digital asset hedge funds added together are about 5 billion one percent of size

• We're going to see a lot of capital flying into space proper Capital not just retail Capital but sticky long-term Mega Capital flows into the space which is needed.

The Future

In this section, the speaker talks about his outlook on the future.

• It's going to be hilarious because we have no idea.

• The next phase of the exponential age as well what is the next technology to ignite and then we've got to deal with crypto AI metaverse or whatever the virtual reality and then oh my God then we need to deal with genetic sciences and then we've got to deal with self-driving cars.

• We're trying to figure it all out.