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SCOTLAND | A Failed Independence?
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SCOTLAND | A Failed Independence?

The Future of Scottish Independence

New Leadership and Context

  • On March 27, 2023, Hamza Yousaf was elected as the new leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and became Scotland's First Minister.
  • The backdrop includes Brexit, declining public support for independence, and internal divisions within the independence movement, raising questions about Scotland's quest for statehood.

Historical Perspective on Independence Movements

  • Globally, many groups seek independence; however, only a few succeed. Since 2000, only Montenegro and South Sudan have gained UN membership through this route.
  • Most territories face repression or political settlements that diminish calls for independence.

The Concept of an "Independence Moment"

  • The idea of an "independence moment" suggests there are specific times when conditions align favorably for a territory to pursue statehood.
  • Scotland previously seemed closer to independence after rejecting it in 2014 but showed increasing support following Brexit.

Scotland's Historical Union with England

  • Scotland covers approximately 80,000 square kilometers and has a population of around 5.5 million—about 8% of the UK's total population.
  • Historically, Scotland emerged as a kingdom in the mid-9th century and began uniting with England in the early 17th century.

Political Developments Leading to Referendums

  • A political union was established on May 1, 1707, creating Great Britain; this arrangement lasted nearly three centuries.
  • In 1997, a referendum led to re-establishing a permanent Scottish Parliament with limited powers defined by the Scotland Act passed in 1998.

Recent Push for Independence

  • Following SNP's significant victory in May 2011 elections advocating for independence, discussions about another referendum intensified.
  • The first referendum on September 18, 2014 resulted in a majority (55%) voting against independence despite high voter turnout (85%).

Impact of Brexit on Independence Sentiment

  • The UK’s decision to leave the EU in June 2016 reignited calls for another referendum due to contrasting votes between Scots (62% wanting to remain).
  • Despite growing demands for another vote post-Brexit, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson rejected these requests citing the previous referendum as conclusive.

Legislative Actions Towards Future Referendums

  • In December 2019, SNP won most seats in Parliament on a pro-independence platform; Sturgeon formally requested powers from Johnson for another vote.

Constitutional Challenges and the Future of Scottish Independence

Supreme Court Ruling on Referendum Legislation

  • The British Supreme Court unanimously rejected the Scottish Government's claim to legislate for a referendum on independence, raising significant constitutional questions under the 1998 Scotland Act.
  • This ruling in November 2022 marked a substantial setback for independence advocates.

Leadership Changes in the SNP

  • Nicola Sturgeon announced her resignation as SNP leader and First Minister after eight years, leading to Humza Yousaf's election as her successor in March 2023.
  • The leadership transition raises questions about how it will impact Scotland's independence prospects amidst ongoing resistance from the British government.

Resistance from the British Government

  • Successive Conservative Prime Ministers have been reluctant to risk another referendum, fearing they could be the ones to lose Scotland. This includes David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak.
  • The Supreme Court's decision has effectively closed off alternative routes for constitutional separation, complicating efforts for a new vote without UK permission.

International Implications of Unilateral Action

  • Attempts at unilateral secession by Scotland could face intense international opposition similar to Catalonia’s experience in 2017. Many countries are hesitant to support separatist movements due to their own internal challenges.
  • Potential barriers include being blocked from joining international organizations like the UN or EU if Scotland were to declare independence unilaterally.

Impact of Brexit on Independence Sentiment

  • Despite overwhelming opposition to Brexit in Scotland, there has been a shift in public opinion regarding independence since Britain left the EU; concerns about economic implications have emerged prominently.
  • Polling indicates that economic costs associated with leaving the UK significantly influence support for independence among voters who are undecided or 'soft' supporters of statehood.

Political Landscape and Internal Party Dynamics

  • Nicola Sturgeon's departure has led to waning support for SNP as infighting within party factions increases; some former SNP voters are returning to Labour and even seeing slight gains for Conservatives.
  • A recent scandal involving party finances linked to Sturgeon’s husband may further affect perceptions among soft supporters of independence despite solid backing from core pro-independence groups.

Conclusion: Current State of Independence Movement

  • While there remains a strong base supporting Scottish independence (40% - 45%), conditions for staging and winning a referendum have become more challenging due to political dynamics and external pressures such as Brexit and governmental resistance.
Channel: Prof James Ker-Lindsay - Videos
Video description

Has Scotland lost its best hope for independence? In March 2023, Humza Yousaf was elected as the new leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) and as the First Minister of Scotland. He will now take charge of efforts to lead the country to complete independence. But has Scotland missed its best chance to become a sovereign state? Although Scotland emerged as a kingdom in the ninth century, in 1603, James VI of Scotland became King of England, thus uniting the crowns of the two countries. Just over a century later, in 1707, the two parliaments merged to form Great Britain. However, in 1997, Scotland voted to re-establish its own parliament. This paved the way for an eventual referendum on independence on 18 September 2014. However, Scottish voters rejected this by 55% to 45%. Since then, Scotland has made a case for secession - especially after the Brexit referendum, which saw English voters pull Scotland out of the European Union. But even though support for independence appeared to be rising, the numbers now seem to be falling. So, is the dream of Scottish independence now over? *MY NEW BOOK!* Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know Oxford University Press https://global.oup.com/academic/product/secession-and-state-creation-9780190494049 Amazon https://amzn.to/2MPY3W2 *SUPPORT THE CHANNEL* Hello and welcome! My name is James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at International Relations, conflict, security, and statehood. If you like what you see, please consider subscribing. If you want more, including exclusive content and access to the channel Discord server, please consider becoming a Channel Member or support me through Patreon. I would greatly appreciate your support. Thank you! SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE http://www.youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay?sub_confirmation=1 BECOME A CHANNEL MEMBER http://www.youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay/join JOIN MY PATREON PAGE https://www.patreon.com/JamesKerLindsay *VIDEO CHAPTERS* 00:00 Introduction and Titles 00:47 Scotland and the ‘Independence Moment’ 02:02 Scotland: Location and Population 02:29 History of Scotland: From Kingdom to Union with England 03:09 Scottish Devolution and the Independence Referendum 04:45 Scotland after the Independence Referendum 07:23 Problem 1: British Resistance to Independence 08:45 Problem 2: Brexit and a Hard Border 10:24 Problem 3: The SNP and the Independence Movement 11:22 Has Scotland Lost its Best Chance for Independence? *SOURCES AND FURTHER READING* Scottish Parliament https://www.parliament.scot Scottish Government https://www.gov.scot Scotland Act 1998 https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/contents Scottish Independence Referendum Bill https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/strategy-plan/2022/06/scottish-independence-referendum-bill/documents/scottish-independence-referendum-bill/scottish-independence-referendum-bill/govscot%3Adocument/Draft%2BBill%2B-%2B27%2BJune%2B2022.pdf Supreme Court Judgement on Scottish Independence Referendum | November 2022 https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf What Scotland Thinks https://whatscotlandthinks.org *EQUIPMENT USED TO MAKE THIS VIDEO* https://kit.co/JamesKerLindsay *DISCLAIMERS* - The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation. - Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel and will be at no additional cost to you. #Scotland #Independence #UnitedKingdom #SNP