PM’s Economic Advisor: Sanjeev Sanyal On Economic Reforms, India’s Growth & PM Modi | TRS 294

Introduction

In this section, the host introduces Sanjeev Sanyal and explains why he is an important guest to have on the show.

Introducing Sanjeev Sanyal

• The host introduces Sanjeev Sanyal as someone who has worked with the Prime Minister for six years and is willing to change his mind based on evidence.

• Sanjeev Sanyal works directly with the PM of India as an economic advisor and helps decide where the nation goes in terms of money and growth.

Conclusion

In this section, the host concludes the episode and provides information about where listeners can find more content from him.

Wrapping Up

• Follow The Ranveer Show on Spotify for more conversations like this one.

• Thank you message from the host.

• End of episode.

Job Description and Background

In this section, the speaker explains his job as an economic advisor to Prime Minister Modi. He also talks about his background in economics and financial markets.

Becoming an Economic Advisor

• The speaker studied economics at Delhi University and Oxford University.

• He worked as a financial markets economist for 22 years, managing investments, risks, uncertainty, and making bets on global markets.

• In 2015, he was approached by political leadership to work in the government.

Job Description

• As an economic advisor to Prime Minister Modi, the speaker provides economic advice on how to run the economy.

• His job involves a lot of traveling and dealing with crises such as COVID shocks or G20 meetings.

• There is no pattern to his day-to-day work since it's very choppy.

Eligibility and Skills

In this section, the speaker talks about why he was chosen for his position as an economic advisor. He also discusses the skills required for his job.

Eligibility

• The speaker was sounded out by political leadership whether he was willing to come over and work in the government.

• There are relatively few eligible people in any field.

Required Skills

• Being imaginative is essential because unlike academics where there's not much skin in the game here things would blow up if you got it wrong.

• You need a lot of respect for markets because they can do things that you can't imagine suddenly happen.

Working in the Indian Government

In this section, the guest talks about how he ended up working in the Indian government and his job profile.

How He Ended Up Working in the Government

• The guest was part of the Prime Minister's Economic Council, which consisted of macroeconomists.

• He joined the government as Principal Economic Advisor to the Finance Minister in February 2017.

• Not everyone wants to work for the government due to various reasons such as ideological or political differences.

• The guest is a technocrat and not interested in politics.

Job Profile

• The guest's current job is similar to his previous one but more strategic than operational.

• As part of his job, he worked on a report re-looking at India's list of nationally protected monuments.

Working in PM Modi's Office

In this section, the host asks about what it is like working in PM Modi's office on a day-to-day basis.

Day-to-Day Work

• The Prime Minister's Office (PMO) is extremely busy with almost no time to spare.

• There are many meetings throughout the day with different people from various departments.

• The work involves thinking about policy issues and providing advice to senior officials.

Introduction

In this section, the speaker introduces himself and his role in the Prime Minister's Office. He explains that he is part of a core team that deals with day-to-day issues, but his role involves thinking about longer-term issues.

Speaker's Role

• The speaker is part of a core team in the Prime Minister's Office.

• His role involves thinking about longer-term issues.

• He has time to do research and write working papers on various topics.

Working Papers

• A working paper is a slightly more formal thought-through paper on an issue.

• The speaker writes working papers on various topics, such as India's patenting system.

Strategic Thinking

• The speaker's role involves strategic thinking rather than day-to-day fighting.

Responsibility and Criticism

In this section, the speaker talks about his responsibility for criticism or credit that the government will receive in the future. He also discusses online trolling and how it affects him personally.

Responsibility for Criticism or Credit

• The speaker is responsible for criticism or credit that the government will receive in some capacity.

• Implementation plays a significant role in determining whether ideas are successful or not.

Online Trolling

• The speaker gets trolled all the time on Twitter.

• Trolls criticize everything he says, even if it is something as simple as "the sun rises in the East."

• Trolling is part of social media, and fake accounts are created explicitly for trolling.

Working with PM Modi

In this section, the speaker talks about his experience working with Prime Minister Modi. He discusses the Prime Minister's listening skills and ability to change his mind when presented with evidence.

Listening Skills

• The Prime Minister is an excellent listener.

• The speaker has worked with him for six years and has been in many one-to-one meetings.

• The Prime Minister changes his mind when presented with evidence contrary to his preconceived ideas.

Feedback Loops

• The Prime Minister is all about feedback loops.

• His ability to listen is his biggest strength as a leader.

Navigating Stormy Waters

In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of being a leader in a constantly changing and chaotic environment.

The Nature of the Job

• Leaders are constantly hit by all kinds of shocks, making it difficult to achieve perfection.

• The job is to navigate through stormy waters and get big things done despite disruptions.

• Elections, natural disasters, and other unexpected events add to the chaos.

Managing Chaos

• The key is managing chaos and believing in your team.

• Infrastructure projects continued during COVID despite disruptions.

• Mistakes will happen but it's about providing leadership when things go wrong.

Being a Politician

• Being a politician is a tough 24/7 job that takes a toll on mental health.

• Constituents expect politicians to respond to their needs at all times.

• It's not a one-way relationship as constituents also expect politicians to canvass for votes come election time.

Importance of Feedback

In this section, the speaker talks about the importance of feedback and how to filter it.

Honest vs Ideologically Driven Feedback

• Good feedback is important.

• Some feedback is honest while some is ideologically or politically driven.

• You have to filter out the ideologically driven feedback.

Personality and Genuine Feedback

• Some people will criticize you even if you did something genuinely good.

• You have to filter those people out.

• There are people who give genuine feedback and we take it all the time.

Role of Mainstream Media in Today's World

In this section, the speaker discusses the role of mainstream media in today's world and how it has evolved over time.

Importance of Mainstream Media

• YouTube is only one source, mainstream media still plays a part in discussions.

• Mainstream media provides the base on which many discussions happen.

Evolution of Mainstream Media

• Mainstream media has changed and evolved over time.

• New platforms are popping up all the time including YouTube, A&I, Smitha's show, Prakash's show, Arnav's debating style etc.

Different Markets for Information

• Different markets exist for different subjects from different sources.

• People are bombarded with information from various sources like alumni groups, WhatsApp etc.

Filtering Garbage Information

• People have become better at filtering garbage information.

• Most people are now more skeptical of WhatsApp forwards than they were five years ago.

India's Future and Current Government

In this section, the speaker talks about the current government in India and its future.

General Consensus on Current Government

• The general consensus is that the current government is the right one for the world's current scenario.

• Urban elites are primarily those who don't agree with this.

Staying Centrist as a Media Professional

• As a media professional, it is important to stay centrist irrespective of personal emotions or beliefs.

Becoming Rich and Powerful

In this section, the speaker discusses how a country can become rich and powerful. He talks about the dangers of relying on natural resources to become rich and emphasizes the importance of having a widely-based economy with many entrepreneurs.

Two Ways to Become Rich

• The first way to become rich is by having natural resources like minerals within the country that can be mined and exported.

• However, relying solely on natural resources is dangerous because it attracts large powers who may take an interest in your existence.

• The second way to become rich is by having many more entrepreneurs and businesses in the country, which will directly impact the economy and make it richer.

Government's Role in Creating Entrepreneurs

• The government's job is not to run businesses but rather create a stable climate for entrepreneurship by regulating inflation, providing infrastructure such as roads and airports, and making it easier for people to do business.

• The goal of the government is to sprout out a horde of new entrepreneurs so that India's energy can come from bottom-up rather than top-down.

• However, there are trade-offs that need to be made when trying to help entrepreneurs. Sometimes what helps one group may make it difficult for another group.

Bottom-Up Approach

In this section, the speaker explains how India's energy needs to come from bottom-up rather than top-down. He uses cricket terms as an analogy for explaining how the government should create infrastructure while workers and entrepreneurs play their part.

BCCI Analogy

• The government is like BCCI whose job is to create rules, organize matches, provide infrastructure such as fields, and umpires.

• The actual match is played by the players who are the workers, entrepreneurs, and other professionals.

Importance of Education and Health

• Education is important but so is health. Making highways also comes from money which comes from the workforce that arises from entrepreneurship.

• All these things are interconnected, and trade-offs need to be made when trying to help one group over another.

Introduction to Economics

In this section, the speaker explains that a successful country cannot only have a good health system or education system. Instead, it needs to balance different aspects of the economy.

The Importance of Balancing Different Aspects of the Economy

• An economy is like an ecological system where everything is interconnected.

• If you only invest in one thing, it will not be enough for the entire economy to thrive.

• The game is about balancing different requirements and keeping things going.

Different Approaches to Running an Economy

• One approach is having wise men sitting in a Planning Commission who plan how the economy should run. This was the mindset before 1991 reforms.

• Another approach is allowing a mixture of things where entrepreneurship and ideas are generated by the economy, and the market decides what succeeds or fails.

• A third approach allows purely markets to decide based on who has money. However, there still needs to be some government involvement such as auctioning airwaves and providing supporting infrastructure.

Why Top-down Systems Fail

• Historically, systems that allow for creativity at multiple levels have been vastly superior than top-down systems where wise men decide where to go.

• Allowing risk-taking means that some part of it will always fail. Insolvency and bankruptcy codes help deal with this churn.

• Failure is not necessarily bad; it's just part of taking risks.

Conclusion: Failure Is Not Bad

In this section, the speaker concludes that failure is not bad but rather an essential part of taking risks in business.

Failure Is Not Bad

• Just because you failed does not make you a bad person. Failure is not a bad thing; it's just part of taking risks.

• Trying and failing is better than not trying at all.

Creative Destruction and the Importance of Allowing Companies to Fail

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of allowing companies to fail and how it contributes to a healthier system as a whole. He gives examples from the aviation industry in India and compares it to the domestic airlines industry in the US.

Allowing Companies to Fail

• The speaker emphasizes that allowing companies to fail is important for creative destruction.

• Jet Airways was once the largest private airline in India but failed and shut down. However, other companies expanded quickly, new airlines emerged, and privatization occurred. As a result, the civil aviation sector in India became healthier.

• The US pioneered this kind of capitalism where creative destruction happens except for their internal civil aviation market. This has resulted in terrible domestic airlines compared to other countries.

Incorporating Startups in India vs Singapore or Dubai

In this section, the speaker talks about startups wanting to incorporate outside of India due to tax implications when selling off their startups. He also mentions how the Indian government is trying to address this issue.

Selling Off Startups

• Many startups want to incorporate outside of India because they eventually want to sell off their startups without paying high taxes.

• The speaker acknowledges that selling off startups is part of creative destruction but believes that Indian startups should be able to do it within India.

Government Efforts

• The Indian government is aware of this issue and has created initiatives like Startup India which have been helpful for some startups.

• However, Singapore and Dubai are formidable competitors so there's pressure on India to keep up. The government is working on fixing tax and regulatory issues to make it easier for startups to incorporate in India.

The Importance of Natural Resources

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of natural resources and how they can impact a country's development.

Natural Resources and Economic Development

• Countries that rely solely on one natural resource, such as oil, historically have not become developed countries.

• If a country is entirely based on a natural resource, its society may become unidimensional and lack the skills needed to develop beyond that resource.

• It is important to build capacities in other areas beyond natural resources to ensure long-term economic growth.

Diversification of Resources

• The UAE has built an urban hub for business, trade, and finance despite having limited oil resources. This diversification allows them to survive beyond the oil industry.

• A healthy economy requires a mix of services, industry, mining, construction activity, farming, etc.

• Using up a natural resource means future generations will not have access to it. Therefore it is important to use it but also value add on top of it.

India's Greatest Resource

In this section, the speaker discusses what he believes is India's greatest resource.

Youth vs Internet

• While many believe India's greatest resource is its youth population, the speaker argues that widespread internet access is actually more critical.

• Both youth and internet are necessary for mobilizing information and creating change. They feed into each other in an evolving ecological system.

Introduction

The host and guest introduce themselves and discuss the topic of the podcast. They also mention two geopolitical observers, Rajiv Malhotra and someone else.

Introducing the Podcast

• The podcast is economics-based.

• The host asks questions based on geopolitical events.

• Two geopolitical observers are mentioned: Rajiv Malhotra and another person.

About Rajiv Malhotra

• Rajiv Malhotra is an engineer who specializes in artificial intelligence (AI).

• He believes that AI will change multiple industries, including tech and content creation.

• American companies own many algorithms, which can be a geopolitical weapon.

• Indian engineers claim that there is talent available in India to build something like GPT but it hasn't happened yet.

Feedback from Geopolitical Observers

The guest explains how feedback from various sources, including geopolitical observers like Rajiv Malhotra, helps him stay informed about current events.

Sources of Feedback

• The guest receives feedback from a large number of people.

• Some feedback comes directly or indirectly from geopolitical observers like Rajiv Malhotra.

• Other feedback comes from reading papers or books.

Algorithms and Geopolitics

The guest discusses the role of algorithms in governing human emotion, opinions, and even geopolitical narratives.

Understanding Algorithms

• An algorithm is an equation or set of equations that allows for certain patterns to play out.

• People assume that algorithms are objective truths because they are based on equations.

Dangers of Algorithms

• Algorithms can be swayed by particular biases or interests.

• American companies own many algorithms, which can be a geopolitical weapon.

Conclusion

The guest concludes by emphasizing that the world of AI and algorithms is complex and messy, with many inflows and outflows of information.

The World of AI

• Many American companies are developing AI in India.

• There are many things going on in India regarding AI.

• The world of AI is complex and messy, with many inflows and outflows of information.

Wikipedia Bias and Algorithm Manipulation

In this section, the speaker discusses how Wikipedia entries are continuously tempered with by a group of editors who are ideologically tilted in a particular way. The algorithm used by Wikipedia is not objective truth and can be manipulated over time or externally nudged in a particular direction.

Ideological Tilt of Editors

• A hierarchy of editors has been created on Wikipedia who are ideologically tilted in a particular way.

• Vikram Sampath was mentioned as an example of someone whose Wikipedia entry is not neutral.

• Systematically, a bunch of people mess with the entries to tilt them in their favor.

Algorithm Manipulation

• The algorithm used by Wikipedia is not objective truth and can be manipulated over time or externally nudged in a particular direction.

• People who use chat GPTM may get an impression that they are getting objective truths but it's not the case.

• The chances of manipulation are not trivial, and it's getting infected every aspect of life.

• Your reality is driven by this somewhat managed algorithm that is being used to manipulate you.

Echo Chambers and Geopolitics

In this section, the speaker talks about how people create bubbles around themselves where even human relationships get affected because of politics. They also discuss how opinions can sway things like vaccine efficacy, which has enormous implications for what kind of vaccine becomes standard. Additionally, they talk about how geopolitics can be played using these algorithms.

Echo Chambers

• People create bubbles around themselves where even human relationships get affected because of politics.

• Someone who's extremely anti-modi will surround themselves with anti-modi people.

• This ideological field can happen with many other things as well, like technology frameworks or opinions on football players.

Vaccine Efficacy and Geopolitics

• Opinions can sway things like vaccine efficacy, which has enormous implications for what kind of vaccine becomes standard.

• Geopolitics can be played using these algorithms.

Global Acceptance and Clustering Effect

In this section, the speaker talks about how global acceptance creates a clustering effect that makes it difficult for something done by an Indian company to take over spaces dominated by American companies. They also discuss how Twitter cannot be easily recreated in India because you need everybody to be in the same place for it to work.

Global Acceptance and Clustering Effect

• Global acceptance creates a clustering effect that makes it difficult for something done by an Indian company to take over spaces dominated by American companies.

• Twitter cannot be easily recreated in India because you need everybody to be in the same place for it to work.

Wikipedia Biases and Political Systems

In this section, the speaker talks about how despite knowing its biases, people still use Wikipedia as a source of information. They also discuss how India's political system is not set up for creating closed systems like China's.

Wikipedia Biases

• Despite knowing its biases, people still use Wikipedia as a source of information.

• It may not be exactly true, but you'll get an idea of what the whole thing is about.

Political Systems

• India's political system is not set up for creating closed systems like China's.

The Risks of Open Systems

In this section, the speaker discusses the risks associated with open systems like chat GPT and how we should be aware of these risks.

Open Systems and Risk

• General open systems like chat GPT do not have a way to manage risk.

• We need to be aware of the risks associated with open systems and push back against them in multiple ways.

ESG Norms and Decision Making

In this section, the speaker explains what ESG norms are and how they are being used by Western governments to influence decision making.

Environmental Social Governance (ESG) Norms

• ESG norms are environmental social governance norms that Western governments are pushing to make a part of all kinds of decision making.

• These norms can be subjective as there is no objective measure for what is good for society.

• Think tanks in the West create global narratives that influence our perception of certain things.

• If we accept these frameworks, we will have to take decisions in a particular way based on these norms.

The Power of Indices

In this section, the speaker talks about how indices can influence decision making and create an alternate reality if not managed properly.

Influence of Indices

• There are various indices such as academic freedom or democracy ratings that can influence decision making.

• These indices go into another index which goes into ESG norms, which can then run our lives if we're not paying attention.

• AI chatbots like GPT could get trained to feed on these indices and create an alternate reality based on them.

Manipulation by International Organizations

In this section, the speaker discusses how international organizations manipulate us through their studies and ratings.

Manipulation by International Organizations

• Many international organizations deliberately manipulate us through their studies and ratings.

• A lot of these studies are garbage and made up to manipulate us in some way.

• The speaker has published a working paper called "Reversing the Gaze" which talks about how international agencies love to tell us what to do.

Importance of Nuanced Discussions

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of nuanced discussions and explains why podcasts are growing in popularity.

Importance of Nuanced Discussions

• Nuanced discussions are missing from the internet today, which is why podcasts are growing in popularity.

• The speaker has been engaged with this debate for years and believes that we need to create debate about it and push back against it actively.

• If we don't pay attention, we will be deconstructed and told what to do.

Criticizing the Government and George Soros

In this section, Sanjeev Sanyal talks about how critics of the government often refer to only the West and use studies as gospel to criticize the government. He also discusses how powerful countries or governments have interests that may be at loggerheads with their own government, citing George Soros as an example.

Mistakes in Our System

• Critics of the government often refer to only the West and use studies as gospel to criticize the government.

• There are mistakes in our system's data systems, but there is clearly a tilt in a particular direction.

• The mistakes are always to the negative side, and the problem is always getting exaggerated rather than minimized.

Suspicion Around George Soros

• Powerful countries or governments have interests that may be at loggerheads with their own government.

• George Soros has historically used his billions of dollars to affect certain kinds of narratives in the world and effect changes in government.

• India has a right to be suspicious about all of this when he comes on television and says that India is wrong.

• It is effectively somebody threatening regime change in our country right, especially given his known histories.

George Soros' History

• His own history is quite suspect; he was 14/15 years old and survived by essentially turning into an informer.

• He himself claims that he is promoting open societies democracy etc because he experienced Jewish Holocaust personally but his own history is quite suspect.

• Why should a person who's not even in the country have the right to tell us what is or isn't correct and use enormous resources then to sway us in a particular way?

Future Reforms for India

In this section, Sanjeev Sanyal talks about infrastructure and what's going to happen in the next five to ten years for India.

Infrastructure

• In the zero to five-year horizon, we are very clear we're going to build out infrastructure.

• PM Modi is really passionate about infrastructure.

Building World-Class Infrastructure

In this section, the speaker talks about the massive infrastructure projects happening in India, including a new Metro System and airport.

Building a Massive Metro System

• Mumbai is building a massive Metro System all at once.

• The radial line from Colaba to Cuff Parade all the way to Seeps will be one of the most crowded Metro lines in the world on day one.

• A coastal road is also being built at the same time as connecting through to the mainland through the harbor link.

• A brand new airport is coming out on the other end which will be significantly larger than the existing one.

Fixing Legal and Administrative Systems

• The legal system needs fixing as there are cases that are stuck forever and ever, making it difficult for modern economy, delivery of justice, and enforcement of contracts.

• The bureaucracy and administrative system need fixing as they were set up for control during colonial times.

• Over time, powers have been taken away from bureaucracy but not reformed. It still has a control mindset instead of focusing on service delivery.

Need for Reforming Bureaucracy

In this section, the speaker talks about how bureaucracy needs reforming to focus on service delivery rather than control.

Origins of Bureaucracy

• The bureaucracy administration system came from colonial period where their main job was controlling population with licenses and permits Raj.

• After independence, agenda should shift to development growth but India decided to become a socialist economy.

• The architecture of licenses or permits meant that bureaucracy continued to have a mindset of control.

Need for Reform

• Over the last 30 years, progress has happened by withdrawing powers from bureaucracy but not reforming it.

• Bureaucracy should be designed to focus on service delivery such as making sure roads are built, water supply comes on time, health system works and government schools function properly.

Blaming the System

In this section, Sanjeev Sanyal talks about how blaming individuals for problems in the system is not productive and that the system itself needs to be changed.

The System Needs to Change

• The universe in which bureaucrats function is set up for doing something else.

• There's no point in blaming the individual bureaucrat; blame the system.

• The system in both the Judiciary and administration now needs to be changed.

• This whole thing was set up in the 19th century. We are now well into the 21st century. We need to create a system for the 21st century.

Importance of Changing Opinions

In this section, Sanjeev Sanyal emphasizes the importance of being able to change opinions and gathering enough information to shape opinions better.

Changing Opinions

• It is important to be able to change your opinion.

• It is important to be able to gather enough information in order to shape that opinion better.

• Often, people have sharp opinions, but it is important to be open-minded and willing to learn from others' experiences.

Learning from Intellectual Conversations

In this section, Sanjeev Sanyal discusses how conversations with intellectuals can help people learn and grow.

Learning from Conversations

• Podcasting allows for conversations with intellectuals that can burst bubbles and challenge assumptions.

• These conversations allow people to grow in terms of knowledge and understanding.

• It's important not only for younger audiences but also for everyone else who wants to learn more about different subjects.