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ICT ES Futures Review - January 09, 2023
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ICT ES Futures Review - January 09, 2023

Index Futures Review: Key Insights and Market Dynamics

Overview of Market Behavior

  • The speaker introduces the session, highlighting a dynamic trading day with specific focus on a bearish breaker pattern formed by high, low, and higher high candles.
  • Discussion on why no higher levels were called than 39.69; the speaker mentions being stopped out prematurely due to external distractions.

Analyzing Breakers and Imbalances

  • The speaker contrasts the identified breaker with market movements, emphasizing that half of an order block represents a mean threshold within an imbalance.
  • Observations are made regarding potential reactions to specific candle formations as indicators for future price movements.

Candle Analysis and Price Levels

  • A potential order block is identified based on candle behavior; if it fails to hold, there may be a significant drop towards sell-side liquidity.
  • The importance of closing above certain wick levels is stressed for maintaining bullish sentiment in the market.

Fair Value Gaps and Support Levels

  • The discussion shifts to fair value gaps observed in hourly charts, noting how institutional orders interact with these gaps during trading sessions.
  • The speaker critiques traditional support/resistance methods, asserting that algorithms do not respect drawn highs/lows or diagonal lines.

Liquidity Considerations and Future Expectations

  • Specific price levels are analyzed (39.69 and 39.59), indicating where inefficiencies exist in market trades leading to fair value gaps.
  • Concerns about losing fair value gaps are raised; significant liquidity below current lows could lead to further downward movement if breached.

Utilizing Twitter for Real-Time Updates

Trading Insights and Market Analysis

Real-Time Alerts and Engagement

  • The speaker emphasizes the use of Twitter for real-time alerts during trading sessions, particularly between 8:30 AM and 10:00 AM, to keep followers informed.
  • Acknowledges potential criticism from followers regarding tweet frequency; encourages those who are unhappy to unsubscribe rather than complain.
  • Highlights the importance of providing free time and insights to followers, expressing a willingness to block disrespectful individuals.

Market Dynamics and Fair Value Gaps

  • Discusses the identification of an hourly fair value gap and daily volume imbalance as key areas for market objectives, noting that these were reached last week.
  • Clarifies the measurement process for determining levels within the fair value gap on hourly charts, emphasizing accuracy in trading decisions.

Market Behavior Observations

  • Describes market behavior around lunchtime with reversals noted at specific price levels, indicating a typical pattern observed during trading hours.
  • Suggests that a significant high may have already been established for the week based on current market movements.

Chart Analysis Techniques

  • Transitioning into more detailed chart analysis, focusing on sell-side dynamics below relative equal lows as markets drop before opening.
  • Mentions using one-minute and five-minute charts to identify breakpoints in market behavior leading up to significant trades.

Trading Strategy Adjustments

  • Advises patience in observing market developments without rushing into trades; highlights a breaker setup on shorter time frames as critical for decision-making.
  • Reflects on challenges faced while toggling between different chart types (ES vs. US 500), which led to some confusion during live analysis.

Key Takeaways from Market Movements

  • Notes an error made when interpreting data across different charts but emphasizes learning from such experiences in future analyses.

Market Analysis and Trading Insights

Overview of Market Movements

  • The analysis begins with a focus on the one-minute chart, highlighting sell-side liquidity below a certain level. The market initially dips but finds support at an order block around the 8 o'clock candle.
  • A rally is anticipated to reach a short-term high, resulting in a gain of approximately 10 to 12 handles, which is considered a standard setup for traders.

Key Trading Strategies

  • Discussion of using crossover techniques on one and five-minute charts as bullish indicators. The market wicks down at the 9:30 open, taking out sell-side liquidity before returning inside the bullish breaker.
  • A specific candle at 9:45 is noted as pivotal for potential rallies towards the target of 39.50, indicating strategic entry points based on price action.

Learning Curve and Engagement

  • Emphasis on patience and repetition in learning trading strategies; understanding will develop over time with consistent practice.
  • The speaker plans to engage viewers through live annotations in February to enhance real-time learning experiences.

Trade Execution and Ethics

  • Transparency in trade execution is stressed; tweets are made prior to trades to avoid accusations of unethical practices like "pumping and dumping."
  • Timing discrepancies between tweeting about trades and actual execution are acknowledged, ensuring followers understand that entries may vary slightly from ideal positions.

Market Dynamics and Structure

  • Clarification that individual traders cannot significantly influence market movements; skepticism towards claims that social media following can manipulate prices.
  • Insight into algorithmic trading patterns reveals familiarity with market structures that repeat over time, allowing for predictive insights into price movements.

Final Observations on Market Behavior

  • After executing trades with stop-loss orders set just below key levels, observations indicate significant upward movement followed by structural shifts leading to sell-offs.

Understanding Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

Directional Bias and Liquidity Draws

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding directional bias to anticipate liquidity draws, specifically targeting a higher level indicated in a tweet.
  • Unlike retail traders, the speaker prefers to trade within consolidation zones rather than waiting for breakouts, allowing for more strategic positioning.

Fair Value Gaps and Breakers

  • Discussion on fair value gaps within larger five-minute breakers highlights key trading opportunities; bullish sentiment is reinforced by specific candle patterns.
  • The speaker describes a strong algorithmic entry pattern as "a unicorn," indicating its rarity and effectiveness when combined with market liquidity analysis.

Risk Management and Market Expectations

  • A stop-loss strategy is mentioned, showcasing the balance between risk management and potential gains as the market rallies towards expected targets.
  • The speaker outlines a bearish bias for the week unless certain price levels are breached, indicating a cautious approach to market fluctuations.

Focused Analysis on Specific Markets

  • The complexity of analyzing multiple markets leads to disorientation; thus, the focus will be narrowed down to one market at a time during mentorship sessions.
  • Acknowledgment of personal limitations in trading suggests that maintaining focus on one market can enhance performance without diluting attention.

CFD vs. Futures Market Insights

  • Differences between CFD prices and futures contracts are discussed; discrepancies may arise due to varying liquidity levels affecting precision in trading strategies.
  • The speaker shares insights from Twitter regarding hourly fair value gaps, emphasizing how expectations can differ significantly between CFDs and futures contracts.

Precision in Trading Strategies

  • An expectation for upward movement into hourly fair value gaps is expressed; however, actual movements deviated from predictions leading to adjustments in strategy.

Investing in Futures: A Path to Success?

The Importance of Live Data for Trading

  • The speaker emphasizes the necessity of investing in live data for ES and NQ Futures markets, stating that it is crucial for effective trading and learning.
  • For those outside the U.S. using MT4 brokers, the speaker notes that while strategies will still apply, levels may differ due to data discrepancies.
  • The speaker highlights that real-time data is essential; without it, traders may experience delays leading to frustration when charts do not align.

Overcoming Challenges in Trading

  • The speaker acknowledges that many Forex traders are accustomed to free real-time charts but warns that Forex may not always be a viable market option.
  • He introduces a student who has excelled under his mentorship, emphasizing that he does not provide financial incentives or partnerships with students.

Student Success Stories

  • Many students prefer to remain low-profile due to the polarizing nature of the industry and potential backlash from critics.
  • The competitive landscape is described as "cutthroat," where misinformation can spread easily about individuals in trading.

Recognition of Achievements

  • One standout student managed to withdraw over $250,000 through various prop firms without direct coaching on specific trades.
  • This student is noted as the highest earner among funded account traders within the speaker's network, showcasing significant success.

Building a Future in Trading

  • While many students have achieved substantial earnings (e.g., six figures), this particular student's achievements are highlighted as exceptional.
  • The speaker expresses pride in this student's accomplishments despite external negativity and challenges faced along their journey.
  • Emphasizing authenticity, he reassures listeners that following his guidance can lead them away from misleading practices prevalent in retail trading.

Social Media Presence and Future Potential

  • The successful student is encouraged to grow his social media presence as he continues achieving consistent results.

Insights on Funded Accounts and Personal Growth

Overview of Funded Accounts

  • The speaker discusses the concept of funded accounts, expressing a lack of personal experience but acknowledging their significance in trading.
  • A tweet showcasing various payouts from a young trader's journey is highlighted, emphasizing the impressive nature of these achievements.

Inspiration from Success Stories

  • The speaker reflects on their humble beginnings and finds inspiration in the success of younger traders who have achieved significant returns.
  • They note that critics may not appreciate these successes, as they cannot undermine genuine results produced by dedicated individuals.

Evidence of Real Success

  • The speaker emphasizes the importance of tangible evidence showing that many people worldwide are successfully applying learned strategies to generate income.
  • They express a desire for all students to share their success stories publicly, despite potential negativity from social media.

Financial Impact and Accessibility

  • A hypothetical scenario is presented regarding how $250,000 could change an individual's life, regardless of age or background.
  • The speaker encourages viewers to engage with educational content without financial barriers, stressing hard work and patience as keys to success.

Critique of Competitors and Market Misunderstandings

  • The speaker critiques competitors who mismanage trades due to a lack of understanding about proper trading practices like stop losses.
  • They clarify that certain popular trading patterns are not algorithmic despite claims otherwise, reinforcing the need for sound trading principles.

Mentorship Reflection

  • The speaker acknowledges their minor role in students' successes while celebrating their accomplishments as earned through hard work.
  • A specific young trader's story is mentioned, highlighting family expectations versus pursuing alternative paths like trading.

Encouragement for Future Success

Playlists: 2023 ICT Mentorship
Video description

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.