🎙 Честное слово с Русланом Левиевым

Introduction to the Discussion on Civilian Casualties

Overview of the Program

• The host, Alexander Makashenyts, introduces the program "Honest Word" and encourages viewers to engage through likes and comments.

• He mentions that today's discussion will focus on significant material prepared by the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT).

Guest Introduction

• Ruslan Liviv from CIT is introduced as a military analyst. He has prepared an extensive report regarding the war's impact on civilian casualties.

Key Findings from CIT's Report

Civilian Casualty Statistics for 2025

• The report states that 2025 was the deadliest year for civilians since the full-scale war began in 2022, with 2,919 deaths and 17,775 injuries reported. This marks a 12% increase in fatalities and over a 25% rise in injuries compared to 2024.

Factors Contributing to Increased Casualties

• A notable factor behind these statistics is the widespread use of drones as a new type of weaponry, which are considered high-precision tools capable of targeting specific areas effectively.

Analysis of Drone Warfare Impact

Comparison with Other Weapons

• Despite drones being classified as precise weapons, they have resulted in more civilian casualties than all other types of weaponry combined throughout 2025. This includes bombs, missiles, and artillery fire.

Frequency of Drone Attacks

• Drones have been used extensively against civilian targets rather than just military fronts since late 2024, leading to increased casualty rates among non-combatants. The normalization of drone strikes has contributed significantly to this trend.

Comparative Analysis of Civilian Losses

Trends in Civilian Death Rates

• In territories controlled by Russian authorities and within Russia itself, there was a reported decrease (6%) in civilian casualties compared to previous years; however, Ukrainian-controlled areas saw a staggering increase (35%) in civilian deaths and injuries during the same period.

Implications for War Dynamics

• These findings highlight an escalation in violence against civilians amid ongoing discussions about peace negotiations and claims that warfare is becoming less intense despite rising casualty figures among civilians in Ukraine. This contradiction raises critical questions about the nature of current military strategies employed by both sides involved in the conflict.

Analysis of Drone Warfare and Casualty Statistics

Effectiveness of Drones in Modern Warfare

• The discussion begins with a reflection on the effectiveness of drones, particularly in the context of warfare since 2022.

• A report from the American Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that Russia and Ukraine have collectively lost nearly 2 million people in the conflict, sparking debate over casualty figures.

• Critics, including journalists from Mediazona, argue that outdated coefficients were used to calculate casualties, which may not accurately reflect current realities due to drone warfare's impact.

Issues with Casualty Reporting

• The report inaccurately combines military fatalities with injury statistics; it counts injuries as cases rather than individuals affected.

• Historical data suggests that wounded soldiers are less likely to survive compared to those in modern armies like the U.S. due to differences in medical evacuation practices.

Challenges in Evacuating Wounded Soldiers

• The proliferation of drones complicates evacuation efforts; armored vehicles cannot approach front lines without being targeted by drones.

• Current methods for evacuating injured soldiers include carrying them manually or using small ground drones, which both sides employ.

Impact on Survival Rates

• Many wounded soldiers are left on the battlefield until conditions allow for safe evacuation due to drone threats.

• An example is given involving a special forces operation where a soldier was unable to be evacuated promptly after being injured because of ongoing drone attacks.

Changes in Casualty Ratios

• The inability to provide timely medical assistance leads to higher fatality rates among wounded soldiers; thus, fewer survivors per death alters traditional casualty ratios.

• This shift emphasizes the critical importance of immediate medical care within the first hour post-injury—often referred to as "the golden hour."

Trends in Civilian Infrastructure Attacks

Increasing Intensity of Attacks

• Despite ongoing negotiations for peace, attacks on civilian infrastructure have intensified throughout 2025, reaching unprecedented levels according to CIT observations.

Ukrainian Response Strategy

• Ukraine has begun retaliatory strikes against Russian energy facilities; there is speculation about whether this will reduce overall attack intensity or exacerbate it further.

Analysis of Deterrence and Military Actions in Context

The Effectiveness of Deterrence

• The speaker argues that deterrent measures are ineffective, particularly in the context of military actions and energy policies.

• Upcoming significant dates, such as the anniversary of the war's start on February 24, often lead to speculation about potential military escalations or ceasefires; however, historical patterns show little correlation between these dates and actual events.

• Notably, May has been observed as a month with reduced violence due to temporary ceasefire declarations by Putin during public holidays.

International Humanitarian Law's Impact

• Despite high casualty rates, international humanitarian law appears to exert some influence over Russian military conduct, albeit limited.

• The speaker references Sergey Guriev’s book "Dictators of Deception," highlighting how leaders like Putin attempt to project democratic values while engaging in aggressive actions.

Reactions to War Crimes Allegations

• There is a notable reaction from Russian authorities when allegations of war crimes arise; for instance, mentioning Bucha triggers immediate legal responses against those discussing it.

• Historical context is provided regarding Russia's use of cluster munitions in Syria and the subsequent denial from military officials despite evidence presented by investigative reports.

Media Influence on Military Accountability

• Investigative journalism plays a crucial role in exposing violations; after reporting on cluster bombs used by Russia, there was a swift denial from military leadership.

• The media's scrutiny forces Russian authorities to respond defensively even when they are not legally bound by certain international conventions.

Limitations of Retaliatory Strikes

• Retaliatory strikes do not effectively deter further aggression; instead, they may be used as justification for subsequent attacks against Ukraine.

• The cycle of retaliation illustrates that these actions do not serve as effective deterrents but rather escalate conflict dynamics.

Observations on Casualty Trends

• April emerged as one of the bloodiest months despite expectations for peace around Easter; this contradicts hopes for seasonal truces.

• A comparison reveals that while casualties decreased overall in occupied territories compared to previous years, areas under Ukrainian control saw an increase in violence.

Analysis of Military Actions and Civilian Impact in Ukraine

Initial Thoughts on Military Conduct

• The discussion begins with the complexities surrounding military actions, particularly regarding civilian casualties. The speaker suggests that initial thoughts may revolve around the effectiveness of air defense systems or potential concealment of data by Russia.

War Crimes and Accountability

• The speaker emphasizes that in any full-scale war, both sides commit war crimes, highlighting the absence of a purely "angelic" side. This acknowledgment sets the stage for analyzing how nations respond to their own military's misconduct.

• A critical point raised is the importance of accountability: whether a country punishes its military for war crimes or encourages such behavior influences future conduct in warfare.

Lack of Data and Volunteer Contributions

• There is an expressed frustration over limited access to Ukrainian judicial statistics, which hampers understanding of accountability measures within Ukraine. The reliance on volunteer efforts to document incidents over two years is noted as crucial for gathering information on attacks.

Changes in Casualty Statistics

• A notable observation is made regarding changes in casualty statistics from Ukrainian strikes, suggesting a decrease compared to previous years. This raises questions about possible shifts in military strategy or command decisions affecting engagement rules.

• In contrast, Russian strikes have reportedly increased civilian casualties significantly due to enhanced firepower capabilities, including drone usage and larger scale attacks compared to earlier periods.

Patterns of Military Behavior

• The speaker discusses evidence indicating that the Russian military not only fails to prevent war crimes but may actively encourage them, citing specific instances from Kherson where civilians were targeted deliberately using drones. This reflects a troubling trend within military operations that prioritizes aggression against civilians based on their nationality or location rather than combatant status.

• An example from social media illustrates this mentality among some Russian forces who mock civilian casualties as part of their operational narrative, further normalizing violence against non-combatants.

Command Influence on Military Actions

• It is suggested that ongoing patterns observed during 2025 indicate systemic issues rather than isolated incidents; even with troop rotations, aggressive targeting strategies persisted without intervention from higher command levels. This implies tacit approval at strategic levels for such actions against civilians.

• Ultimately, it’s concluded that civilian harm primarily stems from military behavior itself rather than solely the weapons used; thus, command responses play a significant role in shaping these behaviors and outcomes during conflict situations.

Discussion on Modern Warfare and Civilian Impact

The Role of High-Precision Weapons

• The speaker discusses their engagement with military academies in the U.S., focusing on theories and rules of warfare, including tactics and operations.

• They highlight the emergence of high-precision weapons like drones, which were expected to reduce collateral damage but have paradoxically increased civilian casualties.

Historical Context of Warfare Agreements

• Post World War II, there was a global consensus that while wars cannot be prevented, there should be established rules to minimize civilian suffering during conflicts.

• One proposed solution was the development of high-precision weaponry aimed at reducing harm to non-combatants.

Societal Pressures on Military Conduct

• More developed democracies face societal and media pressure to utilize precise weaponry instead of indiscriminate bombing methods that harm civilians alongside targets.

Case Study: HFI R9X Missiles

• The speaker references the introduction of American HFI R9X missiles in Syria, which are designed without explosive warheads but use blades to eliminate targets precisely.

• This technology allows for targeted strikes even in populated areas, theoretically minimizing civilian casualties.

Effectiveness vs. Human Factors in Warfare

• Despite advancements in precision weaponry, the effectiveness is undermined if operators disregard civilian safety; human intent plays a crucial role in outcomes.

• The discussion emphasizes that even advanced technologies do not guarantee reduced civilian deaths if those controlling them lack concern for non-combatants.

Russian Military Practices and Civilian Casualties

• Russia's efforts to enhance bomb accuracy have not led to fewer civilian deaths; evidence suggests systematic targeting practices rather than technical failures.

Systematic Targeting Evidence

• Repeated instances where Russian missiles hit residential buildings indicate a pattern suggesting intentionality rather than mere error or malfunction.

Conclusion on Weapon Precision vs. Command Intentions

• Ultimately, the key takeaway is that the number of civilian casualties is more influenced by military command decisions than by the precision capabilities of weapons themselves.

Impact of Donald Trump on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Trump's Influence on Negotiations

• The discussion highlights a perceived positive influence of Donald Trump in negotiations, suggesting that his involvement may lead to compromises from Putin, such as temporary ceasefires.

• Despite some temporary reductions in violence, 2025 is noted as one of the deadliest years since 2022, raising questions about Trump's actual impact on the conflict.

Complexity of Trump's Role

• The speaker acknowledges that evaluating Trump's influence is complex; while he may appear to encourage peace efforts, it also serves Putin's narrative as a democratic leader.

• Putin's attempts to project himself as a peacemaker are seen as strategic moves to gain favor with Trump and showcase his supposed commitment to democracy.

Ceasefires and Their Limitations

• Temporary ceasefires declared by Putin often fall short; for instance, a promised week-long truce lasted only three days, indicating inconsistencies in commitments.

• While there are moments of reduced aggression due to Trump's influence, these are juxtaposed against an overall prolongation of the war.

Economic Pressures and War Duration

• The U.S. has indicated it will no longer provide free support to Ukraine, which could embolden Putin to continue military actions without fear of immediate repercussions.

• Although economic sanctions under Trump have impacted Russian oil revenues significantly, their effects on the war's progression remain unclear and slow.

Regional Impacts: Belgorod Oblast

• The Belgorod region is highlighted as particularly affected due to its proximity to active combat zones; this geographical factor makes it vulnerable to attacks.

• There is a lack of significant resources allocated by the Kremlin for protecting Belgorod despite its strategic importance and ongoing threats from Ukraine.

Issues in Air Defense and Civilian Support

Lack of Resources for Air Defense

• There is a notable absence of additional resources allocated for air defense, disaster recovery, and the relocation of people from high-risk areas.

• Residents from border towns like Shebekino and Grayvaran have expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of support after temporarily relocating to safer areas.

Challenges Faced by Displaced Residents

• Displaced individuals report no financial assistance or compensation for their temporary relocation due to conflict, leaving them vulnerable upon return to dangerous regions.

• Young conscripts are being sent to the front lines, leading to casualties among those who are not professional soldiers.

Media Coverage and Public Awareness

• The deaths of young conscripts often go unnoticed in federal media, contributing to a lack of awareness about the ongoing risks faced by these individuals.

• There has been insufficient protective measures implemented for energy infrastructure in Belgorod as winter approaches, contrasting with efforts seen in Ukraine.

Inadequate Protection Measures

• Unlike Ukraine's proactive measures (e.g., sandbags around transformers), Belgorod lacks similar defenses despite clear threats.

• Local officials have failed to implement basic safety practices even after public outcry regarding unprotected civilian areas.

Propaganda vs. Reality: The Narrative on Donbas

Examination of Propaganda Claims

• The narrative that Russia is protecting the people of Donbas is frequently propagated but does not align with actual statistics regarding civilian casualties before and after February 2022.

Civilian Casualties Before and After Conflict Escalation

• Historical data shows a significant increase in civilian casualties post-February 2022 compared to earlier years when conflicts were less intense.

Current Conditions in Occupied Territories

• Many residents may be unaware of current issues such as energy shortages in occupied territories like Donetsk due to neglect from both local authorities and Kremlin interests.

Indifference Towards Occupied Regions

• The plight of civilians in occupied areas receives little attention; they face severe hardships without adequate support or media coverage.

Winter Challenges for Civilians

• Reports indicate that civilians continue to endure harsh conditions during winter months without heating or water supply, highlighting ongoing humanitarian crises.

Discussion on Civilian Casualties and Military Communication

Overview of Civilian Impact in Occupied Territories

• The speaker highlights the significant civilian casualties and damages in the Donetsk region, noting it has the highest losses among occupied territories.

Questions on Military Support and Communication

• A humorous remark is made about the Ukrainian army having two allies: Elon Musk and Roskomnadzor, leading to a discussion about military communication challenges.

Telegram Blockage Commentary

• Sergey Mironov's comments reflect frustration over potential Telegram blockage, questioning its impact on Russian military operations.

Anticipated Effects of Communication Disruptions

• The speaker expresses skepticism regarding any major noticeable effects from communication disruptions, particularly in specialized military contexts.

Current Ukrainian Counterattacks

• Discussion shifts to recent Ukrainian counterattacks near Zaporizhzhia, with specific locations mentioned where these actions are taking place.

Analysis of Starlink Terminals and Military Operations

Connection Between Starlink Blockage and Military Actions

• The speaker notes that recent Ukrainian attacks coincide with SpaceX's decision to block Russian Starlink terminals, suggesting an attempt to exploit this situation for tactical advantage.

Reality of Communication Losses

• Despite claims of lost communication due to Starlink blockage, evidence suggests that Russian forces maintain operational awareness through other means.

Observations on Tactical Awareness

• Reports indicate that Russian operators are still able to detect movements of Ukrainian forces despite alleged communication issues, undermining claims of chaos within their ranks.

Challenges Faced by Russian Forces

Alternative Communication Methods

• While alternative methods exist for maintaining communication among troops, they are not as effective as Starlink terminals.

Frustration Among Troops

• Soldiers express frustration over disrupted communications due to Telegram restrictions but do not face complete isolation from command structures.

Speculation on Assassination Attempts

Inquiry into Recent Assassination Attempt

• The final question addresses an assassination attempt on General-Lieutenant Vladimir Alexeev; speculation leans towards a possible Ukrainian operation based on historical patterns observed during the conflict.

Discussion on Recent Violent Incidents

Overview of Violence Related to War

• The speaker notes a significant number of violent incidents, including explosions and murders linked to the war, occurring in Moscow and other cities, as well as occupied territories. These events are described as regular occurrences.

• The speaker expresses a belief that these incidents may be operations conducted by Ukrainian special services, citing existing practices as a basis for this assumption.

Conclusion of the Discussion

• The conversation concludes with gratitude towards Ruslan Leviev, a military analyst who participated in the discussion.

Additional Resources and Support

• Viewers are encouraged to check out an important article discussed during the broadcast, which is now included in the description for further reading.

• The host reminds viewers to support the channel through likes and comments while also mentioning financial support options available in the video description.

• Acknowledgment is given to supporters whose names appear on a scrolling banner during the broadcast, expressing appreciation for their contributions.