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ICT 2024 Mentorship \ Market Review \ October 17, 2024
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ICT 2024 Mentorship \ Market Review \ October 17, 2024

Introduction to Live Streaming

Transition from Video to Live Stream

  • The speaker initially planned to record a video for YouTube but opted for a live stream due to time constraints related to editing and uploading.
  • Emphasizes the raw and unedited nature of live streaming, accepting potential mistakes or interruptions during the session.

Daily Candlestick Analysis

Morning Session Insights

  • Introduced a new PD (Price Delivery) concept during the morning session, focusing on bullish bias in market analysis.
  • Discussed extending the first fair value gap of the week through Friday, highlighting its importance in trading strategies.

Teaching Methodology and Criticism

Engagement with Students

  • The speaker reflects on their teaching style, emphasizing that students must be attentive to grasp complex concepts effectively.
  • Addresses criticism regarding content delivery pace; mentions concerns about plagiarism by others who misinterpret his teachings.

Intellectual Property Concerns

Protecting Original Concepts

  • Expresses frustration over individuals plagiarizing his work without understanding it, leading to misinformation among learners.
  • Clarifies that his upcoming books are intended for proper dissemination of knowledge rather than profit-making.

Advanced Trading Concepts

Fair Value Gaps and Market Dynamics

  • Introduces advanced concepts like using wicks above/below candlesticks as indicators of market inefficiencies.
  • Explains how fair value gaps can invert based on market dynamics, stressing the need for adaptability in trading strategies.

Conclusion on Copyright Issues

Legal Actions Against Plagiarism

  • Concludes with a warning against unauthorized use of his materials, indicating ongoing legal actions against copyright infringement.

Understanding Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

Introduction to Content Delivery

  • The speaker discusses the strategy of gradually revealing content during live streams, which allows for real-time engagement with market activity. This method ensures that insights are shared in front of a large audience, enhancing credibility and interaction.

Utilizing Candlestick Wicks in Trading

  • A candlestick's wick can serve as a critical tool for managing trades, including setting stop losses or profit targets. Understanding market conditions is essential for effectively using this technique.

Importance of Market Structure

  • The current market structure significantly influences trading decisions. Traders must analyze various parameters to determine potential price movements and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Introducing the "Gallow" Concept

  • The speaker introduces a specific price point termed "the Gallow," which can be utilized multiple times in trading scenarios, either as an inversion level or reclaimed level based on market behavior. This concept is crucial for understanding price dynamics in trading contexts.

Fair Value Gaps and Market Expectations

  • When expecting bearish trends, traders should look for fair value gaps where prices may retrace before moving lower. If these gaps are violated, it indicates a shift in market dynamics that could lead to bullish opportunities instead. Understanding these shifts is vital for effective trading strategies.

Distinguishing Between Bias and Narrative

  • The speaker emphasizes the difference between bias (directional expectation) and narrative (how the market will behave). Developing a comprehensive narrative requires deep analysis beyond simple indicators or tools; it's about understanding complex market interactions over time.

Challenges of Independent Thinking in Trading

  • Many traders struggle with independent thought due to reliance on simplified methods or tools that do not encourage critical thinking. Building skills to analyze markets independently is essential for achieving precision in trading outcomes.

Advanced Concepts Introduced During Live Streams

Editing Challenges During Live Streams

Natural Editing Tendencies

  • The speaker discusses their instinct to edit while speaking, using a control key to mark points for later editing. This habit is challenging during live streams.

Focus Issues in Live Streaming

  • The speaker expresses discomfort with live streaming due to difficulty maintaining focus and managing multiple ideas simultaneously.

Understanding Trading Charts

Naked Chart Analysis

  • The speaker presents a naked one-minute trading hours chart, emphasizing the importance of marking content to prevent impersonation on social media.

Importance of Time Settings

  • It’s crucial to set charts to New York time for accurate analysis, particularly noting the previous day's settlement price at 4:14 PM Eastern Time.

Gap Analysis in Trading

Recording Key Prices

  • After noting the settlement price, the speaker waits for the first print at 9:30 AM, which indicates market opening conditions.

Identifying Premium Gaps

  • Upon observing an opening price higher than the previous settlement, it is classified as a premium gap. This prompts recording of specific prices in notepad.

Opening Range Gap Dynamics

Characteristics of Opening Range Gaps

  • The previous day’s settlement price becomes significant as it transforms into the low of the opening range gap, influencing trading strategies.

Encouragement for Independent Learning

  • Viewers are urged to engage with their own charts rather than relying solely on provided examples, promoting independent learning and skill development.

Market Behavior Expectations

Anticipating Market Movements

  • The speaker expects bearish bias during initial trading after a higher gap opening and emphasizes that significant gaps (75 handles or more) can lead to profitable trades.

Probability of Gap Filling

  • While gaps may not always fill completely, there is a high probability that half will be filled within the first 30 minutes post-opening.

Navigating Market Uncertainties

Analyzing Price Movement

  • Observations about potential market movements are shared; understanding these dynamics helps traders prepare for various scenarios before market opens.

Addressing Viewer Criticism

Understanding Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

The Neo-Y Mindset and Price Levels

  • The speaker critiques the "Neo-Y mindset," suggesting it involves throwing ideas at the market to see what works, while emphasizing a more analytical approach.
  • He stresses the importance of establishing foundational concepts ("tent posts") for understanding market behavior, indicating that viewers should be open to learning rather than debunking his methods.

Data Analysis and Historical Context

  • The speaker invites scrutiny of his claims, particularly regarding a 70% success rate in gap filling, backed by 40 years of data. He argues against relying on limited data samples.
  • He highlights that many who challenge his assertions do so with insufficient data, which can lead to skewed perspectives compared to his extensive experience.

Market Predictions and Gap Analysis

  • The speaker expresses a bullish outlook but warns about potential price movements if the market opens below a specific level (600). He outlines possible scenarios for price action based on this opening.
  • He explains why failing to close gaps can indicate underlying strength in the market, contrasting this with scenarios where gaps are fully closed.

Framing Trade Ideas

  • By categorizing gaps into quadrants (upper, midpoint, lower), traders can better assess market sentiment and make informed decisions about future price movements.
  • The speaker encourages viewers to revisit previous live streams for context before proceeding with new information presented in this session.

Teaching Philosophy and Learning Approach

  • Emphasizing the importance of foundational knowledge, he urges viewers to engage deeply with content rather than passively consuming it.
Channel: The Inner Circle Trader
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.