DIRECTO. LA FED RECORTARÁ 25 PUNTOS BÁSICOS. PETROLEO DA TREGUA. ITURRALDE MENDEZ

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike and Market Reactions

Overview of the Fed's Decision

• The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, setting rates between 3.75% and 4%, marking the first increase in three years.

• A significant majority (16 out of 18 members) of the Fed anticipates further rate hikes in 2026, indicating a potential for continued increases.

Market Behavior Post-Hike

• Analysts expected a more substantial hike; a 50 basis point increase was deemed more appropriate given current market conditions.

• Concerns arise that maintaining low interest rates could lead to long-term inflation issues.

Future Projections

• Another rate hike is anticipated post-midterm elections, as high rates before elections could negatively impact market performance.

Current Market Performance

European Markets

• The Ibex 35 increased by 0.41%, closing at 19,635; other indices like DAX and FTSE also showed positive movement.

U.S. Market Trends

• High volatility is noted in U.S. markets with mixed performances: Dow Jones down slightly while Nasdaq shows resilience due to semiconductor stocks.

Currency and Commodity Updates

Currency Fluctuations

• The euro-dollar exchange rate fell by half a percentage point, while Bitcoin remained stable around $75,700.

Commodity Prices

• Oil prices dropped by 3% to $102.40; gold saw a minor decrease of 0.20%.

Sentiment Analysis on AI and Market Dynamics

Investor Sentiment Shifts

• There’s been a notable shift from optimism about AI to concerns over its limitations, impacting market sentiment negatively.

Potential for Market Recovery

• Despite reaching bearish targets without strong negative sentiment, any recovery may be limited due to lack of panic selling.

Technical Analysis of Indices

Index Movements

• The Ibex is experiencing orderly declines with clear targets around the support levels established previously.

Dow Jones Observations

• The Dow Jones has seen more significant corrections but remains within technical boundaries without alarming movements.

Insights on Commodities and Stocks

Oil Price Predictions

• Analysts predict oil may form a ceiling soon; volatility suggests potential short positions might be wise as prices approach $110.

Precious Metals Outlook

• Gold is expected to continue its downward trend despite minor fluctuations caused by interest rate changes.

Stock Performance Highlights

Spanish Stocks

• Companies like Santander are showing lateral movements; Iberdrola appears poised for growth after recent price corrections.

Notable Performers

• Iberdrola: Strong rebound signals potential upward momentum.

• Repsol: Nearing previous highs amidst fluctuating oil prices.

U.S. Tech Sector Developments

Key Players in Technology

• Apple: Continues strong performance near all-time highs despite market fluctuations.

• AMD: Shows promise for future gains despite recent downturn trends in tech stocks.

Emerging Opportunities

• Arista Networks: Breaking through resistance levels indicates bullish potential moving forward.

• Intel & Super Microcomputer: Both companies are gaining traction with notable daily increases in stock value.