TTP Market Review Including Time Based Liquidity, Intermarket Relationship & Swing Formations

Weekly Review: June 16, 2024

Overview of the Week

• The speaker welcomes everyone to the weekly review and highlights a phenomenal week in price movements following CPI and FC.

• Emphasizes the importance of taking notes as many significant topics will be discussed.

Economic Calendar Insights

• Monday and Tuesday feature high-impact news at 8:30 a.m., with additional medium impact news on Tuesday at 9:15 a.m.

• Wednesday is noted as a bank holiday for the Euro, leading to no trading activity from the speaker's perspective.

• Thursday has high-impact GBP news at 7:00 a.m. coinciding with the New York session, indicating potential volatility.

• Friday presents multiple high-impact news events for both GBP and Euro, requiring caution due to numerous market influences.

Market Analysis

• The daily chart shows an explosive upward movement for the Euro, which aligns with previous anticipations of forming a low in this area.

• Discussion on transitioning from a sell program to a buy program; liquidity above recent highs indicates bullish sentiment.

Key Levels and Trading Strategy

• Importance of not trading below April lows is emphasized; this level serves as critical support for bullish scenarios.

• Clarifies that invalidation occurs if prices close below specific levels set by prior candles that established imbalances.

Chart Annotations Explained

• The speaker discusses how April's price action sets up current market conditions; May’s candle closing below April’s high signals bearish pressure.

• Highlights logical levels annotated on charts that may seem complex but are crucial for understanding market dynamics.

Market Manipulation and Order Flow Analysis

Understanding Market Dynamics

• The market experiences a high followed by lower trading, leading to consolidation until June. A significant drop occurs within the price range of a previous consolidation block (CB).

• Three consecutive down close candles indicate manipulation towards the downside, as the market fails to maintain levels below a key bullish candle (BC).

• This manipulation serves two purposes: it eliminates sell equity resting below the low and traps short positions from retail traders who entered on breakouts.

Liquidity Engineering

• Short sellers place stop losses above recent highs, creating opportunities for buyers at discounted prices. This dynamic illustrates how liquidity is engineered across various time frames.

• The importance of maintaining specific lows is emphasized, particularly in relation to Euro and GBP pairs that traded above their April highs while respecting key lows.

Time-Based Liquidity Signals

• Price patterns are not merely observed; attention must be paid to when these highs or lows form, as time-based liquidity significantly influences order flow direction.

• The failure to take out certain lows indicates bearish manipulation, while other pairs reaching new highs signal potential bullish order flow.

Confirmation of Bullish Order Flow

• Confirmation of bullish order flow comes with significant repricing during Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), where price action expands above previous candle highs.

• A market structure shift pattern emerges with a bullish breaker formed after retracing into a deep discount following three down close candles.

Anticipating Future Price Movements

• If price displaces above the identified up close candle and holds as support, it signals potential upward movement in line with market maker buy models.

• Observing how price interacts with this up close candle will guide expectations for future movements; minimal retracements are anticipated if bullish conditions hold true.

• Recent retracement into deeper discounts highlights news-driven manipulations that later reversed towards higher pricing trends in anticipation of continued upward momentum.

Key Levels and Market Sentiment

• Current analysis suggests an upward trajectory due to reaching critical points of interest without breaching prior month lows, indicating strong underlying sentiment for higher prices ahead.

Understanding Market Dynamics Through Time Cycles

Bullish Breakers and Price Targets

• The discussion begins with the concept of a bullish breaker, indicating that if the price closes below a certain candle, it suggests a low-risk buying opportunity is not present.

• The speaker emphasizes using time-based equity to navigate higher time frames, specifically targeting previous month's highs from April and May.

Time Cycles in Market Analysis

• A month is defined as a time cycle; current analysis relies on previous month's delivery data to predict future market behavior.

• The importance of monitoring monthly high and low prices is highlighted for anticipating market movements effectively.

Fractal Analysis and PXH/PXL Theory

• The speaker explains how fractal analysis can be applied within daily cycles, allowing traders to focus on various time windows for better insights.

• Emphasis is placed on the significance of PXH (Previous High) and PXL (Previous Low) theory in refining personal market analysis.

Market Behavior Observations

• On the hourly chart, trading activity above Monday's high indicates bullish sentiment after initial consolidation during Asian sessions.

• Signs of weakness are noted when the market fails to manipulate above established highs, leading to potential bearish signals.

Impact of Economic News Releases

• High-impact news events like CPI significantly affect market pricing; immediate reactions can lead to deep discounts relative to prior ranges.

• An algorithmic reference point marked by a purple box has been consistently used over the past month, serving as both support and resistance during price fluctuations.

Institutional Trading Strategies

• Manual interventions are discussed where smart money takes advantage of deep discounts in anticipation of new range formations post-economic announcements.

Analysis of Market Trends and Order Flow

Understanding Bullish Order Flow

• The discussion begins with the importance of bullish order flow in determining potential price movements towards higher targets, specifically referencing the daily chart for the Euro.

• Previous month's high and low points are annotated to illustrate market behavior relative to these levels, particularly focusing on April's highs and lows.

• A distinction is made between futures charts and CFD charts, highlighting a significant correlation break at the April low for the Euro.

Market Manipulation Insights

• The speaker emphasizes patience in learning market analysis rather than seeking quick results; understanding logic behind predictions is crucial.

• Observations are made regarding how different instruments (futures vs. CFDs) react differently at key levels, indicating potential manipulation in the market.

• Notable patterns emerge where certain highs and lows remain intact across different instruments, suggesting strategic positioning by market participants.

Formation Patterns and Displacement

• The speaker notes that while the Euro took out its April high, the corresponding CFD did not, hinting at a possible high formation for Euro against a low formation for another asset.

• Confirmation of these formations relies on observing displacement through specific candlestick patterns (bullish breaker for door and bearish breaker for Euro).

Current Market Conditions

• Discussion shifts to current price action around key equity levels; monitoring whether Euro will continue to roll over or reach new lows is emphasized.

• Comparisons are drawn between Euro and GBP (GU), noting discrepancies in their respective price actions relative to previous highs/lows.

Future Projections Based on News Events

• Anticipation builds around upcoming news events affecting GBP; potential volatility could lead to significant price movements as indicated by recent trends.

• The analysis concludes with reflections on NASDAQ reaching long-term targets amidst bullish order flow observed over recent months.

Market Analysis and Price Action Insights

Understanding Price Ranges and Consolidation

• The speaker discusses the bullish sentiment in the market, referencing a specific price range from a low to a high to analyze order flow and potential price action.

• Emphasizes that consolidation typically leads to expansion; as long as prices remain above a defined low, continuation higher is anticipated.

• Highlights a significant candle formation that indicates aggressive repricing downward while maintaining bullishness as long as prices stay above certain levels.

Market Maker Models and Inverted Breakers

• Introduces the concept of an inverted breaker, which can be used similarly to an inverted gap for anticipating upward movement after completing market maker buy models.

• Describes how movements from previous highs to lows indicate completed market maker models, reinforcing bullish expectations if certain price levels are respected.

Key Price Levels and Psychological Effects

• Observes strong closures above critical price levels (e.g., 19,000), indicating bullish momentum towards targets like 19,600.

• Notes the importance of closing above significant price points during volatile weeks influenced by economic indicators (CPI, FMC).

Anticipating Market Movements Near Psychological Barriers

• Discusses the potential for markets to fall short of major psychological barriers (like 20,000 for Nasdaq), reflecting on past behaviors seen with Bitcoin near 100K.

• Suggests that traders often focus too heavily on these round numbers, which can lead to missed opportunities or premature conclusions about market direction.

Order Flow Dynamics and Trading Mindset

• The speaker emphasizes maintaining a bullish outlook on Nasdaq until clear signs of reversal appear; this involves analyzing all-time high ranges for continuation patterns.

• Illustrates how institutional order flow reacts at key candle highs, showcasing characteristics of a healthy bullish market without deep retracements into imbalances.

Analyzing Early Chart Signals

• Shifts focus to early chart analysis where signs indicated likely upward expansion following respect for previous imbalances.

• Details how specific trading sessions (e.g., Tuesday morning before CPI release) showed SMT between indices leading up to upward movement.

Caution Around Economic Events

• Warned against trading directly before major economic events like CPI due to unpredictable volatility; highlights risks associated with stop-loss placements during such times.

Market Analysis and Trading Insights

Long-term Price Targeting

• The speaker discusses targeting the 9,600 price level as a long-term goal, indicating that this level has been referenced consistently in mentorship sessions. A slight miss of this target led to a market downturn.

Market Behavior During FMC

• The market exhibited consolidation during the FMC event before manipulating downwards, followed by an upward distribution phase. This behavior aligns with typical accumulation-manipulation-distribution patterns observed in trading.

Intermarket Relationships

• An aggressive drop occurred where ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures) took out Thursday's low while NASDAQ did not, signaling a potential for bullish expansion. This divergence indicates a significant intermarket relationship that traders should monitor.

Bullish Order Flow Dynamics

• As new all-time highs were created, the speaker notes how markets can continue rising despite skepticism about further increases. Understanding range dynamics is crucial for navigating these situations effectively.

Correlation Between Indices

• The analysis highlights discrepancies between NASDAQ and ES performance over several days, emphasizing that NASDAQ was leading in bullish repricing while ES lagged behind. Recognizing these correlations is vital for informed trading decisions.

Algorithmic Reference Points

• Specific price levels like 19,600 served as algorithmic reference points for lower time frame trades. These levels acted as support or resistance based on market maker models, illustrating their importance in short-term trading strategies.

Opportunities Within Trading Days

• The speaker emphasizes that even one high-quality trade per week can yield multiple opportunities within just two trading days. This perspective counters the fear of missing out (FOMO), encouraging traders to adopt a more strategic mindset rather than impulsively entering trades.

Mindset Towards Trading Opportunities

Understanding Professional Trading Protocols

The Difference Between Retail and Professional Traders

• The speaker emphasizes that retail traders operate differently from professional traders, highlighting the importance of following established protocols rather than personal desires.

• Professionals utilize scripts or game plans consistently each week, making adjustments only when data necessitates a change.

Objective Market Analysis

• The speaker aims to provide insights into market analysis from an objective standpoint, anticipating price movements based on established patterns.

• Confirmation of anticipated market behavior is crucial; the speaker waits for signs before acting on predictions.

Key Market Observations

• The ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures) has reached a significant price level of 5,400, which was identified as a long-term target.

• A bullish order flow is noted in ES, with all discount arrays functioning as support. This indicates strong buying interest in the market.

Future Market Expectations

• The analysis suggests continued upward movement for both ES and NASDAQ unless contrary signals emerge.

• Monitoring whether the 5,400 level acts as support will be critical for future price action.

Learning and Adapting to Market Cycles

• The review aims to clarify how the speaker analyzes markets objectively and anticipates movements based on specific protocols.

• Understanding these trading protocols may initially seem complex but will become clearer over time through practice and observation of market cycles.