How accurate is the weather forecast? | Am I Normal? With Mona Chalabi
No one remembers when you're right, but no one forgets when you're wrong
This section explores the backlash faced by weather forecasters when their predictions are inaccurate and questions whether the anger towards them is justified.
Accuracy of Weather Forecasts
- People can get really annoyed when the forecast is nothing like the reality.
- In 1964, the director of the Taiwan provincial weather bureau was indicted for failing to correctly forecast a typhoon's path.
- Forecasts become more accurate as the date approaches. A seven-day advance forecast from the US National Weather Service was off by over six degrees Fahrenheit, while a one-day advance forecast was only off by about three degrees.
Limitations in Weather Prediction
- Despite advancements in modeling and technology, it may never be possible to predict weather with 100 percent accuracy due to the vast number of molecules in the atmosphere.
- Accurate predictions depend on accurate information, and as time progresses, there is a higher chance for information to change. Patience is key for better accuracy.
Accurate Predictions Depend on Accurate Information
This section discusses how accurate predictions rely on having precise and up-to-date information.
Elections as an Example
- The most accurate election polls are those conducted on election day rather than in advance.
- Knowing the future requires knowledge of all particles' positions and movements, which is practically impossible even for advanced computers.
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