Our Memory Stocks Are Up Hundreds of % (MU, SNDK, SK Hynix)
Mid-Year Portfolio Review and Performance Insights
Overview of Portfolio Performance
- The recording takes place on July 1st, marking the end of the first half of the year. A review of portfolio performance is initiated.
- Discussion includes a partnership with fiscal.ai, which provides data for their analysis and offers a discount for users.
- Key stocks in the portfolio include SanDisk, Kioxia, Skhinx, Micron, Western Digital, Seagate, NBE, and GSI Technology.
Stock Performance Highlights
- Kioxia outperformed SanDisk in stock price during the first half of 2026; momentum trading was anticipated.
- Current trends suggest continued growth in memory stocks over the next few years; no immediate changes to allocations are planned.
- Emphasis on risk management strategies as significant gains have been realized; planning for future market conditions is advised.
Analysis of Specific Stocks
- NVE Technologies shows a 70% increase year-to-date but is considered a laggard compared to others; GSI Technology only increased by about 15%.
- Potential divestment from GSI Technology due to its shift away from memory markets towards custom AI processors.
Momentum Trading Strategies
Historical Context and Current Strategy
- The speaker reflects on past momentum trades and how they influence current investment decisions.
- Different investment strategies are discussed: some investors prefer active management while others adopt a more hands-off approach.
Risks Associated with Memory Companies
- Major players in memory manufacturing include SK Hynix, Micron, Samsung, and CXMT (China); potential IPO could impact supply dynamics.
- Increased production capacity among major manufacturers may lead to lower prices if supply constraints ease.
Future Market Dynamics
Economic Implications
- Concerns about profit margins decreasing as supply increases; historical examples like Russian oil price caps illustrate market adaptability.
Domestic Manufacturing Challenges
- Chinese manufacturers face restrictions on advanced equipment purchases due to trade tensions but continue expanding domestic capabilities.
Optical Companies Portfolio Review
Performance Metrics
- Lumentum emerges as a top performer within the optical segment for the first half of 2026 based on total return rather than just stock price.
Strategic Investments
- Coherent's focus on indium phosphide manufacturing is highlighted as crucial for scaling up supply chains; Nvidia's investments reflect confidence in these companies' futures.