What are the most important moral problems of our time? | Will MacAskill
The Economic History of Human Civilization
This section introduces a graph representing the economic history of human civilization over the last 200,000 years. It highlights the lack of significant change in living conditions for the majority of human history.
Graph Representation
- A graph is shown depicting the economic history of human civilization.
- For most of human history, people lived on approximately one dollar per day with little change.
- The graph transforms after the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions.
The Scientific and Industrial Revolutions
This section discusses how the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions have transformed our ability to understand and alter the world. It emphasizes that our ethical understanding has not yet caught up with these advancements.
Ethical Understanding Lagging Behind
- The Scientific and Industrial Revolutions have revolutionized our understanding of the world and our ability to change it.
- Our ethical understanding has not kept pace with these advancements.
- An ethical revolution is needed to effectively utilize resources for global improvement.
Effective Altruism as a Solution
This section introduces effective altruism as a philosophy and research program developed to address radical changes in our world. It focuses on maximizing positive impact through evidence-based reasoning.
Philosophy of Effective Altruism
- Effective altruism responds to global challenges by using evidence and careful reasoning to determine how we can do the most good.
- It aims to answer the question: How can we maximize positive impact?
- Effective altruism encompasses various areas such as charity, career choices, political engagement, etc.
Prioritizing Global Issues
This section presents a framework for prioritizing global issues based on their size, solvability, and neglect. It highlights three moral issues that score well in this framework.
Framework for Prioritization
- The priority of a problem depends on its size, solvability, and level of neglect.
- Bigger problems offer greater potential impact if solved.
- More easily solvable problems require fewer resources to make progress.
- Neglected problems have higher potential for additional progress due to diminishing returns.
Three Moral Issues
This section focuses on three moral issues that are considered highly important based on the prioritization framework of effective altruism: global health, factory farming, and existential risks.
Global Health
- Global health is supersolvable and has shown significant progress in reducing death rates from diseases like measles, malaria, and diarrheal disease.
- Eradicating smallpox alone saved over 60 million lives.
- Saving lives through interventions like distributing bed nets can be achieved at a relatively low cost.
Factory Farming
- Factory farming is superneglected despite the immense suffering experienced by billions of animals each year.
- Improving the conditions for these animals can be done at a low cost per animal.
- Additional resources in this area could have a transformative impact.
Existential Risks
- Existential risks refer to events such as nuclear war or global pandemics that could permanently derail civilization or lead to human extinction.
- These risks are considered a high priority due to their potential catastrophic consequences.
Conclusion
Effective altruism provides a framework for prioritizing global issues based on their size, solvability, and neglect. The transcript highlights three moral issues - global health, factory farming, and existential risks - as areas that deserve significant attention. By addressing these issues effectively, we can maximize our positive impact on the world.
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This section discusses the potential consequences of not preserving the future of humanity and highlights the vast potential that humanity holds.
The Tragedy of Losing Humanity's Potential
- The deaths of all seven billion people on Earth would result in a tragedy of unimaginable size.
- In addition to the loss of lives, it would also mean curtailing humanity's future potential, which is believed to be vast.
- If the human race were to live as long as a typical mammalian species, it could last for about two million years.
- Considering that the human race has been around for about 200,000 years, it is still relatively young.
- The earth will remain habitable for 500 million years, and if humans colonize other planets, civilization could continue for billions more.
The Future Potential of Humanity
- Despite challenges faced by humanity, progress has been made over time in terms of life expectancy, poverty reduction, decriminalization of homosexuality, and democratization.
- With advancements in technology and continued progress, there is much more to gain in terms of solving current problems and achieving greater human flourishing.
- The future holds immense possibilities for further progress and accomplishments that are beyond our current imagination.
Preserving the Future
- While there are risks associated with technological advancements such as nuclear war or extreme climate change, these risks should not overshadow the importance of preserving humanity's future.
- Neglecting problems that affect future generations is common because they do not participate in markets or have a voice in decision-making today. As a result, insufficient attention and resources are allocated to these issues.
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This section emphasizes the importance of preserving the future of humanity and highlights the need for increased attention to long-term global risks.
The Importance of Preserving Humanity's Future
- Preserving the future of humanity is among the most important problems we face due to the potential value and progress that can be achieved.
- Small probabilities of catastrophic events matter greatly when there is so much at stake.
Neglecting Problems Affecting Future Generations
- Problems that impact future generations are often neglected because those individuals do not have a direct influence on current decision-making processes.
- Insufficient resources are allocated to address long-term global risks such as nuclear nonproliferation, geoengineering, and biorisks.
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This section discusses the limited amount of philanthropic funding received by certain organizations compared to the total spending on US philanthropy.
Philanthropic Funding Disparity
- All of these organizations receive only a few tens of millions of dollars of philanthropic funding every year.
- This amount is significantly smaller when compared to the total spending on US philanthropy, which amounts to 390 billion dollars.
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This section explores whether the issue at hand is solvable.
The Solvability Question
- The speaker believes that the issue is solvable.
- Individuals can contribute through their money, career choices, and political engagement.
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This section highlights different ways individuals can contribute to addressing the identified risks.
Contributions with Money
- Supporting organizations that focus on specific risks such as nuclear weapons disarmament (e.g., Nuclear Threat Initiative), pandemic prevention and mitigation (e.g., Blue Ribbon Panel), and safe AI development (e.g., Center for Human-Compatible AI).
Contributions with Political Engagement
- Voting for candidates who prioritize addressing these risks and supporting greater international cooperation.
Contributions with Career Choices
- Various roles are needed, including scientists, policymakers, organization leaders, accountants, managers, and assistants in organizations tackling these problems.
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This section acknowledges that effective altruism research is still in its early stages but emphasizes its potential impact.
Effective Altruism Research Potential
- Effective altruism research is still in its infancy, with much to learn.
- However, even with the current knowledge, focusing on big, solvable, and neglected problems can make a significant difference in the world for thousands of years to come.