Турция выбирает президента | Может ли Эрдоган проиграть (English subtitles) @Max_Katz

Turkish Presidential Elections

This transcript discusses the Turkish presidential elections and the current political situation in Turkey.

The Presidential Run

• Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his opposition Kemal Kilicdaroglu are neck and neck in the presidential run.

• Polls show Erdogan at 47% and his rival at 49%, with both candidates having a chance to clinch presidency in the first round if they get a 50%+1 vote.

Differences from Other Autocracies

• Turkey's autocracy is not all-encompassing, as it doesn't control voting from A to Z. It has some influence on electoral procedures, law enforcement, and judicial systems but lacks a unified electoral fraud framework.

• Erdogan finds support in small towns and rural communities, while major cities like Istanbul, Antalya, and Ankara are controlled by the opposition.

• Unlike other autocracies such as Russia or Belarus, Turkey's economy isn't resource-based or monopolized by the government or elites. The service sector makes up close to 53% of its GDP.

• The Turkish army is secular and Westernized, with a history of intervening in politics when religious zealots got to power. Erdogan's presidency saw a plunge in the army's influence.

Erdogan's Presidency

• Erdogan became prime minister of Turkey in 2003 when it was still a parliamentary republic. He amended the constitution in 2014 to head the newly-minted presidential republic.

• In 2018, he scrapped the position of prime minister altogether to beef up his presidential powers after adopting more constitutional amendments.

• The army staged a failed coup in 2016, leading to Erdogan initiating purges in the army and diminishing its role in the system of checks and balances.

• Erdogan's Justice and Development Party holds the majority in Turkey's unicameral parliament. It uses Islamic fundamentalism as its doctrine and is essentially a Turkish branch of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Overall, this transcript provides an overview of the current political situation in Turkey, highlighting key differences between Turkey's autocracy and other autocracies such as Russia or Belarus. It also discusses Erdogan's presidency and his efforts to consolidate power through constitutional amendments while diminishing the role of the army.

Erdogan's Ambitions and Turkish Opposition

This section discusses Erdogan's ambitions to restore the Ottoman Empire and his treatment of neighboring regions as Turkey's zone of influence. It also talks about the Turkish opposition, their place in Turkey, and their goals.

Erdogan's Ambitions

• Erdogan wants to restore the Ottoman Empire and treats neighboring regions as Turkey's zone of influence.

• He was actively involved in the Arab Spring uprisings, the Libyan Civil War, and has set up an army base in Somalia.

• In Syria, he allegedly used terrorist groups like ISIS in addition to the Turkish army. He was also assisting his family by buying stolen Syrian oil from ISIS for resale.

Turkish Opposition

• The opposition is a prime example of a lack of a single autocracy scale in Turkey. There is no pecking order where they would be sorted by some singular property like repression extent.

• Criminal prosecution for insulting the leader is typical for Oriental despotism, but even Russia never passed such laws beyond parliamentary proposition stage. However, there are plenty of Turkish citizens imprisoned who are charged for less-than-happy social media posts.

• Major cities in Turkey are controlled by Erdogan's critics, and the opposition nominated a joint presidential candidate who didn't end up behind bars together with those who tapped him to run.

Goals of United Turkish Opposition Led by Kilicdaroglu

• Reconcile with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and return nearly four million refugees to Syria within two years (refugees that Erdogan used to blackmail EU).

• Revoke presidential special powers, increase parliament role, give Central Bank its independence back.

• Promote closer ties with the West: the US and EU.

• Negotiate visa-free travel with the EU, carry out decisions of European Court of Human Rights, and free political prisoners including Kurdish politician Selahattin Demirtas.

Erdogan's Opponents and the Upcoming Turkish Election

This transcript discusses the upcoming presidential election in Turkey, focusing on the opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his chances of winning against incumbent President Erdogan. It also touches on how Erdogan has used Kurds to deflect tensions and how an earthquake in 2023 affected the election.

Erdogan's Use of Kurds

• Erdogan uses Kurds to deflect tensions.

• Using ISIS and other terror groups for his advantage in Syria, Erdogan filled his country with a bunch of armed zealots.

• Terrorist attacks in Turkey became the norm.

• And Erdogan’s norm is to blame Kurds for all of the attacks.

Opposition Candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

• Kemal Kilicdaroglu couldn’t exactly be called a friend of Kurds, either.

• He used anti-Kurdish sentiment in the past.

• Now, however, Kurdish votes might be decisive for him.

• Pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party didn’t nominate its own presidential candidate, so its followers might vote for Kılıçdaroğlu.

Nation Alliance and Kurdish Votes

• At the moment, Kılıcdaroglu is a joint candidate nominated by a union of various opposition parties called Nation Alliance or Table of Six.

• The pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party isn’t in it.

• However, since Kılıcdaroglu vows to release political prisoners — journalists, opposition, and Kurds — he could get many Kurdish nationals' votes if he wins.

Who is Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu?

• Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is a politician who addressed his voters directly using social media videos.

• He positioned himself as a friendly candidate to unite different people.

• There are a lot of people hailing the current presidential election as the last chance for change.

• Even though Kilicdaroglu’s party holds secular values, he managed to sway many Islamists to his side during the campaign.

Earthquake and Its Effect on Election

• Feb. 6, 2023, saw an event of unprecedented magnitude that rocked the chair under the Turkish “sultan” and gave the opposition a chance to win the election.

• There was a horrendous earthquake in Turkey that took more than 50,000 Turks' lives with over a million left homeless.

• Erdogan was basing his campaign on foreign policy but had to switch to internal affairs after the earthquake.

• The opposition was quick to use it, calling the current government incapable of acting during a crisis.

Erdogan's Geopolitical Strategy

• Erdogan is using geopolitics when trying to sway fence-sitting voters by using aggressive rhetoric toward NATO allies like Greece and U.S.

• Pro-Erdogan Minister of Internal Affairs Süleyman Soylu already announced that a potential win of the opposition candidate is a coup arranged by the West.

Erdogan's Populism and the Turkish Elections

This transcript discusses the upcoming Turkish elections and how President Erdogan's populist policies may impact the country's economy. It also explores the potential outcomes of the election and how they could affect Turkey's political landscape.

Erdogan's Economic Policies

• Erdogan has a history of printing more banknotes to solve monetary problems, leading to a slow-onset macroeconomic crisis.

• His promise to raise governmental employees' salaries by 45% can only be achieved by printing more money, which could lead to further devaluation of the Turkish Lira.

• Erdogan is promising voters money in exchange for their support, but fails to mention that this money will be worthless due to inflation caused by his economic policies.

The Upcoming Election

• There is a high chance that Erdogan may not be re-elected, as public surveys show a couple of points difference between him and the opposition candidate.

• The main question for the opposition is whether urban educated people living in large cities will show up at polling stations.

• Two unknown factors that could influence the results are Muharrem Ince's followers and Kurds who don't have their own presidential candidate.

Potential Outcomes

• Experts believe that no party will capture a total majority of seats in parliament, making it difficult for any party to make constitutional changes without other parties' approval.

• Even if one party manages to secure a regular majority, there is no telling how they would make a coalition work when dislike towards Erdogan is their only uniting factor.

Turkey's Potential for Change

In this section, the speaker discusses Turkey's potential for change and how social media is playing a role in shaping public opinion.

Turkey's Popularity on Twitter

• Turkey ranks 18th on the list of most populous countries.

• However, it is seventh in Twitter use.

• With the government encroaching on independent media, social media has become an important platform for progressive people to voice their opinions.

Potential for Change

• Progressive people in Turkey are tired of the "sultan" and his imperialistic ambitions.

• They have enormous potential to form an organization and bring about change.

• The main challenge is getting citizens to the polling station.

Conclusion

• The official results will be called by tomorrow, while exit poll numbers will be available earlier.

• Stay tuned for more updates.

Closing Remarks

In this section, the speaker concludes the discussion.

Final Thoughts

• See you tomorrow!