The Dark Side of Competition in AI | Liv Boeree | TED

Competition and Misaligned Incentives

This section discusses the concept of competition and how it can lead to both positive and negative outcomes. It highlights examples of healthy competition in sports and innovation, as well as negative effects such as AI beauty filters promoting body dysmorphia. The section also explores how competition in news media has led to clickbait and polarization, affecting trust and truth in journalism.

Competition: Healthy vs Unhealthy

• Healthy competition drives innovation and benefits everyone in the long run. Examples include car companies competing for safer cars and more efficient solar panels.

• Unhealthy competition can create lose-lose outcomes where everyone is worse off than before. AI beauty filters are an example, causing body dysmorphia among young people.

Competition in Social Media

• Social media platforms incentivize the use of AI beauty filters because they generate more engagement and ad revenue. Users are motivated to use them for gaining followers, but it becomes a trap with little advantage due to widespread usage.

• Influencers are stuck using these filters with downsides but no competitive advantage, resulting in a lose-lose situation.

Competition in News Media

• Increased competition between news outlets should have led to better journalism, but it has resulted in clickbait and polarization instead. Headlines triggering fear or anger go viral, leading to a race to the bottom for news outlets seeking attention amidst noise.

• Crappy incentives drive news editors into adopting clickbaity tactics used by competitors, eroding trust from the public and making it harder to discern truth from fiction. This poses a significant problem for democracy.

Misaligned Incentives: A Driving Force

• Many global issues like plastic pollution, deforestation, and greenhouse gas emissions are a result of misaligned incentives and poorly designed games. Players (individuals, companies, governments) are forced to adopt harmful strategies to avoid being outcompeted.

• The mechanism of misaligned incentives needs to be fixed as it underlies many major problems in society. It is not solely a problem of capitalism but a deeper issue related to game theory.

Recognizing the Problem

• Various terms describe the concept of misaligned incentives, but they can be abstract and clunky. A more visceral way of recognizing these issues is needed due to their interconnectedness and insidious nature.

• The story of the cult sacrificing children to the god Moloch serves as a metaphor for losing sight of the bigger picture while pursuing victory in the immediate game. It highlights how much we sacrifice in our pursuit of winning.

New Section

This section discusses the concept of sacrificing integrity and the biosphere for short-term gains, highlighting the unhealthy competition in various industries, including AI.

Sacrificing Integrity and Biosphere

• News editors are sacrificing their integrity for clicks.

• Polluters are sacrificing the biosphere for profit.

• Short-term incentives in various industries push individuals to sacrifice their future, leading to a detrimental cycle where everyone loses.

Unhealthy Competition and Moloch's Trap

• Unhealthy competition is described as Moloch's trap.

• The same mechanism is now occurring in the AI industry.

• Companies are racing to score more compute power, funding, and top talent.

• The pressure to go fast leads to sacrificing important aspects like safety testing.

CEO Dilemma

• CEOs who believe in their team's ability to safely build powerful AI face a dilemma.

• Going too slowly risks other less cautious teams deploying their systems first.

• This pushes CEOs to be more reckless themselves, despite warnings about rushed AI.

Conflicting Incentives

• Most AI companies prioritize satisfying investors' short-term incentives over benevolent missions.

• The conflict between investor satisfaction and responsible development becomes significant as AI advances.

Paradigm Shift and Reverence

• AI, especially AGI, is considered a paradigm shift comparable to agricultural or industrial revolutions.

• It deserves reverence and reflection rather than being reduced to a corporate rat race for user numbers.

Escaping Moloch's Traps

• Coordination has helped escape some of Moloch's traps before in different contexts such as saving the ozone layer or reducing nuclear weapons.

• Smart regulation may assist with AI but players within the game have the most influence.

AI Leaders and Godlike Wisdom

• AI leaders need to acknowledge the risks of their technologies and the destructive nature of current incentives.

• As their capabilities grow, they must possess godlike wisdom to wield them responsibly.

Flipping Moloch's Playbook

• Leaders should be willing to sacrifice individual success for the greater good.

• Some leading labs have taken steps in this direction but more is needed.

Turning AI Race into a Race to the Top

• Companies can compete based on security criteria and alignment research dedication.

• This would challenge Moloch's influence and prioritize responsible development.

Competition as a Tool

• Competition can be an amazing tool if used wisely.

Astronomical Stakes

• Getting AI, especially AGI, wrong could lead to unimaginable catastrophe.

• Getting it right could help escape Moloch's traps.

Don't Hate the Players, Change the Game

• The real enemy is Moloch, not individual CEOs or companies.

• Instead of hating players, focus on changing the game.