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ICT Mentorship 2023 - August 19, 2023 Weekend Commentary
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ICT Mentorship 2023 - August 19, 2023 Weekend Commentary

New Section

In this section, the speaker provides a market review and discusses their analysis based on the weekly and daily charts. They mention their neutral stance due to the lack of clear direction in the market.

Market Analysis

  • The speaker reviews the weekly chart and mentions looking for a price level above a short-term high for a potential buy side opportunity.
  • However, they express uncertainty about whether the market will continue to move up or go down to a specific level.
  • The speaker emphasizes their neutrality and acknowledges that sometimes they have to wait for more information before making predictions.
  • They mention that August is traditionally a challenging month for trading and share their approach of dialing back action during this period.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses their approach to commentaries and how they prefer having a higher timeframe perspective when predicting price movements.

Predicting Price Movements

  • The speaker explains that they like to provide commentaries where they can point out where they believe prices will go over time.
  • However, currently, they admit not having enough information to make accurate predictions due to the uncertain market conditions.
  • They mention that September, October, November, and December are usually more exciting months for trading with interesting price runs expected.

New Section

In this section, the speaker talks about their experience with trading in August and how it has influenced their approach. They also discuss key levels on the daily chart of Dollar Index.

Trading in August

  • The speaker reflects on past experiences of financial losses during August and shares that they have developed skills in managing risk during this month.
  • They highlight that August is still part of summer but anticipate more exciting times in trading starting from September onwards.

Daily Chart Analysis

  • The speaker examines the daily chart of Dollar Index and identifies a balanced price range with a small inefficiency.
  • They mention that the market's opening on Sundays is uncertain, and they do not try to predict it precisely.
  • The speaker explains their preferred scenarios for bullish or bearish movements based on gap openings and subsequent price actions.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses potential price movements based on key levels and inefficiencies on the daily chart of Dollar Index.

Key Levels and Inefficiencies

  • The speaker points out two key levels: one for discount (lower) and one for premium (higher), which could influence this week's Dollar Index movement.
  • They acknowledge that it is difficult to determine which level will be reached due to the current uncertainty in the market.

New Section

In this section, the speaker analyzes the hourly chart of Dollar Index, highlighting previous buy-side and sell-side movements.

Hourly Chart Analysis

  • The speaker observes previous buy-side movements followed by a sell-side imbalance on the hourly chart of Dollar Index.
  • They mention volume of balance areas where price reaches into them before pulling away as an important factor to consider.
  • The speaker notes that there is no clear direction yet in terms of which side (buy or sell) will dominate in future price movements.

15 Minute Time Frame Analysis

In this section, the speaker discusses the analysis of a 15-minute time frame chart and potential trading opportunities.

Analysis of Buy Side and Resistance Levels

  • The speaker identifies a breaker on the buy side in the 15-minute time frame.
  • There is a likelihood of taking out relative equal lows.
  • The speaker suggests residing and tapping one more time on the old hourly inefficiency.

Euro Dollar Weekly Chart

This section focuses on analyzing the Euro Dollar weekly chart and discussing trading strategies.

Volume and Balance Analysis

  • The speaker highlights the volume and balance on the Euro Dollar weekly chart.
  • Traded up into a level mentioned previously.
  • Bounced by side efficiency institutional article entry drill.

Importance of Complete Teachings

In this section, the speaker emphasizes the importance of complete teachings in trading concepts.

Need for Comprehensive Learning Materials

  • The speaker mentions that there are already books available on Smart Money Concepts ICT Trading ICT Concepts.
  • These books provide an introduction but not complete teachings.
  • The speaker aims to be the definitive source by putting out comprehensive books to ensure correct understanding and application of his creations.

Bearish Outlook for Euro Dollar

This section discusses a bearish outlook for Euro Dollar based on recent price movements.

Sell Side Entry Drill

  • Traded up into sell sign of balance by sound deficiency institutional overflow entry drill.
  • Expectation of breaking lower and finding strength in dollar.
  • Possibility of treating inefficiency as an inversion fair value gap at a later time.

Euro Dollar Daily Chart

This section analyzes the Euro Dollar daily chart and identifies key levels for trading decisions.

Bias Towards Sell Side

  • Traded up into the Weekly Chevy and now have a daily biaset about cell sign efficiency.
  • Close to reaching the inefficiency from the weekly chart.
  • Expecting a lot of back and forth price action in August.

Intraday Trading Challenges

This section discusses the challenges of intraday trading, particularly during the month of August.

Back and Forth Price Action

  • Intraday trading in August involves a lot of give and take with no clean price runs.
  • Holding onto an intraday trade is difficult due to back and forth price action.
  • Trailing stop losses can be tricky to manage during this period.

Future Outlook for Euro Dollar

This section focuses on future expectations for Euro Dollar based on current analysis.

Potential Break Below Relative Equal Lows

  • Anticipating a break below relative equal lows and digging into an imbalance area.
  • Uncertainty regarding how Euro Dollar will trade after reaching that level.

Hourly Chart Analysis

This section analyzes the Euro Dollar hourly chart and identifies potential buy side levels.

Consolidation Phase

  • The hourly chart shows consolidation with back and forth movements.
  • Traded into an inefficiency, broke lower, then traded back up.
  • Building buy side within the consolidation phase.

Key Resistance Level

This section highlights a key resistance level on the 15-minute time frame chart for Euro Dollar.

Importance of Resistance Level

  • Annotated resistance level at 1.0865 on the 15-minute time frame chart.
  • If bearish, it should not trade back above this level after going below it.
  • Possible scenario: breaking lower, touching resistance, then aggressive sell-off.

Analysis of Resistance and Sell Side

The speaker discusses their analysis of resistance levels and the potential for a sell-off in the market.

Analysis of Resistance Levels

  • The speaker suggests that the market may reject a certain area and treat it as resistance.
  • They anticipate a potential sell-off and expect prices to go lower with a higher dollar.
  • The speaker mentions that they share their analysis regularly, even though they don't have a hard bias yet.

Teaching Expectations Before Market Opens

  • The speaker explains how they would communicate their expectations to students before the market opens.
  • They emphasize that these expectations are hypothetical since the markets are not active on Saturdays.
  • Despite this, the speaker tries to provide their views during these teaching sessions.

Weekly Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the weekly chart for S&P Futures September contract.

Inversion and Gap on Weekly Chart

  • There is an inversion on the weekly chart with a gap.
  • The speaker believes that prices may still try to trade into that gap eventually.
  • They suggest that over the fall, there might be a reason for prices to reach lower levels.

Daily Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the daily chart for S&P Futures September contract.

Version of Fairbank and Lower Prices

  • There is a version of Fairbank on the daily chart.
  • The speaker mentions that they were looking for lower prices based on previous discussions and tweets.
  • They state that none of them were focusing on moves higher in S&P or NASDAQ; instead, they anticipated moves to the downside.

Inefficiency on Weekly Chart and Retracement

The speaker discusses an inefficiency on the weekly chart and retracement patterns.

Inefficiency on Weekly Chart

  • There is an inefficiency on the weekly chart that fell short of reaching a certain level.
  • The speaker mentions a retracement off the low formed on Friday, which aligns with their concept of TGIF (Thank God It's Friday).
  • They explain that the market generally retraces 20 to 30 percent of the weekly range on Thursday into Friday or later in the day if there is a lower low on Friday.

Hourly Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the hourly chart for S&P Futures September contract.

Inversion, Breakdown, and Gap

  • There is an inversion on the hourly chart with breakdowns and gaps.
  • The speaker believes that prices may not be done going lower yet.
  • They express their preference for seeing a gap open lower, an attempt to fill it partially, and then aggressive selling below previous lows.

Teaching Execution and Offside Trades

The speaker discusses teaching execution strategies and identifying offside trades.

Difficulties in Teaching Execution

  • The speaker mentions that Friday was a challenging day for teaching due to difficulties in pointing out things in advance.
  • They plan to cover their live trades from Friday in future teaching sessions to explain their thought process during executions.

Identifying Offside Trades

  • The speaker explains how they teach students to identify when they are offside in a trade (not likely to be profitable).
  • They emphasize the importance of recognizing clues in price action and making adjustments accordingly.

Five-Minute Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes the five-minute chart for S&P Futures September contract.

Inefficiency and Relative Equal Lows

  • There is an inefficiency on the five-minute chart, followed by relative equal lows.
  • The speaker acknowledges that it may have been difficult to anticipate a swipe of those lows due to the significant downward movement earlier in the week.
  • They mention a shift in the market after making the low of the week on Friday.

The transcript provided does not specify the language used. Therefore, I have assumed it to be English based on the content.

New Section

The speaker discusses the concept of fair value and its relationship to market structure. They explain how price movements above old lows can indicate a shift in market structure and the presence of inefficiencies. The speaker also mentions TGIF (Thank God it's Friday) as a retracement pattern on the weekly range.

Fair Value and Market Structure

  • Fair value is being selected based on an old low where cell side resided.
  • Price trading back above an old area where cell side existed indicates a shift in market structure.
  • Inefficiencies are laid over top of these areas, creating opportunities for price movements.
  • TGIF (Thank God it's Friday) is a retracement pattern on the weekly range.

New Section

The speaker explains how price movements respect certain levels defined by gaps, wicks, and candle bodies. They discuss how market rallies can find support at down close candles or order blocks, leading to buy-side opportunities.

Price Movements and Candle Analysis

  • Price movements respect gaps and wicks outside the line defined by the low of a candle.
  • Candle bodies indicate the narrative and real storyline of price movement.
  • Market rallies can find support at down close candles or order blocks.
  • Buy-side opportunities may arise from these price movements.

New Section

The speaker discusses normal deviations in price action and emphasizes the importance of analyzing candle bodies to understand the narrative. They mention that market rallies may dig into inefficiencies.

Normal Deviations in Price Action

  • Small deviations outside what is expected are considered normal, such as a mohawk pattern.
  • Analyzing candle bodies helps determine the narrative and future price movements.
  • Market rallies may dig into inefficiencies during their upward movement.

New Section

The speaker introduces the NASDAQ weekly chart and explains the concept of a bearish breaker. They discuss how price retraces a certain percentage of its range and mention their focus on digging down into a deep discount buy-side imbalance.

NASDAQ Weekly Chart and Bearish Breaker

  • The NASDAQ weekly chart shows a bearish breaker, indicated by a down close candle.
  • Price trades up slightly outside the range defined by the bearish breaker candle's high.
  • A significant movement to the downside follows, with price retracing 20 to 30 percent of its range.
  • The focus is on digging down into a deep discount buy-side imbalance.

New Section

The speaker discusses their focus on digging down into a deep discount buy-side imbalance in the coming months. They mention previous expectations for higher prices and how they have shifted to expecting lower prices.

Focus on Deep Discount Buy-Side Imbalance

  • Previous expectations were for higher prices based on old weekly volume imbalances.
  • Now, the focus has shifted to digging down into a deep discount buy-side imbalance.
  • This shift in expectation is likely to continue for the next two to three months.

New Section

The speaker presents the daily chart of NASDAQ and highlights the importance of understanding top-down analysis. They address concerns about complexity and emphasize that their concepts are specific elements they have developed.

Importance of Top-Down Analysis

  • The daily chart of NASDAQ shows various elements related to price delivery.
  • Understanding top-down analysis helps identify how price respects higher time frame PD arrays.
  • Complexity should be embraced as part of learning these concepts.
  • Concepts presented are specific elements developed by the speaker.

New Section

The speaker addresses the learning process and advises against rushing into trading without understanding the concepts. They emphasize the importance of studying and practicing chart analysis for months to gain proficiency.

Learning Process and Chart Analysis

  • Learning these concepts requires repeatedly dressing charts for months.
  • It is normal to feel unproductive during the learning process.
  • Rushing into trading without understanding can lead to losses.
  • Studying and practicing chart analysis is essential for gaining proficiency.

New Section

The speaker acknowledges limitations in reaching individuals who are not receptive to instructions. They express sympathy but state that they cannot invest further effort in those who do not listen or follow guidance.

Limitations in Reaching Unresponsive Individuals

  • Some individuals may be incapable of following instructions at a given time.
  • The speaker sympathizes but cannot invest more effort in those who do not listen or follow guidance.
  • Emotion and concern are conserved for those who are receptive and actively learning.

New Section

The speaker responds to complaints about complexity, emphasizing that their concepts make sense to those who have put in the work. They encourage viewers to study the provided charts and understand how price respects higher time frame elements.

Addressing Complaints About Complexity

  • Complaining about complexity does not consider the effort put into understanding the concepts.
  • The provided charts clearly demonstrate how price respects higher time frame elements.
  • Understanding comes from studying and analyzing price action over time.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of analyzing price action on different chart timeframes and emphasizes the need for thorough backtesting and studying to understand price movements.

Analyzing Candlesticks on Different Timeframes

  • The speaker explains that when analyzing candlesticks, it is important to consider the timeframe of the chart being used.
  • On a daily chart, each candlestick represents one full daily range high and low.
  • Price movements within these candlesticks can provide valuable information about support, resistance, and market trends.

Importance of Backtesting and Studying

  • The speaker highlights that simply watching videos or reading about trading strategies is not enough to become successful.
  • It is necessary to put in the work by backtesting strategies, journaling trades, and studying price action patterns.
  • By doing so, traders can gain a deeper understanding of why price moves in certain ways and develop trust in their analysis.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the challenges of trading during choppy summer months like August. They also caution against attempting to trade with real money or seeking funded accounts during this period.

Trading Challenges in Summer Months

  • The speaker acknowledges that summer months like August can be characterized by choppy and unpredictable price action.
  • While experienced traders may still find opportunities with nimbleness, new traders should be cautious during this period.
  • Watching videos or tutorials alone does not provide sufficient knowledge to successfully trade in real market conditions.

Avoid Trading with Real Money in August

  • The speaker advises against attempting to trade with real money or seeking funded accounts during August.
  • They suggest waiting for more favorable market conditions when liquidity is higher, such as in spring or fall months.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses a potential trade setup on a specific chart and explains the concept of a value gap.

Identifying Potential Trade Setup

  • The speaker identifies a buy-side amount cell significance on a chart that acted as support but was later breached.
  • They draw attention to this area and consider it as a potential inversion pair value gap.
  • The speaker expresses their preference for the price range from the low to about halfway of the shaded area to remain open.

Measuring Gap vs Breakaway Gap

  • The speaker differentiates between a measuring gap and a breakaway gap.
  • A measuring gap is expected to be about half of the move from high to low, while a breakaway gap indicates a significant shift in price direction.

New Section

In this section, the speaker analyzes an inefficiency on an hourly chart and discusses potential trading opportunities based on price movements.

Analyzing Inefficiencies on Hourly Chart

  • The speaker points out an inefficiency on an hourly chart that occurred on June 8th.
  • This inefficiency represents relative equal lows where price dropped down into that level.
  • They highlight another small inefficiency and discuss potential resistance levels based on subsequent price movements.

Desired Price Action Scenario

  • The speaker expresses their preference for price to trade below a certain level, treat it as resistance, and aggressively sell lower.
  • They mention their target area around Fourteen thousand four twenty for 430, hoping for similar delivery as shown in previous examples.

Expecting Lower Prices in the Coming Weeks

The speaker expects lower prices in the upcoming week and the following week. They mention that the 15-minute timeframe shows choppy and difficult trading conditions on Friday.

Analysis of Price Action

  • The speaker did not provide a timestamp for this section.
  • Due to the challenging price action, the speaker refrained from providing real-time analysis on Twitter as it would have required a deeper understanding of price action and may have caused confusion among followers.
  • Instead, the speaker executed their own trades and shared a recording on Twitter without commentary.

Lecture Preview: Navigating Trades and Reversals

  • The lecture scheduled for tomorrow will cover how to navigate trades when they become unfavorable and how to reverse positions to align with a different bias.
  • The speaker aims to teach viewers how to handle adverse situations and transition between different market biases effectively.

Analyzing S&P Performance

  • The speaker monitored both the S&P (traded) and NASDAQ (observed) markets during their trading session.
  • They will explain why they chose to trade the S&P instead of the NASDAQ in an upcoming lecture or discussion.

Detailed Analysis on 5-Minute Chart

  • The speaker used a five-minute chart as their primary reference while watching the S&P's performance.
  • They identified inefficiencies, value gaps, bullish breakers, and relative equal highs as key factors influencing their trading decisions.

Achieving Weekly Range Objectives

  • By observing price action patterns such as respecting certain levels, buy-side activity, and continuous upward movement, the speaker successfully achieved their weekly range objectives for TGIF (Thank God It's Friday).

Nasdaq Retracement at Close

  • The Nasdaq retraced from its highs towards the end of Friday's trading session, resulting in a close candle that indicated a retracement of 20-30 points from its range.

Timestamps are approximate and may not be entirely accurate.

Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.