Valores capital intensivo estrella de WS Las 4 claves de la semana 14 2 26 bolsas, economía,mercado

Market Paradigm Shift

Introduction to Market Changes

• José Luis Cárpatos introduces the current market as one of the most exciting in recent years, moving away from a focus solely on artificial intelligence.

• He emphasizes a significant paradigm shift in the market, highlighting the necessity for analysis and adaptation to these changes for effective investment decisions.

Volatility Insights

• Cárpatos discusses a graph from Goldman showing historical volatility, noting that it is at its highest since 2021, indicating increased market fluctuations.

• The SP500 index shows low realized volatility due to a lack of new money entering the market, which he attributes to fund managers being highly exposed with minimal cash reserves.

Sector Movements

• A critical observation is made regarding violent shifts in capital among sectors without affecting overall indices; money is moving between sectors rather than entering new investments.

• Recent trends show defensive sectors like utilities and real estate gaining while technology and financial sectors are losing capital. This indicates a search for safety amidst uncertainty.

Defensive vs. Growth Sectors

• Cárpatos questions whether the market's movement towards defensive stocks reflects genuine caution or if it's an opportunistic play on data center construction benefiting those sectors.

• He identifies "heavy capital" companies as currently favored by investors, contrasting them with "light capital" firms that require less infrastructure investment.

Conclusion and Call to Action

• The speaker urges viewers to stay engaged with ongoing discussions about these shifts, suggesting that understanding these dynamics will be crucial for future investment strategies.

• Cárpatos reassures viewers of continuous updates every Saturday, emphasizing his commitment to providing insights regardless of external circumstances.

Book Progress and Challenges

Struggles with Writing and Layout

• The speaker discusses the ongoing challenges of writing a book, mentioning minor issues with mice in their garage and basement as a humorous aside.

• Expresses exhaustion from working extensively on the book, indicating a strong desire to finish it soon.

• Shares frustrations regarding slow progress due to layout issues with hired professionals, describing them as "slower than molasses."

• Acknowledges help from a supportive follower named Antonio who offered assistance with the book's layout, leading to an earlier completion than expected.

• Optimism about advancing publication dates for the second part of "Leones contra gacelas" due to improved layout support.

Personal Life and Recommendations

• Mentions watching the series "Absentia," recommending it highly for its excellent script and tension-filled action scenes.

• Notes that they are currently on season 3 of "Absentia," praising all three seasons available on Netflix.

Market Insights and Economic Data

Recent Market Performance

• Introduces Trade Republic as a sponsor, highlighting its benefits such as competitive interest rates and no monthly fees for long-term investors.

Employment Data Concerns

• Reports on disappointing performance in the SP500 index, marking it as one of the worst weeks since November.

• Discusses recent employment data showing 130,000 jobs created but expresses skepticism about its accuracy, labeling it misleading.

Critique of Employment Reporting

• Criticizes methodological errors in employment data reporting by government agencies, suggesting that analysts should disregard flawed figures.

• Emphasizes reliance on alternative employment indicators like ADP reports rather than official statistics deemed unreliable.

Analysis of Job Creation Models

• Highlights criticism from economists regarding outdated job creation models used by major financial institutions that fail to reflect current realities.

• Points out discrepancies between adjusted and unadjusted employment figures, stressing the importance of accurate seasonal adjustments.

Employment Data Analysis and Critique

Issues with Employment Statistics

• The speaker discusses the discrepancies in employment statistics, highlighting that new businesses are creating jobs but are not reflected in official data due to delays in reporting.

• A critique is made of a flawed statistical model used for calculating employment, which was deemed ineffective by Goldman Sachs, suggesting it underestimated job creation by over 70,000 people.

• The speaker argues that if the model had not been changed, the reported job creation would have aligned more closely with expectations of around 60,000 jobs.

Federal Reserve's Perspective

• Comments from Federal Reserve members indicate skepticism about current employment data due to methodological issues stemming from government shutdowns affecting accuracy.

• The speaker expresses frustration over long-standing inaccuracies in employment data and notes changes in personnel responsible for these statistics.

Patterns in Employment Reporting

• There is a pattern where employment figures are often initially reported high but later revised downwards; this has occurred 25 out of the last 26 months.

• The speaker uses an analogy comparing misleading employment reports to identifying a cat based on its behavior—suggesting that repeated patterns indicate systemic issues.

Political Implications of Employment Data

• Politicians often take credit for positive initial reports on job creation but do not publicly acknowledge subsequent downward revisions.

• The speaker criticizes both Trump and Biden for manipulating data for political gain, emphasizing that this issue transcends party lines.

Global Context and Recommendations

• Various countries employ different tactics to present favorable unemployment statistics; examples include temporary contracts that obscure true unemployment rates.

• The speaker advises listeners to maintain critical thinking regarding political narratives surrounding employment data and encourages independent analysis.

Current Employment Market Insights

• While the current job market shows signs of weakness post-COVID adjustments, it is returning to normalcy as companies recalibrate hiring practices amidst rising wages.

• Changes in labor supply dynamics due to immigration policies are noted as significant factors influencing the labor market's recovery trajectory.

Tariffs Impact on Employment

• Recent studies reinforce the argument that tariffs imposed by the U.S. have detrimental effects on domestic industries—a self-inflicted wound according to the speaker.

• Reference is made to historical trade tensions with China as part of a broader discussion on economic policy impacts.

Economic Impact of Tariffs

The Burden of Tariffs on Consumers and Companies

• 70% of tariffs are absorbed by consumers, while only 30% are taken on by U.S. companies, and 0% by foreign exporters. This challenges the narrative that tariffs benefit the economy.

• The idea that tariffs bring in a flood of money from foreign countries is misleading; instead, it is U.S. citizens and businesses who bear the cost through higher prices.

• Two studies indicate that consumers absorb between 40%-50% of tariffs, with U.S. companies taking on another 40%, leaving only a small percentage for foreign exporters.

Economic Literacy Among Voters

• Many voters lack basic economic knowledge, which makes them susceptible to political rhetoric about tariffs and their benefits.

• There is a significant gap in financial education within schools; essential concepts like GDP or inflation are often not taught, leading to widespread misunderstanding among the public.

Misconceptions About Foreign Money Flow

• Politicians exploit public ignorance regarding economics to promote policies like tariffs without accountability. The misconception that foreign entities are financially benefiting at the expense of Americans persists due to this lack of understanding.

• Claims about an influx of money from abroad due to tariffs are false; there is no substantial financial gain from these measures as portrayed by politicians.

Recent Developments in Tariff Policy

• The U.S. has been quietly reducing many tariffs and negotiating trade agreements, indicating a shift away from previous hardline stances on trade.

• While some tariffs may be necessary (e.g., against China), they should not be applied universally as they can harm domestic economies more than help them.

Inflation Trends Amidst Tariff Changes

• Despite rising tariff rates historically correlating with inflation, recent data suggests inflation remains stable even amidst high tariff levels due to compensatory economic factors.

• Current core inflation rates show signs of stability; recent reports indicate lower-than-expected increases in consumer prices despite ongoing tariff impacts.

Market Reactions and Economic Indicators

• Market reactions have varied: smaller domestic companies (Russell index) performed well while larger tech stocks (S&P500 and Nasdaq indices), heavily impacted by market fluctuations, faced declines due to poor performance metrics among major players like Meta and Nvidia.

• Trade Republic offers various investment products tailored for navigating current market conditions amid these economic discussions surrounding major tech firms' struggles.

Investment Insights and Market Trends

Overview of Investment Products

• Discussion on a leveraged ETF that has seen significant growth, with a 376% increase noted recently.

• The product's price rose from 11 to 14 since January 27, indicating nearly a 40% increase in value.

• Emphasis on the utility sector as a strong investment area, highlighting various products available for European investors.

ETF Composition and Performance

• Detailed breakdown of an ETF's composition showing 99.6% allocation to utilities, providing transparency for investors.

• Important metrics shared include low fees (0.15%) and total assets amounting to €91 million, enhancing investor confidence.

Sector-Specific Opportunities

• Mention of diverse energy sectors including clean energy and nuclear power as emerging areas of interest for investors.

• Introduction of investment plans allowing for permanent portfolios with no brokerage fees on ETFs purchased monthly.

Market Dynamics and Short Selling

• Analysis of increased short selling in technology stocks, particularly within the XLK ETF, indicating market volatility.

• Observations on recent downturns in software and financial sectors attributed to fears surrounding AI advancements impacting these industries.

Emerging Companies and Innovations

• Introduction to Antropic, a company raising $30 billion with a current valuation of $380 billion; founded by former OpenAI employees focusing on ethical AI development.

• Discussion about Antropic’s impact on the software sector due to its high-quality products potentially replacing existing solutions.

Investor Sentiment Towards AI Technologies

• Commentary on the competitive landscape among generative chat models like Perplexity versus newer entrants like Cl; concerns over their implications for traditional software markets are highlighted.

• Reference to JP Morgan's analysis illustrating spending trends in AI technologies affecting market reactions significantly.

Understanding Recent Market Trends and AI Impact

Shifts in Capital Expenditure (Capex) Perception

• The perception of capital expenditure (Capex) has shifted significantly; previously, higher spending on AI was rewarded, but now it is penalized.

• This change indicates a broader market sentiment where increased investment in AI is viewed negatively, contrasting with earlier trends where such investments were seen as positive.

Performance of Different Market Sectors

• Recent data shows that sectors perceived to be at risk from AI advancements have underperformed, with a notable decline of -9.05% for these stocks over the week.

• Cyclical stocks are also struggling, indicating a potential shift away from growth-oriented investments towards more stable sectors.

Leverage and Market Vulnerability

• Many hedge funds remain highly leveraged, with debt levels at the 98th percentile over the last five years, raising concerns about market stability.

• Despite reducing positions over four weeks, there remains significant exposure that could lead to further market corrections if not managed properly.

Sector Rotation: Digital to Physical Assets

• A clear rotation is occurring from digital technology investments to physical assets like industrials and utilities, suggesting a strategic pivot by investors seeking stability amidst volatility.

• This trend reflects a broader market strategy focusing on defensive sectors that benefit from infrastructure developments such as data centers.

Derivatives Market Insights and Upcoming Economic Indicators

• There is an increase in short positions within the Nasdaq alongside heightened demand for downside protection, indicating cautious investor sentiment ahead of potential market fluctuations.

• Key economic indicators are set to be released next week including Federal Reserve meeting minutes and inflation measures (PCE), which will likely influence market movements significantly.

Analysis of Software Market Trends and AI Impact

Overview of New Software Baskets

• Discussion on a new basket called GSPUSFTX, focusing on software that cannot be easily displaced by AI due to the need for physical execution and strong regulation.

• Comparison between software baskets affected by AI and those benefiting from it, highlighting differences in performance.

Performance Metrics and Sector Analysis

• Notable decline in price-to-earnings ratios (PER) across various sectors, with projections showing further decreases by 2027.

• Emphasis on the importance of distinguishing between software immune to AI versus vulnerable software for investment strategies.

Investment Strategies Based on AI Influence

• Introduction of a new strategy focusing on long positions in software that benefits from AI (e.g., infrastructure, cloud services) while shorting vulnerable software.

• Evidence presented showing significant sales growth in "AI immune" software compared to stagnation in more vulnerable categories since 2023.

Market Dynamics and Future Projections

• Goldman Sachs' analysis suggests we are not in a classic bear market but rather experiencing sector rotation influenced by AI advancements.

• The report stresses the need for active analysis regarding which companies will thrive or struggle due to AI's impact moving forward.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• The ongoing revolution of artificial intelligence is reshaping market dynamics; understanding who benefits or suffers is crucial for investment success.

• Importance of utilizing tools like Trade Republic to analyze ETF compositions based on their exposure to AI impacts.

Shifts in Market Preferences

• A shift away from previously dominant tech stocks ("the Magnificent Seven") towards capital-intensive businesses is noted as a key trend.

• Analysts highlight the growing preference for capital-intensive companies over light-capital firms, indicating a fundamental change in market focus.

Capital Intensive vs. Non-Capital Intensive: A Market Paradigm Shift

Overview of Capital Intensity in Markets

• The discussion highlights the significant growth disparity between capital-intensive and non-capital-intensive sectors, explaining why the S&P 500 has outperformed the STOXX 600 for years.

• A notable shift is occurring as capital-intensive companies, previously undervalued, are beginning to gain traction in the market after years of being overlooked.

• Historical data shows that value stocks have suffered compared to tech companies that require less capital investment, indicating a long-term trend reversal.

Current Market Dynamics

• The performance of equal-weighted S&P 500 stocks has lagged behind traditional weighted indices, but this trend is changing as market dynamics evolve.

• The speaker emphasizes that understanding these shifts is crucial for investors looking to capitalize on emerging opportunities in capital-heavy industries.

Key Insights from Recent Research

• A compelling paper suggests that "boring" investments (like transport stocks) have outperformed high-tech ones over a long period, challenging common perceptions about market excitement and profitability.

• Comparisons between the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Transport Index reveal that traditional sectors can yield better returns despite their perceived dullness.

Volatility and Investment Trends

• Current volatility levels within major stock baskets are at unprecedented highs since COVID, indicating significant fluctuations in investor sentiment and sector performance.

• The SP Global Infrastructure ETF's recent rise reflects a growing interest in infrastructure investments as markets seek stability amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

Future Considerations for Investors

• Potential peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine could impact various sectors; infrastructure may benefit while defense stocks might see corrections.

• The ongoing rotation towards capital-intensive assets marks a pivotal moment in market strategy; this week saw significant gains for such investments compared to non-capital intensive ones since late 2022.

Technical Analysis of Market Support Levels

• The S&P 500 remains stagnant since October due to lackluster movements; critical support levels include the 100-day moving average at approximately 6,800 points.

• Bitcoin's price action illustrates similar patterns with key support found at its 200-week moving average around $58,000; losing this level could signal further declines.

Market Analysis and Insights for 2023

Current Market Conditions

• The year 2023 is projected to be extremely dangerous, with a natural resistance level around 76,000. The euro against the dollar shows significant fluctuations, with the key moving average at 1.1740 and strong resistance at 121.

• The market remains bearish within a long-term lateral range. A breakthrough above the 100-day moving average (around zone 98.5) could indicate a shift in market dynamics.

Dollar Index Sentiment

• There is widespread belief that the dollar will continue to decline; however, this crowded trade may lead to unexpected upward movements in the dollar, potentially catching many traders off guard.

• If such an upward movement occurs, it could result in significant short squeezes as traders who bet against the dollar are forced to cover their positions.

Gold Market Trends

• Gold appears to be stabilizing after a severe correction, showing positive evolution similar to past patterns observed around the $4000 mark.

• Currently working through resistance levels near $5000; if it surpasses the upper Mogalev band around $5150, further price increases may follow while maintaining an overall bullish trend.

Weekly Chart Analysis

• On weekly charts, gold's RSI remains stable below 60 with support established at approximately $4540. Breaking through the upper Mogalev band (around $5130) could confirm continued bullish momentum without major obstacles.

Key Economic Indicators

• According to Harnet's report for this year:

• Gold has risen by 13.4%, while oil increased by 9.5%.

• International equities have outperformed U.S. stocks (+8.7% vs -0.2%).

• Commodities show an increase of +8.1%, indicating favorable conditions outside U.S markets.

• Concerns arise from anticipated debt issuance related to artificial intelligence investments totaling $400 billion; Google faced backlash due to its recent bond issuance of $32 billion which affected its stock performance negatively.

Bond Market Dynamics

• Google's substantial bond issuance has created competition among corporate bonds and treasury bonds leading to negative sentiment towards tech stocks reliant on free cash flow rather than increasing debt levels.

• Notably, Google issued a rare 100-year bond at a high coupon rate of 6%. Historically, such long-term bonds signal peak market conditions before potential declines occur.

Overall Market Sentiment

• The current market environment reflects unease regarding excessive debt levels among companies traditionally funded by cash flow rather than borrowing.

• High-yield bonds have seen modest gains (+1.2%), while Bitcoin has plummeted by 25% this year amidst broader volatility across financial markets.

Conclusion on Market Ideology

• The prevailing market ideology is chaotic and unpredictable; even advanced AI models struggle to interpret raw emotions driving current trading behaviors.

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Trump's Market Strategies and Economic Insights

Trump's Approval Ratings and Upcoming Elections

• Trump is determined to prevent market declines as midterm elections approach, despite his approval rating dropping to 42%.

• His inflation approval rating is even lower at 36.4%, indicating significant public discontent.

Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Various Sectors

• Trump highlights the negative impact of AI on sectors like wealth management, real estate, and logistics, suggesting a "wild disruption."

• The technology sector in India was notably affected by AI in early 2025 and has struggled to recover since then.

Economic Indicators and Market Trends

• A major infrastructure provider cutting capital expenditures could signal a shift from AI-driven growth to economic hardship.

• The correlation between the Japanese yen and Nikkei index has turned positive for the first time since 2005, indicating potential bullish trends.

Currency Fluctuations and Market Reactions

• A rising yen complicates positions in cryptocurrencies, silver, private equity, software, and energy markets; intervention may be needed if it surpasses certain thresholds.

• Current indicators suggest stagnation in the market with no significant advancements noted recently.

Investment Flows and Sentiment Analysis

• Recent investment flows show $46.3 billion entering equities, $25.4 billion into bonds, with notable inflows into gold ($3.4 billion), reflecting a lack of panic selling.

• Anticipated fund manager surveys indicate an optimistic sentiment not seen since July 2021; cash levels have risen from a record low of 3.2% to over 3.8%.

Future Market Rotations

• Emerging markets and small-cap stocks are expected to lead future market rotations as larger growth companies face outflows.

• This shift represents a broader transition from elitism towards populism within economic structures.

Global Economic Shifts

• The U.S. exceptionalism is diminishing as global rebalancing occurs; emerging markets are poised for growth amidst changing dynamics.

The End of U.S. Exceptionalism?

Analysis of Market Trends

• The comparison between the S&P 500 and the MSCI World Index indicates a decline in U.S. market performance, suggesting a shift away from U.S. exceptionalism as global markets outperform it.

• Harnet highlights that U.S. economic policies aimed at overheating the economy may lead to new strategies that favor international markets over the dollar, particularly emerging markets.

• Emerging economies are positioned to benefit from increased demand for commodities driven by AI, with China and India remaining underrepresented in asset allocations despite being major global economies.

Future Investment Opportunities

• According to Harnet, Chinese assets such as banks and real estate could become significant investment opportunities as deflationary pressures ease, indicating a potential rotation from bonds into equities.

• The speaker expresses gratitude to viewers for their support and emphasizes the importance of likes on videos for algorithm visibility, noting their growing audience despite having fewer subscribers than some competitors.

Personal Insights and Community Engagement

• The speaker encourages viewers to conduct their own analyses rather than solely relying on external opinions, acknowledging personal fallibility in financial predictions.

• Acknowledgment is given to the diverse international audience of Spanish-speaking countries interested in finance, reinforcing community engagement across various nations including Spain, Peru, Chile, Uruguay, Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, and the United States.