Quel sera le futur de Bitcoin ? Avec Yves Choueifaty

Name: Quel sera le futur de Bitcoin ? Avec Yves Choueifaty
Uploaded: 2025-12-22T16:00:44.000Z
Duration: 2 h 46 min 52 s

Bitcoin and Its Future: Insights from Tobam's Founder

The Risks of Unregulated Gold Stocks

The speaker warns that unregulated gold stocks could finance crime and terrorism, highlighting the lack of audits on gold reserves held by institutions like the Banque de France and the Bank of England.

Emphasizes that Bitcoin is not the currency of the future due to its slow transaction speeds.

Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset

Discusses Bitcoin's potential role as a reserve asset for financial institutions, linking it to digital asset treasuries (DAT).

Mentions Hal Finney, speculated to be Satoshi Nakamoto, who conceptualized reserve institutions holding Bitcoin back in 2010.

Introduction to Tobam

Fati introduces himself as the founder of Tobam, with a background in asset management.

Tobam aims to provide unique services to sophisticated institutional clients that traditional asset managers do not offer.

Early Interest in Bitcoin

Fati reveals that Tobam began exploring Bitcoin around 2013 out of curiosity rather than professional interest.

Initially viewed as a novelty or gadget, he likens early exploration of Bitcoin to dismantling a Rubik's Cube for understanding.

Discovering Bitcoin’s Potential

Fati describes his initial intrigue with Bitcoin stemming from an article discussing its solutions to problems like double spending.

He compares discovering aspects of Bitcoin to Alice's adventures in Wonderland—each discovery leads deeper into its complexities and wonders.

Transitioning from Curiosity to Strategy

Over time, they recognized that Bitcoin was more than just a gadget; it became essential for Tobam’s strategy starting in 2016.

Highlights how understanding Bitcoin requires knowledge across various fields such as mathematics, sociology, and finance.

Investment Thesis on Bitcoin

The Initial Bet on Bitcoin

In 2016, a bold prediction was made: "One day, the greatest fund managers in the world will offer Bitcoin investment funds to their clients." This statement marked a significant bet on the future of Bitcoin.

Following this prediction, a serious approach was taken by purchasing Bitcoin and forming a dedicated research team to explore its investment potential.

Developing an Investment Thesis

The research team's first task was to create an investment thesis for Bitcoin, shifting focus from its technological aspects to its viability as an investment asset.

After several months of work, they produced a comprehensive 90-page paper that caught the attention of regulatory bodies (MF), leading to discussions about launching a fund.

Regulatory Challenges and Breakthrough

Initially faced with regulatory barriers preventing the launch of a Bitcoin fund, further investigation revealed potential loopholes in financial regulations that could allow it.

Through extensive dialogue with regulators (over 400 iterations), they successfully launched the world's first open-end fund invested in Bitcoin in November 2017.

Industry Reception and Criticism

The announcement of the fund generated significant media coverage globally; however, it also attracted skepticism from traditional finance institutions.

A letter from a major French institutional client expressed concerns about reputational risks associated with investing in Bitcoin, fearing it would finance illegal activities.

Defense of Innovation and Vision

In response to criticism, a well-reasoned letter was crafted emphasizing Tobam's innovative approach and commitment to responsible investing rather than financing illicit activities.

The success of major firms like Fidelity and BlackRock entering the space reinforces that these investments are not merely speculative or harmful but part of evolving financial landscapes.

Understanding Economic Foundations

The discussion transitions into defining economics as an exchange based on trust—highlighting how economic interactions rely on mutual confidence between parties.

Trust is essential for economic transactions; without it, exchanges devolve into violence or coercion. Economics thrives when trust prevails over conflict.

Need for Unquestionable Assets

An exploration into economic principles reveals that there is a need for "unquestionable assets"—assets whose value is universally accepted without doubt.

These assets facilitate measuring value within economies where goods and services are exchanged based on established trust.

Understanding Value Measurement in Economics

The Need for a Standard of Value

To facilitate production, exchange, or storage, there is a necessity to measure the value of items. This requires a standard or benchmark.

Historically, various objects have served as standards of value, with gold being the most enduring and widely accepted over time.

Limitations of Gold as a Standard

Despite its historical significance, gold has limitations; it is not easily auditable in today's digital economy.

Trust issues arise when verifying the authenticity of gold holdings since auditing often requires melting down the metal itself.

Many central banks' gold reserves remain unverified; no recent audits confirm their actual quantities.

Transitioning from Gold to Fiat Currency

The current primary standard for measuring value has shifted from gold to fiat currencies like the dollar.

Concerns about the dollar's long-term stability lead to questions regarding its reliability as a standard of value.

Emergence of Bitcoin as an Alternative

With doubts surrounding fiat currency stability, some propose creating new standards. A Japanese individual introduced Bitcoin in 2009 as a potential solution.

Bitcoin was launched amid increasing U.S. debt levels exceeding $37 trillion and ongoing monetary expansion.

Economic Imbalances and Their Implications

Discussion on how economic imbalances—particularly between state resources and expenditures—drive significant financial movements today.

The speaker emphasizes that while debt itself isn't inherently problematic, its continuous growth poses risks to economic stability.

Notably, Donald Trump’s administration is mentioned concerning dollar devaluation due to rising national debt levels.

Key Takeaways on Economic Dynamics

The most compelling aspects of economics are rooted in imbalance rather than equilibrium; these imbalances create movement within markets.

Understanding these dynamics can provide insights into future economic trends and potential shifts in value measurement systems.

Economic Challenges and the Role of Inflation

The Improbability of Reducing Expenditures

The speaker discusses the immense imbalance in expenditures, suggesting that a significant reduction in spending is highly unlikely.

Criticism is directed at French deputies for their incompetence regarding economic issues, highlighting a general disregard for the realities affecting citizens' lives.

Taxation and Budget Concerns

Even those who typically support tax increases are recognizing the impracticality of massively raising taxes after a lengthy budget discussion.

With limited options to either increase taxes or decrease spending, inflation emerges as the only viable solution to finance existing obligations.

Monetary Illusions and Economic Health

The speaker draws an analogy between central banking and anesthesia, warning that reliance on monetary expansion can lead to economic dependency rather than growth.

A metaphor describes the public sector as an overburdened entity consuming 59% of GDP while failing to recognize its diminishing effectiveness.

Consequences of Fiscal Mismanagement

The discussion likens current fiscal practices to someone falling from a height, where initial perceptions may be misleading until reality hits hard.

Questions arise about whether political leaders understand the impending decline in dollar value as it faces ongoing crises.

Historical Context of Currency Value

The speaker reflects on historical currency management, noting that money has been devalued over time through governmental manipulation.

An exploration into how sovereign powers historically certified currency quality reveals patterns of trust erosion in monetary systems.

Lessons from Ancient Economies

Historical examples illustrate how empires like Rome gradually debased their currency, leading to diminished purchasing power over centuries.

The narrative emphasizes that even powerful entities succumbed to temptation by reducing gold content in coins for short-term gain.

This structured summary captures key insights from the transcript while providing timestamps for easy reference.

The Role of Currency in the Roman Army and Modern Banking

The Stability of Currency and Military Growth

The stability of silver content in the denarius correlated with an increase in the number of soldiers in the Roman Empire, highlighting currency as a medium of trust.

Critique of Central Banking Practices

The European Central Bank (ECB) has deviated from its original mission, leading to poor implementation despite good intentions behind the euro's creation.

Historical Context of Central Banks

The concept of central banks originated in 1694 with the establishment of the Bank of England, which was designed to raise capital through issuing currency backed by gold.

Evolution and Influence of Central Banks

Napoleon aimed to replicate England's model by creating the Banque de France, which became one of the most influential banks until nationalization post-WWII.

Distinction Between Traditional and Central Banks

Traditional banks focus on asset innovation through lending, while central banks should prioritize holding stable assets and managing liabilities effectively.

Understanding Reserve Institutions

Characteristics of a True Reserve Institution

A true reserve institution should hold unquestionable assets while innovating at its liability level to create stable financial instruments like government debt.

Financial Engineering for Capital Management

Effective reserve institutions deploy ingenuity to issue various financial instruments, including banknotes or stablecoins, enhancing their capital base.

Bitcoin Treasuries: A Modern Financial Strategy

Accumulation Strategies for Bitcoin

Companies are increasingly employing sophisticated financial strategies to accumulate Bitcoin as part of their treasury management practices.

Ideal Reserve Model Inspired by History

The ideal reserve model reflects historical practices but is adapted for modern contexts; figures like Michael Saylor advocate for this approach within cryptocurrency frameworks.

Alphinet and the Mystique of Satoshi Nakamoto

The Connection to Satoshi Nakamoto

Alphinet was involved in early Bitcoin discussions, leading to speculation about his identity as Satoshi Nakamoto.

A humorous anecdote mentions a person named Satoshi Nakamoto living in the same city as Alphinet, adding to the intrigue.

Coincidences surrounding Alphinet's activities and health issues raise questions about his potential connection to Bitcoin's creation.

Insights on Bitcoin's Scalability

In a post dated December 30, 2010, Alphinet stated that "Bitcoin itself cannot scale to every single financial transaction," indicating skepticism about its future as a currency.

He argued that Bitcoin’s confirmation time of ten minutes is insufficient for practical use, suggesting it would not serve as the currency of the future.

Predictions and Concepts Introduced by Alphinet

Alphinet proposed that "there is therefore a very good reason for Bitcoin banks to exist," envisioning institutions holding Bitcoin as reserve assets.

His ideas predated similar concepts introduced by others like Michael Sailor, highlighting his foresight regarding Bitcoin's role in finance.

The Evolution of Perspectives on Bitcoin

Despite initial skepticism towards Bitcoin, Alphinet predicted its price trajectory back in January 2009, showcasing his understanding of market dynamics.

He introduced the concept of being bullish on Bitcoin linked with belief in digital asset treasuries and reserve institutions.

Michael Sailor's Transformation

Michael Sailor’s journey from skepticism to advocacy for Bitcoin illustrates an evolving perspective within financial circles; he acknowledged past mistakes regarding his views on cryptocurrency.

Sailor’s book “Bullish Case for Bitcoin” reflects this shift and addresses various criticisms while promoting a positive outlook on cryptocurrency investments.

Institutional Adoption and Strategy

By 2019, Sailor converted significant corporate treasury funds into Bitcoin, aligning with concepts previously articulated by Alphinet regarding institutional investment strategies.

His approach emphasizes minimal engineering complexity at the asset level while strategically managing liabilities through innovative treasury practices.

Understanding MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy

The Role of Antimatter in Investment Confidence

The speaker discusses how MicroStrategy holds a small amount of "antimatter" alongside its investments, which paradoxically reassures some investors despite the unconventional nature of this asset.

MicroStrategy's Initial Bitcoin Investments

In 2020, MicroStrategy began purchasing Bitcoin when prices were relatively low, around $20,000. This strategic move was made as Bitcoin was not widely accessible through traditional financial vehicles at that time.

Institutional Interest and Market Dynamics

The lack of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin led to increased interest from institutional and individual investors seeking indirect exposure through stocks related to cryptocurrency.

Challenges with Traditional Banking Systems

Initially, it was complicated for individuals to hold actual Bitcoins in banks. However, changes in U.S. regulations are now allowing direct ownership of Bitcoin rather than just ETF shares.

Impact of BlackRock's ETF Launch

The launch of BlackRock’s ETF marked a significant shift in the market dynamics for Bitcoin investments. It diminished the uniqueness of MicroStrategy’s strategy since larger players like BlackRock entered the space.

Capital Raising Strategies Post-ETF Launch

Following the ETF launch, MicroStrategy aimed to raise capital by issuing new shares. This would allow them to increase their holdings of Bitcoin per share significantly.

Promises Made to Shareholders

The speaker explains that MicroStrategy promises shareholders that owning one share will equate to an increasing number of Bitcoins over time—potentially more than one Bitcoin per share in the future.

Performance Metrics and Historical Returns

Despite a challenging year with only 25% returns compared to previous years where returns exceeded 1000%, there is still confidence in substantial growth potential linked to their investment strategy.

Future Financial Instruments and Debt Products

To fulfill their promises, MicroStrategy plans on creating increasingly sophisticated financial products and may eventually issue debt instruments similar to those used by central banks.

Presentation of Upcoming Show: The Euro

Initial Promises and Objectives

The show discusses the initial promise regarding financing states, emphasizing that they would never fund "imptunieux" states.

The primary goal was stated to be price stability measured in euros, which raises questions about what constitutes this stability.

Inflation and Price Stability

A debate is emerging around whether a 2% inflation target is sufficient for price stability, with some suggesting it may need to be higher.

There are discussions among working groups considering increasing the inflation target to achieve greater price stability.

Speculation and Market Valuation

Mechanisms of Capital Increase

Companies are launching new shares to increase capital, ensuring more Bitcoin is attached to these new shares.

Understanding Speculation

Speculation originates from the Latin word "spéculare," meaning "to see," indicating that speculators have a vision for future value.

A speculator believes that a company's future results will justify paying more than its current asset value.

Valuation Discrepancies in Companies

Asset Value vs. Market Capitalization

Companies like Hermes often have market valuations exceeding their net asset values due to speculative interest.

Strategic Decisions Based on Valuation

When market capitalization exceeds stock value, companies might consider increasing share numbers and acquiring more assets like Bitcoin.

Comparative Analysis of Assets

Liquidity and Asset Types

Unlike factories or physical assets, Bitcoin is liquid and can appreciate independently of production capacity.

Industrial Minerals vs. Digital Assets

The discussion contrasts digital assets like Bitcoin with industrial minerals such as oil, highlighting differences in usage and valuation dynamics.

Value Storage Dynamics

Gold vs. Other Commodities

Gold has limited industrial use but retains high value due to its perception as a store of wealth; jewelry exemplifies this concept.

Impact of Appreciation on Usage Behavior

As Bitcoin appreciates, demand for using it as a store of value increases; conversely, rising oil prices may lead consumers to seek alternatives.

Understanding the Value of Bitcoin and Company Performance

The Concept of M Nave

The term "M nave" refers to the relationship between a company's value and its Bitcoin holdings, calculated as the enterprise value minus debt.

M nave is defined as the multiple of Bitcoin stock minus debt, where a higher M nave indicates an increase in Bitcoin per share.

Performance Metrics of Companies

Over two years, Bitcoin has reportedly increased by 100%, while MicroStrategy's performance is around 300%.

A Japanese company named Méplanè has seen a staggering growth of approximately 3000% over three years by replicating MicroStrategy's model.

French Companies in the Market

Capital B is identified as a French company that adopted this model later than others but still achieved significant performance metrics.

In one year, while Bitcoin's growth was about 10%, Capital B reportedly achieved around 300% performance.

Factors Influencing Performance

Toba published a scientific article explaining MicroStrategy's remarkable performance through an equation comprising three terms: Bitcoin yield, market beta related to Bitcoin price changes, and changes in M nave.

Breakdown of Performance Equation

The first term (Bitcoin yield): If shares increase without market movement, share prices rise proportionally with more Bitcoins per share.

The second term (market beta): Reflects how share prices respond to fluctuations in Bitcoin value; if Bitcoin rises by 5%, so do share values.

Understanding Changes in M Nave

The third term relates directly to changes in M nave; if it increases or decreases without other market movements, it affects overall performance significantly.

Market Sentiment Impacting Value

Changes in M nave are influenced primarily by market sentiment rather than just the price of Bitcoin itself.

Market sentiment can lead to speculation; for instance, positive news can drive up perceived value even if actual conditions remain unchanged.

Speculation and Future Outlook

Speculative behavior mirrors trends seen with luxury brands like Hermès; perceptions about future potential can inflate current valuations despite underlying risks.

Ultimately, market sentiment drives fluctuations in M nave; negative perceptions can lead to declines regardless of actual asset values.

Speculation and Market Dynamics in Cryptocurrency

The Role of Speculation in Bitcoin's Price Surge

Speculation is driving the price increase of Bitcoin, particularly noted at the end of 2024 when its value experiences a significant rise.

Investors seek to increase their beta exposure; initially holding Bitcoin, they become eager for higher returns through leveraged products that offer a beta greater than 1.

Shift from Bitcoin to Altcoins

Early on, investors turned to altcoins believing they would outperform Bitcoin, despite differing fundamentals between these cryptocurrencies.

A herd mentality contributed to this trend, with cycles roughly every four years being identified as patterns within market behavior.

Diminishing Importance of Halving Events

The significance of halving events is decreasing due to the high existing supply of mined Bitcoins (approximately 95%).

With only about 5% left to mine, the impact of production changes on market liquidity is less pronounced than before.

Misconceptions About Correlation Among Cryptocurrencies

There are no justified correlations between Ethereum or Solana and Bitcoin; each has distinct business models that do not inherently link them.

Leveraging strategies for Bitcoin trading can be risky due to high volatility and potential liquidation risks for traders.

Strategies for Enhanced Beta Exposure

Current methods for achieving higher beta include borrowing against assets; however, this carries significant risk due to market volatility.

Selling Bitcoin to invest in other assets can negatively affect the overall market dynamics by reducing demand for Bitcoin itself.

Future Outlook: ETF Launches and Capital Attraction

In January 2024, new ETF launches are anticipated as a strategy to attract fresh capital into the cryptocurrency space.

By early 2025, innovative financing methods will be explored by companies involved in cryptocurrency mining and investment.

Market Sentiment and Bitcoin's Influence

Market Dynamics and MNA

The speaker discusses the impact of declining market sentiment on MNA (Market Net Assets), suggesting that if Bitcoin's outlook worsens, interest in certain stocks will diminish, leading MNA to approach one.

A strategic idea is introduced: the speaker emphasizes that they do not need their MNA to exceed one; instead, they focus on a bullish stance towards Bitcoin.

Innovative Financial Instruments

The concept of perpetual bonds is presented as a reinvention of financial instruments. These bonds are designed to never be repaid but pay coupons indefinitely.

In 2024, convertible bonds represented 41% of trading volume in the U.S., indicating a significant success for this financial instrument.

Understanding Perpetual Bonds

Perpetual bonds are explained as instruments that provide annual payments without ever returning the principal amount. This structure raises questions about long-term trust in such investments.

The speaker notes that confidence issues have historically led to the decline of markets like perpetual bonds, yet they represent an ultimate form of trust.

Financial Strategy and Sustainability

A critical question arises regarding how dividends can be paid despite declining software revenues without selling Bitcoin, which was initially promised not to happen.

Two potential solutions for paying dividends are discussed: selling some Bitcoin or relying on its appreciation over time.

Leveraging Asset Appreciation

If Bitcoin appreciates significantly, it allows for increased borrowing against net asset value. For example, doubling Bitcoin’s value could enable higher debt levels while maintaining a stable debt-to-equity ratio.

The strategy hinges on maintaining a constant or slightly increasing debt ratio while betting on long-term appreciation of Bitcoin rather than immediate sales.

Long-Term Viability and Dividend Payments

The model suggests sustainability does not require MNA above one; it can remain viable indefinitely under certain conditions.

Michael Saylor's recent video highlights that MicroStrategy has enough assets to cover 74 years' worth of dividends based on current stable Bitcoin prices.

Performance Requirements for Stability

To maintain dividend payments without selling any Bitcoin, an average annual increase in Bitcoin value by at least 1.4% is necessary—considered moderately bullish.

This performance threshold ensures stability in debt relative to net assets while allowing MicroStrategy to sustain its dividend obligations indefinitely.

Escape Velocity and Bitcoin Investment Strategies

Understanding Escape Velocity in Bitcoin Context

The term "escape velocity" was first used approximately two years ago to describe a scenario related to Bitcoin, indicating a scientific concept that applies to financial growth.

A specific rate is calculated that allows for significant upward movement in Bitcoin's value, although the exact figure is not recalled by the speaker.

Investment Thesis on Bitcoin

If one is bearish on Bitcoin, investing in MicroStrategy may not be advisable as it contradicts the investment thesis aimed at capitalizing on an asset expected to rise. Being bullish is essential; otherwise, long-term prospects could be problematic.

A moderate bullish stance (1.4%) is considered very cautious; exceeding this threshold could lead to outperforming Bitcoin itself due to various circumstances surrounding market dynamics.

Corporate Adoption of Bitcoin Strategies

Many companies have adopted MicroStrategy's model for holding Bitcoin or crypto assets primarily as a last resort to boost their stock prices before potential bankruptcy, rather than having a genuine strategic approach towards Bitcoin investment.

Notable exceptions exist where firms like Maplanè and Capital B have developed authentic strategies around Bitcoin investments, distinguishing them from others lacking real commitment.

Market Dynamics and Trust Issues

Discussions are ongoing regarding companies' potential delisting from indices like MSCI and S&P 500, which could impact investor confidence significantly if they fail to implement effective strategies moving forward.

The performance of MicroStrategy has been criticized; despite launching its strategy in 2019, its current valuation raises questions about management effectiveness and investor trust levels. This reflects broader concerns about corporate governance within cryptocurrency investments.

Selling Strategy and Market Sentiment

There’s skepticism regarding whether MicroStrategy would ever sell its Bitcoin holdings; however, historical precedents show central banks occasionally sell gold reserves under certain conditions—suggesting flexibility might be necessary even for institutions claiming steadfastness against selling assets like cryptocurrencies.

Michael Saylor has indicated he would only consider selling if it serves shareholder interests optimally; thus far, he maintains his intention not to sell unless absolutely required due to unforeseen circumstances impacting liquidity or operational needs.

Future Outlook for Investors

Despite market fluctuations affecting sentiment towards holding or selling assets like Bitcoin, Saylor reassures investors that he can sustain operations without immediate reliance on liquidating holdings—indicating confidence in managing cash flow over the next couple of years regardless of market conditions.

The anticipated event that could significantly influence market dynamics is projected for 2025—a year deemed crucial for potential shifts in the cryptocurrency landscape that investors should monitor closely as part of their strategic planning efforts moving forward.

Bitcoin and Gold: Market Dynamics

Bitcoin's Performance in 2025

Bitcoin has seen a significant decline since the beginning of the year, particularly in euros, while its drop in dollars is less pronounced.

The performance of gold in 2025 is approximately 65%, raising questions about why people are investing in gold over Bitcoin.

Motivations Behind Gold Investment

Buying gold often reflects distrust towards central bankers; investors exchange dollars for gold as a hedge against monetary instability.

Inflation is discussed as a measure not of value change but rather of currency devaluation, indicating that stable assets like gold are sought after when fiat currencies weaken.

Central Bank Policies and Market Reactions

The European Central Bank (ECB)'s primary mission is price stability, which contrasts with public perceptions regarding its role in preventing wars.

A surge in gold prices suggests diminishing faith in the Bretton Woods system, leading to increased interest in both gold and Bitcoin as alternative stores of value.

Historical Context and Market Behavior

In 2020, during a strong year for gold, Bitcoin remained flat or slightly declined. This pattern raises concerns about market dynamics where institutional players influence asset movements.

The discussion highlights how major market players shift their focus from one asset to another based on prevailing conditions.

Future Prospects for Bitcoin Institutions

Questions arise about strategies involving institutions holding significant amounts of Bitcoin (3-4% circulation), hinting at potential developments akin to central banks but focused on cryptocurrency.

The concept of a "Bitcoin version" of the Bank of England is introduced; however, it emphasizes that such an institution would differ fundamentally from traditional banks by focusing on reserve management rather than lending.

Trust and Asset Management

An institute acting as a reserve would accumulate non-euro-denominated assets without engaging in typical banking practices like lending.

Such institutions could foster trust by providing credible backing through substantial holdings of assets like Bitcoin or gold.

Practical Implications for Investors

Direct ownership of Bitcoin poses challenges compared to more traditional assets like gold; however, paper representations backed by these reserves could enhance trust among investors.

Reserve institutions may initially cater to large-scale transactions rather than retail clients, similar to how banks demonstrate solvency through state bonds or corporate debts.

LVMH and Future Financial Instruments

The Role of LVMH in Financial Transactions

Discussion on how current financial practices may shift towards using LVMH receivables as collateral for loans, indicating a trend in leveraging high-value assets.

Speculation about the potential evolution of financial instruments, suggesting that if microstrategy's paper gains security characteristics, it could become a medium of exchange for trusted transactions.

Mention of possible future applications where such financial instruments might be used not only in large-scale transactions but also in retail settings, hinting at broader adoption.

Acknowledgment that these ideas are speculative and reflect ongoing changes in the financial landscape, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding future developments.

Concluding thoughts express gratitude for the discussion while reinforcing the speculative nature of these insights regarding future financial exchanges.