The Biggest Global Risks for 2025 | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

Understanding Global Risks in 2025

Introduction to Current Global Landscape

• The speaker introduces the year 2025, highlighting a snowy January 6th in New York and the return to office life.

• Acknowledges various global issues such as ongoing wars, technological uncertainties, and shifting political landscapes.

Top Risk: Global Leadership Vacuum (g0o)

• Ian Bremmer discusses his annual report on top risks for 2025, identifying a significant risk termed "g0o," which refers to a global leadership vacuum.

• Bremmer explains that this vacuum arises from numerous global challenges without effective leadership, particularly from the United States.

• He argues that while President Trump is unpredictable, he is not the primary risk; rather, he exemplifies the consequences of this leadership void.

Implications of g0o World Disorder

• The U.S. is described as powerful yet uninterested in promoting collective security or democracy globally; its approach has become more transactional.

• Other nations are depicted as weaker and focused on self-preservation rather than taking initiative in global leadership roles.

• This lack of leadership leads to geopolitical instability across various regions including Europe and the Middle East.

Focus on U.S. Political Dynamics

• Discussion shifts to Trump's anticipated return to power and how it may affect international relations moving forward.

• Bremmer notes that Trump’s unpredictability poses risks for other countries trying to navigate their responses effectively.

Consolidation of Power under Trump

• Trump's current political position is stronger due to weakened adversaries and allies needing his support within the Republican Party.

• Concerns arise regarding potential abuses of power as Trump may politicize key government agencies against perceived enemies.

Conclusion: Uncertainty Ahead

Discussion on U.S. Democracy and Trump's Impact

The Threat to Democracy

• The discussion raises the question of whether actions against figures like Elon Musk could also impact Trump, potentially leading to repercussions for the U.S.

• There is a belief that democracy in the U.S. is not under immediate threat, despite ongoing discussions about its state over the past decades.

• The speaker expresses confidence that the U.S. is not on the brink of dictatorship, citing resilience in institutions capable of countering Trump's influence.

Institutional Resilience

• Notable examples include Trump's failed attempt to appoint Matt Gates as Attorney General, indicating institutional pushback against his decisions.

• The presence of an independent judiciary and a professional military are highlighted as crucial elements maintaining democratic integrity.

• A thin Republican majority in the House and more institutionalist members in the Senate contribute to checks on executive power.

Concerns About Corruption

• While acknowledging increasing structural corruption influenced by wealthy special interests, it’s emphasized that this does not equate to imminent collapse of democracy.

• The speaker dismisses fears regarding Trump changing constitutional rules for extended terms, asserting such scenarios are highly unlikely.

Economic Implications of Trump's Policies

Economic Risks Ahead

• The economy was a significant issue during elections; there are concerns about whether Trump can deliver a strong economic performance through his policies.

• Tariffs are identified as a primary tool for achieving economic and national security goals, with potential impacts on both domestic and global economies.

Trade Relations and Immigration Policy

• Deterioration in relations with China is anticipated due to Trump's tariff policies, which may extend to allies facing trade deficits with the U.S.

• Despite initial reports suggesting limited tariffs on allies, Trump’s firm stance indicates broader implications for international trade dynamics.

Labor Market Effects

• Trump's commitment to deporting illegal immigrants could significantly affect labor costs and consumer dynamics within the U.S. economy.

• Estimates suggest he might remove millions over four years; this would lead to increased inflation and fiscal constraints due to reduced tax contributions from these individuals.

Broader Economic Consequences

Trump's Economic Policies and Immigration Challenges

Economic Outlook Under Trump

• Discussion on Trump's intention to reduce regulations, which may benefit sectors like finance, crypto, and fossil fuels. However, the effectiveness of these policies is questioned due to previous regulatory rollbacks being largely exhausted.

• The macroeconomic environment is described as worse than before, with companies trading at higher multiples amidst rising inflation and debt levels. This complicates Trump's ability to enact significant economic changes.

• Concerns are raised that Trump's economic policies could pose a greater downside risk this time around, as he may successfully implement his desired policies without public expectation.

Immigration Policy and Relations with Mexico

• Reflection on the visual impact of family separations during Trump's last presidency raises questions about potential future immigration policies and public response.

• Analysis of Trump's past success in negotiating with Mexico regarding border control through tariffs. The Mexican government responded effectively to pressure during his first term.

• Current challenges in U.S.-Mexico relations are highlighted, including issues related to illegal immigration, the fentanyl crisis, trade deficits, and Chinese goods entering the U.S. via Mexico.

Diplomatic Dynamics

• Lack of strong leadership in U.S.-Mexico relations compared to Trump’s first term is noted; key figures like Robert Lighthizer and Jared Kushner are absent from current negotiations.

• The relationship dynamics between Trump and Mexican President López Obrador are discussed; their ideological differences may complicate future interactions despite previous rapport.

Advice for Mexican Leadership

• Suggestions for Claudia Sheinbaum (Mexican leader), emphasizing the need for early wins in negotiations with Trump given Mexico's reliance on the U.S. market.

• Recommendations include leveraging Mexico's integration into the U.S. supply chain while managing internal political dynamics within her party for effective governance.

• Emphasis on addressing Chinese influence in Mexico as a strategic move before engaging directly with Trump; concerns over job losses due to Chinese competition are raised.

US-Mexico Relations and the Canadian Influence

Importance of Canada in USMCA Negotiations

• Establishing a strong relationship with Canada's incoming Prime Minister, likely Pierre Poilievre, is crucial for Mexico to avoid being sidelined during USMCA negotiations.

• Historically, NAFTA began as a bilateral agreement between the US and Canada; Mexico's inclusion was a unilateral decision by the US. This precedent raises concerns about future negotiations.

• Mexico currently lacks a solid relationship with Canadian conservatives, which poses risks in upcoming trade discussions.

The Ukraine Conflict: Current Dynamics and Future Prospects

Analyzing Russia's Position and Potential Ceasefire

• The ongoing war in Ukraine has dominated headlines; there are indications that a ceasefire may be on the horizon despite Russia's rogue behavior.

• Previous assessments predicted Ukraine would face partitioning, reflecting growing pressures on Ukrainian leadership to make territorial concessions.

• Trump advocates for a ceasefire but warns that failure to accept his terms could lead to reduced support for Ukraine or increased sanctions on Russia.

Risks Surrounding Ceasefire Negotiations

• Before any ceasefire is formalized, heightened risks exist due to Ukrainian desperation for leverage, leading to aggressive military actions against Russian targets.

• Both sides continue military preparations even amidst talks of peace; this includes Ukrainian offensives and Russian missile strikes targeting civilian infrastructure.

Long-term Implications of the Conflict

Ongoing Tensions Post-Ceasefire

• A potential ceasefire does not equate to a negotiated settlement; both nations will remain armed and prepared for further conflict.

• Sanctions against Russia are expected to persist as Western nations aim to use frozen assets for rebuilding efforts in Ukraine, which remains unacceptable to Moscow.

Global Stability Concerns

• Russia’s alliances with North Korea and Iran contribute significantly to global instability; these nations engage in various forms of aggression against NATO allies.

The Role of U.S. Leadership in Global Affairs

Power Dynamics Under Different Administrations

• Trump's unilateral approach suggests that while the U.S. retains significant power, it operates independently rather than coordinating closely with NATO allies.

• Biden successfully unified NATO policy regarding support for Ukraine but faced challenges in negotiating peace effectively compared to Trump's more direct style.

Consequences of U.S. Withdrawal from Conflicts

US Foreign Policy: A Shift Towards Transactionalism?

The Unilateral Nature of US Power

• The discussion highlights a shift in the United States' approach to international relations, moving from collaborative alliances to a more unilateral and self-focused stance.

American Exceptionalism vs. Globalism

• The speaker contrasts traditional American exceptionalism and globalism with the current trend of transactional diplomacy, indicating a departure from multilateral support for global rule of law.

China's Role in Global Institutions

• There is an expectation that China should adhere to established global rules as a responsible stakeholder; however, this has not materialized as anticipated.

Decline of Multilateral Support

• The US appears to be distancing itself from multilateral institutions like the UN, suggesting potential withdrawal or reduced financial support under the current administration.

• This shift indicates a focus on national priorities over collective international responsibilities, marking a significant change in the global order.

Geopolitical Landscape: Iran's Weakening Position

• The conversation transitions to Iran's geopolitical status, noting its perceived weakening amidst ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

Current Risks Associated with Iran

• Iran is identified as a major risk factor in the Middle East due to its diminished influence and internal challenges compared to previous years.

• Israel's military dominance is highlighted as a key factor influencing regional conflicts, particularly against Iranian interests.

Domestic Challenges within Iran

• Economic struggles and domestic unrest are emphasized as critical issues facing Iran today, drawing parallels with historical moments of crisis like that of the Soviet Union in 1989.

Potential for Conflict or Negotiation

• Speculation arises regarding how the incoming Trump administration might handle relations with Iran—whether through increased pressure or attempts at negotiation leading potentially towards confrontation.

AI Regulation and Its Challenges

Current State of AI Regulation

• The speaker highlights the slow progress in AI regulation compared to rapid technological advancements, indicating a significant gap between development and oversight.

• Existing regulations are eroding, with the UK aiming to maintain competitiveness through initiatives like the annual AI safety summit, now rebranded as the AI action summit.

• The U.S. is likely to retract its executive order on AI dialogue with China, which was intended to mitigate risks similar to those seen during the Cold War.

Risks Associated with Unregulated AI

• The speaker expresses concern that current regulatory efforts are insufficient against the backdrop of fast-paced technological growth and potential misuse by bad actors.

• An example is given regarding Meta's open-source LLaMA chatbot being re-engineered for harmful purposes, illustrating real dangers posed by unregulated access to powerful technologies.

Consequences of Inadequate Regulation

• The lack of a robust regulatory framework means society may only recognize failures after they occur, leading to potentially catastrophic outcomes before any serious action is taken.

Looking Ahead: Opportunities Amidst Challenges

Bright Spots in Technology

• Despite geopolitical tensions, advancements in technology—particularly in sustainable energy and AI—are viewed positively; these innovations promise transformative impacts on various sectors.

• The speaker notes that even if political support wanes for climate initiatives, market forces will drive a transition towards carbon-neutral technologies faster than anticipated.

Future Prospects for Sustainable Energy

• There is optimism about achieving sustainable and affordable energy solutions within 20 to 30 years due to decreasing costs associated with new technologies.

Role of Data in Improvement

• Enhanced data collection through AI will enable better management of resources globally, allowing for improved efficiency and waste reduction.

Geopolitical Stability Factors

Discussion on U.S.-Europe Relations and Global Politics

Coordination Between Europe and the U.S.

• The potential for a tariff war between Europeans and Americans is acknowledged, but there is optimism about closer policy coordination regarding China.

• While some issues like Iran and the Russia conflict may remain unresolved, successful cooperation in other areas could yield significant benefits for both parties.

Perspectives on European Strength

• A strong Europe is viewed as beneficial for the United States, contrary to Trump's belief that it poses a threat; this strength contributes to global stability.

• Despite economic challenges, political cohesion in Europe is expected to strengthen by 2025, with leaders committed to security and collaboration.

Future of European Leadership

• Key figures such as Mark Rutte (NATO), Ursula von der Leyen (EU), and others are seen as capable leaders driving foreign policy effectively.

• Upcoming elections in Germany are anticipated to result in a center-right government that will align closely with other European leaders.

Conclusion of Discussion

• Current European leadership is expected to maintain coherence in foreign policy until at least 2027, despite challenges faced by individual leaders like Macron.