Jacques Baud : “Le renseignement est un outil de propagande sur l’Ukraine”

Introduction

The former Swiss intelligence colonel is asked to give his opinion on the activity and relevance of Western intelligence services since the beginning of the war.

Changing Use of Intelligence by Western States

The purpose of intelligence is to guide decision-making by providing a factual image of events. However, there has been a change in how Western states use intelligence. Instead of using it to inform decisions, they use it to validate their own narratives.

• Intelligence should present events without interference and analyze them based on facts.

• There are two speeds at which intelligence operates: one where people think about events and analyze them, and another where intelligence is used to validate a narrative.

• Politicians may decide without input from or circumvent the role of intelligence services.

• Military officials seem to be the only ones presenting realistic views on what's happening on the ground.

Phenomenon in Conflict

Military officials seem to be more realistic than politicians when presenting views on what's happening on the ground during conflicts.

• Politicians tend not to present realistic views on what's happening during conflicts.

• General Milley seems particularly good at presenting realistic views.

Les militaires allemands et leur avantage

Cette section parle des avantages que les militaires ont en matière de compréhension de la guerre et de ses implications.

Avantages des militaires

• Les militaires ont une analyse factuelle des choses, car ils sont formés pour comprendre la guerre et connaissent les implications des décisions.

• Contrairement aux politiques, les militaires ne sont pas attachés au dogme mais plutôt à l'objectif qu'ils cherchent à atteindre.

• Il y a une absence de lien entre la décision politique et l'objectif recherché. Peu de réflexion est faite sur ce qu'on cherche à atteindre dans le conflit.

• L'effondrement de la Russie était l'objectif principal dès le début du conflit selon une stratégie américaine établie en 2019.

Objectifs précis du conflit

Cette section parle des objectifs précis du conflit, notamment l'effondrement de la Russie.

Objectifs précis

• L'objectif principal du conflit est d'obtenir l'effondrement de la Russie pour que celle-ci ne représente plus un risque pour l'OTAN.

• Selon Alexia Restovic, conseiller de Zelinski, il doit y avoir une guerre entre l'Ukraine et la Russie pour que cette dernière n'existe plus.

• Le but est que l'Ukraine puisse faire partie de l'OTAN sans risque d'article 5.

Conclusion

Cette section conclut la vidéo en résumant les objectifs précis du conflit.

Conclusions

• L'objectif principal du conflit est d'obtenir l'effondrement de la Russie pour que celle-ci ne représente plus un risque pour l'OTAN.

• Pour atteindre cet objectif, il doit y avoir une guerre entre l'Ukraine et la Russie pour que cette dernière n'existe plus.

• Le but est que l'Ukraine puisse faire partie de l'OTAN sans risque d'article 5.

Introduction

The speaker discusses the sanctions imposed on Russia and how they were intended to cause an economic collapse. However, the Russian economy and society reacted better than expected, leading to a failure of the objective.

Sanctions on Russia

• The sanctions were intended to cause an economic collapse in Russia.

• The Russian economy and society reacted better than expected.

• The objective of causing an economic collapse failed.

Reaction of Russians

The speaker discusses how the Russians reacted to the sanctions imposed on them by Western countries.

Russian Reaction

• The Russians reacted well to the sanctions.

• They did not expect such a reaction from the Russians.

• Efforts are still being made to provoke regime change in Russia.

Reconquest of Dombas and Crimea

The speaker discusses efforts being made by both Ukraine and Russia to reconquer territories that they have lost control over.

Ukrainian Efforts

• Ukraine is attempting to reconquer Dombas and Crimea.

• Military leaders doubt that this will be successful.

Russian Efforts

• Vladimir Putin calculated that he could quickly take Kiev but was mistaken.

• Russian military objectives included demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine.

• Mario Paul was considered a hotbed for Azov, which had committed crimes against Russians in 2014.

Introduction

The speaker talks about the impact of World War II on different countries and how it affects their perception of war.

Impact of WWII on Different Countries

• Europeans tend to ignore the impact of WWII because they did not suffer as much as the Russians.

• Russians suffered significant losses during WWII, which is still a terrible wound in their society.

• During Victory Day parade, Russian and Soviet flags are displayed to commemorate their victory.

• There is controversy surrounding a photo that shows a soldier holding two watches while planting a flag. Stalin removed this anecdote because it portrayed Russian soldiers as looters.

Démonétarisation

The speaker discusses the demilitarization operation carried out by Russia in Ukraine.

Demilitarization Operation in Ukraine

• The demilitarization operation was carried out due to the threat posed to populations in Tomb Basse.

• Russia attacked Ukraine with forces that were significantly less than Ukrainian forces.

• To prevent Ukrainian troops from reinforcing Dombas, Russia attacked on multiple fronts, shaping the battlefield according to NATO's definition.

• All Western Ukrainian troops were fixed on potential threats to Kyiv, allowing Russian troops to penetrate further into Ukraine.

Coordination Issues

The speaker talks about coordination issues faced by Russian forces during the attack on Ukraine.

Coordination Issues Faced by Russian Forces

• There were three distinct entities involved in the attack: Russian troops, Republic of Donetsk troops, and Republic of Luhansk troops.

• The command structure was not unified but coordinated at the level of the general staff of Russia.

• Coordination is more complicated than having a unified force because there are multiple commands that need to communicate instead of one command distributing orders among them.

• This lack of coordination was a weakness that the Russians knew about, which is why they never tried to attack Kyiv directly.

Zelinski's Election

The speaker discusses the election of Zelinski and its impact on Russian-Ukrainian relations.

Impact of Zelinski's Election

• Zelinski sought to open dialogue with Russia.

• The Russians could have thought that his election would lead to a resolution of the conflict.

• There is no factual evidence that Russia wanted to change the regime in Ukraine or attempted to do so.

• Poroshenko was anti-Russian, but Zelinski was more compatible with Russia.

Zelensky and the Extreme Right

In this section, the speaker discusses how Zelensky has been held hostage by the extreme right in Ukraine. The Russians may not have an interest in eliminating him because his removal could lead to a more extreme right-wing government coming into power.

Zelensky Held Hostage by Extreme Right

• Zelensky's plan to take down a tree on Kiev's largest avenue was reported in Ukrainian newspapers, indicating that he is being held hostage by the extreme right.

• If Zelensky were eliminated, it could lead to even more extreme right-wing individuals coming into power.

• The speaker notes that history has shown that regime changes brought about by Western strategies rarely result in positive outcomes.

NATO's Role in Ukraine Conflict

In this section, the speaker discusses NATO's role in the conflict in Ukraine and explains how it differs from other organizations like the European Union.

Differences Between NATO and EU

• The speaker notes that while the European Union is made up of 30 countries who are all equal partners, NATO is different.

• NATO was created as an alliance for certain countries to seek protection under US nuclear weapons.

• While some argue that NATO is a defensive alliance, its primary purpose is to offer nuclear protection from the United States.

• The speaker worked at NATO for five years and notes that without question, the United States is the conductor of this orchestra.

OTAN: An Alliance Nuclear?

In this section, the speaker continues discussing NATO and its nature as an alliance with nuclear capabilities.

OTAN: An Alliance Nuclear?

• The finality of NATO is the protection offered by the United States' nuclear weapons.

• The speaker notes that this raises questions about the use of nuclear weapons in Europe.

• While France has its own nuclear capabilities, it tends to exclude other partners or competitors in its discourse.

• The speaker worked on fighting against the proliferation of small arms and was heavily involved in the Ukrainian conflict in 2014.

The Role of NATO in the Ukraine Crisis

In this section, the speaker discusses the role of NATO in the Ukraine crisis and how it could have played a more active role in moderating the situation.

NATO's Active Support for Ukraine

• Many countries, including Slovakia, actively support Ukraine.

• Some countries are recalcitrant but can still be engaged in combat for Ukraine.

• NATO is not really involved in the crisis as an alliance.

• However, it could play a moderating role through its Partnership for Peace or Euro-Atlantic Partnership organizations.

The Role of Dialogue

• The Partnership for Peace is a forum for dialogue that includes Russia and Switzerland.

• It could have been used to maintain a platform for dialogue instead of expelling Russians from Brussels.

• Western countries have closed the door on dialogue with Russia due to their initial objective of collapsing Russia.

Switzerland's Neutrality

• Switzerland has traditionally played a mediating role between conflicting parties such as Iran and the US or Cuba and the US.

• However, when looking for partners to initiate dialogue with Russia, Switzerland only found China, Israel, and Turkey willing to participate.

• Despite being neutral, Switzerland has some of the strictest sanctions against Russia.

Discordant Voices within NATO

In this section, the speaker talks about discordant voices within NATO regarding Hungary's reluctance to support Ukraine.

Hungary's Reticence towards Ukraine

• Hungary has reservations about supporting Ukraine due to how Ukrainian Magyar minorities have been treated by Ukrainians.

• Recently there have been reports of atrocities committed by Ukrainians against Hungarians living in Ukraine.

Discordant Voices within NATO

• There are also discordant voices within NATO regarding Hungary's stance towards Ukraine.

• While some criticize Orban's leadership style, others have more objective reasons for supporting Hungary's reluctance to support Ukraine.

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The Holodomor and Perceptions of History

In this section, the speaker discusses the Holodomor, a famine that occurred in Ukraine during the Soviet era. They explain that while there is debate over whether it was intentional or not, Ukrainians perceive it as a deliberate act of genocide.

The Perception of the Holodomor

• Ukrainians perceive the Holodomor as a deliberate act of genocide.

• The perception is supported by monuments and historical records.

• The famine was orchestrated by the NKVD, which was led by Jews at the time. This has led to an association between Jews and Soviets in Ukrainian perceptions.

• Perception plays a significant role in how events are remembered and acted upon.

Moving on from Historical Events

In this section, the speaker discusses how societies move on from historical events such as wars and conflicts.

Moving On from Historical Events

• Societies can move on from historical events even after many years have passed.

• The quality of Ukrainian troops has improved since 2014 due to support from NATO countries like Germany.

• NATO's involvement in Ukraine helped rebuild its army after 2014 when there was political unrest and division within the country.

Les unités russophones de l'armée ukrainienne ont changé de camp

In this section, the speaker discusses how the Russian-speaking units of the Ukrainian army changed sides during the conflict in Crimea and Donbass.

Units switched sides

• The Russian-speaking units of the Ukrainian army did not want to fight against their fellow Russians.

• As a result, these units switched sides with their weapons and equipment.

• According to a Ukrainian parliamentarian, out of 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers deployed in Crimea, 20,000 switched sides to join the Russian-speaking forces.

• This is why they were called "little green men" - because they had no insignia.

Internal problems within the Ukrainian army

In this section, the speaker talks about internal problems within the Ukrainian army during the conflict in Donbass.

Deaths among Ukrainian soldiers

• Out of approximately 14,000 casualties in Donbass, around 4,000 were Ukrainian soldiers.

• However, out of those 4,000 soldiers who died:

• Around 2,700 died for reasons other than combat (e.g. accidents or drug use).

• Many others committed suicide or fought each other due to internal conflicts.

Treatment of linguistic minorities in Ukraine

In this section, the speaker discusses how linguistic minorities have been treated in Ukraine since Maidan.

Suppression of minority languages

• Although Russian was never officially banned as a language in Ukraine, it was no longer recognized as an official language after Maidan.

• This also affected other linguistic minorities in Ukraine, such as Hungarians and Romanians.

• The Romanian and Hungarian governments have filed complaints with the Council of Europe regarding the treatment of their respective minority communities in Ukraine.

The Ukraine Crisis

This section discusses the economic problems in Ukraine and how it led to a proposal by Russia for a tripartite mechanism to address the issue of Ukraine's association with the European Union.

Economic Problems in Ukraine

• The Ukrainian economy was struggling, and this was detected by Ukrainian authorities.

• The country's GDP was lower than it was in 1990, and corruption was rampant.

• Ukrainians had legitimate expectations from the European Union due to subsidies given to them.

Proposal for Tripartite Mechanism

• Russia proposed a tripartite mechanism that would respect everyone's interests regarding Ukraine's association with the EU.

• However, Manuel José Barroso refused this proposal because he foresaw similar problems as those faced by Northern Ireland after Brexit.

• The Ukrainian government decided not to sign immediately but wanted to study modalities better.

Protests and American Intervention

• Ukrainians took to the streets in protest when the decision was made to postpone signing a treaty with the EU.

• Americans saw an opportunity and played their cards right, leading to violent protests that transformed into a coup d'état.

• Leaked phone conversations revealed that Russian forces were involved in instigating violence during these protests.

Background on the Conflict in Ukraine

The conflict in Ukraine began with the 2014 coup d'état, which was initially popular but ultimately illegitimate. Violent elements were necessary to achieve this coup, and ultra-nationalist groups like Azov were brought in to compensate for the lack of combativeness in the Ukrainian army.

The Illegitimacy of the Coup

• The 2014 coup d'état was initially popular but ultimately illegitimate.

• Violent elements were necessary to achieve this coup.

• Ultra-nationalist groups like Azov were brought in to compensate for the lack of combativeness in the Ukrainian army.

Creation of Ultra-Nationalist Groups

• Azov is an ultra-nationalist group that is anti-everything that is not Ukrainian.

• These units were created after 2014 to compensate for problems within the Ukrainian army.

• These units are extremely politicized and extreme right-wing, committing acts that are not officially recognized by the Ukrainian government.

Armies Parallel to Official Forces

There are armies parallel to official forces that are highly politicized and extreme right-wing. They commit acts that are not officially recognized by the Ukrainian government.

Armies Parallel to Official Forces

• The Regiment Azov is actually something much larger than a regiment; it has become a considerable force with many parallel armies.

• One example is the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, which is practically a parallel army led by Dmitry Yarosh.

• These armies are extremely politicized and extreme right-wing, committing acts that are not officially recognized by the Ukrainian government.

Polarization of Ukraine

The situation in Ukraine has become highly polarized since 2014, with many Ukrainians feeling uncomfortable with the current state of affairs.

Polarization of Ukraine

• Many Ukrainians had no animosity towards Russians before 2014.

• The situation created by 2014 has polarized Ukrainians to such an extent that many on both sides feel uncomfortable with the current state of affairs.

Les groupes d'extrême droite européens combattant en Ukraine

In this section, the speaker discusses the presence of far-right European groups fighting in Ukraine and their ideology.

Far-right European groups fighting in Ukraine

• The speaker notes that there are far-right European groups fighting in Ukraine.

• These groups are not motivated by support for Ukraine as a country but rather by their extremist ideology.

• The speaker explains that these paramilitary units have a white and Christian Europe in mind, similar to Hitler's vision.

• The speaker emphasizes that these groups do not want to be part of the EU but rather an "Hitlerian" Europe.

Poutine et l'intervention russe en Ukraine

In this section, the speaker discusses why Putin intervened in Ukraine and how it relates to the failure of diplomatic efforts.

Reasons for Russian intervention

• The speaker argues that Putin did not intervene in Ukraine to occupy it but rather to force the implementation of agreements made between Russia and Ukraine.

• If diplomatic efforts had been successful, there would have been no need for Russian intervention.

Western involvement in supplying heavy weapons to Ukraine

In this section, the speaker discusses Western involvement in supplying heavy weapons such as tanks to Ukraine.

Supplying heavy weapons

• The decision to supply tanks was made quickly after an interview given by Ukrainian President Poroshenko on December 15th where he stated that he needed 300 combat tanks and 600 combat vehicles.

• The Germans initially said they needed to consult with the Americans before making a decision.

• Within a month and a half, the decision was made to supply tanks.

The Situation in Ukraine

In this section, the speaker discusses the situation in Ukraine and how it has evolved over time. They talk about the fall of Solidar, the offensive by Russian forces, and the impact of these events on Ukrainian morale.

The Beginning of Escalation

• Zellens' return to Ukraine marked a turning point as they saw that Solidar had fallen and Barmouth was being seriously circled.

• Points that were not major cities but were important for defense became targets for Russian forces.

• As a result of these events, there were resignations from Ukrainian officials due to corruption allegations.

Western Response

• The West saw this as an alarm signal and realized that something needed to be done to restore confidence in Zellinski's leadership.

• Charges were brought against those accused of corruption, which helped to restore some legitimacy to Zellinski's government.

• However, despite these efforts, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to win this war given the sheer difference in military strength between them and Russia.

Military Strength

• At the beginning of the war, Ukraine had around 1000 battle tanks while Russia had over 2100.

• Despite receiving additional tanks from Western countries (600), it is still unlikely that Ukraine will be able to hold its ground against Russia.

• There is simply a problem with mass criticality when comparing the size of their armies.

Insoluble Equation

• It is impossible for Ukraine to win this war given the current situation.

• The events in Harkhov and the Carson in September and October of last year showed that Ukraine was only able to take these territories because Russia had evacuated them for their own reasons.

• The integration of these republics would have modified the structures of command, which is why Russia evacuated them.

Restructuring

• There were three independent Russian forces that needed coordination, which was done through the appointment of a coordinator by the General Staff.

• This restructuring allowed for better coordination between Russian forces.

Restructuring the Chain of Command

In this section, the speaker discusses the importance of restructuring the chain of command in order to avoid catastrophe. They mention that it is impossible to conduct large-scale operations while simultaneously reorganizing the chain of command. The media has ignored this aspect and focused only on military operations.

Importance of Restructuring

• It is important to restructure the chain of command to avoid catastrophe.

• Consolidation should be done where there is strength, such as using Harrelson as a natural border.

• 300,000 reservists were brought in with prior training to help with restructuring.

• Tasks and commands were better distributed with a new structure of commandment.

Media Ignorance

• The media has ignored the importance of restructuring and focused solely on military operations.

• Generals who speak on certain channels lack perspective on chain of command issues.

• There has been no analysis from a chain-of-command perspective in French-speaking media.

Victories and Losses in Kerson

This section discusses how Ukraine's victory in Kerson was more so a media victory than an actual one. The Russians had no intention of fighting but rather aimed to destroy Ukrainian potential.

Victory for Ukraine?

• Ukraine's victory in Kerson was more so a media victory than an actual one.

• Ukrainians faced attacks on their electrical grid despite Russian withdrawal from Kerson.

• Ukrainians evacuated Kerson due to the artillery fire from the Russians.

• Ukrainians faced significant losses due to Russian artillery fire despite no actual battle.

Russian Intentions

• The Russians had no intention of fighting but rather aimed to destroy Ukrainian potential.

• The goal was demilitarization, not taking territories.

• By fueling the conflict, the West is pushing military personnel into harm's way.

Conclusion

In this final section, the speaker concludes the interview and thanks the audience for listening.

• The speaker expresses gratitude to the listeners of Omerta.

• The speaker describes the analysis as fascinating.

• The speaker thanks the audience and invites them to join for another interview in the future.