Historia del Neoliberalismo en México - Enrique Peña Nieto (15/08/2024)

The Legacy of Enrique Peña Nieto's Presidency

Introduction to the Presidency

• The speaker expresses emotional commitment and responsibility in assuming the presidency, highlighting a significant shift from previous administrations.

• Critiques the neoliberal model under Peña Nieto, stating that despite extensive reforms, promises of growth and welfare were unfulfilled.

Failures of Neoliberal Policies

• Describes Peña Nieto's term as a continuation of the "long night" of neoliberalism initiated by former president Miguel de la Madrid.

• Emphasizes Peña Nieto's oath to uphold the Constitution while noting his administration’s ties with economic elites and media influence.

Political Strategy and Alliances

• Discusses how Peña Nieto negotiated directly with party leaders rather than legislators due to lack of PRI majority.

• Highlights López Obrador's departure from PRD as a strategic advantage for Peña Nieto, allowing him to push through reforms without opposition.

Pacto por México and Structural Reforms

• The signing of the "Pacto por México" among major political parties aimed at overcoming differences to implement long-awaited structural reforms.

• Over 20 months, 14 reforms were passed; however, their effectiveness varied significantly.

Transparency and Anti-Corruption Efforts

• The transparency reform granted autonomy to the Federal Institute for Access to Information (IFAI), while anti-corruption measures established constitutional bases for accountability.

• Despite these efforts, both reforms are criticized as ineffective due to lack of political will and resources.

Corruption During Peña Nieto's Term

• Consensus exists that Peña Nieto’s presidency was one of Mexico’s most corrupt periods; corruption index dropped significantly during his term.

Mixed Results from Economic Reforms

• Labor reform aimed at flexibility in hiring but resulted in fewer jobs than promised alongside increased employer abuses.

• Tax reform successfully added millions of new taxpayers but primarily funded external debt rather than public services.

Financial Sector Changes

• Financial reform encouraged more credit offerings but failed to address high banking fees detrimental to consumers' economies.

Telecommunications Reform Outcomes

• Telecommunications reform led to new TV networks and reduced service costs but did not dismantle Carlos Slim’s monopolies in fixed-line and mobile sectors.

Reformas y su Impacto en México

Promesas de Reformas Estructurales

• Las reformas prometieron abaratar los precios de gasolina, gas y energía eléctrica, siendo vistas como la principal palanca para el desarrollo nacional.

• Sin embargo, estas promesas se encontraron con la dura realidad cuando grandes empresas petroleras internacionales tomaron control de yacimientos estratégicos.

Aumento del Combustible y Protestas

• En enero de 2017, el gobierno autorizó un aumento drástico en los precios del combustible, conocido como "gasolinazo", lo que provocó protestas a nivel nacional.

• Este episodio afectó negativamente la popularidad del presidente Peña Nieto, quien no logró cumplir con las expectativas económicas.

Desempeño Económico Mediocre

• Durante su mandato, el crecimiento económico anual fue solo del 2.4%, muy por debajo del 5% prometido.

• La deuda pública aumentó significativamente, pasando del 33.8% al 46.4% del PIB entre 2012 y 2018.

Inversión Pública y Devaluación Monetaria

• A pesar de contar con más créditos externos e ingresos tributarios, la inversión pública cayó un 24.5%.

• El peso mexicano sufrió una depreciación severa durante este periodo, pasando de 12.92 a 20.26 pesos por dólar.

Empleo y Desigualdad

• Aunque se reportaron la creación de cuatro millones de empleos y una tasa de desempleo reducida al 4%, muchos trabajos eran mal remunerados.

• La desigualdad aumentó dramáticamente; en 2014, el 10% más rico concentraba el 64.4% de la riqueza nacional.

Corrupción en el Gobierno

• La corrupción se convirtió en un problema significativo bajo su administración; escándalos como la Casa Blanca dañaron gravemente su credibilidad.

• A pesar de las disculpas públicas por sus errores relacionados con estos escándalos, su popularidad continuó cayendo drásticamente.

Escándalos Adicionales

• En noviembre de 2014 surgió gran indignación por la Casa Blanca; esto llevó a una caída notable en su aceptación pública.

• Investigaciones posteriores revelaron desvíos masivos de recursos públicos mediante redes complejas que involucraban múltiples funcionarios gubernamentales.

Conclusiones sobre Corrupción Empresarial

• La empresa Odebrecht estuvo implicada en sobornos a altos funcionarios para obtener contratos durante los gobiernos anteriores.

The Legacy of Violence and Political Turmoil in Mexico

Governmental Corruption and Violence

• The widespread governmental corruption was exacerbated by allegations of public resource diversion involving PRI governors from Chihuahua, Veracruz, and Quintana Roo.

• Felipe Calderón's administration left a legacy of criminal violence that burdened Peña Nieto's government; despite promises to change security strategies, the same force-centric policies continued.

• Peña Nieto's media highlight was the capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, which ultimately became a symbol of his administration's failures after Guzmán escaped from prison.

Escalation of Crime Rates

• The case of the 43 missing students in Iguala drew national and international attention, highlighting police collusion with organized crime during their abduction.

• Investigations revealed incompetence and political unwillingness to address the incident thoroughly; it was concluded that the students were murdered by drug traffickers.

Controversial Investigations

• A comprehensive investigation included numerous confessions and forensic analyses leading to a controversial conclusion about the fate of the missing students.

• This official narrative faced rejection from victims' families due to insufficient evidence supporting claims made by authorities regarding military involvement.

Political Consequences for Peña Nieto

• Peña Nieto’s presidency suffered as his party lost ground in midterm elections; new political movements emerged, notably led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO).

• Alliances between Peña’s party (PRI), PRD, and PAN began to fracture over issues like energy reform and military support for AMLO’s movement.

International Relations Strain

• Donald Trump's election campaign included anti-Mexican rhetoric, promising to build a wall against illegal immigration which strained U.S.-Mexico relations.

• Peña Nieto faced backlash for inviting Trump to Mexico City, resulting in criticism domestically and internationally.

Economic Challenges Post-Peña Nieto

• Following López Obrador's electoral victory in 2018, economic challenges persisted due to previous administrations’ policies that favored privatization but resulted in inequality.

• López Obrador won decisively with over 53% of votes while his party gained significant legislative power compared to PRI’s minimal representation.

Conclusion: Shifts in Mexican Politics

• AMLO’s rise marked a significant shift away from neoliberal policies that had dominated Mexican politics for decades under previous administrations.

Neoliberalism and Political Alliances

The Alliance of Political Class and Economic Oligarchy

• Neoliberalism was characterized by a sordid alliance between the political class, economic oligarchy, and powerful entities to maintain their privileges.

• This pact began to unravel at the end of 2018, indicating a shift in the political landscape.

• Despite this rupture, the neoliberal model has deep-rooted origins that continue to influence current dynamics.

Possibilities for Transformation