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2023 ICT Mentorship - Opening Range Gap Repricing Macro
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2023 ICT Mentorship - Opening Range Gap Repricing Macro

Introduction and Thunderstorm Warning

The speaker welcomes the audience and mentions that there is a thunderstorm happening, so they will try to go through the content quickly.

Market Review Recommendation

The speaker advises the audience to refer to the market review from June 23rd, 2023 for more detailed information. They mention that the presentation will primarily focus on ES (E-mini S&P 500 futures).

Weekly Candlestick Chart Analysis

The speaker discusses how they had forecasted certain movements in the market before it actually happened. They mention filling in the fair value guide on a weekly candlestick chart and highlight both sell-side and buy-side inefficiencies.

Tweet Analysis and Preference for Lower Fair Value Gap

The speaker shares a tweet from June 23rd, 2023, where they express a preference for the lower fair value gap on ES. They explain that this preference also applies to NASDAQ.

Target Price Levels for ES

The speaker shows a slide from their market review presentation, indicating target price levels for ES. They mention drawing down into around 43,69-43,70.

Confirmation of Trading Down into Target Price Level

The speaker presents an hourly chart showing today's mark-to-market price delivery, confirming that the market did trade down into the target price level mentioned earlier.

Inefficiency Area and Potential Market Movement

The speaker explains the concept of an inefficiency area due to a sell-side imbalance. They mention that the market is likely to draw back up into this area with buy-side delivery, indicating upward motion.

Use of New Week Opening Gap and Price Repricing

The speaker points out the use of the new week opening gap and how the market initially ran up to take the buy side but then repriced down.

Five Minute Chart Analysis

The speaker analyzes a five-minute chart, highlighting the New York opening price and subsequent market rallies. They explain their selection of specific highs for buy-side liquidity pool analysis.

Importance of Liquidity Analysis

The speaker emphasizes the importance of liquidity analysis in trading decisions. They refer to a lecture from last week where they taught how to find setups that serve traders for life.

Due to limitations on bullet point length, some details may have been omitted or condensed. Please refer to the original transcript for complete information.

Trading Strategy Explanation

In this section, the speaker explains a trading strategy and provides specific price levels to watch for.

Trading Strategy Details

  • The speaker mentioned on Friday morning that they would be trading at or just below $43.70.
  • This strategy is based on a "Judas swing," which is a false run designed to get people to chase it.
  • The specific price level mentioned is a supply and demand zone, not based on harmonic patterns or other technical analysis methods.
  • The market opened with a gap on Monday, and the speaker highlighted specific levels where buy-side and sell-side liquidity were present.
  • The highest probability short entries are expected to occur at the New York opening price, rather than at a specific time.

Opening Range Gap Explanation

In this section, the speaker explains the concept of an opening range gap and how it can be utilized in trading.

Opening Range Gap Definition

  • An opening range gap refers to the difference between the closing price on Friday and the opening price on Monday.
  • If Monday's opening price is lower than Friday's closing price, it is called an opening range gap lower. If it is higher, it is called an opening range gap higher.
  • Opening range gaps can be used as significant levels in trading strategies.

Utilizing Opening Range Gap in Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses how to utilize the opening range gap in trading using different order blocks.

Utilizing Opening Range Gap

  • The midpoint of an opening range gap can be considered as consequent encroachment or mean threshold depending on its context.
  • Gaps or wicks within an order block can also have their midpoints utilized as significant levels for trading decisions.

Applying Opening Range Gap to Trading

In this section, the speaker demonstrates how to apply the concept of opening range gap to a one-minute chart.

Applying Opening Range Gap

  • The speaker shows an example on a one-minute chart and highlights a rally that occurs at 9:30 AM.
  • The market rallies above the New York midnight opening price, indicating potential short opportunities.
  • A fair value gap is observed, which can be used as an entry point with appropriate stop loss placement.

The transcript provided does not cover the entire video.

New Section

The speaker discusses the price movement and gaps in the market, explaining their strategy for placing stop losses and entering trades based on fair value gaps.

Price Movement and Fair Value Gaps

  • The speaker mentions two gaps in the market, one shaded in yellow and another one.
  • They measure the range from a candle's low to a candle's high and place their stop loss just above that level.
  • When there are two gaps, they factor in the higher gap to determine how far they are willing to tolerate drawdown.
  • The shift in market structure indicates that even though the price didn't reach a certain low, they still entered a trade based on fair value gaps.

New Section

The speaker explains their approach of using fair value gaps and imbalances to anticipate price movements towards opening range gaps.

Using Fair Value Gaps and Imbalances

  • The speaker uses fair value gaps as an indication of repricing macro.
  • They look for opportunities to trade towards the opening range gap entry into a discount.
  • An imbalance is used as an additional confirmation for entering trades below the new week opening.

New Section

The speaker discusses taking short positions based on liquidity patterns during different trading sessions.

Liquidity Patterns and Short Positions

  • Liquidity from both London session buy side and Friday's New York session buy side are considered important factors for taking short positions.
  • An additional pyramid entry is mentioned as a possible strategy when prices drop back into fair value gaps.
  • The speaker highlights that following their previous prediction at 9 o'clock in the morning would have resulted in successful short trades.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes the profitability of following their trading strategies by taking short positions on both NASDAQ and ES.

Profitability of Trading Strategies

  • The speaker mentions that following their strategies would have resulted in a significant increase in a funded or live account.
  • Taking short positions on both NASDAQ and ES could have yielded a profit of $16,000 without the full price run.

The transcript is already in English, so there is no need to translate it.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of reaching up into a shaded area and why it may be advantageous for certain traders to take advantage of the seed price.

Reaching Up into Shaded Area

  • The speaker explains that there is a high and an opening range gap in the market.
  • It makes sense for the price to reach up into half of the shaded area.
  • This strategy can be advantageous for traders who are better equipped to make a trade at that level.

New Section

In this section, the speaker talks about how smart money can wait for the algorithm to reprice back up into half of the shaded area or just above relative equal highs.

Smart Money Strategy

  • Traders who anticipate that the price will go down can wait for the algorithm to reprice back up into half of the shaded area or slightly above relative equal highs.
  • By doing so, they can take advantage of quick movements towards their target levels.

New Section

Here, the speaker mentions a specific algorithmic trading strategy that runs from 3:15 PM to 3:45 PM.

Algorithmic Trading Strategy

  • The speaker refers to a specific algorithmic trading strategy called "the 3:15 PM to 3:45 PM Market on Close algorithm."
  • This strategy involves running towards a target level mentioned earlier in Friday's morning session.

New Section

The speaker emphasizes attacking opposing side sell-side liquidity during lunch hour as part of their trading approach.

Attacking Opposing Side Liquidity

  • The speaker highlights their approach of attacking opposing side sell-side liquidity during lunch hour.
  • They encourage viewers to watch their previous trade setup video for a better understanding of this strategy.

New Section

The speaker addresses the common request from people to learn about liquidity and predicting market movements.

Importance of Understanding Liquidity

  • Many individuals have asked the speaker to teach them about liquidity and how to predict market movements.
  • The speaker emphasizes that understanding liquidity is a crucial lesson that can provide endless trading opportunities.

New Section

In this section, the speaker explains the benefits of learning about liquidity and market bias.

Benefits of Learning About Liquidity

  • By understanding liquidity and market bias, traders will never run out of setups or opportunities.
  • They can impress others with their trading results, secure funded accounts, and excel in live trading situations.

New Section

The speaker encourages viewers to study the concepts discussed in the video rather than solely relying on their word.

Encouragement to Study

  • The speaker urges viewers to thoroughly study the concepts presented in the video.
  • They emphasize that studying is essential for gaining a deeper understanding of trading strategies.

New Section

The speaker mentions additional content available outside of YouTube where they share their executions while using music.

Additional Content on Twitter

  • The speaker shares that they post additional content on Twitter, including trade executions accompanied by music.
  • Viewers are encouraged to follow them on Twitter for a different experience beyond YouTube videos.
Video description

Live Executions: https://twitter.com/I_Am_The_ICT/status/1673344154967973888?s=20 Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.