#NoEstimates (Allen Holub)

No Estimates: The Problem with Estimation

In this section, the speaker introduces the topic of "no estimates" and explains that estimation has no value. They aim to convince the audience that estimates are always based on guesswork and are therefore always wrong.

The Flaw in Estimation

• Estimates are based on guesswork and past behavior, but since what is being implemented is new, past measurements do not accurately predict current outcomes. Therefore, estimation is essentially guessing.

• Despite knowing that estimates are unreliable, many people still behave as if they have validity.

• This leads to a dysfunctional situation where everyone relies on something that doesn't work.

Dysfunction Caused by Estimates

• Estimation leads to dysfunction in various ways:

• It results in working excessive hours and irrational schedules, which negatively impact productivity and well-being.

• It prevents achieving a sustainable pace of work, as deadlines lead to long working hours and exhaustion.

• This dysfunction affects project success and overall workshop efficiency.

Misconceptions and Business Impact

• Bosses often treat estimates as fixed commitments, even though they know deep down that estimates are unreliable.

• This misconception leads to business decisions based on false assumptions about project timelines.

• Attempts to address this issue by assigning probabilities or percentages to estimates also fail because people struggle to understand these numbers accurately.

Discussion around No Estimates

In this section, the speaker discusses the origin of the "no estimates" hashtag and emphasizes the importance of having a discussion rather than promoting dogma. They explain how estimation leads to dysfunction and unsustainable work practices.

Woody's Perspective on No Estimates

• Woody introduced the "no estimates" hashtag a few years ago to initiate a discussion about estimation problems.

• The speaker's perspective aligns with Woody's intention for open dialogue rather than enforcing a strict dogma.

Dysfunction and Unsustainable Work Practices

• Estimation leads to dysfunction, including working long hours unnecessarily and having irrational schedules.

• These practices destroy productivity, well-being, and project success.

• Agile principles emphasize the importance of maintaining a continuous and sustainable pace of work, which is undermined by estimation.

The Problem with Bosses and Estimates

In this section, the speaker discusses the dysfunctional relationship between bosses and estimates. They highlight how bosses rely on inaccurate estimates, leading to unrealistic expectations and negative business impacts.

Unrealistic Expectations from Bosses

• When asked about project timelines, programmers often provide wild guesses or "wild ass" estimates.

• However, bosses treat these estimates as fixed commitments without considering their inherent uncertainty.

• This leads to unrealistic expectations and disappointment when projects are not completed within the estimated time frame.

Business Impact of Misconceptions

• Bosses make business decisions based on misconceptions about estimate accuracy.

• Relying on unreliable estimates can have serious consequences for the success of projects and overall business performance.

Attempted Solutions: Probabilities in Estimates

• Steve McConnell proposed assigning probabilities to estimates to address the problem.

• However, people struggle to understand what these probabilities actually mean in practice.

• This approach still involves gambling with uncertain outcomes rather than providing accurate predictions.

Building a Business on Gambling

In this section, the speaker emphasizes that building a business based on estimation is akin to gambling. They express skepticism about relying on uncertain predictions for business success.

Gambling with Uncertain Outcomes

• Estimation is essentially gambling since it involves making uncertain predictions about project timelines.

• Building a business solely based on such uncertain predictions is considered a bad idea by the speaker.

• Personal experiences with losing money in stock markets further reinforce their skepticism towards estimation-based business strategies.

The transcript provided does not contain enough content for additional sections.

The Chaos Report

This section discusses the Chaos Report and the value of estimation in software development.

The Value of Estimation

• Estimation is based on guesswork and has no real value.

• Estimates are always changing and are often incorrect.

• Estimates for bottom stories are particularly unreliable.

• Despite knowing that estimates are bogus, they are still used in planning.

• Time spent on estimation is mostly wasted.

The Problem with Estimation

• Estimates have no real value in software development.

• Estimation can be wasteful and hideously inefficient.

Woody's Programming Scene

• Woody's programming scene highlights the wastefulness of estimation.

The Impact of Estimation on Productivity

This section discusses the negative impact of estimation on productivity and how it leads to dysfunction in work processes.

Estimation Leads to Dysfunction

• Estimating tasks without a clear reason or need is a waste of time and mental energy.

• Working with unrealistic numbers and constantly re-estimating destroys productivity.

• Companies that insist on story point estimates for every item in the backlog create unnecessary burden and drain energy.

Origins of Estimation Dysfunction

• The concept of estimation came from Frederick Taylor's scientific management approach, which focused on assembly line work and meeting deadlines.

• As soon as deadlines were introduced, workers were pushed to work longer hours, leading to dysfunction.

• The "time boss" mentality emerged, where managers used stopwatches to measure performance and improve efficiency.

Dysfunctional Effects of Estimation

• Estimates became wild guesses with no basis in reality, causing more dysfunction in the workflow.

• Lean manufacturing concepts introduced by Taiichi Ohno emphasized empowering workers rather than relying on stopwatch-driven management.

• Empowering workers to make decisions about their work improves productivity and reduces dysfunction caused by estimation.

The Fallacy of Continuous Re-Estimating

This section challenges the idea that continuous re-estimating is necessary for maintaining a steady pace in agile development.

Sustainable Pace vs Continuous Re-Estimating

• Continuous re-estimating assumes that there will always be changes that require adjustments in pace.

• Working at a mentally deranged pace without getting exhausted is not sustainable.

• Putting estimates on every item in the backlog is a waste of time and effort.

The Problem with Deadlines

• Deadlines create pressure to meet unrealistic expectations, leading to dysfunction in work processes.

• Empowering workers to make decisions based on their expertise rather than arbitrary deadlines improves productivity.

Moving Away from Estimation Dysfunction

• Shifting focus from estimation to empowering workers and creating a supportive work environment can lead to better outcomes.

• Embracing lean manufacturing principles and eliminating dysfunctional estimation practices can improve productivity and reduce stress.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of agile development and its impact on estimating project timelines.

Understanding Agile Development

• Agile development is a methodology that focuses on delivering value to customers through iterative and incremental development.

• The speaker mentions that some organizations struggle with implementing agile correctly, as they have preconceived notions about how things should be done.

• Agile emphasizes the importance of delivering valuable results rather than just meeting deadlines.

• The speaker highlights the challenge of accurately estimating project timelines in an agile environment.

New Section

In this section, the speaker introduces the concept of story points as a way to estimate work in agile systems.

Introducing Story Points

• Story points are a metric used in agile development to estimate the difficulty or effort required for completing a user story.

• User stories are short narratives that describe what users need to accomplish with a product or system.

• The purpose of using story points is to make informed decisions early in the project lifecycle, such as whether to continue or abandon a project.

• Estimating work based on story points allows teams to prioritize and plan their work effectively.

New Section

In this section, the speaker explains how story points help in making business decisions and managing projects effectively.

Making Business Decisions with Story Points

• Story points enable teams to make early decisions about whether a project is worth pursuing based on its estimated difficulty.

• By assigning numeric values (story points) to user stories, teams can assess the overall effort required for completing a project.

• This information helps stakeholders decide whether to continue investing resources into a particular project or explore alternative options.

• Additionally, story points assist in determining if additional resources should be allocated when faced with potential delays.

New Section

In this section, the speaker discusses the limitations and challenges associated with using story points for estimation.

Limitations of Story Points

• The speaker acknowledges that story points can lead to dysfunction within teams.

• Counting story points may not accurately reflect the complexity or effort required for completing a task.

• Estimation based on story points can be challenging when dealing with existing code or unforeseen technical difficulties.

• The speaker mentions "Brooks' Law," which states that adding more people to a late project only makes it later.

• Story points may not provide accurate projections, leading to potential delays and misunderstandings.

New Section

In this section, the speaker concludes by highlighting the shortcomings of estimation in agile systems and the need for alternative approaches.

Challenges in Agile Estimation

• The speaker emphasizes that traditional estimation approaches do not align well with agile development practices.

• Estimating work solely based on counting story points may lead to dysfunction within teams and inaccurate projections.

• It is crucial to find alternative methods that allow for effective decision-making early in the project lifecycle without relying solely on estimates.

This summary provides an overview of key concepts discussed in the transcript. For a more comprehensive understanding, please refer to the full transcript.

New Section

This section discusses the concept of estimating software development and the importance of accurate predictions.

Estimating Software Development

• Estimating software development is like estimating physics.

• The speaker introduces a slide about estimation in terms of predictive power.

• The manufacturing process and the time it takes to develop a warp drive are used as examples.

• Predicted and actual outputs are compared, highlighting the difference between expectations and reality.

• Story points are mentioned as a form of estimation, raising questions about their effectiveness.

New Section

In this section, the speaker explores the ritualistic nature of estimation and its impact on accurate predictions.

Ritualistic Nature of Estimation

• The speaker presents a slide showing a batter counting stories with his bat as part of a ritual.

• This ritual has no correlation with accurate predictions or actual outcomes.

• The catcher's actions and conversations with the umpire mirror those of the batter, emphasizing the disconnect between estimation rituals and desired results.

• Planning becomes challenging when people rely on rituals instead of focusing on accurate predictions.

New Section

This section delves into how teams can organize themselves to break free from estimation rituals.

Organizing Teams for Accurate Predictions

• The speaker suggests breaking free from estimation rituals to plan properly.

• Engaging both business needs and team members is crucial for effective planning without estimates.

• Using story maps, which track index cards representing backlog items, can be an alternative approach to traditional estimation rituals.

The Importance of Implementation

This section emphasizes the importance of implementing ideas successfully.

Implementing Ideas

• Successful implementation is crucial for progress and growth.

Planning for Business Success

This section discusses the significance of effective planning in business.

Effective Planning

• Proper planning ensures that time is not wasted.

• Activities should be planned based on their impact on the business.

• Estimates may change, so it's important to focus on stories rather than time-based estimates.

• Stories provide a better understanding of projections and correctness.

Story Mapping as a Planning Tool

This section explains how story mapping can be used as an effective planning tool.

Story Mapping

• Story maps help in visualizing and organizing project requirements.

• Top ten stories have a significant impact on the overall project.

• Backlog work is essential for planning and prioritization.

Estimation vs Counting Stories

This section compares estimation with counting stories in terms of efficiency and value.

Estimation vs Counting Stories

• Estimation can be wasteful as it often leads to incorrect assumptions and time-consuming processes.

• Counting stories provides valuable information without the need for complex estimation techniques.

The Destructive Nature of Estimation

This section highlights the negative impact of estimation on organizations.

Negative Impact of Estimation

• Estimation can be a destructive force within an organization.

• It forces dependency on time-based estimates and can lead to working on less important tasks.

The Efficiency of Counting Stories

This section emphasizes the efficiency of counting stories for planning purposes.

Efficiency of Counting Stories

• Counting stories is a simple yet effective way to plan and prioritize tasks.

• It provides projective tools and helps in understanding software requirements.

Prioritizing Important Tasks

This section discusses the importance of prioritizing important tasks.

Prioritization

• Always prioritize the most important tasks first.

• Focus on delivering value rather than getting caught up in estimation processes.

Conclusion

The transcript emphasizes the importance of successful implementation, effective planning, and prioritization in business. It highlights the inefficiency and negative impact of estimation while promoting the use of story mapping and counting stories as valuable planning tools.

Desenvolvimento Ágil: Estimativas e Gerenciamento de Tempo New Section

This section discusses the concept of estimation in agile development and how it relates to time management. It explores the idea that estimation is mostly waste, especially for top priority stories, and emphasizes the importance of empowering developers to control their own time.

The Value of Estimation

• Estimation is mostly a waste of time for top priority stories because they are likely to change quickly.

• There is no point in estimating lower priority stories as so much can change in the backlog.

• Tossing unnecessary backlog items is not a big deal as they can always be added back if needed.

Time Spent on Estimation

• Time spent on estimation depends on the value of the story.

• For top priority stories, time spent on estimation is mostly waste as they will be implemented soon.

• For lower priority stories, estimation becomes hideously wasteful as assumptions about software functionality may be incorrect.

Re-Estimating and Backlog Management

• Re-estimating items on the backlog due to changes above them is mentally deranged and a complete waste of time.

• Companies that require story point estimates for every item on the backlog are inefficient and wasting time.

Evolution from Scientific Management to Lean Manufacturing

• The concept of scientific management by Frederick Taylor involved using stopwatches to measure assembly line work.

• Taiichi Ohno introduced lean manufacturing at Toyota, empowering workers with control over their own work processes.

• Giving power to workers improves efficiency and eliminates the need for external managers with stopwatches.

Desenvolvimento Ágil: Estimativas e Gerenciamento de Tempo New Section

This section highlights how there are elements of correctness in estimating top ten stories, but the bottom stories are unpredictable and estimating them is a waste of time.

Elements of Correctness in Estimating Top Stories

• The top ten stories have elements of correctness as they can be implemented relatively quickly.

• Learning occurs during the implementation process, which may impact the underlying backlog work.

Unpredictability of Bottom Stories

• The bottom stories are highly unpredictable and subject to significant changes.

• Estimating these stories is pointless as assumptions about software functionality may be incorrect.

Backlog Management and Story Prioritization

• A backlog with a hundred stories indicates something is wrong because it's impossible to predict so far into the future.

• Tossing unnecessary bottom stories is not a problem as they can always be added back if needed.

Desenvolvimento Ágil: Estimativas e Gerenciamento de Tempo New Section

This section discusses the historical context of estimation in management practices, from Frederick Taylor's scientific management to Taiichi Ohno's lean manufacturing approach at Toyota.

Origins of Estimation in Scientific Management

• Frederick Taylor introduced scientific management based on assembly line work and time measurement using stopwatches.

• Managers with stopwatches would dictate how workers should change their processes to improve efficiency.

Lean Manufacturing and Empowering Workers

• Taiichi Ohno revolutionized manufacturing at Toyota by empowering workers on the assembly line.

• Workers were given control over their own work processes instead of being dictated by managers with stopwatches.

• Power to workers improves efficiency without relying on external managers for time estimation.

Understanding Story Points and Estimation

In this section, the speaker discusses the concept of story points and why they are used instead of numerical values. The effectiveness of using a Fibonacci sequence for story point estimation is also explored.

Story Points and Fibonacci Sequence

• Story points are used instead of numerical values to estimate the difficulty or effort required for a task.

• The Fibonacci sequence is used for story point estimation because it accounts for uncertainty in predicting the difficulty of tasks.

• Counting stories (using a value of 1 for each) yields similar results to using Fibonacci story points.

• By just counting stories, waste can be eliminated as it takes less time compared to estimating with story points.

Predictive Power of Counting Stories

This section focuses on the predictive power of counting stories versus using estimates based on story points. The speaker presents data that shows how counting stories can be just as effective in making accurate predictions.

Predictive Power Comparison

• Counting stories and using estimates based on story points yield almost identical results in terms of prediction accuracy.

• Even after multiple iterations, the numbers remain consistent between counting stories and using estimates.

• Counting stories alone is sufficient for making accurate predictions without involving any notion of time.

Planning with No Estimates

Here, the speaker discusses how to plan effectively without relying on estimates. The use of a story map is introduced as a helpful tool for organizing work and prioritizing tasks.

Planning with Story Map

• A story map is a collection of index cards that represent tasks in a backlog.

• The map organizes tasks by priority (from left to right) and time (from top to bottom).

• Epics, user activities, and individual stories are organized in the story map.

• The middle section of the story map represents tasks that can be worked on.

• Using a story map helps prioritize tasks and decide what to work on next.

The transcript is in Portuguese.

Diagram Changes in 2026

This section discusses changes to a diagram in the year 2026.

Diagram Updates

• The transcript mentions that there will be changes to a diagram in 2026.

• However, no further details are provided about the specific nature of these changes.

The information provided is limited and does not offer any additional insights or context regarding the diagram updates.