video1362391934

Introduction to the Blueprint Podcast and Asia Power Index

Overview of the Podcast

• The podcast is hosted by Mohammad Asif Khan, focusing on defense, strategy, and global security.

• Discussion centers around the 2025 Asia Power Index released by the Lowy Institute, assessing military, economic, and diplomatic power in the Asia Pacific.

Significance of the Asia Power Index

• India has crossed a significant threshold in the index for the first time, ranking third in the region as a major superpower.

Guest Introduction: Susanna Patton

Who is Susanna Patton?

• Susanna Patton serves as Deputy Research Director and Director of Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute. She is one of the architects behind the Asia Power Index.

Importance of Understanding Balance of Power

• The discussion aims to clarify what the Asia Power Index is and its relevance in understanding Indo-Pacific dynamics.

What is the Asia Power Index?

Definition and Purpose

• Launched in 2018 by Lowy Institute, it compares national power across 27 Asian countries from Pakistan to Australia.

Methodology

• Unlike traditional assessments that focus solely on economy size or military strength, it provides a modern evaluation using over 130 quantitative indicators from various sources.

Contesting Views on National Power

Conflicting Perspectives

• There are varying opinions regarding U.S. power status—whether it's declining or still dominant—and China's potential rise as a rival. These debates extend to India's regional influence as well.

Data-driven Insights

• The index offers empirical data to inform these discussions about national power dynamics in Asia.

Trends in Regional Power Dynamics

Bipolar Distribution of Power

• Since 2018, U.S. and China have maintained dominance over other Asian nations like Japan and India; thus, power distribution is described as bipolar rather than multipolar.

India's Rising Status

• India’s comprehensive power has shown positive trends over recent years; it overtook Japan to become third-ranked in 2024 and reached major power status this year with significant milestones achieved.

Drivers Behind India's Improved Performance

Economic Growth Factors

• Key drivers include robust economic growth compared to Japan's demographic challenges which contribute positively to India's standing in the index.

Diplomatic Influence

• Steady growth recorded in diplomatic influence through expanded diplomatic networks and favorable expert assessments indicate effective foreign policy strategies employed by India over recent years.

Defense Networks

• Although not part of formal alliances due to its non-aligned stance, India has seen improvements in its defense network scores reflecting growing partnerships despite limitations compared to allied nations.( t =389 s )

Economic Relationships

• Historical struggles with trade agreements are being countered by increased inbound investments into India driven by its competitive market landscape.( t =422 s )

Comprehensive Assessment

• Improvement stems from multiple factors rather than a single cause; all elements contribute collectively towards enhancing India's score within this framework.( t =476 s )

Understanding the Power Gap: Resources vs. Influence

The Concept of the Power Gap

• The power gap refers to the disparity between a country's resources and its influence, as measured in the age of power index.

• Countries are evaluated based on their available resources and how effectively they utilize them to exert influence.

Overperformers and Underperformers

• Japan is identified as an overperformer, having more influence than expected given its resources. Conversely, India is categorized as an underperformer, lacking influence relative to its resource base.

• India's global focus dilutes its regional influence in Asia, particularly since the index's geographic scope does not fully capture India's diplomatic activities beyond Pakistan.

Domestic Focus of Large Countries

• Large countries like India often prioritize domestic needs due to significant welfare requirements, which can limit their outward projection of power compared to smaller nations like Singapore that have fewer domestic obligations.

• This inward focus contributes to India's negative power gap by restricting its international engagement capabilities.

Economic Engagement Challenges

• India exhibits caution regarding deep economic ties with Southeast Asia and China, viewing such connections as potential vulnerabilities rather than opportunities for growth. This perspective hampers India's economic relationships within Asia.

• In defense networks, India struggles to match countries like Japan and South Korea that are deeply integrated into U.S.-led alliances and regional partnerships.

Potential for Growth Amidst Challenges

• Despite being characterized as underperforming, there exists latent potential for India to enhance its influence in Asia if it addresses these gaps effectively. This dual perspective allows for a more optimistic view of India's future capabilities.

The Importance of Regional Partnerships in Defense

Defense Networks Analysis

• The index evaluates defense networks through alliance partnerships (which India lacks) and regional defense diplomacy involving military exercises and dialogues among nations.

• The United States remains a dominant player in regional defense diplomacy, with Australia also performing strongly in this area; these engagements are highly valued by other countries involved.

Follow-through on Defense Agreements

• A specific analysis revealed that while India initiates formal defense agreements with ASEAN countries, it often fails to follow through effectively on these commitments, limiting their impact on strengthening partnerships.

Resource Allocation Issues

• Historical trends show that India has allocated more resources towards land warfare rather than maritime operations; this imbalance may affect its ability to engage meaningfully in naval or maritime security initiatives within Southeast Asia.( t = 951 s )

Evaluating Military Capability: Readiness vs Inventory

Measurement Criteria for Military Capability

• The military capability component of the index assesses both quantitative data (equipment inventories and armed forces size) alongside qualitative evaluations from experts regarding maintenance levels of military assets.( t = 987 s )

Military Capabilities and Regional Influence in Asia

Assessment of Military Training and Cyber Capabilities

• The evaluation of soldiers' training and armed forces' cyber capabilities is challenging, often leading to qualitative assessments rather than quantitative metrics.

India's Military Capability Trends

• India has seen a modest increase in military capability scores over recent years, particularly since 2025, influenced by lessons learned from conflicts with Pakistan.

• Despite improvements, India's advancements are not keeping pace with China's rapid military modernization, which raises concerns among regional analysts regarding relative military power.

Relative Measurement Challenges

• The ongoing capability gap between India and China is expected to persist, as China's military modernization outstrips that of other nations in the region.

• The Asia Power Index serves as a descriptive tool rather than prescriptive; different countries achieve high scores through varied strategies.

Economic Growth and Regional Partnerships

• For India to enhance its position in the Asia Power Index, it requires sustained economic growth focused on both size and quality, particularly technological advancements.

• Strengthening trade relationships across Asia and fostering deeper partnerships in South and Southeast Asia are crucial for enhancing India's influence.

Perception of India in Southeast Asia

• In Southeast Asia, India is viewed as a potential balancing power against over-reliance on China or the U.S., emphasizing the importance of diversified strategic partnerships.

• There is significant interest from Southeast Asian nations for increased diplomatic engagement with India, highlighted by defense initiatives like missile sales to the Philippines.

Economic Engagement Disappointments

• Residual disappointment exists due to India's withdrawal from negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), affecting perceptions of its commitment to economic collaboration.

• Comments made by India's Commerce Minister about Southeast Asia reflect a disconnect that may hinder future economic relations.

Variable Influence Across Southeast Asian Nations

• India's influence varies significantly across Southeast Asian countries; Myanmar represents strong ties while Malaysia and Singapore also maintain cultural connections.

• Opportunities exist for deeper strategic relationships with Indonesia based on shared maritime interests; however, these have yet to materialize fully under current leadership.

2025 Asia Power Index Insights

Overview of the Podcast Episode

• Thank you, Susanna, for your insights on the 2025 Asia Power Index and its implications for India and the broader region.

• The episode concludes with an invitation to listeners to stay tuned for future discussions on defense, strategy, and global security.