A Sober Take On Altcoins [Going Into 2026]

What Does the Future Hold for Altcoins in 2026?

Current Market Sentiment and Expectations

• The speaker addresses those still holding onto high expectations for altcoins, reflecting on a significant market downturn of 90% since their peak.

• There is speculation about the potential for an "altcoin season" or positive price action in 2026, contrasting with current downtrends.

Conditions Required for Positive Altcoin Performance

• Two primary conditions are identified as necessary for altcoin performance:

• Continued loosening of global monetary conditions.

• Bitcoin must achieve a new all-time high, breaking its historical four-year cycle.

Monetary Conditions

• The speaker discusses the projected decline of US Fed fund rates through 2026, suggesting that this could positively impact Bitcoin and altcoins.

• A new Fed chair appointed by Trump may continue to lower rates, which historically correlates with rising Bitcoin prices.

Global M2 Growth

• Analysts predict that global M2 (money supply) will either hold steady or increase, which is crucial for supporting altcoin prices.

Implications of Bitcoin's Price Movement

• If Bitcoin does not break its four-year cycle and continues to decline, it could lead to further losses in altcoins.

• The need for Bitcoin to make unexpected moves—either sideways or upward—is emphasized as critical for any potential recovery in the altcoin market.

Additional Factors Influencing Altcoin Success

• More altcoin ETFs are needed alongside increased participation from investors to stimulate market activity.

• The speaker warns that if bearish trends persist, altcoins could face severe declines; thus, a bullish shift in Bitcoin is essential.

Conclusion and Call to Action

• To foster a favorable environment for dog coins and other altcoins in 2026:

• Looser monetary conditions are vital.

• A new all-time high for Bitcoin is necessary.

The discussion concludes with an encouragement to stay informed through newsletters and updates on macroeconomic trends affecting cryptocurrency markets.

Altcoin Market Insights and Predictions

Current Market Conditions for Altcoins

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of subscribing to their newsletter, which provides relevant news and trade setups for altcoins.

• The "others chart" represents all cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10, indicating a consolidation within a multi-year triangle pattern at lower market cap levels.

• Currently, altcoins outside the top 10 constitute about 12% of Bitcoin's total market cap, reflecting significant undervaluation post-FTX collapse.

Analysis of Altcoin Valuations

• Most altcoins have been in a bear market throughout 2025, with few exceptions; this suggests potential for recovery if conditions improve.

• The total market capitalization excluding stable coins shows no all-time high yet but indicates gradual valuation increases.

Future Outlook for Altcoins

• A major takeaway is that many altcoins are currently at bear market discounts. If monetary conditions loosen next year and Bitcoin breaks its four-year cycle to reach new highs, it could create opportunities for altcoin trading.

• Caution is advised; while there may be potential gains in altcoin valuations, it's essential to monitor Bitcoin's performance closely before making investment decisions.