🔴EN VIVO Qué Operar HOY en el Trading: ¡Los Activos Más Rentables de 2026!🚀 01/04, 8,15 h

Macro Data Overview and Market Insights

Current Economic Situation

• The speaker introduces the session, highlighting the importance of macroeconomic data for the day.

• A survey on Japan's manufacturing sector shows growth, with a rise from 16 to 17, indicating a positive outlook despite previous revisions.

• The PMI for China's small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is reported at 50.8, slightly below expectations but still indicates growth.

Retail Sales and Employment Data

• Swiss retail sales are anticipated after a year of negative annualized data (-1.1%), raising concerns about inflation.

• Eurozone employment rate remains stable at 6.1%, aligning with consensus expectations; ADP data will be released soon.

• Upcoming employment data in Europe is significant as it coincides with holidays affecting market operations.

Key Indicators and Market Volatility

• Retail sales figures are crucial for understanding American consumer behavior; they are expected to provide insights into economic health.

• The ISM manufacturing PMI report is highlighted as historically influential on market volatility, especially during stable periods.

Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices

U.S.-Iran Relations

• Discussion around Trump's upcoming announcement suggests potential geopolitical implications that could affect oil markets significantly.

• The complexity of negotiating with Iran is emphasized due to its fragmented power structure post-leadership changes.

Oil Market Predictions

• Analysts predict Brent crude oil prices may surge to $150 amid escalating tensions, complicating supply dynamics in the Gulf region.

Military Actions and Strategic Considerations

• Concerns arise over U.S. military strategies in Iran; experts warn against ground invasions due to geographical challenges.

• Trump’s approach appears reactive rather than strategic, leading to increased troop deployments without clear objectives or plans.

This structured summary captures key points from the transcript while providing timestamps for easy reference.

Current Market Situation and Projections

Overview of Ongoing Conflict and Market Dynamics

• The speaker emphasizes that the ongoing conflict will not resolve immediately, indicating a complex situation that remains challenging even after hostilities cease.

• There is a mention of proportionality in market movements, suggesting that significant corrections were expected but did not occur as anticipated.

Analysis of Price Movements

• A breakdown in the sequence of lower highs and lows has been observed, with a new higher low being validated by recent price action. This indicates potential upward movement.

• The current price correction is deemed sufficient for an upward trend to continue, although it may not be straightforward. The speaker anticipates revisiting previous highs soon.

Resistance Levels and Future Expectations

• Important support levels are now acting as resistance due to market dynamics; this shift necessitates careful observation before entering trades.

• The upcoming trading sessions are crucial, with expectations for corrections during specific time frames when markets are closed in both Europe and the U.S., allowing for clearer strategies tomorrow.

Caution Against Premature Trading

• Traders are advised against engaging in bearish movements prematurely, as the market may remain lateral without strong downward pressure; patience is encouraged until clear correction zones emerge.

• Projected target areas suggest significant resistance around 24,000, where multiple barriers exist that could impede upward momentum. This includes notable weekly chart patterns that traders should monitor closely.

Anticipated Market Behavior

• The speaker predicts potential pullbacks towards key resistance levels (around 24,080), emphasizing various ways these movements can manifest—whether through spikes or sustained periods at certain price points.

• With no major economic catalysts on the horizon today except minor retail sales data from the U.S., volatility might be limited; however, structural shifts within the market could indicate changing trends ahead.

Market Projections and Corrections

Analysis of Livex and Ibex Movements

• The speaker discusses a projection for the Ibex, indicating potential short-term support levels around 178 to 179.

• It is noted that the current wave (wave 3) is nearing a probable stopping point, suggesting an upcoming correction lasting one to two days.

• The speaker emphasizes that the market movement is mature and warns against entering positions at this stage due to high separation from correction zones.

• A comparison with DAX is made, highlighting its leading position among indices and the need for careful management moving forward.

Eurostock Insights

• The Eurostock's movements are analyzed similarly, with attention drawn to its validation zone during live analysis.

• The Eurostock appears poised to reach its annual opening level for 2026, which has acted as significant support in previous instances.

• Statistical norms suggest corrections typically reach between 123% and 161%, advising caution when setting targets based on these projections.

Current Market Conditions

• The speaker notes a "cinta" pattern emerging but stresses that current conditions make trading unviable; patience is required before re-entering the market.

• Observations on Futsi indicate advanced movement towards critical resistance levels, with signs of diminishing strength in upward momentum as indicated by oscillators.

Structural Analysis

• A structural breakdown suggests potential completion of wave patterns within Futsi, hinting at possible future movements towards higher resistance levels around 10,500.

• Emphasis on identifying key support and resistance zones indicates strategic planning for upcoming trades based on historical data.

Conclusion on Market Strategy

• The discussion concludes with insights into various support zones across different timeframes (daily, weekly), reinforcing the importance of understanding market dynamics before making trading decisions.

Market Analysis and Predictions

Historical Context and Current Volatility

• The speaker discusses the historical price level of 8123 as a significant annual opening point for 2026, indicating that current volatility is expected and normal.

• Emphasizes the importance of key resistance levels, suggesting that a price correction may occur before potentially reaching higher levels.

Oscillator Insights and Market Behavior

• The oscillator indicates a decrease in momentum, suggesting the market is nearing an end to its current upward movement characterized by euphoria.

• Analyzes Italy's market validation from the previous day, noting it has room for movement but highlights potential corrections based on Fibonacci retracement levels.

Correction Patterns and Market Dynamics

• Observes a prior attempt at correction when the market approached the annual opening zone, indicating psychological factors affecting traders' decisions.

• Predicts consolidation around the annual opening zone following significant market movements, emphasizing caution against entering trades during high-risk periods.

Wave Analysis and Trading Strategies

• Clarifies that what appears to be an impulse wave lacks a third wave structure; instead, it suggests this is part of a corrective wave (C).

• Warns against misinterpreting Elliott Wave patterns which can lead to substantial trading losses; stresses understanding current market conditions over rigid theories.

Gold Market Evaluation

• Discusses gold's recent performance and advises waiting for further validation before making trading decisions due to volatility.

• Highlights specific price zones where gold could reach based on previous analysis, indicating potential resistance areas as critical points for future movements.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Understanding Market Zones and Corrections

• The speaker discusses the "expected zone," emphasizing that entering this area is akin to gambling, comparing it to betting large sums at a casino.

• They highlight the complexity of market movements, warning against entering trades based on FOMO (fear of missing out), especially when patterns indicate maturity.

• The importance of recognizing initial movements in price action is stressed, noting that these can be observed across various timeframes.

• A cautionary note is given about how quickly an operation can turn negative if entered incorrectly due to emotional impulses.

• The speaker reflects on past discussions regarding gold trading strategies, advocating for waiting for clear breakouts and confirmations before making moves.

Technical Analysis Insights

• Emphasizes the significance of technical analysis in maintaining control over trading decisions, particularly when not fully invested.

• Analyzes the euro's recent movements, suggesting it may present a deceptive opportunity as it appears to initiate a new impulse rather than merely correcting.

• Warns traders not to become overly excited about potential gains with the euro-dollar pair; careful analysis is necessary before proceeding.

• Discusses conditions under which trading should continue while remaining cautious about potential corrections in price movement.

• Highlights the need for vigilance if prices fall below critical support zones, indicating difficulty in recovery.

Evaluating Other Currency Pairs

• Notes that if significant support levels are breached, it could signal a shift towards downward momentum rather than upward recovery.

• Suggesting that current market behavior indicates a possible correction phase before continuing downward trends; traders should remain aware of this possibility.

• Briefly touches upon the situation with GBP/USD but advises against engaging without clear structure or signals from the market.

• Discusses potential movements within other markets like Hansen but remains uncertain about specific wave completions or projections.

This structured summary encapsulates key insights from the transcript while providing timestamps for easy reference.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Opening Market Insights

• The speaker discusses the need for a significant correction before continuing upward movement in the market, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategy preparation.

• Acknowledges the difficulty of trading due to current market conditions being "intoxicating" and advises traders to remain calm and wait for optimal opportunities.

Economic Predictions

• The speaker predicts that if certain countries were to disappear from the economic landscape, only a few like Great Britain, the USA, Canada, and Russia would remain unaffected. This could lead to a complete overhaul of global energy dynamics.

• Anticipates chaos in global markets over the next 4-5 years as fossil fuel reliance diminishes while new technologies emerge.

Market Projections

• Clarifies that he is projecting an ABC corrective wave rather than a wave 3 projection, indicating a more cautious approach with expected price levels around 123 or 150.

• Highlights the difference between following price movements versus actively trading them; emphasizes caution for novice traders.

Trading Techniques

• Discusses volatility in trading environments where experienced scalpers can profit by quickly exiting positions without greed influencing their decisions.

• Notes that most average traders may struggle with high-volatility situations, contrasting them with skilled scalpers who understand market signals better.

Technical Analysis Concepts

• Defines a "technical candle," explaining its significance when it fails to reach new highs after previous upward movements—indicating potential profit-taking opportunities.

• Emphasizes that such technical candles signal corrections in larger time frames but are crucial for short-term trading strategies.

Intraday Trading Considerations

• Stresses that weekly charts do not directly influence intraday operations; however, they provide context regarding nearby resistance levels which must be considered during trades.

• Warns about potential bearish trends at market openings based on prior analysis and suggests vigilance among traders as they navigate these conditions.