ICT January 17, 2018

Market Review for January 17th, 2018

Overview of the Dollar Index

• The speaker discusses the dollar index and anticipates a breakdown below a specific low, indicating potential market movements.

• A bounce was observed after reaching a target level, although the movement was not significant in pips but noteworthy.

• The focus is on retesting levels around 90.132 to 90.135 as potential short-term resistance before another selling round.

• The current outlook suggests a very short-term bullish trend for the dollar, primarily as a retracement rather than a bottom-picking strategy.

Analysis of Eurodollar Movements

• The Eurodollar target was set at 1.2232, which has been surpassed significantly with price reaching up to 1.2322.

• A smaller timeframe analysis shows key lows and equal lows that will be monitored for future movements.

• Focus on an order block around the 21.30 level as a potential downside objective while noting bullish signals from previous price actions.

British Pound Insights

• Discussion shifts to the British Pound, highlighting its recent high of 39.43 and expectations for it to trade below certain levels.

• A market structure shift occurred when prices broke above critical levels; this prompted a change in trading strategy without prior public announcement on Twitter.

• Emphasis on using weekly objectives and past performance data to inform trading decisions moving forward.

Trading Strategy Considerations

• The speaker reflects on missed opportunities due to lack of strong setups in previous trades and expresses caution about entering positions without clear indicators.

• Specific attention is given to significant levels like 138.65 derived from historical data that could influence future trades.

Market Analysis and Trading Insights

Intraday Price Movements

• The speaker discusses a missed opportunity for a better entry point during a price rally, indicating that they anticipated a retracement but did not participate in the subsequent upward movement.

• The target for intraday trading was set at 138.50, with expectations of reaching this level overnight; however, the market exceeded these expectations significantly.

• Observations on market responses indicate that while there was an expansion in price action, it became more contained than initially expected within the daily range.

Potential Trading Strategies

• The speaker emphasizes that their commentary is not trade advice but rather intended to stimulate thought regarding potential order blocks and market reactions.

• A specific level around 139 is highlighted as significant for potential bounces; traders are encouraged to observe how the market reacts to this area without risking capital.

Reflections on Cryptocurrency

• Transitioning to cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, the speaker notes that prices fell below $12,000 and subsequently below $10,000, marking significant lows in recent trading history.

• The speaker expresses an objective viewpoint on Bitcoin's price movements due to having no financial stake in it; this perspective allows for unbiased analysis of market trends.

Market Predictions and Personal Opinions

• There’s a discussion about the challenges faced by long-term holders of cryptocurrencies who may seek justification for their investments amidst declining prices.

• The speaker shares personal insights on why holding onto certain assets might not be advisable based on observed market behavior and past predictions.

Future Outlook

• Speculation about Bitcoin's future suggests potential further declines towards the $1,000-$5,000 range; however, no specific timeframe is provided for when these levels might be reached.

Analysis of Price Action and Ripple Market Trends

Understanding Price Action in Trading

• The speaker emphasizes the importance of specific elements in price action, stating that if these elements are absent, one should wait for them to materialize rather than gamble on trades.

• A discussion on Ripple highlights a breach below key levels, particularly around the 90-cent mark, indicating significant market movements with two notable sweeps down to this level.

• The speaker expresses skepticism about potential upward movement in Ripple's price, suggesting it is not a favorable time for buying or shorting based on current price action analysis.

• Observations indicate a market maker sell model at play; the speaker notes consolidation followed by a rally that may lead to another opportunity for selling off below 60 cents.

• The speaker advises against holding onto Ripple as an investment, framing their insights as non-trade advice aimed at stimulating decision-making and study practices.

Mentorship Enrollment Updates

• An update regarding mentorship enrollment indicates issues with email communications due to platform changes; the speaker has switched to MailChimp for better service reliability.

• Clarification is provided that January enrollment is not closing but offers a window for new participants; future enrollments will occur monthly, typically in the second week.

• Participants who miss January enrollment will have opportunities to join later but may start behind others already enrolled.

• The speaker reassures potential mentees that they are not being excluded from opportunities and aims to accommodate all interested individuals despite high demand.