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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - Ideal Seasonal Tendencies
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - Ideal Seasonal Tendencies

Seasonal Tendencies in Forex Trading

In this lesson, the speaker discusses seasonal tendencies in foreign exchange (FX) trading. The focus is on identifying ideal seasonal tendencies and higher time frame analysis.

Ideal Seasonal Tendencies for Australian Dollar Futures Price and US Dollar Index Futures Price

  • Seasonal tendencies are not a guarantee but rather a tendency based on past price action.
  • The strongest seasonal tendency for Australian dollar futures prices is to rally in March and make a top sometime in May. This is opposite to the dollar index which shows a decline between March and May.
  • A qualified ideal scenario for the Australian US dollar pair in FX to rally exists when we see the rise of Australian dollar futures or prices versus lower prices on the dollar index.
  • For New Zealand dollar futures price, there is typically a seasonal low that forms between March and April followed by a rally up into around May.

Ideal Seasonal Tendency for Euro Futures Price and US Dollar Index Futures Price

  • There is usually a seasonal low that forms between June and July for Euro futures price, which should be seen with a high that forms in the dollar index.

Seasonal Tendencies in Forex Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses seasonal tendencies in forex trading and how to use them to make profitable trades.

British Pound Seasonal Tendency

  • The strongest tendency for the British pound is to make a low in March with a high forming in May.
  • This means that between March and April, we would expect a high to form, followed by a low in May.
  • This is an ideal scenario for seasonal tendencies, especially if the underlying market for the British pound is bullish.
  • The speaker recommends taking a long-term trade if this scenario occurs.

Dollar Swiss Franc Seasonal Tendency

  • There is a strong tendency for the dollar to make a seasonal high in June/July while the Swiss franc makes a low during this time period.
  • This creates a major turning point during summer months for this particular pair.
  • This would be an ideal scenario if the dollar is in a bearish market or if we are in an uptrend for the Swiss franc.

Dollar Japanese Yen Seasonal Tendency

  • The strongest tendency on the dollar is to see a high form and then sell-off into May while there's usually a seasonal low forming in March/April which generally makes the long-term low for Japanese yen across the calendar year.
  • If you're bearish on the dollar index, it's recommended to sell short dollar versus Japanese yen or if you're long-term bullish on Japanese yen, it's recommended to sell short this currency pair because you'd be buying strength of Japanese yen while selling dollars.

Dollar Canadian Dollar Seasonal Tendency

  • There is a strong tendency for US dollar versus Canadian dollar (dollar CAD) to create highs again during March/April time period with lows forming in May.
  • Conversely, Canadian dollars tend to make lows during March/April with highs forming in May.
  • If you're bearish on the dollar index, it's recommended to sell short dollar CAD or if you're long-term bullish on Canadian dollars, it's recommended to sell this pair because of the weakness in the dollar index and strength underlying with Canadian dollars.

Seasonal Tendencies in Trading

In this section, the speaker discusses how seasonal tendencies can be used to identify high probability trading opportunities.

Using Seasonal Tendencies for Trading

  • Identifying a currency that has a strong seasonal tendency to rally during a specific time of year can be an ideal scenario for selling dollars.
  • Focusing on the time of year when a currency has a seasonal tendency to rally can provide a high probability trading opportunity, even if the dollar index is not in an uptrend.
  • Combining the underlying strength of a currency with its seasonal tendency can help identify when the highest probability for a big move is likely to occur.
  • It's important to have these seasonal tendencies noted in your calendar and review them daily before starting your trading day.

Importance of Macro Perspective

  • Reviewing macro perspectives like seasonal tendencies at the start of each trading day can help identify sustainable moves and provide clues about price rhythms.
  • Seasonal tendencies are useful not only for higher time frame analysis but also for swing and short-term trading.

Overall, understanding and utilizing seasonal tendencies can provide traders with valuable insights into high probability trading opportunities. By combining these tendencies with underlying strength, traders can narrow down specific times of year when big moves are likely to occur. It's important to review these tendencies regularly and incorporate them into daily trading routines.

Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 05
Video description

2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in January 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.