ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - Using IPDA Data Ranges

Name: ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 05 - Using IPDA Data Ranges
Uploaded: 2022-09-12T20:30:03.000Z
Duration: 4 h 4 min 42 s

Analyzing the Australian Dollar: IPTA Data Range Example

Introduction to the Analysis

The focus is on analyzing the Australian dollar (AUD) and understanding recent price movements.

Emphasis on reviewing charts shared in a forum, encouraging participants to save these for reference.

Importance of Daily Reviews

Daily entries serve as personal journal points, highlighting key levels and observations made by the speaker.

Participants are advised not to wait for explicit buy/sell signals but to observe how prices move towards identified levels.

Learning from Hindsight vs. Anticipation

Understanding market movements requires patience; it's crucial to anticipate rather than react only after events unfold.

The speaker stresses that learning involves waiting for market developments, which can be challenging.

The Challenge of Impatience in Trading

Many traders struggle with impatience; recognizing this is essential for long-term success.

Despite being known for patience, the speaker admits personal struggles with impatience, particularly in trading styles.

Practical Tips for Traders

Participants should actively engage with daily content—printing charts and maintaining a log of observations.

Keeping track of noted observations helps understand timeframes and responses once levels are reached.

Experience Over Theory

New traders must grasp that real-time experience differs significantly from theoretical knowledge or hindsight examples.

Acknowledging the gap between expectation and reality is vital; markets do not always behave as anticipated.

Building a Reference System

Creating a structured system (e.g., using binders for printed charts and notes) aids in tracking progress over time.

Regularly reviewing past observations allows traders to learn from their experiences effectively.

Transitioning into Specific Examples

Understanding the Influence of Futures Contracts on Forex Trading

The Importance of Studying Futures Contracts

Gaining insights from studying futures contracts is crucial for understanding market movements.

Focusing on the Australian USD pair, the analysis of futures contracts is essential for effective trading in the foreign exchange market.

Many traders tend to specialize in either forex or futures without considering how they influence each other, which can limit their analytical perspective.

Interconnection Between Forex and Futures Markets

It’s vital for traders to analyze both markets to gain a comprehensive view; neglecting one can lead to incomplete strategies.

While it may seem intuitive that the Australian dollar's futures contract should mirror its forex counterpart, discrepancies exist due to data limitations in forex trading.

Forex does not provide accurate volume data like futures contracts do, making it necessary to consider both for informed decision-making.

Analyzing Market Shifts

A chart covering less than six months is presented, emphasizing the importance of focusing on recent data trends in futures contracts.

Traders are encouraged to examine daily charts over three months to identify significant market shifts and understand current price actions better.

The most notable market shift occurred back in November 2016, highlighting critical moments that traders should recognize.

Understanding Order Blocks and Market Behavior

Questions arise regarding order blocks—areas where buying or selling pressure exists—and how they affect future price movements.

Patience is emphasized as key; understanding these concepts will unfold throughout mentorship rather than rushing through them.

Recognizing Major Market Shifts

The November 2016 shift serves as a pivotal learning point; recognizing such shifts helps traders anticipate future movements based on historical data patterns.

Understanding Market Structure Shifts

The Role of Algorithms in Market Behavior

The speaker expresses skepticism about subjective market analysis methods like Elliott Wave, suggesting that market movements may be influenced by algorithms rather than random events.

They assert that price movements are predetermined and follow a script based on specific data points, indicating a structured approach to market analysis.

Analyzing Price Ranges

Discussion of different look-back periods (20-day, 40-day, 60-day) for analyzing price trends and shifts in market structure.

Emphasizes the importance of identifying significant counter-direction levels that could indicate a change in market behavior or consolidation phases.

Identifying Market Structure Shifts

Highlights the potential for price consolidation instead of clear retracements during downtrends, particularly referencing the period from November to January.

Notes a broken low as an indicator of a shift in market structure, emphasizing the need to recognize these changes for effective trading strategies.

Utilizing Historical Data for Predictions

Stresses the importance of aligning with recent interbank price delivery algorithm (IPTA) actions to identify key points where market shifts began.

Advises traders to analyze past three months' data to find obvious bullish or bearish moves that can inform future trading decisions.

Time Horizons and Trading Strategies

Suggests dividing daily charts into quarters to easily spot quarterly shifts while acknowledging some variability around those months.

Discusses how understanding liquidity gaps and equilibrium price points can guide traders in making informed decisions about entering trades.

Long-Term Trading Insights

The speaker believes that recognizing quarterly shifts provides insights into potential market behavior over three-month horizons, which is ideal for various trading styles including long-term positions and scalping.

Understanding Algorithmic Trading and Data Points

The Role of System Analysts in Programming

A system analyst collaborates with companies to define desired outputs, such as reports or computations.

They identify available data points necessary for programmers to create effective algorithms.

The documentation stage involves outlining the macro processes without directly coding, ensuring clarity on what needs to happen.

Programmers rely heavily on these documented processes; without data points, their work is ineffective.

Insights into Market Operations

The speaker emphasizes that market price movements are not random but have clear origins and patterns.

Understanding numerical values related to prices is crucial for analyzing market behavior effectively.

Algorithms must recognize significant price levels where large funds operate, which is often overlooked in retail trading education.

Misconceptions in Retail Trading

Many retail traders misunderstand institutional trading dynamics and believe they are being manipulated by brokers when stopped out of trades.

Price movements from central banks consider large liquidity pools rather than individual retail trader positions.

Transitioning from Retail to Fund Management

Successful retail traders often aspire to manage funds but may not change their trading strategies upon entering larger fund environments.

New fund managers must adhere to strict guidelines set by their agencies, limiting their operational flexibility compared to independent traders.

Understanding Algorithmic Data Requirements

Algorithms require a range of data points over specific look-back periods (e.g., 20, 40, or 60 days).

Understanding Market Patterns and Algorithms

Analyzing Currency Pairs and Commodities

The speaker encourages a thorough review of various financial instruments, including currency pairs, commodities, individual stocks, and indices to identify patterns.

Emphasizes that market movements are not random; there are consistent patterns observable through analysis.

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Trading

Discusses the transition from manual market manipulation by individuals to algorithm-driven processes due to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI).

Clarifies that algorithms do not see orders but instead facilitate price movement for traders at the bank level.

Understanding Stop Levels and Price Movements

Explains how algorithms analyze historical data (up to 60 days back) to identify stop levels above highs and below lows.

Highlights the importance of recognizing significant highs and lows within a specified timeframe for predicting future price movements.

Identifying Explosive Market Moves

Addresses scenarios where extreme lows outside the 60-day range can trigger aggressive market movements.

Describes how traders can anticipate significant price runs based on previous stop levels being cleared.

Utilizing Historical Data for Future Predictions

Advises using a 60-day lookback period combined with forward projections to identify potential liquidity pools for trading opportunities.

Stresses the need to mark key high and low points from both 40-day and 60-day analyses as reference points for future trades.

Algorithmic Behavior in Trading Strategies

Notes that AI seeks logical stop placements based on human trading behavior, such as placing buy stops above old highs or sell stops below old lows.

Discusses how brokers may create spikes around these levels (10 to 20 pips), which aligns with algorithmic strategies.

Anticipating Market Dynamics Over Time

Suggests considering a total of 120 days' worth of data (past and projected forward), which is crucial for understanding potential market shifts.

Market Dynamics and Price Movements

Understanding Buy and Sell Stops

The speaker discusses the importance of identifying buy stops above old highs and sell stops below recent lows, emphasizing a comprehensive look at market history.

A new price expansion is necessary when all buy and sell stops are cleared; traders must identify the next significant high and low outside a 60-day range for accurate predictions.

Analyzing Historical Price Points

The discussion highlights how historical lows just outside a defined timeframe can influence current market behavior, using hypothetical examples to illustrate this concept.

Specific attention is given to significant lower lows that markets may target, indicating potential price movements towards these levels.

Institutional Order Flow Insights

Identifying institutional order flow helps in determining directional bias; higher time frames (daily, weekly, monthly charts) provide more reliable insights into future price movements.

Forecasting Market Shifts

The speaker outlines a 20-day forecast from November 1st, suggesting that significant setups will emerge within this period as the market approaches previous lows formed in October.

Consolidation patterns are noted as critical indicators of potential shifts in market direction over specified periods.

Anticipating Changes in Market Direction

A 40-day outlook is discussed as essential for anticipating major quarterly shifts; traders should remain vigilant for signs of change during this timeframe.

Emphasis is placed on understanding that markets do not move linearly; recognizing potential turning points requires careful observation beyond fixed intervals.

Trading Strategies Based on Indicators

The speaker reflects on personal trading experiences with various indicators like stochastic and Williams %R, noting their strengths and weaknesses in predicting market movements.

Williams %R's ability to signal oversold conditions ahead of time is highlighted as an advantage over other indicators which react post-factum.

Timing Market Turns

There’s an acknowledgment that while certain patterns may suggest turning points around specific days (20th or 40th), they are not guaranteed; flexibility in strategy is crucial.

Understanding Market Movements and Liquidity

The Importance of Timeframes in Trading

The discussion begins by emphasizing the need to roll back to the beginning of November to understand market movements, indicating that significant changes occur within specific timeframes.

A notable retracement or correction is highlighted as essential for understanding market behavior, particularly referencing December's high and its implications on current trading levels.

The significance of a 40-day range is introduced, suggesting that price movements can be anticipated based on historical lows and highs within this timeframe.

Analyzing Price Levels and Liquidity

The speaker discusses how price levels are influenced by liquidity needs from large funds, noting that every three months there will be fluctuations driven by these requirements.

Long-term trends are contrasted with short-term cycles; while quarterly movements are important, they do not significantly impact long-term macro fundamentals like interest rates.

Utilizing Historical Data for Future Predictions

Emphasis is placed on using historical data (20 days back, 40 days back) to identify potential turning points in the market, which can guide future trading decisions.

A methodical approach is suggested where traders can anticipate shifts in price by marking significant dates and analyzing previous highs and lows.

Identifying Key Highs and Lows

The process of counting backward from key dates helps identify critical highs that may serve as targets for buy stops in future trades.

The algorithmic approach discussed involves seeking liquidity at identified highs, reinforcing the importance of understanding past price action when making trading decisions.

Recognizing Market Structure Shifts

A significant low within a 40-day range is noted as a pivotal point where market structure may shift directionally opposite to prior trends established in November.

Analysis of Australian Dollar Movements

Understanding Price Movements and Ranges

The discussion highlights the significance of price ranges, indicating that a big move may occur if certain characteristics are present outside the recent 60-day lookback period.

Candlestick Analysis of the Australian Dollar

Analyzing the Australian dollar candlestick reveals a significant level at 70.50, which corresponds to an old low from February 2016 and indicates potential price movement.

The last down candle before a major upward movement is noted for its range, emphasizing how prior price movements can influence future trends.

Identifying Key Price Points

The high from previous candles is deemed significant; it serves as a sensitive point in trading decisions, particularly regarding bullish order blocks identified in past down candles.

A bullish order block is also identified from December 2016's last down candle, suggesting that these historical points will be crucial for future trading strategies.

Historical Context and Market Behavior

Observations indicate that when prices hit the 70.150 level previously, they rebounded aggressively, hinting at underlying fundamental factors influencing this behavior.

The analysis notes two taps on this level on a weekly basis before moving out, suggesting traders will focus on trading above candle bodies and wicks to gauge future movements.

Future Projections for Australian Dollar Trading

There’s potential for prices to rise towards the bearish order block established in October 2016, with projections estimating movement up to levels between 75.70 and 75.00.

Insights into Trading Strategies

Importance of Chart Analysis

A detailed examination of charts related to the March contract for Australian futures markets shows similarities with forex trading but offers insights not typically visible in standard forex analysis.

Misunderstandings in Trading Knowledge

Critique is directed towards common misconceptions propagated by online sources about forex trading; emphasizes learning from foundational texts like Larry Williams' book on commodities trading.

Value of Open Interest Data

Open interest is highlighted as one of the most misunderstood data points in trading; understanding it can provide traders with unique opportunities within market dynamics.

Role of Smart Money in Market Control

Discussion centers around 'smart money' controlling market prices driven by greed; banks aim to profit through buying/selling money rather than harming retail traders directly.

Speculation and Market Dynamics

Understanding Market Dynamics and Open Interest

The Misconception of Trading Patterns

Many trading strategies lead to losses because they are based on misconceptions about market behavior rather than actual market mechanics.

Complex patterns like "wolf waves" or "harmonic crabs" do not dictate price movement; instead, prices are influenced by large fund orders and open float on higher time frame charts.

Role of Bank-Level Traders

Price movements allow bank-level traders to build positions, indicating that central banks play a crucial role in market pricing.

Identifying when smart money is buying can be done by observing specific price levels and patterns over time.

Importance of Support Levels

A significant pattern occurs every three months at major support levels, which traders should note for potential bullish expectations.

Historical data shows that certain price levels, such as 7150, have been tested multiple times, providing insight into future price actions.

Analyzing Open Interest Trends

As prices drop, open interest may decline; understanding this relationship is key to interpreting market health.

Larry Williams emphasizes that declining open interest during consolidation phases indicates a weakening trend rather than strength.

Central Banks as Liquidity Providers

Central banks act as liquidity providers in the currency markets; their actions directly impact open interest and overall market dynamics.

A significant drop in open interest while prices remain sideways suggests that central banks are reducing exposure rather than supporting buyers.

Implications of Open Interest Changes

A notable decrease in open interest (15% or more drop) during sideways trading can signal bullish conditions due to reduced selling pressure from liquidity providers.

Understanding Market Dynamics and Open Interest

The Role of Open Interest in Market Analysis

Discussion on how open interest increases during bearish markets, indicating heavy net selling at the central bank level.

Insight into commercial traders building short positions; analyzing open interest can reveal their sell programs by correlating price highs with peaks in open interest.

Explanation of how declining open interest during a downtrend suggests that hedgers are covering their short positions, reflecting profit-taking behavior.

Price Movements and Market Sentiment

Description of rapid price declines as a strategy to deter buyers, emphasizing the control over market sentiment through significant sell-offs.

Observations on how aggressive downward movements can erase bullish sentiment and create uncertainty about support levels until reaching critical points like 71.

Support Levels and Central Bank Strategies

Analysis of the importance of the 71 support level based on historical data; expectations for a bounce due to previous trading patterns observed in weekly charts.

Notation on a significant decline in open interest as an indicator that central banks are concluding their sell programs, preparing for potential buyer influx.

Implications for Forex Trading

Examination of recent price actions within forex trading contexts; identifying key candles that signal potential bullish order blocks for future buying opportunities.

Bullish Sentiment in Australian Dollar Analysis

Market Sentiment and Price Action

The speaker expresses a bullish sentiment regarding the Australian dollar, indicating potential for price retracement before further upward movement.

A down candle is identified as a new bullish order block, with its high at 70.350, which serves as a significant price level for future movements.

Context of Price Movements

The analysis suggests that the Australian dollar is expected to close within a specific range and potentially reach higher levels due to favorable market conditions.

The mean threshold from previous candles indicates an upward trajectory, aiming for buy stops above recent highs.

Liquidity and Market Structure

Discussion on liquidity focuses on equal highs; the speaker believes that prices will surpass these levels rather than just reaching them.

The proximity of candle heights is emphasized as indicative of liquidity zones where buying pressure may emerge.

Support Levels and Trading Strategy

A new down candle has become a support level; any trades below this should be monitored closely for potential reversals.

Reference points are established for traders to watch, emphasizing the importance of being prepared for both upward and downward movements.

Price Movement Expectations

The bullish order block's integrity is crucial; if it holds, it signals strong buying interest from banks at lower price levels.

Recent price action shows aggressive moves through key levels, reinforcing expectations of continued bullish behavior in the market.

Future Projections for Australian Dollar

Historical Context and Fair Value Gaps

Prices have recently closed within a fair value gap from December 2016, suggesting potential upward momentum towards 75.25 or higher.

Long-Term Objectives

If bullish trends continue, targets could extend up to 76.50 based on current market dynamics and historical patterns observed.

Understanding Market Shifts

Emphasis on recognizing quarterly shifts in market structure that can lead to significant trading opportunities if properly aligned with broader trends.

Retail vs. Professional Trading Mindsets

A contrast is drawn between retail trader perspectives (e.g., Fibonacci retracements leading to bearish assumptions), versus professional insights focusing on underlying market strength.

Conclusion: Learning from Market Dynamics

Understanding the Path to Becoming a Large Fund Trader

The Journey from Small to Large Fund Trading

Every large fund trader starts as a low-end trader, emphasizing that all traders begin at the same grassroots level. No one becomes a large fund trader overnight; it requires time and experience.

Aspiring traders are encouraged to prove their trading skills before attempting to manage larger funds. Success in trading is not accidental; it demands effort and dedication.

To transition into larger trading positions, individuals must adhere to specific guidelines and demonstrate consistent performance over time.

Large fund traders often place their stop orders where many others do, but they have significantly more capital at risk compared to smaller traders who trade micro or mini lots.

While small traders may feel invisible in the market, large pending orders can be identified above old highs and below lows within recent timeframes, indicating potential market movements.

Analyzing Market Structures for Future Moves

Identifying shifts in market structure allows traders to anticipate significant moves by looking back 60 days from key delineation points.

Utilizing algorithms like IPDA helps determine where recent stops are located, which can inform future trading strategies based on cleared levels of support and resistance.

Once both sides of the marketplace have been wiped out and equilibrium is reached, identifying new range highs and lows outside of the last 60 days can signal upcoming significant price movements.

Combining insights from weekly and monthly charts enhances decision-making processes for anticipating market trends; patience is crucial as these patterns unfold over time.

The Importance of Patience in Trading

Many aspiring traders exhibit impatience during mentorship programs, seeking immediate results rather than understanding that mastery takes time.

Traders often want quick answers without fully grasping the context behind market movements; this impatience can lead to missed opportunities later on.

Those who rush through learning may regret not paying attention to critical chart analyses shared during mentorship sessions, potentially missing out on valuable insights throughout their trading careers.

Commitment to Learning and Growth

Successful trading requires commitment; participants must engage actively with mentorship content rather than expecting instant success without effort.

Regular attendance in live sessions is essential for gaining practical knowledge; recorded sessions serve as supplementary resources but cannot replace active participation in real-time discussions.

Intraday Trading Insights

Understanding Market Dynamics

The speaker discusses the importance of daily entries in intraday trading, particularly focusing on currency pairs like the Euro and British Pound.

Emphasizes the significance of being a buyer or seller during key market sessions such as London and New York, specifically mentioning dollar CAD and Aussie dollar.

Highlights how specific levels are crucial for trading decisions, urging traders to pay attention to these indicators rather than passively waiting for signals.

Analyzing Market Behavior

The speaker reflects on past trading activities from September, illustrating how they identified highs and lows effectively.

Encourages traders to focus on market movements daily, applying learned strategies to understand price behavior at critical levels.

Stresses that understanding market mechanics is essential for all types of traders, regardless of their experience level.

Building Confidence in Trading

Discusses the balance between confidence and arrogance in trading; warns against letting success define one's approach.

Advises preparation for potential market shifts while maintaining humility throughout the trading process.

Patience in Trading Strategy

The speaker notes that patience is vital when waiting for markets to reach certain levels; emphasizes learning from hindsight examples.

Points out that many educators struggle with conveying the necessity of patience required in trading strategies.

Identifying Key Levels

Discusses identifying high and low points over various time frames (20, 40, 60 days), which helps locate liquidity pools within charts.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Current Market Sentiment

The speaker questions whether the audience is feeling bullish or bearish today, indicating a focus on current market sentiment.

Acknowledges that some may feel bearish, suggesting a need for accountability in trading decisions.

Understanding Price Ranges

Emphasizes the importance of recognizing price ranges to determine if one knows what they are doing in trading.

Discusses observing price behavior around equilibrium over the last 20 days, highlighting patterns from previous 40 and 60-day periods.

Analyzing Historical Data

Encourages traders to look back at historical data (60 days) to understand past price movements and identify trading ranges.

Suggests dividing observed ranges in half to find equilibrium points necessary for current trading strategies.

Daily Chart Observations

Notes that since January, the dollar index has been stagnant, with daily candles showing minimal movement.

Mentions that significant market manipulation could change this trend but requires careful observation of high-impact news events.

Importance of News Events

Highlights how news impacts market behavior over varying timeframes (days to weeks), stressing the need for awareness of these influences.

Stresses that understanding higher time frames is crucial for effective trading strategies and decision-making.

Simplifying Trading Approaches

Warns against overcomplicating trading strategies, especially for new traders who may struggle with complex concepts.

Urges traders to utilize historical ranges effectively while identifying gaps and fair value areas within their charts.

Execution of Trading Strategies

Points out that it’s up to individual traders to execute learned strategies based on institutional reference points discussed in webinars or workshops.

Cautions against assuming outcomes based solely on past highs without considering broader market dynamics and timing issues.

Building a Trading Log

Recommends maintaining a running log of trades by printing charts daily, which can help recognize repeating patterns in price movements.

Understanding Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

Analyzing Historical Data for Trading Insights

The discussion begins with the importance of using historical data as a reference point for trading decisions, particularly focusing on weekends.

Emphasis is placed on tracking dates to understand market movements, specifically referencing January 12, 2017.

The speaker highlights the significance of analyzing past observations to inform future trading strategies.

A methodical approach is suggested where traders look back at how long it took for certain price levels to develop in the market.

The algorithmic response of assets is discussed, emphasizing the need to identify peak trading values.

Understanding Broker and Central Bank Interventions

Attention is drawn to how brokers manipulate prices near significant levels, which can affect trader positions.

It’s noted that brokers may widen spreads significantly during critical market movements (50 to 100 pips).

The relationship between central banks and futures contracts is explored, particularly regarding the Australian dollar's pricing dynamics.

The speaker clarifies that while brokers influence prices, they do not cause extreme volatility in underlying futures contracts directly.

Importance of Futures Contracts in Forex Trading

A call for clarity in understanding futures contracts as foundational knowledge for forex trading is made.

The Australian USD pair will be used as a case study to illustrate these concepts practically.

There’s an emphasis on integrating knowledge from both futures and forex markets for comprehensive analysis.

Bridging Knowledge Gaps Between Futures and Forex Traders

Acknowledgment that many traders may not have considered how futures impact forex trading decisions or vice versa.

It's crucial for traders to understand signals based on both markets to gain a complete picture of potential trades.

Why Was September So Powerful?

Understanding Price Predictability in Forex

The speaker discusses the significance of September, suggesting that its power should be evident through price reading.

Emphasizes that price predictability is a key aspect of trading, particularly in the context of Australian currency leading against the dollar.

Highlights that if short-term predictions are reliable, then long-term forecasts should also align with these trends.

Points out limitations in obtaining accurate data from foreign exchange markets, especially regarding higher time frames and volume metrics.

Mentions the importance of understanding market structure and how it influences trading decisions.

Analyzing Market Structure and Data Ranges

The speaker instructs to examine a specific data range over 60 days for better insights into market behavior.

Discusses bearish market structures related to futures contracts and their implications on trading strategies.

Notes the significance of previous contract expirations (e.g., December's low), which can inform current trading positions.

Reflecting on past lows helps traders understand potential future movements within the market context.

Encourages focusing on recent trends while considering historical data to build a comprehensive understanding.

Strategies for Identifying Trends

Advises traders to analyze bullish or bearish shifts based on recent three-month performance indicators.

Suggestion to identify highs and lows over various time frames (20, 40, 60 days), which aids in trend analysis for new traders.

Discusses how retail traders might misinterpret downtrends by fixating on old lows rather than adapting to current market conditions.

Stresses the need for patience as markets fluctuate; traders must endure periods where prices may not align with expectations.

Market Shifts and Currency Analysis

Understanding Recent Market Trends

The importance of the dollar is emphasized, indicating its significant role in current market dynamics.

The speaker has not yet visited certain markets but is making predictions based on recent shifts.

A reference to a notable market shift occurring over the last three months, suggesting historical patterns may repeat.

Discussion about the Australian dollar's performance since November, hinting at critical changes in its valuation.

Critics are skeptical about the Australian dollar's trajectory, pointing out that hindsight often provides clarity on past movements.

Analyzing Currency Mechanics

The speaker addresses skepticism regarding currency trading and emphasizes understanding mechanics behind price movements.

Hindsight is described as valuable for analyzing why currencies have moved in specific directions.

Insights into what led to current beliefs about currency trends will be shared for educational purposes.

Clarification on data ranges and their implications for predicting future price movements is provided.

Discussion of upside objectives related to currency trading strategies.

Strategic Focus on Currencies

Emphasis on leadership roles of certain currencies over specified time frames (20 days, 40 days).

The speaker questions why focus is placed specifically on the Australian dollar rather than others like the New Zealand dollar.

Acknowledgment that different currencies serve distinct purposes within trading strategies.

Inquiry into contrasting price actions when identifying order blocks for buying or selling decisions across various currencies.

Encouragement to practice identifying areas of buy stops or sell stops in multiple currency pairs.

Learning and Implementation

Importance of continuous practice in recognizing market patterns and avoiding complacency highlighted by the speaker.

Warning against missing learning opportunities by not engaging with presented scenarios actively.

Urging participants to maximize their learning experience during mentorship sessions despite personal obligations or impatience.

Assurance that comprehensive information will be shared throughout mentorship sessions, drawing from extensive experience.

Reiteration that practical implementation of learned concepts is crucial for success in trading.

Historical Context and Future Predictions

Reference made to a significant market shift observed back in November 2016 as a point of analysis for current trends.

Speaker suggests using historical insights to inform present-day trading strategies without relying solely on past events.

Emphasizes the need for diligent study of daily charts to understand ongoing market conditions effectively.

Highlights challenges faced by traders due to major work displacement caused by large players' activities in the market.

Understanding Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

Analyzing Historical Data for Trading Success

The discussion emphasizes the importance of reviewing every possible trading scenario from the last three to six months to enhance decision-making.

Traders are encouraged to identify high-probability trades, which can be visually recognized through historical data analysis.

A significant market shift is highlighted, suggesting that traders should align their strategies with smart money movements observed over time.

The speaker critiques common trading education on platforms like YouTube, asserting that many fail to recognize the influence of smart money in market trends.

It’s suggested that traders focus on daily orders rather than short-term charts to better anticipate market movements.

Time Frame Considerations in Trading

The speaker expresses skepticism about using Elliott Wave Theory on shorter time frames, advocating instead for a more objective approach using five-minute charts.

Identifying liquidity pools is crucial; gaps in price action may indicate areas not influenced by smart money.

There’s an assertion that price movements are predetermined rather than random, emphasizing the need for traders to understand underlying algorithms driving prices.

Traders are advised to look back at historical data (20-day, 40-day, and 60-day ranges), as this can provide insights into future trading opportunities.

Understanding structural shifts in the market is essential; recognizing these shifts can prevent wasted time and resources.

Recognizing Patterns and Market Manipulation

The significance of quarterly shifts in market structure is discussed; these patterns often repeat themselves and should be closely monitored by traders.

Smart money entities manipulate markets based on greed and financial motivations, leading to less visible but impactful changes in direction.

Market Structure and Trading Insights

Understanding Market Trends

The discussion emphasizes that as February approaches, market movements may not need to be drastic, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.

Sharing insights with others can lead to counter-trend moves, indicating the importance of awareness in trading strategies.

The speaker notes that common knowledge about market conditions can influence trading decisions, particularly during periods of consolidation.

Profitability and Market Participation

There is a caution against participating in trades without understanding the underlying market dynamics; being part of a profitable group is highlighted as essential.

The speaker contrasts informed trading with gambling, stressing that successful traders analyze market structures rather than relying on chance.

Price Control and Market Shifts

A shift in individuals controlling price indicates significant changes in market structure; recognizing these shifts is crucial for traders.

The concept of liquidity pools is introduced, where taking out buy stop orders can signal potential profitability for traders who understand this mechanism.

Learning from Market Structures

Traders are encouraged to learn from demo accounts to understand what causes market movements and how to capitalize on them effectively.

Identifying successful strategies over time helps build confidence; the speaker suggests looking back at previous months for patterns.

Importance of Timing and Analysis

Recognizing when a market structure shift occurs requires patience and analysis over several months; it’s vital to pinpoint where trends begin.

Confidence levels among traders can significantly increase when they align their strategies with interbank price delivery (IPDA), enhancing their decision-making process.

Risk Management in Trading

The discussion highlights the necessity of understanding risks associated with trading decisions; misreading signals can lead to poor outcomes.

Understanding Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

Importance of Time Frames in Trading

Emphasizes the significance of daily and quarterly charts for traders, suggesting that consistent analysis is crucial.

Highlights how focusing on a weekly chart can streamline decision-making by directing attention to key trends.

Notes that while quarterly shifts are essential, they may not always align with lower time frames, leading to potential confusion.

Discusses the necessity of looking back at past data to inform future trading decisions, particularly within specific ranges.

Analyzing Price Movements

Encourages traders to utilize tutorials and resources available online to better understand market algorithms.

Mentions the challenge of keeping up with incoming data and liquidity changes, which can affect trading strategies.

Points out the importance of identifying sell stops and buy stops over a 60-day period for effective trading decisions.

Understanding Liquidity and Market Gaps

Describes how a lack of understanding about liquidity voids can lead to poor trading outcomes.

Stresses the need for higher time frame analysis (monthly, weekly, daily charts) to identify price delivery patterns effectively.

Critiques common teaching methods in trading that overlook optimal entry points from an institutional perspective.

Equilibrium Price Points

Explains how understanding where prices should return helps traders anticipate market movements based on historical data.

Suggests analyzing past equilibrium levels can provide insights into current market conditions and potential retracements.

Long-Term Trading Perspectives

Discusses the cyclical nature of markets and how certain phenomena repeat over time, offering predictive insights for traders.

Advises maintaining a three-month horizon when analyzing daily charts to avoid getting lost in short-term fluctuations.

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Overview of Market Trends

The market could remain in a sideways trend for an extended period, indicating potential consolidation before any significant movement.

The speaker expresses a firm belief that the market will shift towards the sell side, suggesting a bearish outlook.

Trading Techniques and Time Horizons

Emphasis on identifying lows outside the last 60 days as a key trading strategy, with an offer to teach this method.

A three-month horizon is recommended for implementing trading strategies, allowing traders to plan effectively.

Intermarket Analysis and Diversification

Intermarket analysis is highlighted as crucial for discovering trading opportunities across various markets.

Different trading disciplines are discussed, including long-term ideas from commodities and short-term strategies in equities and bonds.

Quarterly Shifts and Specialization

Market shifts occur quarterly, providing insights into specific opportunities that may arise during these periods.

The importance of specialization in different asset classes (e.g., crude oil or gold) is emphasized to enhance trading effectiveness.

Role of Technology in Trading Decisions

Understanding algorithmic influences on market movements can provide context for traders' decisions regarding price direction.

System analysts play a critical role in determining how external factors like crude oil prices affect currencies such as the Canadian dollar.

Data Utilization in Trading Strategies

Analysts must identify relevant data points that influence currency movements to make informed decisions about trades.

Maintaining consistency in decision-making processes helps traders align with institutional behaviors rather than reacting impulsively to daily fluctuations.

Understanding Market Dynamics

The Importance of Information Processing

Discussion on the necessity of holding a comprehensive array of information to process and perform calculations effectively in trading.

Emphasis on the need for understanding various concepts to grasp market operations fully.

Epiphany in Learning

A personal realization about the importance of foundational knowledge gained from teaching sessions held in February, March, and April.

Recognition that ideas presented will often repeat, highlighting the significance of retaining a general understanding of core concepts.

Application of Knowledge

Insight into how being lost can hinder learning; reaching out for help is crucial when struggling with complex topics.

The speaker reflects on applying learned concepts daily, noting that ambiguity exists in price movements but can be understood through data analysis.

Understanding Price Movements

Clarification that randomness in price movement can be analyzed to identify significant highs and lows within market trends.

Discussion on identifying specific order blocks and their relevance to trading decisions, emphasizing the importance of context over arbitrary choices.

Analyzing Historical Data

Explanation of looking back at historical price data (20, 40, or 60 days back) to inform current trading strategies.

Insights into how large fund stops create liquidity pools which are essential for understanding market behavior during trades.

Institutional Trading Insights

Commentary on institutional trading practices versus retail trading misunderstandings; many traders lack awareness about market dynamics at a fundamental level.

Critique regarding common misconceptions among traders about currency movements based solely on personal accounts or broker actions.

Learning from Mistakes

Encouragement for traders to analyze their mistakes critically; understanding what went wrong is vital for growth and improvement in trading strategies.

Understanding the Learning Process in Trading

The Importance of Experience and Mistakes

Being present in the learning environment is beneficial for traders.

Engaging with practical exercises helps align theoretical knowledge with real-world application.

Making mistakes during practice is essential for growth; it allows traders to learn from their errors.

The process of learning does not detract from one's development but rather enhances it.

Misconceptions About Retail Traders

Many individuals who leave trading do not understand the value of experience and often lack a clear identification of their goals.

There is a tendency among some to expect information to be spoon-fed, which can hinder personal growth in trading skills.

Analyzing Market Opportunities

Successful traders analyze market conditions and identify profitable opportunities between price points.

High-minded trading involves taking calculated risks while maintaining low exposure to potential losses.

The Path to Becoming a Fund Manager

Transitioning into fund management requires active participation and cannot be achieved solely through passive learning methods like watching videos.

Aspiring fund managers must engage deeply with the material and practice consistently to develop their skills.

The Role of Algorithms in Trading

Understanding how algorithms influence market prices is crucial for effective trading strategies.

Understanding Price Delivery and Market Mechanics

The Importance of Lookback Periods

The speaker emphasizes the significance of understanding price value and mentions a lookback period for analysis, which can be 20, 40, or even 60 days.

They express their personal struggle with coding and patience in analyzing market data over these periods.

Daily Recap and Chart Analysis

A daily recap video is mentioned as a tool for learning, where the speaker reflects on past market movements.

They highlight the importance of reviewing charts to understand what has already occurred in the market.

Emotional Responses to Trading

The speaker shares their mixed emotions—nervousness and excitement—when engaging with live trading sessions.

They encourage looking at various currency pairs and commodities to gain broader insights into market behavior.

Recognizing Patterns in Trading

The discussion shifts to recognizing specific patterns that lead to successful trades, emphasizing that there is no randomness in price movements.

The speaker notes how understanding these patterns helps identify future setups more effectively.

Role of Technology in Trading

Artificial intelligence (AI) is introduced as a significant factor influencing trading efficiency by predicting price levels before they are reached.

The clarity provided by technology allows traders to make informed decisions without emotional interference.

Mastering Interbank Price Delivery Algorithms

Understanding interbank price delivery algorithms is crucial for traders; it aids them in knowing when to act based on market signals.

Traders are encouraged to focus on effective strategies rather than getting distracted by external noise from other industry players.

Developing as a Trader

Understanding Algorithmic Responses

The speaker emphasizes the importance of personal development as a trader, rather than solely focusing on market events.

An algorithm's analysis typically looks back over a 60-day period to inform trading decisions.

Relying exclusively on historical data may not always yield satisfactory results due to the complexity of market dynamics.

The speaker shares an experience from November, highlighting how looking back at past data can generate numerous questions and scenarios.

Many traders struggle with overzealousness when analyzing historical ranges, which can cloud judgment.

Navigating Market Scenarios

Traders must have faith in their strategies while also being aware of stop-loss placements around significant highs and lows.

The speaker reassures that with practice and aggressive searching for opportunities outside the typical 60-day range, traders can achieve success.

Evidence of market control is crucial; if it exists, prices will likely move significantly beyond established ranges.

The discussion includes identifying potential explosive moves based on previous price actions within the last 60 days.

Strategic Trading Insights

Understanding where stops are placed—both above old highs and below old lows—is essential for anticipating market movements.

Traders should be prepared for significant price runs based on liquidity needs observed in major trading sessions like London’s opening.

A focus on bullish order blocks or optimal trade entries is necessary when considering trades within a 60-day lookback period.

Understanding Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

Importance of Timeframes in Trading

Traders are advised to adjust their focus to a 60-day forward timeframe, emphasizing the significance of upcoming market conditions.

A vertical line is used as a reference point for price movements, indicating that traders should monitor how prices interact with this line.

The speaker notes an influx of questions regarding market starts, suggesting that understanding these patterns is crucial for effective trading.

Analyzing Historical Data

As October approaches, it becomes essential to analyze historical data from the last 60 days to predict future trends.

The importance of identifying intermediate-term highs or lows before November is highlighted, as these levels will influence future trading decisions.

Key historical price points from January are noted as influential for current trading strategies.

Liquidity and Market Behavior

Understanding liquidity pools is critical; they can create significant market movements that traders must be aware of.

The speaker emphasizes the need to study past price actions within a 40-day range to identify potential buy and sell stops effectively.

Utilizing Technical Analysis

Traders should pay close attention to the highest high and lowest low within recent months, as these levels serve as critical reference points for setting buy and sell orders.

Current market conditions do not provide clear directional bias yet; thus, traders must rely on established reference points for decision-making.

Strategies for Different Trading Styles

Various trading styles (day trading, swing trading, options trading) require different approaches based on current market dynamics and historical data analysis.

For day traders, understanding intraday spikes (10 to 20 pips above or below key levels) is vital for making informed trades.

Long-Term Perspective on Trading Education

The speaker stresses the importance of looking back at past data while also preparing for future moves in the market over extended periods (120 days).

Market Analysis and Trading Strategies

Understanding Market Trends

The speaker introduces a discussion on market trends, emphasizing the importance of identifying old lows to predict future movements.

A focus is placed on determining the lowest low within the last 20 days as a critical indicator for traders.

The analysis extends to examining the lowest lows over a 40-day period, suggesting that this data is essential for making informed trading decisions.

The speaker warns about potential information overload due to the volume of data traders need to process regarding highs and lows in the market.

There’s an indication that upcoming months will require traders to reassess their strategies based on historical highs and lows.

Preparing for Future Trades

The speaker mentions plans for more live sessions in March, indicating a shift back to regular trading activities after analyzing past data.

Emphasis is placed on identifying key price points outside of a 60-day range, which are crucial for setting up future trades.

The necessity of building daily time frame lessons is highlighted, aiming to enhance understanding of market dynamics over different periods.

Traders are encouraged to apply insights from weekly charts based on monthly trends, particularly in commodities markets.

A specific focus is given to foreign exchange markets, where old lows may not be immediately visible but are vital for strategic planning.

Analyzing Price Movements

The discussion includes hypothetical scenarios related to significant lower lows in commodities and how they affect market behavior.

Open interest analysis is introduced as a method for predicting price movements based on historical boundaries set by previous months' performance.

Traders are advised to look out for common knowledge indicators that can guide them towards profitable price points in their trading strategies.

Insights into institutional order flow provide directionality in trading decisions, helping traders understand where prices might head next.

Market Dynamics and Risk Management

Understanding Market Movements

The discussion begins with the notion that if market participants are genuinely buying, there will be a significant drop in prices, particularly around mid-November.

A potential price drop of 15% is anticipated within a 20-day timeframe leading up to November, indicating a critical support level established earlier in the month.

The concept of "turtle soup sell" is introduced as a significant trading setup that could emerge if the market shows signs of selling off within this range.

Open Interest and Market Behavior

High open interest suggests substantial shifts in market dynamics; however, it can lead to periods of consolidation rather than immediate action.

The speaker emphasizes that understanding open interest is crucial for predicting future price movements and potential sell-offs.

Long-Term Trends and Quarterly Shifts

There’s an assertion that long-term trends can be forecasted up to 40 days out from current prices, with quarterly shifts being pivotal for traders.

The importance of funding positions during these shifts is highlighted as essential for managing risk effectively.

Risks Associated with Global Events

A hypothetical scenario involving geopolitical tensions (e.g., nuclear threats) illustrates how external events can drastically affect market stability.

Historical references such as September 11th and Brexit are used to demonstrate how sudden global events can create volatility in markets.

Anticipating Market Changes

Traders are encouraged to look for signs indicating when liquidity may shift or when major changes might occur within the next 20 to 40 days.

Understanding Market Movements and Indicators

Quarterly Discussions on Market Shifts

The discussion emphasizes that market shifts do not occur in straight lines, indicating the complexity of trading patterns.

Evidence of these shifts can be observed in open interest data, which reflects market sentiment and potential price movements.

Analyzing Significant Price Moves

A focus is placed on analyzing price movements 20, 40, and 60 days back to identify significant highs and lows that influence current trading decisions.

These reference points are crucial for understanding where equilibrium lies within the market dynamics.

Monthly Trading Strategies

The speaker suggests a collective agreement among traders to look back at a maximum of 60 days for identifying significant moves at the start of each month.

An exercise is proposed where traders mark their charts with vertical lines at the beginning of each month to track stochastic indicators effectively.

Utilizing Technical Indicators

The importance of using various technical indicators like Larry Williams' accumulation distribution is highlighted for better decision-making in trades.

Traders are encouraged to analyze relationships between closing prices and opening prices across different pairs to gauge market trends.

Practical Application of Stochastic Analysis

The speaker discusses placing vertical lines on charts based on stochastic indicators to visualize potential divergences effectively.

Emphasis is placed on conducting studies after observing market movements rather than before, as this provides clearer insights into trading conditions.

Insights from Historical Data

Reflections on past experiences reveal how historical data can inform future trading strategies, particularly regarding oversold conditions identified by Williams' Percent R indicator.

Understanding when specific market phenomena occur helps traders anticipate future movements based on established patterns.

Market Dynamics and Trading Strategies

Understanding Market Trends

The speaker discusses the significance of a specific chart related to market trends, emphasizing its relevance on the 60th day of analysis.

They express a desire to have highlighted commodity price charts more prominently in their teaching for the month.

The speaker mentions using a commodity trend service, indicating that many traders may overlook critical data points.

Trade Timing and Order Management

A discussion about market behavior reveals that significant shifts can occur every 20, 40, or 60 days, suggesting a cyclical nature in trading patterns.

The importance of identifying quarterly shifts is highlighted as essential for effective trading strategies.

Dynamic Nature of Orders

The speaker emphasizes that trades are dynamic; orders can change based on market conditions and trader decisions.

They encourage traders to reflect on past trades and how often they hit stop-losses, which indicates the need for adaptive strategies.

Analyzing Price Movements

A focus on retracement and correction is discussed, with an emphasis on understanding why certain price movements occur at specific times.

The speaker notes that current trading levels may not align with historical data points, indicating potential misalignments in strategy.

Insights from Historical Data

There’s an exploration of how historical lows and highs inform current trading decisions; recognizing these patterns can lead to better forecasting.

A pivotal moment occurs when the speaker realizes the importance of analyzing data over a 40-day period to identify turning points in the market.

Emotional Responses in Trading

The emotional aspect of trading is addressed; feelings of euphoria or fear can significantly impact decision-making processes during critical moments.

Market Trends and Liquidity Analysis

Overview of Metal Prices

Discussion on the rising prices of metals, including silver, palladium, and platinum, observed over a 40-day period.

Notable fluctuations in grade copper prices are anticipated based on data trends.

Commodity Price Movements

Mention of cotton and lumber markets, indicating that these commodities exhibit price changes every three months.

Speculation about future pricing for orange juice is introduced.

Market Dynamics and Patterns

The speaker emphasizes that market movements are influenced by underlying factors that either attract or repel prices at certain levels.

Once a significant price level is identified, it becomes a reference point that traders cannot ignore.

Understanding Market Liquidity

The importance of recognizing repeating patterns in market behavior as they relate to large fund liquidity is highlighted.

A shift towards longer-term analysis (monthly and yearly moves) is suggested to understand market dynamics better.

Analyzing Historical Data

Encouragement to conduct a short exercise using interest rates as an example to analyze historical price movements across various assets.

The speaker advises looking back at past rallies and declines over specific time frames (20 days, 60 days).

Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Fluctuations

Evaluating Price Levels

Emphasis on identifying long-term trends through fair value gaps and equilibrium points over extended periods (5 to 10 years).

Short-term price movements are deemed insignificant when viewed against the backdrop of long-term charts.

Macro Fundamentals Impacting Trading Decisions

Traders should consider macroeconomic fundamentals when assessing whether an asset is overbought or oversold.

Interest rates serve as critical indicators for determining real market conditions regarding overbought or oversold scenarios.

The Importance of Historical Context in Trading

Utilizing Historical Indicators

The speaker critiques reliance on short-term indicators like the 40-day range while advocating for deeper historical analysis.

Understanding where current prices stand relative to historical highs and lows can inform trading strategies effectively.

Institutional Insights

Discussion around institutional overflow indicates expectations for shifts in market dynamics based on historical data analysis.

Personal Journey in Trading Education

Learning from Experience

The speaker reflects on their personal journey toward becoming proficient in trading concepts through mentorship and self-study.

Understanding the Journey of Trading

Reflecting on Past Experiences

The speaker recalls significant moments from their trading journey, emphasizing the importance of reflection.

They mention that journaling is crucial for tracking progress and understanding past decisions.

A focus on revisiting experiences before reaching critical dates, such as December, highlights the need for preparation.

Passion for Teaching and Learning

The speaker expresses a deep passion for teaching others about trading strategies and market behaviors.

They reflect on their early experiences in trading, indicating a desire to share knowledge gained over time.

The significance of recognizing market highs and lows is emphasized as essential learning points.

Understanding Market Dynamics

Introduction to the IPDA algorithm, which aims to help traders identify liquidity in the market.

The speaker discusses how traders should analyze candle patterns to make informed decisions about price movements.

Emphasis on building a business through strategic trading rather than relying solely on employment.

Building a Legacy Through Trading

The concept of creating a legacy for one's family through successful trading practices is introduced.

Importance of understanding market lows and their implications for future trades is highlighted.

Analyzing Time Frames and Patterns

Discussion around different time frames (4-hour, 1-hour, 15-minute), showcasing how they affect trading strategies.

The speaker insists that there’s nothing random about market movements; everything follows certain patterns.

Recognizing Significant Market Shifts

Identifying turning points in the market can lead to substantial opportunities; these are not just coincidences but calculated events.

Traders must be aware of previous lows forming before making new trades; this requires careful analysis.

Anticipating Future Movements

Once traders understand past structures, they can anticipate future price movements more accurately.

Highlighting that significant moves occur regularly (every three months), traders should prepare accordingly.

Control Over Trading Decisions

Knowing when to enter or exit trades based on historical data gives traders ultimate control over their strategies.

Understanding Market Movements and Trading Strategies

Analyzing Recent Market Trends

The speaker contrasts recent market highs and lows, emphasizing the need to analyze current conditions rather than relying on past experiences.

There is a suggestion that traders should not expect straightforward answers or patterns from previous sessions.

A focus on trading ranges of 20, 40, and 60 is recommended for better decision-making in volatile markets.

Importance of Historical Context

Traders are encouraged to look beyond immediate price movements and consider historical data for clearer insights.

Understanding common goals in trading can help identify potential larger moves in either direction based on market characteristics.

The speaker warns against distractions from recent highs and lows, advocating for a disciplined approach to analyzing the last 60 days of market activity.

Candlestick Patterns and Their Significance

The discussion highlights the importance of candlestick patterns, particularly focusing on significant levels like the 70-50 mark.

Emphasis is placed on recognizing old down candles as critical indicators for future price movements.

The speaker stresses that failure to heed these insights may lead to missed opportunities in trading.

Discipline and Commitment in Trading

A strong message about the necessity of commitment to learning and applying trading strategies effectively is conveyed.

The significance of understanding high points as markers for potential market shifts is reiterated throughout this section.

Final Thoughts on Trading Strategy Implementation

Traders are reminded that they must be organized and disciplined to succeed; otherwise, they risk being overwhelmed by market fluctuations.

The last down candle's role as a decision-maker in trading strategy is emphasized, highlighting its importance before major upward movements occur.

Understanding Trading Psychology and Strategy

The Importance of Market Awareness

Emphasizes the necessity of being aware of significant buying and selling pressures in trading to avoid wasting time and money.

Highlights that without understanding market dynamics, traders are unlikely to achieve profitability.

Trading Discipline

Discusses the importance of maintaining discipline in trading strategies, noting that results can be inconsistent ("hit and miss").

Warns against overtrading, which can lead to emotional distress and poor decision-making.

Boring but Effective Trading

Advocates for a "boring" approach to trading, suggesting consistency is key for success.

Compares the ideal trading experience to a stable work environment where outcomes are predictable.

Analyzing Historical Data

Stresses the significance of analyzing past price action (e.g., from October 2016) to identify potential future trends.

Points out the relevance of focusing on bearish order blocks when planning trades based on historical data.

Future Projections in Forex Trading

Encourages traders to project future levels by looking back at previous data (20, 40, 60 days).

Mentions that overlaps in forex pairs can signal significant opportunities for traders.

Closing Thoughts on Trading Insights

Recap and Future Sessions

Concludes with an invitation for further engagement through social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter.