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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 07 - One Shot One Kill Model
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ICT Mentorship Core Content - Month 07 - One Shot One Kill Model

One Shot One Kill Trading Model Overview

Introduction to the Trading Model

  • The lesson focuses on the "One Shot One Kill" trading model, specifically for short-term trading within the ICT mentorship program.
  • Emphasizes the necessity of understanding macro conditions and reviewing data from the last 20, 40, and 60 trading days.

Key Concepts Required for Success

  • Highlights essential concepts such as PD array Matrix applied to both time and price, position trading logic, and swing trading module concepts.
  • Discusses intraday concepts including day-of-week patterns and using Fibonacci levels for targeting price points.

Importance of Seasonal Changes and COT Analysis

  • Stresses understanding seasonal changes that may influence directional setups in trading.
  • Mentions the importance of Commitment of Traders (COT) analysis and commercial hedging programs in making informed decisions.

Filling Knowledge Gaps

Prerequisites for Effective Learning

  • Advises that prior knowledge from free tutorials is crucial; those who haven't studied them will struggle with advanced concepts.
  • Clarifies that while intraday concepts enhance precision in trades, they are not strictly necessary for executing "One Shot One Kill" setups.

COT Analysis Insights

  • Introduces Larry Williams' contributions to COT analysis from the 1970s and how it has evolved through personal study.
  • Promises a practical example involving euro dollar setups later in the discussion.

Trading Procedure Explained

Steps in Executing Trades

  • Outlines a procedural approach to executing trades based on previously learned information; emphasizes modular learning's importance.
  • Acknowledges potential confusion due to information overload but reassures that structured learning will clarify these complexities.

Market Analysis Techniques

  • Describes initial steps like determining quarterly shifts and identifying higher timeframe PD arrays using past data ranges.
  • Discusses analyzing interest rate trends to gauge market movement potential, emphasizing consolidation versus trending markets.

Price Action Analysis

Swing Analysis Methodology

  • Explains how swing analysis involves classifying price action across various time frames down to a 60-minute chart.

Market Analysis and Projections for Euro Dollar

Understanding Price Swings and Market Templates

  • The analysis of the euro dollar involves breaking down price swings to project measurements and retracements.
  • Anticipation of specific weekly profiles is crucial, focusing on bearish market templates such as Monday high, Tuesday high, and Wednesday reversal scenarios.

Market Maker Manipulation Templates

  • Identifying market maker manipulation templates helps determine premium and discount ranges in price action.
  • A focus on volatility signals when a large range is likely to be created; small ranges indicate potential for larger movements.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis

  • COT data is used to confirm smart money actions by comparing commercials versus large traders and open interest.
  • Fibonacci levels are integrated with opposing PD arrays to confirm trade setups through inter-market analysis.

One Shot One Kill Setup for Euro Dollar

  • A specific setup was outlined for the euro dollar around March 2017, predicting a high at 109.08 which closely matched actual market behavior.
  • Projected low for the week was set at 106.50, with adjustments made based on real-time trading data throughout the week.

Seasonal Tendencies in Market Movements

  • Analyzing seasonal tendencies reveals patterns similar to sports schedules; markets exhibit predictable behaviors over time.
  • Strong seasonal tendencies were identified indicating a bearish trend for the euro dollar during late March into early April.

Unique Hedging Program Insights

  • The commitment of traders hedging program provides unique insights not commonly found online or in literature.

Understanding Commercial Hedging in Forex Trading

Overview of Trading Strategies

  • The speaker discusses their approach to trading pairs like Euro and Cable, emphasizing the speed and simplicity of their methods.
  • They suggest that group members with programming skills could develop tools for MT4 platforms to streamline trading processes.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Data Analysis

  • The speaker explains the importance of analyzing COT data, focusing on commercial traders rather than large traders or small speculators.
  • Commercial traders are likened to banks and institutions that produce or consume commodities, highlighting their role in market dynamics.

Visualizing Market Positions

  • The net positions of commercial traders are tracked using a graph, indicating bullish or bearish trends based on whether they are net long or short.
  • A specific zero line is introduced as a reference point for interpreting commercial positions over time.

Seasonal Tendencies in Trading

  • The speaker mentions seasonal tendencies related to hedging programs and open interest declines, which can inform significant trading decisions.
  • They emphasize the need to focus on markets that exhibit substantial movements during certain times of the year.

Current Market Observations

  • Analyzing recent trends, the speaker notes that while the Euro dollar reached higher highs, commercials were aggressively selling into these rallies.
  • This behavior suggests a probable decline in Euro prices as commercials hedge against rising prices by selling short.

Misinterpretation of COT Data

  • The speaker critiques traditional interpretations of COT data, noting discrepancies between reported positions and actual market actions by commercials.
  • They argue that understanding how to use this data effectively is crucial for successful trading strategies.

Learning from Mentorship Programs

  • Emphasizing mentorship benefits, the speaker encourages participants to learn about smart money concepts through detailed teachings planned for future sessions.

Market Analysis and Seasonal Tendencies

Overview of Market Movements

  • The recent market rally for the euro dollar was followed by a significant drop, indicating heavy net selling by commercial traders, which is interpreted as smart money shorting.

Justifying Market Trends

  • Charts showing commercial selling and seasonal tendencies do not guarantee market direction; technical alignment is essential to validate these observations.
  • Seasonal tendencies suggest probable outcomes but require supporting technical conditions to avoid misleading conclusions.

Analyzing the Dollar Index

  • The analysis focuses on the dollar index's movement towards an old high, which serves as a discount PD array for potential trading opportunities.
  • A specific level at 98.92 is identified as an old mitigation block, with rounding rules applied for price targets.

Price Dynamics and Liquidity Pools

  • The hourly chart illustrates potential weekly ranges, highlighting areas where liquidity pools exist such as bearish order blocks and fair value gaps.
  • Anticipation of a gap up in Sunday’s trading suggests bullish sentiment; if it doesn't occur, price may still expand into existing fair value gaps.

Understanding Premium and Discount Levels

Equilibrium Price Point

  • The equilibrium price point is established; prices above this point are considered premium while those below are discounts.

Algorithmic Trading Insights

  • Incorporating the PD array matrix allows traders to visualize premium and discount ranges effectively, aligning with algorithmic trading strategies.

Inter-Market Analysis: Euro Pound Relationship

Correlation Between Euro Dollar and Euro Pound

  • A strong correlation between the dollar index's bullish outlook and the euro pound's performance indicates potential weakness in euro dollar prices.

Identifying Key Trading Blocks

  • The euro pound has shown aggressive sell-offs leading to a logical bullish order block that aligns with previous downtrends.

Weekly Trading Characteristics

Weekly Bearish Order Block Analysis

  • Observations from Monday show that after opening with a gap, prices traded higher into a weekly bearish order block for the euro dollar.

Expectations Based on Historical Patterns

Euro Dollar Market Analysis

Overview of Market Trends

  • The euro dollar is expected to decline, with commercial entities supporting lower prices through heavy selling during rallies.
  • Initial assumptions suggest that Monday will likely be the high of the week; traders should prepare for potential price movements accordingly.

Trading Strategies for Weekly Highs

  • Traders are advised to trust market concepts and allow for some leeway in price movements, as Tuesday may still produce higher highs.
  • On Mondays, traders should look for intraday retracements after initial price increases, using tools like Fibonacci measurements to identify key levels.

Intraday Measurements and Projections

  • A specific swing measurement indicated a target level of 109.09; adjustments were made based on typical trading practices.
  • The analysis includes projecting weekly highs using intraday data combined with time-based strategies taught in upcoming sessions.

Understanding Market Dynamics

  • The initial rally observed was characterized as a false rally driven by heavy selling, creating an engineered premium for less informed traders.
  • Establishing a baseline at 106.50 allows traders to create a range between projected highs and lows, facilitating better market breakdown.

Liquidity and Price Action Analysis

  • Identifying liquidity voids within discount ranges helps inform trading decisions as markets transition from premium to discount zones.
  • Traders must remain committed to their strategies despite potential mid-week reversals or unexpected price movements.

Learning from Experience

  • Emphasizing the importance of experience over rigid methodologies; understanding market behavior requires studying historical data over long periods.

Lessons Learned and Future Steps

Importance of Revisiting Tutorials

  • The speaker emphasizes the value of revisiting free tutorials provided earlier, suggesting that they are foundational for understanding the upcoming mentorship content.
  • Participants who have not engaged with these tutorials multiple times are encouraged to do so at the end of the mentorship to solidify their learning.

Procedural Learning Approach

  • Acknowledgment that mastering trading requires significant effort and critical thinking; it is not a straightforward process.
  • By August, a specific procedural framework will guide participants through decision-making processes relevant to their trading discipline.

Trading Mindset Development

  • The speaker discusses starting from a higher time frame perspective, which is crucial for developing a trader's mindset.
  • This approach involves narrowing down strategies from position trading to swing trading, then to short-term and day trading.

Risk Management Techniques

  • Emphasis on achieving low-risk trades with tight precision as traders refine their strategies.
Playlists: 2017 ICT Private Mentorship Core Content Month 07
Video description

2017 Premium ICT Mentorship Core Content Video Lectures Audio and visuals are exactly as they were distributed in March 2017. CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.