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2025 Lecture Series - Keys To Success In Troubled Markets June 16, 2025
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2025 Lecture Series - Keys To Success In Troubled Markets June 16, 2025

How to Navigate Troubled Markets

Introduction to NASDAQ and Market Conditions

  • The discussion begins with a focus on the NASDAQ June contract, transitioning to the September 2025 delivery contract for future references.
  • The speaker introduces the concept of "troubled markets," emphasizing current market conditions influenced by recent global events.

Impact of Global Events

  • Acknowledgment of ongoing conflicts between countries, expressing sympathy for affected individuals and highlighting that wars yield no winners.
  • Definition of a troubled market: characterized by an unwillingness to move significantly higher or lower, often reflecting previous price ranges.

Analyzing Price Action

  • Examination of specific candlestick patterns from February 21st and February 24th, indicating significant price movements and targets reached.
  • Discussion on bullish guidance provided earlier for NASDAQ, noting how it rallied into identified gaps but faced challenges in maintaining upward momentum.

Liquidity Pools and Market Dynamics

  • Identification of liquidity pools within the market; emphasis on not attempting to pick tops but rather observing potential upward trends despite risks.
  • Caution regarding risk management due to high volatility stemming from geopolitical tensions affecting both international and domestic markets.

Quadrant Levels and Trading Strategy

  • Introduction of quadrant levels as key indicators for trading decisions; minor buy-side liquidity pools are noted without breaching certain thresholds.
  • Visualization techniques discussed for tracking price action across different time frames, emphasizing clarity in identifying significant levels.

Conclusion and Risk Awareness

  • Speculation about potential short-term market tops while remaining cautious about selling strategies; reiteration that this is not trade advice.

Market Analysis Insights and Strategies

Current Market Conditions

  • The analysis focuses on the consequent encroachment level from February 24th, indicating a high point in market activity. The speaker notes a chaotic price action environment.
  • Observations reveal multiple attempts to breach relative highs without breaking swing lows, suggesting underlying volatility and potential for significant market moves.
  • A "fake bull flag" is identified, highlighting retail traps that can mislead traders when combined with algorithmic price levels.

Trading Environment Challenges

  • The speaker warns of frustration among traders using traditional retail analysis methods due to current market unpredictability influenced by global events.
  • Describes the market as being in a "holding pattern," allowing sentiment to build while larger investors remain cautious about entering trades.

Strategic Adjustments for Traders

  • Emphasizes the need for nimbleness in trading strategies during turbulent times, advising against reliance on classic support and resistance concepts.
  • Encourages traders to think outside conventional frameworks, particularly regarding the February 24th date's significance in their analysis.

Market Structure and Trading Levels

  • Discusses how bearish markets exhibit specific signatures; if reacting off key levels, it may indicate further downward movement towards lower quadrant levels.
  • Identifies shifts in market structure as critical points where premium arrays can be utilized for short positions targeting low-hanging fruit objectives.

Technical Analysis Techniques

  • Explains volume imbalances and their role in identifying potential trade opportunities within gaps created by previous price actions.
  • Highlights the importance of recognizing bullish fair value gaps and minor buy-side movements as indicators of future price behavior.

Premium vs. Discount Concepts

  • Clarifies misconceptions around premium and discount theories; emphasizes that any level above a break in structure is considered premium for trading decisions.

Understanding Stop Loss Placement and Personal Trading Secrets

Liquidity and Market Behavior

  • Discussion on liquidity levels being tested, emphasizing the importance of observing retail bull flags and specific market levels from February 24th.
  • Mention of PD arrays as a tool for precise trading decisions, though the speaker refrains from teaching these methods to others.

Stop Loss Strategies

  • The speaker shares insights on placing stop losses just above critical levels, highlighting personal experiences in forex and futures trading.
  • Explanation of using candle highs and lows to determine bearish positions, focusing on maintaining trades below certain midpoints.

Personal Insights and Family News

  • The speaker expresses excitement about becoming a grandfather, sharing a personal anecdote that adds a human element to the discussion.
  • A heartfelt moment is shared regarding a gift related to the upcoming grandchild, illustrating the importance of family in the speaker's life.

Guarding Trading Knowledge

  • The speaker emphasizes that some trading strategies are too valuable to share publicly, indicating they are reserved for family only.
  • A strong stance is taken against sharing proprietary knowledge with students or the public due to past experiences with misuse.

Concerns About Misuse of Information

  • Warning against individuals who misinterpret or sell mentorship based on misunderstood concepts from his teachings.
  • Clarification that while he shares some insights, many details remain undisclosed to prevent abuse by those lacking proper trading skills.

Broker Relationships and Privacy

  • The speaker clarifies there are no affiliations with brokerage firms; thus, he does not promote any specific broker.

Trading Insights and Strategies

Understanding Stop Losses and Entry Points

  • The speaker clarifies that they are not affiliated with any programs, emphasizing their independent trading approach. They discuss the precision of their stop losses, which are based on entering within a volume imbalance while considering market lows to limit drawdown.
  • The speaker explains their strategy of setting levels for trades, typically placing stop losses two ticks above or below significant levels depending on whether they are long or short.

Analyzing Market Fluctuations

  • A return to the one-minute chart reveals a specific down-close candle that frames entry points. The speaker notes missed opportunities to add contracts due to rapid fluctuations in small time frames.
  • The analogy of driving is used to illustrate reaction times in trading; quicker reactions are possible in smaller vehicles compared to larger ones like tractor trailers, highlighting the challenges of trading on ultra-short time frames.

Measuring Volatility and Order Flow

Playlists: 2025 Lecture Series
Video description

Government Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.