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CATALONIA | A Defeated Secession?
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CATALONIA | A Defeated Secession?

Is Catalonia's Quest for Independence Over?

Overview of Catalonia's Independence Movement

  • The 2017 declaration of independence by Catalan leaders was short-lived, leading to the Spanish government's reassertion of control and the fleeing of key figures.
  • Despite a decline in support for independence, some argue that the movement is not entirely defeated.
  • Few territories have successfully achieved independence in recent decades, with most new countries emerging post-Cold War from the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia.

Historical Context of Catalonia

  • South Sudan is noted as the last new UN member state since 2011, highlighting a significant gap in new country formations.
  • Catalonia's attempt at independence in 2017 gained considerable global attention but ultimately failed.
  • Geographically located in northeastern Spain, Catalonia has a population of approximately 7.2 million and contributes significantly to Spain’s GDP.

Evolution of Autonomy and National Identity

  • Catalonia has a rich history dating back to ancient civilizations like the Phoenicians and Carthaginians, evolving through various political entities over centuries.
  • The region became part of the Carolingian Empire in the 9th century, establishing itself as an independent entity until its union with Aragon in the late 12th century.
  • The marriage between Ferdinand II and Isabella I marked a shift towards centralization under Spanish rule, gradually eroding Catalonian autonomy.

Modern Political Movements

  • The rise of nationalism in Europe during the 19th century sparked renewed calls for self-rule within Catalonia amidst industrial growth.
  • Although granted autonomy in 1932, it was revoked by Franco’s regime after the Spanish Civil War as part of efforts to suppress regional identities.

Recent Developments Post-Franco Era

  • Following Franco's death in 1975, a new constitution decentralized power again; by 1979, Catalonia regained its autonomy.
  • A statute passed in 2006 defined Catalonia as a nation and expanded governmental powers but faced backlash when parts were deemed unconstitutional by Spain’s Supreme Court in June 2010.

Escalation Towards Independence Referendum

  • Public outrage over constitutional rulings led to massive protests advocating for statehood; sentiment shifted towards favoring independence votes.
  • In response to government refusal for formal referendums, a non-binding poll held in November 2014 showed overwhelming support (81%) among participants for full independence.

The Pivotal Referendum of October 2017

  • After pro-independence victories in regional elections (2015), a binding referendum was scheduled for October 1st, despite strong opposition from Madrid.
  • The referendum proceeded amid police intervention; results indicated that while turnout was low (43%), an overwhelming majority (92%) voted for independence.

Catalonia's Quest for Independence: A Timeline of Events

The Declaration of Independence

  • On October 27, the Catalan Parliament declared independence from Spain, forming the Republic of Catalonia. This decision was deemed a disaster as it led to immediate rejection by international entities, including EU partners and the U.S., who chose to engage only with the Spanish government.

Spanish Government Response

  • Following the declaration, the Spanish government suspended Catalonia's autonomy using constitutional provisions and imposed direct rule. Arrest warrants were issued for pro-independence leaders, prompting several key figures, including Puigdemont, to flee abroad. This swift action resulted in the collapse of the secession effort within days.

Aftermath and New Elections

  • Despite being a significant constitutional crisis since Franco's dictatorship, Madrid quickly reasserted control. Fresh elections in December 2017 led to a new Catalan government formation; however, Puigdemont was blocked from returning from exile to resume his position.

Legal Consequences for Leaders

  • In October 2019, nine leaders involved in the independence attempt received long prison sentences from the Spanish Supreme Court. Hundreds more faced prosecution related to these events. By late 2022, support for statehood had significantly diminished compared to previous years.

Fragmentation of Pro-Independence Movement

  • The independence movement became increasingly fractured with diverging views among pro-independence parties and activists regarding negotiations with Madrid versus pursuing direct action. Ordinary citizens also showed disillusionment as participation in annual rallies declined sharply compared to earlier years.

Political Developments Post-Elections

  • After national elections in 2023 where Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialist Party failed to secure a majority but pardoned jailed leaders as a reconciliation gesture, he negotiated an amnesty deal with Catalan parties while firmly denying any discussions on an independence referendum or vote on statehood. This further contributed to declining momentum for independence efforts.

Regional Election Results (May 2024)

  • In May 2024 regional elections, anti-independence parties gained ground; Sanchez’s socialists won 42 out of 135 assembly seats while pro-independence parties saw their share drop from 49% in 2017 to just 42%. Similar trends were observed during European parliamentary elections shortly after this event.

Current Sentiment Towards Independence

Channel: Prof James Ker-Lindsay - Videos
Video description

Is Catalonia’s quest for independence now over? Catalonia's independence movement has faced significant setbacks since the failed declaration of independence in 2017. Since then, support for independence has dwindled. Recent polls show a decline from 49% to as low as 30%. However, as tens of thousands still demonstrate in favour of independence, has the independence movement really been defeated? Historically, Catalonia's distinct identity has persisted through various political changes, from medieval autonomy to suppression under Franco and regained autonomy post-1975. In 2006, it gained extra powers of self-rule./ However, after these were challenged by the Spanish Supreme Court in 2020, popular support for independence grew rapidly. This eventually resulted in a referendum and unilateral declaration of Independence in 2017. This failed disastrously. The Spanish government swiftly regained control, leading to the exile of key leaders and the suspension of Catalonia's autonomy. Since then, the movement has remained weak and divided. Moreover, the recent regional elections in 2024 saw anti-independence parties gaining ground - suggesting a “new era”, according to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. However, the strong regional identity and unresolved grievances with the Spanish government continue to fuel the desire for independence among many Catalans. While the immediate prospects for statehood appear dim, the underlying sentiment for independence endures, keeping the debate alive in Catalonia's political landscape. *MY LATEST BOOK!* Secession and State Creation: What Everyone Needs to Know Oxford University Press https://global.oup.com/academic/product/secession-and-state-creation-9780190494049 Amazon https://amzn.to/2MPY3W2 Audiobooks.com https://www.audiobooks.co.uk/audiobook/secession-and-state-creation-what-everyone-needs-to-know/637281 *SUPPORT THE CHANNEL* Hello and welcome! My name is James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look at International Relations, conflict, security, and statehood. If you like what you see, please subscribe. Even better, perhaps consider becoming a Channel Member or supporting the Channel through Patreon. Thank you! SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE http://www.youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay?sub_confirmation=1 BECOME A CHANNEL MEMBER http://www.youtube.com/c/JamesKerLindsay/join JOIN MY PATREON PAGE https://www.patreon.com/JamesKerLindsay *VIDEO CHAPTERS* 00:00 Introduction and Titles 00:44 Independence Movements and Catalonia 01:45 Catalonia: Location and Population 02:25 A Short History of Catalonia 03:32 Catalonia in Modern Spanish History 04:43 The Growth of Catalonia’s Independence Movement 06:01 Catalonia’s Declaration of Independence 07:58 The Decline of Catalonia’s Pro-Independence Movement 11:12 Is Catalonia’s Independence Effort Over? *SOURCES AND FURTHER READING* Government of Spain https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/lang/en/Paginas/index.aspx Government of Catalonia https://web.gencat.cat/en/inici/index.html 2006 Statute of Autonomy https://www.parlament.cat/document/cataleg/150259.pdf Spanish Supreme Court | 2015 Catalonia Referendum Rulinghttps://www.tribunalconstitucional.es/ResolucionesTraducidas/STC%20259%20-%202015%20%209N%20(English).pdf 2017 Declaration of Independence https://static1.ara.cat/ara/public/content/file/original/2017/1010/20/declaracio-d-independe-ncia-signada-per-jxs-i-la-cup-0a28a46.pdf *EQUIPMENT USED TO MAKE THIS VIDEO* https://kit.co/JamesKerLindsay *MAP CONTENT* https://www.themaparchive.com *DISCLAIMERS* - The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation. - Some of the links above are affiliate links. These pay a small commission if you make a purchase. This helps to support the channel and will be at no additional cost to you. #Catalonia #Spain #Independence