Debunking the IPCC's AR-6 Climate Models, Howard Hayden

Introduction to IPCC Self-Contradiction

Overview: This section provides an introduction to the concept of intellectual Jiu Jitsu and how it can be used to analyze the data and analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It also introduces terminology and concepts related to radiative forcing, greenhouse effect, pre-industrial period, and Stefan Boltzmann equation.

Radiative Forcing

• Radiative forcing is defined as the change in net downward minus upward radiating flux expressed in watts per square meter due to a change in external driver of climate change such as the change in the concentration of carbon dioxide.

• The greenhouse effect from the IPCC is 159 watts per square meter at the present time, with a radiative forcing due to doubling CO2 of 3.7 watts per square meter.

• Everything in the IPCC is referenced to the pre-industrial period of 1850 to 1890.

Heat Balance Diagram

• A heat balance diagram is used to illustrate the conservation of energy, with sunlight equal to the absorbed sunlight plus the reflected sunlight, and the net amount of absorbed sunlight equal to the amount of radiation that goes into outer space in watts per square meter.

• The heat that goes into the air into the atmosphere equals the heat leaving the atmosphere, and the heat that goes into the surface leaves the equals the heat that leaves the surface.

Greenhouse Effect

• The missing number in the heat balance diagram is the greenhouse effect, which is the numerical difference between the Surface radiation and the radiation to space.

• The greenhouse effect G is equal to 159 watts per square meter, and Sigma is the Stefan Boltzmann constant.

• The Stefan Boltzmann equation is the first example of mentioning the greenhouse effect in 31 years of activity at the IPCC.

Conservation of Energy

Overview: This section explains the conservation of energy and how it relates to the radiation that goes to outer space.

Equations

• I_n = I_out

• I_out = I_surface - G

Calculating 398 Watts/m²

• 398 Watts/m² is calculable from the surface temperature using Stefan-Boltzmann law.

• The surface temperature is 289.45 Kelvin (16.3 Celsius).

Heat Balance Charts

• Heat balance charts are not available for any year past 2021 in any IPCC assessment report.

• Challenge your climate Guru to make a heat balance chart for the future and put it in the form of a wager.

• Pick a model, any model, and pick a time anytime in the future.

• Alternatively, use the numbers from a supercomputer output and make your own heat balance drawing.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

Overview: This section discusses the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) according to the IPCC, which states that the most probable value is a temperature rise of three degrees Celsius from a doubling of CO2. It also explains Stefan Boltzmann's law and how it relates to the ECS.

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

• The IPCC states that the most probable value for the ECS is three degrees Celsius from a doubling of CO2.

• According to Stefan Boltzmann's law, if the temperature rises by three degrees, the surface must radiate 16.7 watts per square meter more than it did in pre-industrial times.

• The IPCC's very likely range for the ECS is two to five degrees Celsius, which would result in an increase of 11.1 to 28.1 watts per square meter in surface emission.

• The increase in the greenhouse effect due to CO2 doubling is 3.7 watts per square meter, which is supposed to be equal to the increase in surface radiation.

Physical Impossibility

• It is a physical impossibility for the temperature to rise by three degrees and have an increase in surface radiation of 11 to 28 watts per square meter.

• The IPCC's models do not generally refer to equilibrium, and the graphs they show are of what happens over time, not the final equilibrium.

• The bar graph at the bottom of the graph shows the total amount due to CO2, other gases, and Albedo (the reflectivity of the Earth).

• SSP 3-7.0 has a total radiating forcing of 7 watts per square meter by 2080 to 2100 with respect to 1850, which is supposedly able to block 20 watts per square meter increased radiation from the surface.

Understanding the Greenhouse Effect

Overview: This section covers the basics of the greenhouse effect and how it can cause the surface temperature to rise. It also looks at the IPCC's claims and Al Gore's iconic graph.

Greenhouse Effect Basics

• The greenhouse effect is a natural process that helps regulate the Earth's temperature.

• The IPCC claims that a minor increase in the greenhouse effect can cause the surface temperature to rise significantly.

• Model 1-1.9 shows an additional blocking of 1.9 watts per square meter and an increase in surface radiation of 7.6 watts per square meter.

Al Gore's Graph

• Al Gore's iconic graph shows the correlation between temperature and CO2 levels.

• Calculating the radiative forcing from CO2 yields a range of two to three watts per square meter, while the change in surface emission is around 30 to 40 watts per square meter.

• Climate scientists have not asked where the CO2 came from that caused the warming, or where it went to cause the temperature to decrease.

Take-Home Message

• The IPCC does not apply the Stefan Boltzmann equation to their results, so they cannot construct heat balance equations.

• To answer questions about the Milankovic Cycles and the relationship between CO2 and temperature, one must be more sophisticated than a 60 IQ.

• The take-home message is that planetary heat balance states that the energy out (radiation going into space) equals the absorbed sunlight minus the greenhouse effect.

• The radiative forcing simply adds to the greenhouse effect.

• One can use Excel or a calculator to apply the equation to different temperatures and see if the right answer is obtained.

• Finally, it is possible to be fooled by the climate crisis industry.