Trucking Market Update: We Will Likely See More Broker Shutdowns.

Market Update: Trucking Industry Insights

Overview of Current Market Conditions

• The video begins with a welcome and an introduction to the trucking industry market update, highlighting discussions on improvements in the sector.

• The presenter outlines the focus areas for the update, including authorities, diesel prices, and rates for flatbeds, reefers, and dry vans.

Carrier Authorities Analysis

• A net change of 57 carriers was reported last week; this is less drastic compared to previous weeks which saw losses of up to 600 carriers.

• Continuous net losses in carrier authorities are noted as a trend starting from early 2026.

Out of Service Orders

• Since June 25th, there have been a total of 13,430 out-of-service orders issued; January alone accounted for 232 orders.

• Texas and California lead in issuing out-of-service orders related to English language proficiency; New Jersey had none.

Diesel Prices Trends

• Diesel prices are rising; California's price is $4.99 per gallon (up by $0.11), while Oklahoma has the lowest at $3.12 (also up by over $0.11).

• National average diesel prices stand at approximately $3.64 per gallon—an increase of $0.03 since last week but down by 2.5 cents compared to last year.

Equipment Rates Overview

Flatbed Rates

• Average posted rates for flatbeds show significant variation across regions; West Coast averages at $3,395 but may not reflect actual profitability due to mileage considerations.

• The highest rate per mile for flatbeds comes from southern states at $2.76; Alabama leads in load volumes with over 5,000 loads available this week.

General Market Changes

• An overall increase in posted loads across all regions is observed except for the plain states where rates decreased.

• The South remains favorable for flatbed carriers due to high volume and better rates; conversely, the West Coast presents challenges with low pay despite higher diesel costs.

Drive Van Market Insights

Rate Comparisons

• For drive vans, Midwest shows the highest average rate per mile at $2.73; however, average posted rates hover around $800 daily.

• Illinois and Indiana are key states for load volumes while Ohio and Pennsylvania also contribute significantly.

Summary of Trends

• Similar trends emerge as seen with flatbeds: increased volumes across most regions except for a decline in Northeast rates.

• Consistent pricing remains evident when traveling to Northeast areas ($269 per mile), contrasting with fluctuating rates elsewhere.

Market Insights on Freight Rates and Regions

Overview of Regional Freight Rates

• The Midwest is identified as the best region for freight, with the highest posted loads and rates per mile.

• In contrast, the West Coast is deemed the worst region due to low volume and prices, averaging $2.37 per mile.

Reefer Rates Analysis

• The average rate for reefer loads from Midwest to Midwest stands at $87, highlighting regional profitability.

• The highest rate per mile for reefers originates from the Midwest to Northeast, averaging over $2,900. However, caution is advised due to lower rates going westward ($1.75).

Week-over-Week Volume Comparison

• Most regions experienced an increase in volume week-over-week except for the Plain States which saw a decrease in reefer volumes.

• The Midwest remains favorable with an average rate of $2.58 per mile; however, the West Coast continues to struggle with low rates and high diesel costs ($5/gallon).

Broker Dynamics and Market Challenges

• Brokers are facing challenges as shippers resist increasing rates while brokers may lose money on certain loads due to competitive pricing pressures.

• A scenario where brokers cannot sell loads at break-even points could lead to more brokers going out of business, raising concerns about non-payment risks for carriers.

Financial Caution for Carriers

• Carriers are advised to monitor broker credit scores and payment trends closely; declining scores or increasing days-to-pay may indicate financial instability among brokers.

• Reliance on brokers poses risks; if a broker fails financially after hauling a load, carriers might not receive payment unless they act quickly against their bond claims.