ICT Emini S&P 500 Review / January 03, 2023

ICT Emini S&P 500 Review / January 03, 2023

Market Analysis and Trading Strategy Overview

Anticipation of PMI Number Release

  • The speaker discusses the anticipation of the PMI number release at 9:45, expecting market movement leading to a potential sell-off.
  • Emphasizes the importance of waiting for this news rather than jumping into trades at 9:30, highlighting patience in trading.

Market Structure and Imbalances

  • Analyzes the one-hour chart, noting that it did not reach employment balance levels, indicating a breakdown after testing buy/sell liquidity.
  • Shifts focus to the 30-minute chart to identify clear imbalances and confirms a lack of upward movement above previous highs.

Fair Value Gaps and Trading Decisions

  • Discusses fair value gaps on the 15-minute chart, indicating areas where price may retrace before moving lower.
  • Highlights market behavior around key levels (e.g., 3,900), suggesting potential short positions based on observed patterns.

Institutional Order Blocks and Market Dynamics

  • Explains how certain lows can indicate institutional overflow entry points, which are critical for understanding market structure changes.
  • Introduces concepts like mean threshold and order blocks as essential tools for identifying trading opportunities.

Execution of Trades Based on Technical Analysis

  • Describes executing trades based on identified fair value gaps and bearish order blocks while emphasizing precision in trade entries.
  • Notes that successful trading requires personal engagement with charting rather than relying solely on others' analyses.

Importance of Active Participation in Trading

  • Stresses that traders must actively mark their charts to understand market dynamics better; passive approaches hinder learning.
  • Defines terms like "mean threshold" and "consequent encroachment," linking them to practical trading strategies for future mentorship discussions.

Scalping vs. Long-Term Strategies

First Trading Day Insights

Market Analysis and Initial Trades

  • The speaker discusses their trading strategy on the first day of the year, focusing on short positions taken at two fair value gaps, particularly one at 38.60, anticipating a downward trend.
  • They mention waiting for market behavior after failing to breach the 39.05 level, indicating a cautious approach to market shifts and structure changes below 38.72 and 38.73.
  • A third entry was made at the top of the orange fair value gap (38.60), with expectations of price movement towards lower levels around 38.39 and a quarter.
  • The speaker emphasizes monitoring price action on a 30-minute chart to ensure it remains below key levels; if it rises above these levels, they plan to close trades.

Key Trading Levels and Expectations

  • The importance of maintaining "heaviness" in price is highlighted; this indicates difficulty in rallying higher, which aligns with their bearish outlook.
  • They express intent to take partial profits if prices drop below 38.42.50 while also noting rejection at the anticipated resistance level of 39.20 due to daily volume balance considerations.
Video description

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trade at your own risk. The information provided here is of the nature of a general comment only and neither purports nor intends to be, specific trading advice. It has been prepared without regard to any particular person’s investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Information should not be considered as an offer or enticement to buy, sell or trade. You should seek appropriate advice from your broker, or licensed investment advisor, before taking any action. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Simulated performance results contain inherent limitations. Unlike actual performance records the results may under or over compensate for such factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses to those shown. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. If you purchase or sell Equities, Futures, Currencies or Options you may sustain a total loss of the initial margin funds and any additional funds that you deposit with your broker to establish or maintain your position. If the market moves against your position, you may be called upon by your broker to deposit a substantial amount of additional margin funds, on short notice in order to maintain your position. If you do not provide the required funds within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you may be liable for any resulting deficit in your account. Under certain market conditions, you may find it difficult or impossible to liquidate a position. This can occur, for example, when the market makes a “limit move.” The placement of contingent orders by you, such as a “stop-loss” or “stop-limit” order, will not necessarily limit your losses to the intended amounts, since market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.